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MA: Brown 50 Coakley 46 (Suffolk 1/11-13)


7News / Suffolk University
1/11-13/10; 500 registered voters, 4.4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Suffolk: release, toplines)

Massachusetts

2010 Senate
50% Brown (R), 46% Coakley (D), 3% Kennedy (i) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Martha Coakley: 49 / 41
Scott Brown: 57 / 19
Joseph L. Kennedy: 19 / 25
Barack Obama: 55 / 35
Deval Patrick: 41 / 50
Tim Cahill: 32 / 17

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 48 / 43
Gov. Patrick: 35 / 56

 

Comments
MASS-e:

Well then Obama at 55 & Coakley at 46, could it really be?

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Field Marshal:

Wow....

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Farleftandproud:

This poll was taken on the 11th, part of it, and that was before the debate. These are just random people and there is no scientific evidence how many Democrats vs independents and Gopers were contacted.

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Field Marshal:

What is that little symbol next to the "MA" on the title?

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RaleighNC:

Lots of stained underwear in democrat circles about this race. It would be one of the biggest political upsets in American history.

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Pluoticus:

You mean part of it was taken before Coakley watched a guy get knocked down by her staff, photographed looking at him on the ground, and then said she didn't see it?

Farleft, you are correct, maybe Brown leads by 5 or 6.

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LordMike:

@Pluoticus:

I believe the correct term is "flopped" as in the NBA, pretending to be fouled. That weakly standard reporter did the same thing in NY-23. It's his schtick!

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Stillow:

These intenrals actually look very reasonable to me. I don't see any red flags that pop out at me to indicicate this is an outlier.

Unbeleivable if this occurs. I can't think of a race in my lifetime that would be considered a bigger upset.

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tom brady:

Far Left,

The partisan breakdown of the survey respondents to the Suffolk poll is 39% Democrat, 15% Republican and 45% independent. This is consistent with the partisan breakdown of previous polls.

Of course, we can't know what the turnout will actually be.

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Pluoticus:

LordMike,

Oh please...even if I believe your premise, which I don't. Why did she look and then keep walking away? It looked thuggish and it probably WAS thuggish, SEIU style crap. I think people are sick of that crap.

Coakley appeared to be an A-hole that night, any way you decided to parse it.

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Farleftandproud:

A win or loss for Coakley it will be close. This is one good reason for Unions, Acorn, Blue Dogs, progressives, civil libertarians and the entire ctr/left to come together. We have been asleep and fighting amongst ourselves and this is a wakeup call to not let 94 happen again. If it does, it will be our fault for not coming together.

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Farleftandproud:

The Approval on Obama is clearly crap. If the approval is about 50 percent on Gallup, Mass would have to be close to 60 percent approval to counteract how unpopular he is in states he won like VA, CO and In. Lets face it, he is toast in the south and the mountain west. There is no way this poll is credible.

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Dan:

I did an analysis of the Suffolk Poll and the Research 2000 Poll (done a day later, same methodology, same sample size) age distribution versus the Mass. Census data projections for 2010. While there would be an expected difference because of the 'likely voter' requirement (a skew to older people), the Suffolk Poll is way off, while the Research 2000 is much closer.

Census –Suffolk-Diff.
18 to 24-10%-4%-6%
25 to 34-17%-7%-10%
35 to 44-19%-20%-(1%)
45 to 54-21%-23%-(2%)
55 to 64-16%-23%-(7%)
65 to 74-9%-13%-(4%)
75 plus-8%-11%-(3%)

Census-Res2000-Diff.
18 to 29-19%-16%-3%
30 to 44-27%-25%-2%
45 to 59-29%-41%-(12%)
60 plus-24%-18%-6%

Suffolk severly under-represents younger voters compared to the Research 2000 poll. This is critical because in both polls, middle age voters (45-60) support Brown, while younger voters (mid thirties and younger) support Coakley. The Research 2000 Poll shows Coakley up 8%, with the same 4% MOE.

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Farleftandproud:

This poll is so wrong on Obama's Approval. Even Ras had him at 56 or 57 percent. If Obama's approval really was this bad in Mass. it would be about 38 percent in America. THe Boston Globe needs to do a new poll for this weekend. I think the truth will come out.

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TR in VA:

It is laughable-- really absurd-- that farleftkook would at first claim that the Suffolk poll had NO internals... then after someone pointed out it did... then said the poll was worthless for some other reason

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TR in VA:

Sorry Dan.... the REASON why the Suffolk poll is lower on the young voter demographic is becuase as a rule younger voters dont turn out--Obama's election/ 2008 being the exception that proves the rule.

The young urban voters and people of color will NOT come out in the same way that they did in NOV 2008 for a SPECIAL election

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