SurveyUSA for WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass
7/27-29/10; 568 likely voters, 4.2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
51% Paul (R), 43% Conway (D) (chart)
Jack Conway is pro Obamacare and pro cap and tax. That's all Kentucky voters need to know.
Posted on August 2, 2010 10:43 AM
It's probably nothing but I notice that the margin of error is such that Rand Paul could lose on the extreme end. Leaving yourself a little wiggle room WHAS now that 538's Nate Silver is rating pollsters? ;)
Posted on August 2, 2010 10:47 AM
"Jack Conway is... pro cap and tax. That's all Kentucky voters need to know."
Sorry, nice try. Conway is against cap and trade. It's an untenable position for any politician in this state.
Posted on August 2, 2010 11:20 AM
Of course he says that now, but look at what he said during the primary.
Posted on August 2, 2010 11:23 AM
I heard him debate Mongiardo and he very specifically stated that he opposed cap and trade. So, I go by my ears and his current position.
Posted on August 2, 2010 11:32 AM
It would be a travesty for Conway to lose. I didn't realize that KY does still have more Democratic support than many other states in the South, but the independents seem to go 2-1 Republican.
Posted on August 2, 2010 12:30 PM
With the exception of his own internal poll, Conway has a very clear ceiling at around 44%. And now that the negative coverage of Rand Paul has simmered I just don't see Conway winning this race.
Posted on August 2, 2010 1:36 PM
I'd like to know what Ads are currently up. I think the only way to beat Paul is to stay negative early and often. Not sure Conway can afford it and not sure to what extent DSCC is going to come in with their millions to try to soften up Paul at this early stage.
It seems like Conway was able to get close to Paul only through Paul's gaffes. Since then, I'm not certain that Conway's been spending money on negative Ads and they're just keeping the race in stasis or if he's planning his media strategy for a more concentrated strike later in the game, when it will resonate more. If he's got limited resources and shoots his wad now Paul will have too much time to claw his way back up.
Reid can go neg now and just keep at it till November; he's got the bucks.
Lastly, I'd like to know what Paul's been putting out there as well. Is he up and running or are both candidates waiting a bit. The numbers have moved slightly back towards Paul but that's not surprising, since negative publicity is most effective when it's recent. It fades.
Posted on August 2, 2010 2:37 PM
Rand Paul has this one in the bag as long as he doesn't say anything else completely off the wall between now and November. He is a Republican running in a Republican year in a solidly red state. He wins by at least 6% as long as he keeps himself under control.
Posted on August 2, 2010 6:12 PM
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