First, here's a quick primer on hurricanes. According to climatologists, hurricanes can release an amount of energy in one day equal to all of the electricity generated across the globe in 200 days. Hurricanes also keep building as long as they keep getting energy from warm water. Hurricanes strengthen via the temperature of the water: the hotter the water, the more strength it gains. But if a hurricane moves over land or colder water, it starts to fizzle out. Just like climatological hurricanes, an electoral hurricane is fed by an energy source. In politics this energy source is usually voter anger and frustration with the status quo. The Tea Party movement is one byproduct of this energy (to further this analogy, wind and rain are by-products of regular hurricanes). So the question is will this political hurricane continue to feed off the warm water of voter anger, or will those waters cool a bit as we get closer to shore (Election Day)? To judge, let's look at how this storm has intensified over the last 200 days.

We examined five key measures of voter anger: the percentage of voters who say the country is on the "wrong track," the President's disapproval rating, Congressional disapproval rating, the Generic Congressional ballot share for the party out of power (GOP) and the Party ID for the out-of-power party (GOP). All of these are negative measures for Democrats; that is, the higher the number the worse for the Democratic Party. (All data is from Pollster.com monthly averages for registered voters.) We then simply calculated the sum of these negative measures, which we will call--trumpets please--the LCG Voter Anger Index.

As you will note from the table below, the Voter Anger Index score in February of this year was 246. In May it rose to 250 and in August it stood at 259. In the last 90 days it has risen 9 points. The lesson here is not just that anger is high, it is that it is increasing with each passing day/week/month. The water temperature is not cooling; instead, it is getting warmer and feeding the storm. If it increases another 20 points by Election Day, the result would be catastrophic for the Democratic Party. We are talking about a 50 - 60 seat loss in the House and loss of the Senate.

When we look at this from a historical perspective, we see that the anger level in February was already equal to 1994. In August of this year the Voter Anger Index was a full 14 points (or 6%) higher than it was in November of 1994. It is also important to note that this index is based on registered voters. Our assumption is that voter anger is even higher among likely voters and the measures we've seen--like the generic ballot--do suggest that.

Hurricanes are named. We all remember Katrina. For really destructive storms, the World Meteorological Organization sometimes takes names off the list. People don't want to see the name again. Democrats might soon want to have this year's election removed from the history books as well.

Current Political Environment

There is no doubt that the White House is now fully engaged in the mid-term elections. The question will be whether this is too little, too late. Real world events have a way of either complementing or distorting/diminishing the President's message as his party tries to hold Congress. We are getting some key month's end economic data this week and it will impact voter attitudes. Here are some observations on the current political milieu:

1. The "pledge" is a winner for the GOP if it does no harm. The pledge is important for Republicans because of the signal it sends to voters, not because of any specific policy agenda item. If voters have a neutral to slightly positive impression of the pledge it will have done its job. The goal of the pledge was to help clarify the GOP brand and toward that end we think it generally works. On the other hand, don't expect any big boost for Republican candidates as a result of the unveiling.

2. The focus on Christine O'Donnell's controversial comments may doom her candidacy in DE but have little effect on the GOP as a whole. This is all about her personally and there will be little residual impact on Republicans elsewhere or the Tea Party.

3. There has been a substantive drop in Obama's approval rating that is reflected in perceptions of his ability to handle issues. The recent Politico/GWU/Battleground poll asked who voters thought would be better in handling certain issues: Obama or Republicans in Congress. On turning around the economy, 49% chose The GOP (and only 41% Obama) and on creating jobs, 51% picked Republicans in Congress while only 40% chose Obama.

4. The economy remains the number one issue but likely voters are being driven by two secondary but potent issues: 1) perceptions that the stimulus (and TARP) was a government handout and a failure and 2) that the healthcare reform law was an example of too much government intrusion and over-reach. While some in Washington still find it difficult to believe, anger over the deficit and spending in general is what is driving the likely midterm voter and it is a powerful and emotional issue.

5. On the economy, the political problem continues to be one of unmet expectations. People expected things to get better more quickly than they have. The country lost 7.6 million jobs since the start of the recession in December of 2007, but we have only recently begun adding jobs over the last few months (and at an awfully slow rate). It will likely take years to add back those jobs. Similarly, household net worth has recovered only four percentage points of the 21% lost according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. The problem was that people expected things to get better much, much faster. That has hurt Obama and Democrats as much as anything.

Thanks again to John Zirinsky and Peter Ventimiglia for their insights and contributions. For real-time reactions to events and more thoughts on the public opinion environment, please follow us on Twitter @lcgpolling.

Scott Brown's victory on January 19th cemented what Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie started in November of 2009 and signaled the start of this terrible run. A look at the Pew Research Center's polling on the news stories "most closely followed" really tells the story. From February through April the most closely watched news story in the country was health care reform (the economy was in second place). The battle for health care reform represents the first splintering of the Obama coalition, as Independents and swing voters began to move away from Democrats and the President. The issue was divisive and it served to energize the GOP base (and fuel the Tea Party movement), creating the intensity gap that we see today: Republicans are almost twice as energized about the upcoming elections as Democrats. A Kaiser Family Foundation poll in August showed that only 43% of Americans had a favorable view of health care reform, while 45% had an unfavorable perspective.

The period from May through July was dominated by the Gulf oil leak story. Political historians may look back at this time as the moment when Democrats lost the midterm election. The oil leak dominated headlines for an incredibly sustained period; it was the dominant news story for nearly three months. From a political perspective it did two things: 1) it signaled to voters that President Obama and the administration were not as competent as previously thought and 2) it took POTUS and the Democrats off-message for 90 days. The White House political apparatus is loath to admit this, but the Gulf oil leak severely damaged the President and his agenda. Every day that the President and Democrats were not talking about the economy was a lost day, and for three months the oil leak ensured that they couldn't address the issue that would be most important to voters in November.

While the oil leak was still the most closely monitored story in America in early August, the capping of the leak changed things instantaneously. In the absence of the leak story, the economy became the most covered and watched story in America in mid- to late-August. According to Pew's latest poll, 43% of Americans said they were "very closely" following stories about the economy (the Iraq troop withdrawal, immigration and Hurricane Earl were other issues being closely observed). Even more importantly, the recent news on the economy has been almost entirely bad. In one of the worst political branding exercises since "Mission Accomplished," the Obama Administration decided to call this the "Recovery Summer." But the economy fizzled and consumer confidence dropped. In the latest NBC/WSJ poll, 65% of voters say that America is in a state of decline. In September of 2009, 47% of voters thought that during the next 12 months the economy would get better. In the latest poll, only 26% say that.

The following is our up-to-the-minute take on the current political environment:

• Democrats (and the New York Times) are misreading the electorate again if they think they can make John Boehner into a boogeyman for this election. Most voters have no idea who John Boehner is and it is unlikely that he becomes a factor in this election. The man is simply not a lightning rod. This is not 1996 and Boehner is not Gingrich. Speaking of which...
• Newt Gingrich's Obama/Kenya comments are an embarrassment for the GOP and exactly what the party does not need at this time. It suggests again that that if the Republicans retake the house it will be because of massive rejection of Democratic policies rather than an attraction to the GOP.
• Obama's coalition is fractured because Independents have lost faith in the President. In October 2009, the President had a 54% approval rating among Independent voters. Today it stands at 39.2% in Pollster.com's latest average of media polls. That is an astounding 14 point drop in less than a year.
• Ignore polls showing the President's approval rating in the 45-47% range. In reality, Obama's approval rating with the voters who will be counted is much lower. A look at Gallup's latest poll on the President's approval rating suggests that his rating is artificially bolstered by the 18-29 age segment (he has a 61% approval rating among this group). But the President's rating with 30-49 year olds is 44%, it's at 43% among 50-64 year olds, and among those over 65 years of age it is only 38%. We are not discounting young voters, but when you consider those most likely to vote in a mid-term election (18-29 year olds are far less likely to vote in a non-Presidential year), the President's approval rating effectively drops to 41-42%. This is hugely problematic for Democrats.
• There is some good news for Democrats: Obama is finally in campaign mode. The White House is now committed to talking jobs and the economy 24/7. Obama's visit yesterday with families in Fairfax, VA was a smart--and necessary--move. The White House had a good week driving its economic message, but the September economic report is its last real chance to make an argument that things are improving, and the report is unlikely to be good enough. Yesterday's front page WSJ story on global uncertainty in the face of a waning economic recovery will further feed voter anxiety.
• The problem for Democrats is that this isn't just about the economy. The election frame is also about the appropriate size and role of government. There has been a real reaction against this administration's expansion of the size of government in addition to a general concern about its ability to do something to "fix" the economy. To understand the momentum in 2010, you only need to look at these two charts from a recent Gallup poll that compares the importance of this election's key issues and which party is more trusted. Other than a virtual tie on health care and corruption, Republicans are now more trusted by the electorate on every key issue. Contrast this with 2006, when Democrats held every advantage, including core Republican issues like terrorism and "moral standards."
• Today is the last major primary day of this cycle and the races in Delaware and New Hampshire are the most closely watched. Despite the latest poll showing O'Donnell with a slight lead over Castle in DE, we believe Castle will prevail. A sizable segment of the GOP electorate thinks that O'Donnell is not fit for office and that number has been trending up in the last few days thanks to some Castle attack ads. If O'Donnell does win, she faces a much tougher slog against Democrat Chris Coons. This would make it very unlikely that the GOP retakes the Senate so this race is one to watch.

1. Why would the President make a statement on the mosque at all? You get the sense that this White House and this President feels as though they need to be part of every public dialogue. They seem to have difficulty remaining focused.
2. The White House is still wasting news cycles on unimportant skirmishes when it should be all about the economy and jobs (and perhaps some defense of the conduct of the war).

Democrats may be shaking their collective heads this morning and for good reason. Let's start by taking time to reflect on last week and the political state of play.

Who would have guessed that a week in which the Gulf oil leak had been finally and officially sealed would be one that Democrats and the White House would view as a complete disaster? Last week began with myriad "double-dip recession" stories on the heels of the August 6th unemployment report. Then Democrat Charlie Rangel took the floor in defense of his ethics charges and by week's end Democrat Maxine Waters did the same. Along the way, Wikileaks announced yet another tranche of released documents: 15,000 of them highlighting problems with the war in Afghanistan, thereby further eroding public confidence in our engagement there. In short, last week was a very bad one for Democrats, and it's unclear whether things are going to look up for them any time soon.

Here is our up-to-the-minute take on the current political environment:

1. The "double-dip" recession has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. This has been a "go to" media story for more than a month and the public has finally bought into it. According to a July Democracy Corps survey, only 35% of voters said the economy was improving. This was down from 45% in April. Additionally, 35% said that the economy was "getting worse" and 25% said it had "bottomed out." More economists came out last week arguing that we were indeed in a double dip. Our sense is that the public will be convinced of this by September and consumer confidence (already low) will drop even further, making the double-dip all but inevitable.

2. The economy remains the elephant in the room and will be the defining issue in November. What is especially problematic for Democrats is that there is an increasing body of empirical evidence to suggest that the economy is actually getting worse. This of course seems self evident, but when you see some of the arguments being made on the campaign trail you might think otherwise. The indicators are substantial:

a. Real GDP growth has slowed each of the past two quarters (3.7% in Q1 then 2.4% in Q2) after a seemingly-strong 2009 Q4 (5.0%).
b. Meanwhile, the CPI has been negative for the most recent three months, suggesting the possibility of deflation.
c. The unemployment rate has held in the 9.5 - 10.0% range after peaking at 10.1% last October, registering at 9.5% for both June and July. However, because of seasonal adjustments and a reduction in the labor force--it has been shrinking since mid-2009--the headline unemployment number does not show the underlying contraction in jobs in the past two months. After growing throughout the first four months of 2010, job growth was virtually flat in May and the household survey registered losses measured at 301,000 in June and 159,000 in July.
d. The Consumer Confidence Index also dropped sharply in July (to 50.4), down from 54.3 in June. From the release:

Those claiming jobs are "hard to get" increased to 45.8 percent from 43.5 percent, while those saying jobs are "plentiful" remained unchanged at 4.3 percent. Consumers' short-term outlook also deteriorated further in July. The percentage of consumers expecting an improvement in business conditions over the next six months decreased to 15.9 percent from 17.1 percent, while those anticipating conditions will worsen rose to 15.7 percent from 13.9 percent. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future job prospects. Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead decreased to 14.3 percent from 16.2 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased to 21.1 percent from 20.1 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes declined to 10.0 percent from 10.6 percent.

3. President Obama may in fact be losing the confidence of the American people. Surely the economic crisis was a primary driver of this decline, but it is also came from the Gulf oil spill and the perceived execution of the ongoing war in Afghanistan. A recent Washington Post/ABC News poll indicated that "nearly six in ten voters say they lack faith in the president to make the right decisions for the country," and two thirds say they "are disillusioned with or angry about the way the federal government is working." Nearly 6 in 10 said they did not have "confidence" in Obama's decisions.

4. With the exception of a few select races, the Tea Party is largely irrelevant in this upcoming election. Contrary to what Eugene Robinson and other pundits have argued, the elections this November are not going to be a referendum on the "wackiness of the Tea Party." Yes, controversial statements and policy positions will have some impact on individual races (think Sharron Angle in Nevada or Rand Paul in Kentucky) but this election is about the economy, and it will be a referendum on the President and the party in power; it really is that simple. And no amount of pontificating on the zaniness of the Tea Party movement will trump that fact.

5. The fact that there is no real "face" of the GOP may actually be a help in November. While the DNC and Democratic strategists have tried to make the Tea Party and Sarah Palin the face of the party, it simply isn't working. This is not 1996 (post-government shutdown) when Newt Gingrich became an albatross around the neck of the GOP and Bob Dole. Rightly or wrongly, Newt became a negative symbol for the Democrats to hang their hat on. In this economic environment that will not stick.

6. If the country's "wrong track" numbers remain where they are--they have averaged approximately 59% for the year--this will be one of the worst five year periods since Watergate, a debilitating scenario for the President and Democrats this fall. The data is what it is: only three in ten Americans believe the country is going in the right direction. And in many battleground states it is even worse than that.

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As the mosque controversy draws valuable time and energy from the White House, the voters are still focused where they have been for 2 years: on a very weak economy with few hopeful signs. This is the issue for the mid-terms and the President and Democrats need to get a handle on it in the next 30-60 days or there may be catastrophic electoral consequences in November.

Thanks to John Zirinsky and Peter Ventimiglia for their thoughts and insights. Follow us on Twitter @lcgpolling.

In a nutshell, the following appear to be the main tenets of the Democratic strategy: first, link the GOP to the Tea Party and second, raise the specter of a return to "Bush economics." The first strategy was on full display with a DNC ad released last Wednesday called "The Republican Tea Party Contract On America." To be sure, there are some elements of the Tea Party platform that are considered extreme by the mainstream electorate (swing voters). The goal with this line of attack is to paint all Republicans as extremists. The problem, as illustrated in the latest Pew survey, is that the electorate as a whole is more conservative than it was five years ago; in fact, Independents are much more closely aligned with the Republican Party than with Democrats. Furthermore, only about half of voters have any significant impression of the Tea Party; 48% of voters haven't heard of it or have no opinion about it either way. Unless the backlash against Tea Party movement becomes substantially stronger than it is today, this strategy will not be very successful.

The second core element of the Democrat's strategy, to link the GOP to Bush, was flagged by David Broder two weeks ago in a piece in which he cited a Benenson Strategy Group (one of Obama's pollsters) polling memo suggesting that when voters hear Bush's name associated with the GOP economic plan they prefer Obama's plan by a good margin. When voters are read the broad outline of each plan, however, they tend to support the Republican proposal to shrink government, spend less and lower taxes. There is no doubt that Bush's brand is still tarnished, but it is still surprising to see the Democrats fall into the trap of waging the 2010 battle like it is still 2008. It might work, but since Bush has been privately living his life out of office for almost two years and probably will not even be doing the Sunday talk show circuit anytime before the elections (even though he is releasing his book), it's a stretch.

While Democrats are busy tying the GOP to "Tea Baggers" and Bush, Republicans will focus on linking Democratic congressional candidates to just one person: Barack Obama. The GOP strategy is pretty simple: remind likely voters that things have only gotten worse in the last 18 months since Obama and the Democrats have been running things and get those who are most upset with the current direction of the country to the polls in November. The GOP wants this election to be a referendum on Obama and Democrats in Congress. They have history on their side. Most off-year elections in a President's first term are a referendum on that President. This is especially true if the President's party is in the majority in Congress. The GOP message is very simple and straightforward: "if you are unhappy with the way things are now, vote for change." This approach, of course, has the benefit of being naturally aligned with the electorate's overall mood of dissatisfaction with the direction of the country and its politicians and institutions. If Republicans are successful, this will be the third consecutive "change election"--a first.

Of course there are myriad sub-messages that will be built within each party's political message frame, but for the most part these are likely to be the overarching themes. Time will tell us which is more effective.

Now let's take an up-to-the-minute snapshot of the current political and public opinion landscape:

• The idea that POTUS is over-exposed is flat out wrong. The President's turn on "The View" was a smart PR move and important given that his approval rating with women has dropped 20 points in 12 months (it's hovering just above 50% at last check). Everyone inside the beltway will almost always think that Obama is overexposed, but for the rest of America his level of TV presence probably feels about right. Given the multiplicity of viewing options and news outlets (digital and traditional), it would be awfully hard for any President to be overexposed in this day and age. Having said that, there is something to be said about making sure you have some message discipline. Here, the administration has proven to be inconsistent. We have said for several months now that the President seems hell bent on covering every topic and policy issue out there. This problem is far more real for this administration than the claim that the President is over-exposed.



• While the environmental impact of the Gulf oil spill may turn out to be less than previously feared, its impact on perceptions of government and the President has been enormous. Yes, to some extent it will be "out of sight, out of mind," and the massive use of dispersants while potentially bad for the environment...helps BP and the government because it takes the problem out of view. But for many voters, the image of a slow government reaction to the crisis from the beginning will linger in their minds and continue to hurt the President's ratings. There may be some improvement in the coming weeks in terms of public perceptions of the spill cleanup, but overall the crisis has hurt the Obama brand because it tarnished one of his key attributes (and one of his key differentiators from the previous administration): competence.



• Don't buy the recent Democratic push-back spin that things might turn out alright in November. Things are, in fact, every bit as bad as they seem. Every available polling metric suggests a substantial "wave" election in the GOP's favor. The list is extensive:
  1. The GOP lead on the generic congressional ballot is about four points (our average of recent public and private polls);
  2. The President's approval rating is approximately 46% (not quite toxic but low enough to depress Democratic turnout and help put swing districts in the GOP column in November);
  3. Only 31% of voters believe the country is going in the "right direction";
  4. Partisan identification is running even or with Republicans slightly ahead in our national polls of registered voters. This almost never happens. Democrats usually have between a 4-8 point lead. In 2008, their lead was 10 points;
  5. Those most likely to vote this November are far more likely to be Republican than Democrat. Democrats have an intensity issue. Republicans and lean GOP voters are far more interested in the upcoming election than their Democratic counterparts; and,
  6. Voters are far more likely to say that it is "time to elect someone new" to congress than say that they are leaning toward "re-electing" current congressmen. This anti-incumbency sentiment is at its highest level since 1994.
• The economy may in fact be heading into a double-dip recession and, even more importantly, consumer confidence is shot. Friday's government report on GDP was signaled a major blow to any hope that 2010 would be a turnaround year. The 2.4% GDP growth was weaker than expected, the weakest growth in a year. Additionally, the revised data for 2009 is now saying that it was the weakest annual economic growth for the U.S. since 1946. The economy is by far the number one issue in America today and a majority of voters (52% in the latest CBS News poll) say that Obama has spent "too little time" working on the issue. In the same poll, more than eight in ten believe that Obama's economic programs have either had no effect (63%) or actually hurt them personally (23%). Only 40% approved of the job the President is doing on the economy. Additionally, according to the Conference Board's consumer-confidence index, faith in the economy dropped in June and even further in July. The index is currently at 50.4. Generally consumer confidence is high when the unemployment rate is low (which it is not) and GDP growth is high (which it is not). So, while we have seen some improvement in confidence from its low in 2008, the last two months suggest consumer confidence is in fact dropping again.
  


• At the time of this writing it is unclear whether Charlie Rangel will cut a deal and save his party from a trial/hearings in November, but if he does not the scandal is sure to be a drag on Democrats in the fall.


• We continue to believe that while the political fallout from the Arizona immigration controversy may have long-term implications on perceptions of the political parties in Presidential cycles, the issue will have little impact in 2010. Immigration is the new "third rail" in politics and both parties could get burned. At this point, however, given the demographic growth of Hispanics, the GOP has the most to lose (literally and figuratively).

While the economy is the dominant issue on the minds of most voters, there several national that could emerge front and center in the coming months. Terrorism and national security are powerful issues that have at least temporarily moved lower on the national agenda but could re-emerge quite quickly. July was the deadliest month in the history of the Afghanistan war. While the military expected this, it does suggest that at some point the country may get "war fatigue" much like they did with Iraq. In other words, we are facing a very crowded, volatile issue agenda--so stay tuned.

Thanks to John Zirinsky and Peter Ventimiglia for their thoughts and insights. Follow us on Twitter @lcgpolling.

Make no mistake, the Gulf oil spill has done considerable political damage to the President. As evidenced by the spate of polls this week, President Obama is in a substantially weakened political condition at a time when Congressional Democrats are facing a potential GOP landslide in November. The oil leak has become a symbol of voter's frustrations with government. The spill crystallized the problem for voters - "Government can't do anything right." Since 9/11 Americans have felt increasingly vulnerable. Katrina, the Great Recession, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the bailouts and health care reform have turbo-charged the public's negative attitude toward government.

But it goes further than anti-big government. The public has begun to question whether the federal government is capable of achieving much of anything. The American public has lost faith in government and, as the Washington Post pointed out this week, by extension the public has lost faith in Obama. It's fairly simplistic, but it goes something like this: If the federal government is incapable of plugging a leak in an oil well, how can it possibly fix our economy and create jobs and do all of the other things that this administration has promised since it took office? While that may be unfair, recent polling data--along with developments like the rise of the Tea Party--has shown that this attitude is taking hold and will be a driving force in the 2010 elections. Our sense is that the jobless rate and poor economy are intensifying a long-building voter frustration with government itself. And right now, the government is Obama and the Democrats.

The following is our up to the minute take on the current political landscape:

1. Plugging the leak gives Obama a chance to take back the political narrative in this country. The fact is that the President has been playing defense for almost 3 months. Nothing that the Administration has done has dented the information flow in the country. It has been the Gulf oil spill and the economy non-stop, 24/7 for nearly 90 days. Now the President has a chance to regain some measure of control over the narrative--hopefully helped by some good economic news. As we said last week, there is no better time to right this ship than over the summer, ideally before Labor Day. Assuming the cap holds, and the cleanup gets fully underway, the public will slowly turn its attention away from the Gulf and back to the economy.
2. Yesterday the President said that the loss of jobs keeps him up at night and we have no doubt of the veracity of this. The continuing weakness of the economy is potentially fatal to Democrats in the Fall. Voter perceptions of the economy are in the tank, as are voter attitudes toward the administration's efforts to improve the economy and create jobs. (See this CBS poll for some startling numbers: 97% of Americans say the recession will last at least another year; just 13% say Obama's economic programs have helped them personally; and only 23% think the stimulus made the economy better, down from 36% last year.) As a result, President Obama's approval ratings are at all-time lows and more voters now disapprove than approve of the job he is doing.
3. The latest polling data suggests that there has been an unprecedented swing in support of congressional Republicans - so strong that it now seems more likely than not that the GOP retakes the House in November. The latest generic congressional ballot numbers show Republicans with as much as an eight-point lead, something we've simply never seen before (Gallup has been asking a generic ballot question since 1954 and the previous high water mark for Republicans was +4 in September of 1994). So the news is pretty terrible for Democrats right now. The good news? It's July. As we said in our previous note, the summer is a period when most voters simply aren't all that engaged in politics or policy. And so Democrats have some time--though it isn't much--for things to turn around. And by "turn around," of course, we're talking about the economy. It was just announced that jobless claims last week were at their lowest point in two years and there is no hint of inflation. Of course, the bigger risk at this point may still be stagnant demand and deflation. But what matters politically is all about perception and momentum. A steady stream of good economic news (even if it doesn't immediately result in new jobs) will help Democrats. But it will have to be significant and consistent enough for this Administration--and Democratic candidates--to be able to say "See! It's working!" That might be simply too tall an order in a three- to four-month period.


4. The passing of financial regulatory reform-or as the White House and MSNBC prefer to call it "sweeping Wall Street reform," along with the $500,000 fine paid by Goldman Sachs yesterday does send a signal that the President and Democrats are working for the people. To some extent, in the absence of a major economic recession, this might be pretty good politics. The problem is that the populist sentiment of 2008 may have been overridden by the anti-government, anti-spending fervor of 2010. We think the passing of this legislation will ultimately be helpful to Obama in 2012, but is likely to have little or no impact in the Congressional elections this Fall.

If there is one common thread to the national polls this week-other than the problems facing Democrats-is that it appears that President Obama has lost the middle of the electorate. Independents have moved away from the President in droves since January of 2009. Yes, some of that support was artificial and bound to move away but the erosion has been substantial and is the main reason the President's approval rating (in some polls) is now underwater--disapproval above his approval. According to the last 5 public polls, the President's approval rating with Independents ranges an abysmal 34-40%.

We fielded a poll the first week of July with 800 registered voters. Those who identify themselves as Independents are a malleable, heterogeneous bunch, shifting with such things as which party is in power and the general faith in government and other institutions. So we thought it might be interesting to give a snapshot of the Independents who we found in a recent survey.

• Of the 800 respondents, 41% described themselves as political Independents.
• Of this 41%, one-quarter are pure Independents (i.e. they don't lean toward either of the two major parties), 39% leaned toward the GOP and 30% leaned toward the Democrats.
• Slightly more than half (54%) of the Independents are men, while the remaining 46% are women. They are similar in age to Republicans and Democrats.
• Independents are slightly less likely to vote than their counterparts in the Republican and the Democratic Parties: 36% claim that they have voted in "all" recent elections, compared to 43% of Republicans and 42% of Democrats.
• In the 2008 election, these Independents favored Barack Obama by seven points (39% to 32% among those who voted (10% declined to answer)). Meanwhile, 85% of Republicans voted for John McCain and 85% of Democrats voted for Barack Obama.
• Looking ahead to the 2010 elections, Independents favor the Republican House candidate in their district by four points (34% to 30%). By comparison, Republicans say they will be voting for the GOP candidate 88% of the time, while just 75% of Democrats say that they will be voting for their own candidate.
• From a race perspective, Independents (72%) are more likely to be white than Democrats (57%); Republicans (86%), however, are most likely to be white. Democrats are significantly more likely than either Republicans or Independents to be African American or Hispanic.
• There are no significant differences among Republicans/Democrats/Independents from an education perspective.
• Like Democrats (24%), Independents (21%) are more likely to be single than their Republican (11%) counterparts.

Independents will be the key in the coming weeks. For Democrats to stave off the GOP in the mid-terms they will need to have the President's approval rating in the mid to high 40's. To get there, the President will need to win back Independent voters.

Thanks again to John Zirinsky and Peter Ventimiglia for their insights and contributions. For real-time reactions to events and more thoughts on the public opinion environment, please follow us on Twitter @lcgpolling.