Pollster.com

I agree. The revolt is only among independents and conservatives. Nothing to worry about.

The drop among pure independents doesn't seem that bad. They started out in the low 50s, now they're in the mid to high 40s. It's the moderate and conservative republicans where the drop has been 20-30 points.

Aaron, you're wrong. Independent support didn't start out in the "low fifties." It started out in the low SIXTIES, as you can see in the spreadsheet Blumenthal linked to. Now it's in the high 40's. Don't underestimate his fall among independents.

I want to tell my fellow progressives to cut out the constant negativity about Obama. He is still being put on a pedestal to liberals and I think there are a lot of naive progressives out there. Obama never said he would end defense of marriage act, pass tougher gun laws, never was a critic of the death penalty and most of all opposed Iraq, not Afghanistan. I like to remind progressives that Obama ran for president thinking he may not win. I would like to remind progressives that change is gradual at the federal level; Oregon, VT and Mass can implement more progressive policies at the state level; states like Arkansas and Missouri, a majority of people are not welcoming to liberal ideas. Lets stand behind the president and realize that if we turn our backs on him, we'll regret it if he isn't re-elected and if Democrats lose a lot of seats in the house and senate. Obama needs our support! For those progressives from a conservative district, hound your senator and congress people and for those from a liberal district, continue to help elect local progressives. Go to a more conservative district that is near you and help get more Democrats and progressives elected. Obama has a lot on his plate and he needs our support.

While I think that this is another example of over-polling, the key lessons relate to how the President and the Democrats can use the support in the various categories this November. It is clear that they will need to get younger voters and females out to the polls to retain their majorities in the mid-term elections. What comes out of the final version of health care (and how it is promoted this year), in addition to the levels to which Democrats are prepared to contest Cap and Trade and Financial reform are critical.

Democrats will keep majorities. It would be unlikely for the GOP to win 40 seats without losing any seats. In the senate there are 8 competitive races held by a Democrat. At the worst Democrats would have a 4 seat majority. Guilliani isn't running in NY but Byron Dorgan is stepping down in ND. That seat would definetely go to Republicans. It would not be great, but would wake up a lot of people to make 2012 a rebound year for Obama's re-election. The GOP thought they could reclaim America in 1994 and each election after that, their popularity of contract with America became more and more discredited. If history repeats itself, the GOP's bubble would burst in a short time. Bi-partisanship went out the window after 1994. Each side tries to tear the other down and make issues that most of us would never imagine as politicial issues and exploits each other. That is why our country has been declining.

"I want to tell my fellow progressives to cut out the constant negativity about Obama."

It'd help if he didn't consistently underperform and backtrack on promises.

"Lets stand behind the president and realize that if we turn our backs on him, we'll regret it if he isn't re-elected and if Democrats lose a lot of seats in the house and senate."

So far it seems like we'll regret turning our back because that shiv is kind of dull and rusty. Seriously, if Obama wants liberal support he could maybe think about not *completely* screwing up every liberal goal. Maybe?

If does choose to continue his current path I sincerely hope the base turns on him viciously, he will have thoroughly deserved it.

I predict that Pelosi will be speaker until 2014. The GOP will come close in the next election but fail to win enough seats. I think the economy will turn around with an attempt to balance the budget and hopefully bringing a de-escalation to Afghanistan and other foreign wars. By 2012 Obama would win a close re-election and Democrats hold the senate and congress by a thread and 2014 will be the big Republican year.

"aaron, you're wrong. Independent support didn't start out in the "low fifties." It started out in the low SIXTIES, as you can see in the spreadsheet Blumenthal linked to. Now it's in the high 40's. Don't underestimate his fall among independents."

Are you and I looking at the same spreadsheet? According to the linked spreadsheet, "pure independent" approval was at 47 in the week Jan 19-25 2009. It hit 54 during Feb 2-8. The high was 61 during May 4-10, from which it quickly dropped. The latest week, Dec 28 - Jan 3 2010, it was at 45. This is within the category "party id and ideology" that has 6 variations.

Perhaps you're referring to the more vague "independent" column within the "party id" category with only 3 variations, which did start in the low 60s and was at 47 the most recent week.

There is a discrepancy between the two and it isn't clear why. But the rate of decline of "independent" seems similar to the rate of decline among "whites" and "lib/mod republicans." White independents underperformed Obama's general election numbers by several points, so it makes sense this group would be more quick to register a decline.

I tend to think that "independents" are not really that independent, only a fraction of them are truly are. And then some are Ron Paul people or Ralph Nader people that don't identify with D's or R's. But most lean one way or the other and since democrats absorbed a lot of moderates the past few years they are much more likely to lean republican. IMO the classification "independent" is far too vague and should be used sparingly.

@Aaron:

The column labeled "independent" under "ideology" in the Gallup spreadsheet includes all who identify themselves as "independent" on the first party identification question that asks simply, "in politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent?"

The column labeled "pure independent" under "party ID and ideology" includes only those independents that do not lean to either party on a follow up question: "As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"

According to this table posted by Gallup (based on the USA Today Gallup polls, not the Gallup Daily tracking) the larger non-leaning independent category averaged 36% of adults during 2009.

According to data shared with me by Gallup for this column (based on the Gallup Daily tracking), the "pure independent" category was 10% of adults in February and 13% of adults in December.

Pollsters typically report cross-tab results based on the larger definition of independents because the group yields larger number of interviews for analysis. Many also prefer to omit the follow-up question to save time. However, considerable academic research shows that partisan leaners on the follow-up question typically vote like partisans on the initial question, and the massive sample sizes in the Gallup Daily tracking allow more than enough cases for analysis.

So yes, to your point, nearly two thirds of those typically classified as "independent" in surveys are "leaners" who rarely, if ever, defect from the party they lean to.

One other note: I'm not sure if what kingsbridge77 meant by his comment, but I was not arguing in the column that Obama has "nothing to worry about" in the job approval data, only that among his worries, declining approval among liberal Democrats is less of a worry that declining approval among voters in the middle of the political spectrum.

Progressives need to keep in mind that people who call themselves progressive or liberal are about 23 percent of the population compared to those who consider themselves conservative which is about 39-40. If you don't believe me, google it. That would leave 37 percent who are either apolitical, moderate or who really haven't discovered what political ideology best represents them. As for campaign promises no politician ever keeps all of them. Lets face it, Obama has had 2 wars, a failed healthcare system, a major recession and a huge deficit that was clearly pinned on the 8 years of Bush. If we expect too much too soon, he'll lose his base. As for minority voters, Obama can't do anymore for minority groups, than a White democratic president could. He is only human. When you are getting impatient with Obama just picture what a president Palin, President Huckabee, President Gingrich, President Michelle Bachmann, President Jeb Bush or a president Sam Brownback would be like. Just imagine. We have to be thankful for what we have and continue to show up for midterms, local and presidential races. If some Democrats aren't doing their job and being too conservative we can challenge them in primaries. To my fellow progressives: What we have now with Pelosi, Harry Reid and President Obama is the best leadership our country has had in years. It isn't perfect and lets face it, America will never be a social democracy like Canada or France. We have to realize that this is a nation that religion and neo-capitalism prevail in much of the country. Lets not give up and lets keep up the fight against politicians who have failed the American people.