February 25, 2008

Last week's "Outliers"

(Left over from last week due to a weekend spent at a family gathering...)

Chris Ison and Rob Daves look closely at the dearth of pre-caucus polling in Minnesota and the state of pre-election surveys generally -- well worth a click.

John Diaz speculates on "why the polls are so wrong."

Kathy Frankovic explores lessons learned about how polls are "being used and reported this year," including qualms about aggregating polls as we do here.

Frank Newport reports that Democrats now have an 8-point advantage on party identification and explores religion as a predictor of individual politics.

Jennifer Agiesta digs into the exit polls to examine subgroup variation in Democrats satisfaction with their candidates.

Mark Mellman (writing before the Wisconsin primary) sees potential for Barack Obama in the open primaries in Wisconsin, Ohio and Texas "even while the basic demography may favor Clinton."

Jay Cost sees evidence of momentum in the Democratic race.

Brian Schaffner uses poll averages to project March 4th delegates

Carl Bialik computes the odds of Clinton's "lucky break" in Alabama.

23/6 News has some radical suggestions to improve exit polling (via Edison).

8

-- Mark Blumenthal

February 25, 2008 in Miscellanous, The 2008 Race

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