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MA: 2010 Gov (UNH 6/17-23)

Topics: Governor , Massachusetts , poll

University of New Hampshire / Boston Globe
6/17-23/10; 497 likely voters, 4.4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Boston Globe Release)

Massachusetts

2010 Governor
38% Patrick (D), 31% Baker (R), 9% Cahill (i), 2% Stein (G) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Deval Patrick: 44 / 47
Tim Cahill: 22 / 32
Charlie Baker: 21 / 20

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Patrick: 41 / 49
Sen. Brown: 52 / 18
Pres. Obama: 51 / 47

 

Comments
Field Marshal:

A republican in Mass out-polling both Sen Kerry and Pres Obama in job approval AND the GOP having the possibility to pick up a Mass House seat this November. But i'm sure its something to do with the poll and not that the Dems are in deep doo-doo this fall.

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Aaron_in_TX:

" republican in Mass out-polling both Sen Kerry and Pres Obama in job approval "

I wouldn't get too worked up. There's still a huge number undecided.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"the Dems are in deep doo-doo this fall."

It will be worth it for republicans to take over so they can have an excuse to quit. their. complaining. I swear, they have whined like petulant children ever since the stimulus.

Bush didn't even win the popular vote and it took until the the Iraq invasion for democrats to complain at the level republicans did after 2 weeks of Obama in office.

Like I said yesterday, this reminds me very much of Clinton's first two years.

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Xenobion:

This November has been built up to 1994 for the past year. If I don't see a 50 seat swing in the house and 13 seat swing in the Senate I'll take it as overhyped distension by the Republicans. Somehow they've set themselves up for failure before the goal line. Why do I expect minimal wins in the house and senate will be taken as HUGE wins? Losing someone like we all expect to lose like Blanche Lincoln as an example of an overwhelming Republican victory. /snore

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Field Marshal:

Don't worry X, I'm sure even if the GOP takes 60 seats, the mainstream media and the libies on this board like yourself will be saying that the Reps underperformed and were over-hyped.

Aaron,

I wouldn't get too worked up. There's still a huge number undecided.

I'm sure there is. What's your point?

I guess the GOP has learned from the experts at whining and complaining like children; and that would be the dems, especially the liberals.

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Xenobion:

Lets set a number now. What number is suitable for "Red Tide" season? Or a bad catch?

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Louis:

Brown is a newbie who has has already crossed over on several occassions. The approval rates are even.
Of course all this ignores that Patric will be relected. The Republican candiate is a disaster who will be lucky to poll 35% against an unpopular Governor. Yes loads of great news for Republicans.

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JMSTiger:

@ Xenobion

As someone who is hoping for large gains by the Republicans in November (not because I love the Republican Party, but because, as a libertarian type, I love divided government and neither party getting much done), I give you the "JMSTiger threshold" the Republicans must meet to be able to claim a better than good night on November 2nd:

-U.S. House: a net pick-up of at least 30 seats (gets them to roughly 210 seats, which makes it very difficult for Pelosi to get left-leaning legislation through the House)

-U.S. Senate: a net pick-up of at least 6 seats (Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana and North Dakota are slam dunk pick-ups...they also have to hold Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio AND pick-up 2 of 3 of Colorado, Nevada and Pennsylvania to truly be able to claim a big night with Senate races; by the way, I am not counting a Crist victory in Florida as a takeaway unless he gets support from the Administration and hints at caucusing with the Democrats)

-Governors: a net pick-up of at least 6 governor's seats (the GOP has so many good prospects for picking up governor's chairs, it truly would be a disappointment for them to not end up with at least 30 GOP governors after November)

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Field Marshal:

Baker within 8 points in a VERY democratic state with 9 points going to an indie candidate. I also think this is very good news for Reps. But i would also agree Patrick will be re-elected much to the detriment of the state.

X, i would think anything above 36 seats in the house and 3 or 4 seats in the senate should be considered a landslide.

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Xenobion:

36 I think is fair. I'd consider under 23 massively underwhelming.

As far as senate who gets the majority of seats won will played off well, but I'd have to see either party get a fundamental super majority of those senate seats to be considered a "landslide."

As far as gov races go, I'm generally uninterested as I've always contended that Governor's races are not about national politics typically. Power is limited in their hands, they never tow the party line, which ideally makes them perfect presidential candidates.

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Country Club Repub:

A 51 approval rating for little O in MA, that is a very bad sign for dems in 2010, little O in 2012, and liberalism long term. I can even see his approval falling to the mid 40's in this state before he is out.

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Aaron_in_TX:

Looks like the general consensus is that a pick-up of above 30 and 5 senate seats would be considered a republican success.

Given that the average loss is 26 seats in the president's first mid-term that seems like not that big of a deal. Over 35 would be a much bigger deal. Average senate loss is 2 or 3, so the already clear republican pickups in the senate give them something to cheer about prematurely.

In any case, even if democrats lose the house, republicans will not be able to get through much themselves with such a bare-knuckle majority, leaving Obama the ability to accuse them of being a do nothing congress. I actually think a single-digit republican majority would be far better for Obama than a single-digit democratic one.

"I am not counting a Crist victory in Florida as a takeaway unless he gets support from the Administration and hints at caucusing with the Democrats"

He appears to be becoming the de facto democrat in the race. This will be the most interesting development of the year. Crist strikes me as someone who will blow the way he thinks the winds are coming from. My feeling is that he will caucus with the republicans but be as problematic for them as Lieberman is for democrats.

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JMSTiger:

@ Aaron_in_TX

There is no doubt that politically, the best result for the Republicans in November is a net gain of 37 or 38 seats in the House and 7 or 8 seats in the Senate. Get right up to almost taking back both chambers, but falling short. This way, when Obama runs for reelection in 2012, the Congress will still be technically controlled by the Democrats (although it will be effectively "controlled" by no faction) and he can not run against the "do-nothing/extremist Republican Congress". Plus, the Democrats have to defend so many more Senate seats in 2012, it will be almost impossible for them to not lose that body at that point in time.

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