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KY: 49% Paul, 42% Conway (PPP/Kos 9/11-12)

Topics: Kentucky , poll

DailyKos.com / Public Policy Polling (D)
9/11-12/10; 959 likely voters, 3.2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(DailyKos release)

Kentucky

2010 Senate
49% Paul (R), 42% Conway (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Jack Conway: 36 / 36
Rand Paul: 45 / 40

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 37 / 60
Sen. McConnell: 41 / 50
Sen. Bunning: 31 / 48

 

Comments
Field Marshal:

Considering the source, not bad for the GOP.

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Dave:

18% of African Americans for Paul. Uh oh melvin.

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Paleo:

Barring Paul putting his foot in his mouth, like Florida, I've pretty much written this one off. These are Republican-held seats anyway.

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Billy Chunge:

"Considering the source, not bad for the GOP."
Please don't even start to try and compare PPP with Rasmussen. They are a reputable pollster who actually poll races that are upcoming. They have been one of the best pollsters this cycle. How many polls has Rasmussen released during the primaries. Zero!

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Field Marshal:

I agree Billy. Rasmussen is a reputable pollster and has been one of the best pollsters this cycle. Also, how many polls has PPP released during the primaries? ZERO!

(I know PPP has released many polls during the primary but i was just throwing Billy's dumb rant back at him since Rasmussen has also released countless polls during the primary but facts seem to get in the way of his absurdity).

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vincent106:

@billychunge
What are you smoking? Ras has released a ton of primary polling. They must have polled every primary race around the country for governor or senate.

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shabby:

PPP has been running on the "right" of pretty much every competing pollster next to SUSA. If it's showing Conway at -7, I'd say Conway is certainly in striking distance

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Billy Chunge:

@vincent106 and Field Marshal
Show me some polling that Rasmussen has done for the primaries.

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Dave:

Rasmussen polls during primaries, though for whatever he doesn't usually pit the primary challengers against each other, usually just comparisons for the general election.

One exception to that rule that springs to mind is I'm almost positive he polled the Paul-Grayson race in KY.

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Georgia Joe:

If Paul is released by his Washington handlers, he will stick his foot in his mouth. The question will be how many times and will it be deep enough to choke the very conservative voters of Kentucky. Conway is a good candidate, but he is running against a very low visibility opponent. Paul is being kept to friendly audiences and limited media access. The early July joint appearance didn't work out very well for Paul so getting any thing resembling a debate scheduled hasn't been a priority for the Rand Campaign.

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Farleftandproud:

I think Conway has been an exceptional candidate. I think Sestak has ran a great campaign too. Sometimes Democrats don't want to re-nominate losers in previous elections, but if it happens, I think both have a strong future. I think Rand Paul could very well be unpopular if he is elected. I mean KY has miners unions, drug issues for high school kids, and is opposed to military intervention. I mean, if Paul doesn't fit in with the GOP platform on a variety of issues, he could be unpopular.

Senators from both parties, like to bring back federal money to their state, and if Paul is against this, I wonder just what he will be like as a senator.

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Cederico:

Don't give up on this race yet. This is just one poll...others show it is much tighter. A new internal poll for his campaign shows the race 47% - 45% Paul, Anzolene(D)has the race at 48% - 45% Paul and CNN has the race at 46% - 46%. There is no reason to write off this race!

Conway is an excellent candidate and DEMS would be mistaken to give up too quickly. His success lies in convincing Kentucky's Democratic voters to support him as the big majority of Kentucky voters identify/register as Democrats.

Paul's key to victory is painting Conway as an Obama Democrat and he is doing just that in his ad campaign.

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Field Marshal:
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BH:

Lights out boys and girls. Given the political dynamics, Paul has this race barring a national crisis or major scandal of some kind.

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Farleftandproud:

Rand Paul is opposed to federal money for drug treatment programs. I think the Conway team needs to interview Nancy Reagan via Satellite, and get her endorsement. What happened to the party that gave us the DEA and the "Just say no" campaign in the 80's? I mean pot legalization is one thing, but many young kids are abusing prescription drugs they get too easily, and Methamphetamine. Any drug dealer in KY will most definetely vote for Rand Paul. This is from the Cincinnati Enquirer:

Paul's opposition to federal funding for state and local drug enforcement initiatives could cost him votes in a region that's expected to be a key battleground in the U.S. Senate race. Paul wants to cut federal funding for undercover drug investigations and drug treatment programs, both of which are badly needed in Appalachia, a hotbed for marijuana growers and drug dealers selling prescription pills and methamphetamines.

Paul, a tea party favorite, espouses a plan that would put the onus for drug enforcement on state and local governments. His Democratic opponent, Jack Conway, favors using federal money.

"I don't think it's a real pressing issue," Paul told The Associated Press, suggesting that voters will decide who to support based on broader fiscal and social concerns.

"I think we're going to do very well in eastern Kentucky," he said. "They're socially conservative out there, so am I. Jack's not. They're fiscally conservative. I am. Jack's not. ... I think we'll swamp him."

Paul is counting on winning all of Kentucky's rural vote, including the Appalachian region, and keeping the race close in the state's two largest cities, Louisville and Lexington, where voters tend to favor Democrats. Conway, a Louisville resident, has been trying to cut into Paul's rural base by taking him to task on the drug issue.

"Rand will handcuff local sheriffs trying to combat the drug epidemic, and I will make sure Kentucky's law enforcement has the tools they need to protect our families," Conway said. "That's my record as attorney general, and that's what I'll do in Washington."

Conway said Kentucky, a small state suffering from budget cuts, doesn't have the financial resources to take on drug traffickers without federal help. Paul said the only time federal involvement is warranted is when drugs are crossing state or national borders.

Ed Schemelya, point man in the federal government's marijuana eradication program in the central Appalachians, said cutting off federal funding would embolden drug traffickers in the region.

"It would be impossible to stop them without federal assistance, because of the dire straights that these economies are in," Schemelya said.

Schemelya heads a law enforcement cooperative that confiscated some $2 billion worth of marijuana in the Appalachians last year, most of it grown on remote mountainsides.

Paul hasn't been shy about speaking his mind on the drug enforcement issue, telling local leaders during a political forum last month that involving Washington in the matter leads to waste. "I think issues like drug use and abuse are best dealt with at the local level," he said.

But Paul hasn't said where state and local governments would get the money needed to fund the drug efforts.

University of Louisville political scientist Laurie Rhodebeck said Paul clearly believes that voters favor cutting government spending, even at the expense of drug enforcement initiatives.

"Obviously, it's not as big an issue as joblessness and arguably not as big as agricultural subsidies, but different parts of every state have regionally specific concerns, and the drug problem looms large in eastern Kentucky," Rhodebeck said. "Paul's response that these matters should be dealt with locally, well, that's a problematic suggestion if there's not enough money locally to handle it."

Shortly after Conway became attorney general in 2008, he created a task force to help coordinate local, state and federal efforts to curb prescription pill trafficking. Last year, that task force was part of the largest prescription pill bust in Kentucky history, with more than 500 people charged for their role in a drug pipeline extending from Florida to Kentucky.

Conway also is a staunch advocate for Operation UNITE, a federal initiative that provides uncover narcotics investigations and treatment programs for addicts. The initiative, created by Republican Congressman Hal Rogers, is largely funded by budget earmarks, which Paul staunchly opposes.

Operation UNITE, which this year received $4.3 million in federal funds and $2 million in state funds, has arrested nearly 3,500 traffickers over the past five years and has confiscated nearly 100,000 pills over the same period, said Dale Morton, a spokesman for the initiative.

Paul said he doesn't believe his resistance to Operation UNITE will be his political undoing.

"I don't think most people in Kentucky have heard of it," he said.

Cinnamond-Rose has, and she supports the group. While other issues will weigh into her decision, she said she's troubled that Paul wants to defund the initiative.

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BH:

FL&P, I certainly don't think you should be banned from posting the occassional screed, but whose mind do you think you are really changing when you and Melvin post reams of Dem. talking points? The same question goes to the faitful on the other side of the political isle.

No biggie, just asking.

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tjampel:

BH:

"FL&P, I certainly don't think you should be banned from posting the occassional screed, but whose mind do you think you are really changing when you and Melvin post reams of Dem. talking points? The same question goes to the faitful on the other side of the political isle.

No biggie, just asking."

He's stating what he truly believes. The points made by right-wingers here look to me like Republican talking points or maybe Limbaugh talking points. What matters is what the poster truly believes. If he believes these things he or she has every reason and right to use them. And you can spend time knocking each and every one of them down too if you wish. That's what debate is. You don't genuinely think your opponents are going to take positions you consider reasonable do you? I've never seen FM take a position on a major issue that I consider reasonable.

Yeah...I think he goes overboard at at times and also makes generalizations that may not be true...and so do many right wingers ...about liberals and Dems.

True, there's no chance of anyone here changing anyone else's mind. This isn't really a debate between open minded folks. So you're right about that.

Most of us come here because we personally care about the direction of the country; we care about polls because they're an indicia of how the electorate is thinking, and what we can expect in November. We seek validation of our own beliefs because this strengthens whatever hope or fear or object of focus we may have.

It's natural that each of us try to spin the results; we're all biased; those who try to sound completely objective come off sounding inauthentic to me, at least. We do it partly to look for concurrence or validation, partly to support our own internal narrative that's playing out, partly to show off to others who smart we are or how prescient we are and/or how stupid or misinformed they are (so we feel better than someone else), partly to have a real dialog...to understand something better or explain about something we know which may be of use to others, or...just be nasty, snide, etc.

FarLeft never posts for the latter reason, nor, I feel, does he ever post to show off. He posts because he feels strongly about each race and wants validation regarding his interpretation of the polls. He likes to weave his own feelings into these posts; he's not alone in that.

I like and respect that fact...that he's authentic in what he says. It may not be my personal style but I feel I know him better through his comments than most others who post here.

Take a right wing poster here...I think Seg is just as negative about Dems as FarLeft is about Repubs, just in a more refined and disciplined way. I think the statements he makes about various subjects are just as wrong as you may think FarLeft's are; but of course these are his real beliefs and he has a right to make them and he, in fact, should do it.

It's helpful to me to know what's in the minds of my opponents; and, while I don't change my mind, some of the things Seg has stated, for example, have helped me better understand why you guys have such contempt for Democratic politicians and policies, and what your own vision is for benefitting all Americans. I hope that you can see Far Left in that regard. Dems have a vision; you hate it, but it's coherent and it makes sense to us. And it's possible to be intelligent and be a conservative...or a liberal...or libertarian (which I dabbled in for a number of years)

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Aaron_in_TX:

Good post, TJ. Especially this:

"True, there's no chance of anyone here changing anyone else's mind. This isn't really a debate between open minded folks........We seek validation of our own beliefs because this strengthens whatever hope or fear or object of focus we may have."

So true...

I don't know why it's so hard for people to just ignore posters they don't like. I tend to skim FarLeft's and Melvin's posts not because I dislike them but because Melvin is repetitive and FarLeft is a lot of times off topic. I mainly look and see if they address me directly..if not I have a good idea what they're saying just skimming it.

But I see no reason they need to be insulted continuously for what they say. Keep it up, Melvin and FarLeft!

I completely ignore some of the right-wing commenters I feel have made unexcusable comments in the past. They can do the same for Melvin and FarLeft.

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MikeyA:

"But I see no reason they need to be insulted continuously for what they say. Keep it up, Melvin and FarLeft!

I completely ignore some of the right-wing commenters I feel have made unexcusable comments in the past. They can do the same for Melvin and FarLeft."

You say that because you're a racist.

There I have now just repeated everything Melvin posts and 60% of what FLAP posts. Are you going to ignore me or encourage me to post more?

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Field Marshal:

LOL.

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Bukama:

Good post TJ.

But I would take issue with one point. I lurked here for a while, and I think there our undoubtedly hundreds (if not thousands) of readers for every person who posts here. And there is an opportunityto put out good, well-reasoned arguments out there that could influence many people's thinking.

And I agree, Melvin and FLAP, as long as they are not abusive (and FLAP almost never is abusive, imho) have every right to post. I find them entertaining. I wish TeaParty Rules would come back more often too. This site is sort of like being at an all-American rally, with representatives of most every stripe of political thinking voicing their opinions. It's convenient that way.

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Farleftandproud:

"I think Seg is just as negative about Dems as FarLeft is about Repubs, just in a more refined and disciplined way. I think the statements he makes about various subjects are just as wrong as you may think FarLeft's are; but of course these are his real beliefs and he has a right to make them and he, in fact, should do it. "

First off my statement about Rand Paul was backed up by the long article I found from a Cincy Newspaper, that is pretty mainstream.

Second of all, I am not always negative about all Republicans as I am about some of the ones like Paul, Angle and now O'Donnell in DE. I think their propsed policies are untested, and if they are as anti-government as they claim, they will make George W. Bush look like a liberal in comparison.

In a perfect world, I would prefer more Democrats like Feingold, and more Republicans like Castle or Olympia Snowe. I think you need some government regulation just to pay for the schools and infrastructure, and I think that the very rich can pay a fairer share of taxes than they do.

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