Archive:
Likely Voters
March 25, 2008
Update: In the comments, Chris G argues that I am "way off" to conclude that "there has been far more stability than change in the national Obama-Clinton vote preference since Super Tuesday." He writes: [T]hat simply does not follow from...March 02, 2008
The Columbus Dispatch released a mail-in survey of registered Democrats and Republicans in Ohio this morning. We have chosen not to include that survey in our chart for the Ohio primary because the Dispatch made the odd choice of sampling...February 26, 2008
A few comments on our post of the new SurveyUSA Texas poll raised two questions worthy of further discussion. First, reader s.b. notes: [W]ith an automated survey, if its in English, they aren't sampling spanish only or mostly spanish speakers....February 16, 2008
Not surprisingly, the three new Texas polls we posted yesterday provoked quite a bit of discussion. We have three polls showing very different results for the Democrats, but much more consistency for the Republicans. How can that be? First, a...February 08, 2008
In response to the dialogue we've been having about the Gallup Daily tracking survey (here and here), Gallup's editor-in-chief Frank Newport sent the following response. Say what you will about Gallup, they are consistently among the most transparent and responsive...February 08, 2008
While I was finishing my National Journal column late yesterday afternoon, Gallup posted a longer than usual Gallup Daily update that answers most of the questions we asked here yesterday. It is a must read for those closely following the...February 07, 2008
In response to a reader's question about the Gallup Daily survey, I left a comment last night that was not correct. It concerned the screen that Gallup applies to the results on the Democratic and Republican presidential primary contest. I...February 04, 2008
Over the last 48 hours we have had an avalanche of new polls,** and given the discussion both in our comments section and elsewhere across the blogosphere, everyone seems unsure of what to make of the results and what they...January 29, 2008
One note on early voting and the Florida Republican primary. Charles Franklin’s excellent “endgame” summary shows a roughly eight point drop in Rudy Giuliani’s support since December. But the Giuliani campaign sees some hope in early voting. As Newsday reports:...January 25, 2008
We've had quite a bit of discussion today in the comments section about the wide variation in results from the South Carolina polls. Reader Ciccina noticed some "fascinating" differences in the percentages reported as undecided, differences that lead reader Joshua...January 24, 2008
My National Journal column, in which I revisit the issue of the primary voting screens used in national surveys, is now online....January 14, 2008
One interesting footnote to the angst over New Hampshire: After email and comments on what went wrong in the Granite State, the question I've received most often over the last week is, "why so few polls in Nevada?" Today, after...December 28, 2007
Here are some additional details on the new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll in Iowa. The last Times/Bloomberg poll in September drew a sample of "caucus voters" that represented a much larger slice of the Iowa population than other polls. The...December 21, 2007
Notice the deluge of polls from Iowa and New Hampshire the last few days? It has been pretty hard to miss. We have seen six new Iowa polls in the last three days. Have we reached the point where, as...December 21, 2007
One quick note about the new Gallup poll from New Hampshire that we linked to a few moments ago (see Gallup's releases on the Democratic & Republican samples). As the Gallup release indicates, it is based on their well-known but...December 19, 2007
For today's puzzle, we have two new polls in Iowa, one from the ABC News/Washington Post partnership and another from the public relations firm InsiderAdvantage. The ABC/Post poll shows both Obama (at 33%) and Clinton (at 29%) significantly ahead of...December 12, 2007
It is time -- actually long past time -- to summarize the returns from the Pollster.com "Disclosure Project." Back in September I declared my intent to request disclosure of key methodological details from pollsters doing surveys in Iowa, New Hampshire,...November 15, 2007
I have been focusing heavily on the Iowa caucuses, both our Disclosure Project started with polls there and because the competition, particularly on the Democratic side, is so intense. With a Democratic debate in Nevada tonight, we have had...October 18, 2007
While pondering some new poll results from Iowa last night, MyDD's Jon Singer asked some good questions: How do you come up with a turnout model when you don't know what day the caucuses are going to be held?...September 24, 2007
Over the last few months I have written a series of posts that examined the remarkably limited methodological information released about pre-election polls in the early presidential primary states (here, here and here, plus related items here). The gist...August 31, 2007
Following up on yesterday's post, in which I speculated - wrongly, as it turns out -- about the incidence of eligible adults selected by the American Research Group (ARG) as likely caucus goers for their most recent surveys of...August 30, 2007
So today we have another installment in that pollster's nightmare known as the Iowa caucuses: Two new polls of "likely Democratic caucus goers" conducted over the last ten days that show very different results. The American Research Group (ARG)...August 09, 2007
A few additional notes on the poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers from the University of Iowa that we linked to earlier, based on information provided via email by U. of Iowa Assoc. Prof. David Redlawski: First, the survey used...August 09, 2007
Gallup Guru Frank Newport followed up on the discussion here and elsewhere about "possible differences between broad samples of voters and likely voters" when Gallup asks about the 2008 party nomination contests on national surveys. His conclusion: [O]ur analysis...August 08, 2007
It was probably Murphy's Law. Within hours of my posting a review of the sorry state of disclosure of early primary poll methodology, ABC News and The Washington Post released a new survey of likely caucus goers in Iowa...August 03, 2007
I want to pick up where I left off on Tuesday, when I wrote about the way national surveys screen for primary voters. How well have the pollsters in early primary states done in disclosing how tightly they "screen"...July 31, 2007
The questions we seem to get most often here at Pollster, either in the comments or via email, concern the variability we see in the presidential primary polls, especially in the early primary states. Why is pollster A showing...July 27, 2007
National GOP Contest: Why are ABC/Post & Rasmussen So Different?
A suggestion from alert reader and frequent commenter Andrew: I write to suggest that you analyze the huge discrepancy between the latest Rasmussen and Washington Post/ABC polls. I'm talking about the Republican nomination. Rasmussen says Thompson is up by...October 10, 2006
Today's flood of new national surveys provides enough raw material for a week's worth of blog posts. The new surveys are from ABC News/Washington Post, CBS/NY Times, CNN/ORC and USAToday/Gallup, plus one more from Newsweek released over the weekend. I...October 09, 2006
Not quite two weeks ago, I wrote about a survey of Indiana's 8th Congressional District conducted by for the Evansville Courier & Press by Indiana State University's Sociology and Research Lab. Of the registered voters that responded to to that...October 01, 2006
Editor's Note: This post inaugurates a new feature on Pollster, our "Guest Pollster's Corner." We hope this new forum will provide opportunity for professional pollsters of all stripes -- media and campaign; Democrat, Republican and non-partisan -- to occasionally share their own...September 26, 2006
Two recent polls provide case studies in how pollsters determine the demographics of "likely voters," especially the gender breakdown. The answer is not as simple as you might imagine, although when it comes to gender, some public pollsters show a...September 20, 2006
Our update to the Slate Election Scorecard yesterday tries to put the results for the generic congressional vote from the USA Today/Gallup survey into some perspective. It also reintroduces the controversy over likely voter models in general with specfic attention...September 13, 2006
A quick update on last night's Republican Senate primary in Rhode Island. Incumbent Senator Lincoln Chafee defeated challenger Stephen Laffey by an eight percentage point margin (53.6% to 46.4%). So in the battle of the polls -- described in my...September 11, 2006
My last post involved what appears to be an example of true push polling in tomorrow's Republican Senate primary in Rhode Island. Although I nearly missed it in the chaos of Pollster's debut, two true surveys in that contest...August 09, 2006
The nearly final 3.6% margin by which Ned Lamont defeated Joe Lieberman in yesterday's Connecticut Senate Primary (with 98% of precincts counted, Lamont leads 51.8% to 48.2%) was certainly closer than the margins on the final public polls. The two...August 08, 2006
For those waiting on the results of the today's Connecticut primary, here is a cautionary tale about the limits of polling in a primary election. Four years ago this week, I learned a lesson the hard way about what...
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08 STATEWIDE PRIMARIES
US
Dem,
Rep
Upcoming
Kentucky (5/20)
Oregon (5/20)
Puerto Rico (6/1)
Montana (6/3)
South Dakota (6/3)
2008 POLL DATA
Pres General Election:
McCain vs
US: Clinton, Obama
AL: Clinton, Obama
AK: Clinton, Obama
AZ: Clinton, Obama
AR: Clinton, Obama
CA: Clinton, Obama
CO: Clinton, Obama
CT: Clinton, Obama
DE: Clinton, Obama
FL: Clinton, Obama
GA: Clinton, Obama
HI: Clinton, Obama
ID: Clinton, Obama
IL: Clinton, Obama
IN: Clinton, Obama
IA: Clinton, Obama
KS: Clinton, Obama
KY: Clinton, Obama
LA: Clinton, Obama
ME: Clinton, Obama
MD: Clinton, Obama
MA: Clinton, Obama
MI: Clinton, Obama
MN: Clinton, Obama
MS: Clinton, Obama
MO: Clinton, Obama
MT: Clinton, Obama
NE: Clinton, Obama
NV: Clinton, Obama
NH: Clinton, Obama
NJ: Clinton, Obama
NM: Clinton, Obama
NY: Clinton, Obama
NC: Clinton, Obama
ND: Clinton, Obama
OH: Clinton, Obama
OK: Clinton, Obama
OR: Clinton, Obama
PA: Clinton, Obama
RI: Clinton, Obama
SC: Clinton, Obama
SD: Clinton, Obama
TN: Clinton, Obama
TX: Clinton, Obama
UT: Clinton, Obama
VT: Clinton, Obama
VA: Clinton, Obama
WA: Clinton, Obama
WV: Clinton, Obama
WI: Clinton, Obama
WY: Clinton, Obama
Sen General Election:
Alaska
Colorado
Louisiana
Maine
Minnesota
Mississippi (Special)
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Mexico (Pearce)
New Mexico (Wilson)
North Carolina
Texas
Virginia
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Washington Post: Behind the Numbers
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