InsideMedford.com / Merriman River Group
1/15/10; 565 likely voters, 4.1% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(InsideMedford: release, toplines)
Brown 51%, Coakley 41%, Kennedy 2% (chart)
The consistency of the vote breakdown by party id among these polls is downright amazing... regardless of projected turnout.
Posted on January 17, 2010 3:09 PM
I'm sorry, but these ass clown polls have to stop before Massachusetts turns into a crazy state.
There are in-depth polling methodologies, but there is no way in hell Independent type voters prefer the Republican by near 40% in a liberal state. The methodology is not rigorous enough because the gender gap is too wide too.
I find so many inconsistencies in the demographics across the board in their voter preferences.
Coakley will win on Tuesday night by 3-5 percentage points. This reminds me when Obama was a lock to win New Hampshire and got ambushed by Clinton.
Posted on January 17, 2010 3:31 PM
It's worth noting that Brown seems to poll at least 5 points stronger on automated phone polls than other polls taken on the same day.
Posted on January 17, 2010 3:50 PM
I am so sick of these god damned polls I haven't heard of. When is a Globe Poll coming out or even a ARG or Rasmussen. I won't trust a pollster I haven't even heard of. Besides, if the turnout consists of unlikely voters this tuesday, Coakley will win.
Posted on January 17, 2010 3:54 PM
Actually scratch my last comment, with this latest poll, Brown now scores 10 points higher in automated phone polls.
Posted on January 17, 2010 4:02 PM
I doubt ARG will poll this race again. Probably will get one from Ras though and PPP will be out with one tonight.
I doubt this poll is spot on, but whatever the case, I think it's clear Brown has the momentum and more vote "banked" than Coakley in the form of absentees. The only route to victory for Coakley is a huge Dem machine turnout. Don't know if she'll get it.
Posted on January 17, 2010 4:16 PM
Globe Polls are not exactly the best polls either. My brother has lived in Boston for years and he feels their is bias Globe polls. While these poll seems more reasonable then a polll put out by someone called "Pajamas Media," I agree that I would much rather have a well known pollster. ARG just came out with one, I am waiting for Rasmussen's poll. A PPP and Kos poll would be interesting as well.
It baffles me how Mass looks like they potentially could elect not only a Republican Senator but a very pretty far right one who opposes gay-marriage. This is the state that practically invented gay marriage, its crazy!
Posted on January 17, 2010 4:23 PM
Look, no matter who wins this race, I was outraged that Obama had heckelers at his speech this afternoon who had to be arrested. What is the GOP radical's need to heckle the president? Demonstrations are okay, and protesting a politicain is legitimate. Hey if Scott Brown comes my way, I'll organize some protesters to peacefully demonstrate outside where he is speaking, but I would never heckle him. It is immature, and it doesn't help the conservative cause. I thought more of Mass, but I guess there are uncivilized morons all over the country. I think the states that have the least annoying electorate, and seem to have respect for one another are VT, Oregon, North and South Dakota and Maine. I notice a mutual respect for politicians regardless of policy differences. I think this may be true because these states are more rural and closely knit. I worked at a book store in Lexington Mass for about 4 years and there were regular customers who would always talk progressive politics with each other. Our customers were so progressive minded that I never got in trouble from my boss for talking about these issues. Lexington is an affluent Boston suburb too. It is still hard to believe these automated polls have any merit.
Posted on January 17, 2010 4:54 PM
I have lived in Lexington, MA. You are incredibly out of touch if you think Lexington is at all representative of the rest of MA. Lexington is just a suburban extension of Cambridge and Somerville, and I mean that literally since many of my neighbors were (leftist) Harvard, MIT, and Tufts professors.
I am sorry but I cannot trust or believe any of your comments or analysis regarding this Senate race if you find any polls, regardless of the pollster, unreliable merely because they don't accurately reflect your recollection of what Lexington was like. Then again, that is just my opinion. Everyone may feel free to disagree.
Posted on January 17, 2010 5:25 PM
The hecklers were abortion protester, nothing to do with Scott Brown's campaign. Maybe the protesters didn't like Coakley's comments about catholics the other day.
Posted on January 17, 2010 5:30 PM
And that's before the Great Saving Rally?
I watched both Martha's and Barack's speeches and I must report - they both SUCKED big time.
I've seen a few weak performances by Barack during 08 campaign, very few, but today's was far and away the worst I've seen him. Rattled by the hecklers, off teleprompter, off reservation. Amazingly low crowd enthusiasm. Wasn't pretty.
Not saying these flight by night pollsters are right, or that Brown will take it, but I am pretty sure today's event didn't help Martha's cause.
Posted on January 17, 2010 5:38 PM
Agreed StatyPolly. The abortion protestor through him off big-time. And the fact that the arena was only partially full shows you just how big Obama's fall has been this year.
Coakley is in a free fall. Obama cannot save her on a three day vacation weekend.
Posted on January 17, 2010 5:51 PM
Regardless of everything else, Obama does have the ability to perform at a very high level with speeches. But I agree with you today's speech was very disjointed. Altho he got more into the groove towards the end the beginning was absolutely horrible. It seemed like the teleprompters were down all of a sudden.
An interesting note, the Cape Cod Times has endorsed Scott Brown. http://www.capecodonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100116/OPINION/1160337
When the Herald endorses an R that isn't big news, but when a paper such as the CC Times does, and as the home paper of the Kennedys, that says something about the race.
Posted on January 17, 2010 5:54 PM
Hello independent345: I think you are completely correct about Lexington and it is a community with a lot of top professors at Harvard and other schools, people in the sciences and a lot of young internet creative people. I loved it there. I went to school near Lowell and do remember the white folks who lived there were at a lower education level and when I did campaigns in college, they tended to vote Democratic mostly, but if there was a candidate they saw as weak, especially someone who can come across a little abrasive as Martha Coakley, the blue collar male population isn't going to connect with them. If Coakley loses it is because she wasn't a strong candidate. The Democrats since Howard Dean have picked two weak candidates with Deeds in VA and nominating Corzine with his low approval wasn't the best move in retrospect. I have seen some things with Coakley where she has said things I wouldn't have said. She is accusatory as a campaigner and made a big mistake by saying the terrorists were not as much in Afghanistan. Perhaps it is true, but not something you say in a short campaign. I would have preferred Ed Markey to have run for the seat. I think he would be ahead by double digits.
Posted on January 17, 2010 6:13 PM
Brown will be out of a job in 2012. If he opposes gay marriage and if he is more in line with Mitch Mcconnell and Saxby Chambliss than he is with Susan Collins Olympia Snowe or even Richard Lugar, he'll never get away from angry mobs of femminists, progressive environmentalists, and health care advocates. He will face the wrath of the younger politically active voters who will regret not voting in this race.
Posted on January 17, 2010 6:17 PM
Obama's staff needs to do a better job to keep the catholic fanatics and pro life idiots out. They need to be screened better. I think the GOP does a better job at screening people like me from their events than Obama does at keeping enemies as far away as possible.
Posted on January 17, 2010 6:19 PM
Who the hell are these guys? Who do they tend to work for?
Let's see what PPP (tonight) and Rasmussen say tomorrow...
The guy from gallup said that probably every single poll out there is crap right now 'cos no one knows who's going to actually end up voting.
As for banking absentees, remember that Coakley's base support is from older women. There could be a Hillary NH effect going on here...
Posted on January 17, 2010 6:24 PM
Thanks for that link, MASS-e,
I know nothing about local politics there, but CCTimes does sound pretty liberal. I guess the wind farm is the big issue there. Quite a hatchet job on Coakley.
Here is an interesting piece from yesterday's Politico..
Posted on January 17, 2010 6:28 PM
I felt a huge outrage from older female voters about Martha. I have campaigned for progressive women in NY, VT and MA and usually got a much more positive response. In the past when I called random voters in states like Ohio or PA, I got a lot of angry pro-life anti gay marriage voters. I usually would just say "thanks for your time" and move on. In this Mass race, I am getting a whole set of issues that have nothing to do with family values, which has made this race a lot more complicated to predict. I have found some Obama supporters voting for Scott Brown. The bottom line is that people are self centered and will put their own interests ahead of their loyalty. The Dems and Progressives have a lot of work to do to get better candidates and communicate our message better.
Posted on January 17, 2010 6:40 PM
Hillary's NH effect is nothing more than her having a REAL moment (or at least a perceived real moment haha) after months of steely regal coldness.
I think she was crying over her Iowa defeat, but was able to sell it as something else. "I SO WANT TO HELP YOU, IT HURTS" she said or something like that.
Either way, lots of pundits described it as "she finally found her voice" and such. It happened on the eve of the primary so the polls taken that morning weren't necessarily wrong.
Posted on January 17, 2010 6:44 PM
In some polls and surverys I have seen the 4 most despised US Senators from progressives are Sen Coburn, Sen Infofe, Sen Demint and Sen Jim Bunning, but perhaps if things go bad in Mass we may have someone new to include in the group.
Posted on January 17, 2010 6:46 PM
Staty Polly: Lets face it, the good days have vanished for the Dems. I think the media and the special interests and arguing between the Dems in the house and the senate, dragged their feet and didn't see the consequences of lingering over things like abortion language as well as the facade from Joe Liebermann changing his mind and delaying reform, as well as Lincoln and Mary Landreiu being so indecisive and taking bribe money from Harry Reid, it was a horrible way to get the job done. I have been angry with these people from the ctr and the left, who have abandoned what they are fighting for, and have done nothing more than play politics and make deals. The public has lost interest in health care reform because of the fact they have forgotten about what we are fighting for. The media for the most part has focused so much on the dealmaking and the debates and have not shown the countless working Americans who are uninsured and are in debt up to their ears. We have nearly 60 million of these people. I can honestly say right now, I am really ashamed of our system in America and think that serious changes need to be made to get rid of this fillubuster rule with 60 votes. I think 58 would be more fair.
Posted on January 17, 2010 6:54 PM
Jeez you are guys are talking like the world is ending.Talking like its already over and Brown is the next senator. If I remember didn't we have the same nonsense during the Ny-23 election. Suddenly Hoffman was picking up momentum and some polls showed him leading. And the media suddenly had this narrative that owens who was leading mostly throughout was in danger of losing. Did hoffman win? no. None of these polls really knows what happening as given the fact that these sudden unknown have popped up to make browns surge look bigger than it is.. It's all a narrative. Think about it what would be more exciting a race that is easily one or a supposed tight race for the media. Same narrative was used in the nc dem primary in 2008. He may win but I'm not going to say it is a certainty and that there is true momentum. Noone knows who will show up our.But if he does win big deal. No panic for me. I still do what I please short of breaking the law no matter what party is in charge.
Posted on January 17, 2010 7:44 PM
CNN reporting Obama's advisors are telling him Coakly will lose Tuesdays election in Mass. If true, this will be the SECOND SHOT heard around the world.
Posted on January 17, 2010 7:46 PM
CNN also just walked back that statement... Ed Henry admitted that he basically lied...
Posted on January 17, 2010 8:05 PM
"I am really ashamed of our system in America and think that serious changes need to be made to get rid of this fillubuster rule with 60 votes. I think 58 would be more fair."
Will never happen. The senate is ALL about tradition. Even if it was 58, the "moderates" or swing senators would still hold out for maximum effect and benefit.
Posted on January 17, 2010 8:31 PM
1 It is clear you dont have a clue about who Brown is. In the debates he said the issue of Gay marriage in mass has been settled by the Mass Supreme Court. Which is of course 100% correct.
How EXACTLY is citing the Law... pro gay marriage law... make him OPPOSED to Gay marriage? Please explain THAT one!!!
2 Brown has taken NO $$ from the RNC and or the Tea Baggers. NONE. ZERO. He told them to stay they hell away from his campaign.
Thus You Bob Herbert and Bill Clinton can scream "he is a Tea Bagger!!!" all you want to... the fact is that since Brown has Taken No Money from " them" the charge has NO weight.
3. WHY would anyone want to be FAR left or FAR right and proud?
Posted on January 17, 2010 8:34 PM
He's taken no money from teabaggers? Really.. you mean NONE of that money from his $1 million a day moneybomb are from teabaggers... please....
Posted on January 17, 2010 8:41 PM
"An interesting note, the Cape Cod Times has endorsed Scott Brown."
Southeastern Mass is the most conservative part, followed by Worcester county.
People forget that in 1996, John Kerry had a close senate race vs. Gov. William Weld. Kerry won 52-45, but Weld carried Plymouth, Barnstable, Hempden, Worcester, and Essex counties. Since then, Essex and Hempden have grown more democratic, Plymouth and Barnstable are about the same, and Worcester has grown a little less democratic. The Suffolk poll showed Coakley not doing very well in the "N.E." part of the state and undercounted it's importance.
I lived in Newton, MA for several months in 2009. Obama was overwhelmingly popular there, at least when I left in Sept. I find it hard to believe a republican is doing so well but I heard Coakley insulted Sox fans and that is a major gaffe.
I think a lot of these polls are wrong, but we'll see who turns out on Tuesday.
Posted on January 17, 2010 8:50 PM
It may be more of a conservative area, but that doesn't mean it's a republican dominated area. And the point I tried to make was that no matter the leanings of the area the paper itself is much closer aligned to the framing of the Globe than the Herald.
Posted on January 17, 2010 9:09 PM
Look if some Glenn Beck Yahoo gives $50 or $100 to Brown that isnt Brown's fault.
The Fact is that he has gone out of his to NOT court or seek favor with Tea Baggers Birthers Palins Hannity or Beck people.
Posted on January 17, 2010 9:15 PM
Field Marshal, you are ABSOLUTELY INCORRECT. I am a BU student, I went to Northeastern today, the building was at capacity and thousands more poured into the student union.
Posted on January 17, 2010 9:33 PM
This paper endorsed Obama in 2008, but Bush in 2004. So their endorsement of a republican isn't that surprising, expecially since 2004 featured home town boy John Kerry. These editors probably lean conservative. Reading their 2008 endorsement, I get the feeling they would have endorsed McCain if he had not chosen Palin.
Posted on January 17, 2010 9:41 PM
I'll grant you that and pull back somewhat, 2000 was back in 11th grade so although fully in CC Times geographically location maybe not the first thing in my mind. Their editorial board maybe somewhat conservative leaning, of course in relative terms for Mass, but certainly for a paper down the road from the Kennedy Compound it's certainly somewhat noteworthy if not groundbreaking.
Posted on January 17, 2010 10:19 PM
Cape Cod doesn't have a big population, so I don't think the cape cod times will have a big affect. This race will be a lot tighter than most people think. The black and non-white turnout will be higher than expected on tuesday, the student turnout will be higher than expected and whether or not Brown wins, a lot of people are disgusted with the lies and mistruths and the disrespect in Obama's speeches, and the heckeling and all that nonsense. I want to stress again that all last week, Fox news kept attacking Obamacare and accusing Obama of having 3 or more terror attacks on his watch. MSNBC could have been slamming Limbaugh and FOX news, but they had class and the decency to focus on the crisis in Haiti.
Posted on January 17, 2010 10:44 PM
The Cape cod times is to Mass what the Rutland Herald is to VT. It is the only newspaper that doesn't endorse Bernie sanders or Pat Leahy and endorses some little known guy from the street who nobody has ever heard of.
Posted on January 17, 2010 10:46 PM
*** NEW POLL FROM PPP...democratic polling firm... Brown lead increases from 3 points in PPP's last poll to 5 points
Posted on January 17, 2010 11:09 PM
Yeah that poll just made Brown spike again on Intrade. He's 65% favored to win there.
Posted on January 17, 2010 11:12 PM
Isn't PPP the the same poll that had hoffman up by 16 in ny-23.
Posted on January 17, 2010 11:25 PM
yes PPP on 10/31 ... 5 days before the election did show that.
keep in mind.... that POLL was taken before the standard GOP Scozzafava threw her entire support behind the Dem.
Second Hoffman was Tea Bagger in NY. Brown is NOT.
Third PPP was the ONLY poll that showed a huge margin.
in this Mass election PPP result is NOT an outlier is it? their results match ARG U of Soffolk
Posted on January 17, 2010 11:40 PM
PPP Saturday-Sunday poll, as of this time not yet posted here at Pollster, has Brown up 51-46.
Posted on January 17, 2010 11:56 PM
But the fact is when PPP and Sienna said that Hoffman had a lead they ran the narrative on the media. Even though the seat was normally republican they ran the "is the dem in ny-23 in danger of losing" meme. Same meme different candidate. Look I'm not saying she can't lose the race.I'm simply saying that it's the same old tired media nonsense they run every election cycle. I don't know how many times I have heard the words the race has tightened only to see a landslide. Not sure why I'm bothering saying this since I don't care who wins. Like I said there have been no major changes broguht on by either that have affected my life. Even the tax cuts haven't made my life any better. So big whoop. Congress is nothing than a rich man or woman's club.
Posted on January 17, 2010 11:58 PM
It's not over until it's over, but it's hard to fight celebrity with tons of money to burn... just ask Hillary Clinton. And women have it especially rough in MA, it seems. She needed to be exceptional, and she wasn't even close....
Posted on January 18, 2010 12:14 AM
Looking at that PPP poll, they have Obama 44% approval rating in their likely sample... They really are polling a conservative bunch... Even Rasmussen gives Obama a 57% appoval in their samples....
Posted on January 18, 2010 12:43 AM
The ppp internals are mostly obama voters. 56-37 they voted for obama over mccain. The sample is not to conservative, whats happening is quite obvious. Obama is losing support everywhere. He is ramming thru a highly unpopular piece of legislation that no one really likes and he is paying a high price for it.
He is becoming toxic....He is losing moderate support. Moderates voted for him, they bought into his centrast rhetoric during the campaign....and now that he is clearly a far left wingnut, they are rurning on him, even in Mass.
Posted on January 18, 2010 1:11 AM
"Congress is nothing than a rich man or woman's club."
Not many women. I believe congress is only 17% female, putting us on a par with Uzbekistan. I think the Netherlands or Switzerland have the most - something like 40% women in their parliaments.
Posted on January 18, 2010 1:50 AM
Posted on January 18, 2010 5:51 AM
Comments: (you may use HTML tags for style)
Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.
Please email us to report offensive comments.
See our comment policy here. Note that we require commenters to share their email address via Typekey. We will never share your email address with anyone without your explicit permission.
MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR