Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

MA: Brown 52 Coakley 45 (ARG 1/15-17)


American Research Group
1/15-1/17/10; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(ARG release)

Massachusetts

2010 Senate
52% Brown, 45% Coakley, 2% Kennedy (chart)

 

Comments
TR in VA:

wow.... even bigger

____________________

LordMike:

She's now losing 23% of Democrats... Amazing, really... I guess Obama screwing over his base is now showing a real effect...

____________________

Lou-NH:

23% Dem support? Kos poll at the same time shows 9%. Someone is way off here. This race is going to be a nail biter, however, having lived in this area for almost 20 years, I would not bet against the Dems GOTV effort.

____________________

LordMike:

The Suffolk poll asked respondents who they thought would win. Most thought Coakley would win. I wonder if anyone is asking that now and what the response would be.

____________________

John Sheridan:

Following this race reminds of the Corzine Christie race in NJ. A blue progressive state with pundits calling it to close to call, a nail biter! It was not! Christie won handily! When the polling numbers lean to candidate, that typically would be trailing because of party affilation, look for that candidate to win. Brown clearly has the momentum. This race will be called before the 11PM news.

____________________

Edward:

New Insider Advantage Poll taken LAST NIGHT has Brown up 9 Points!! Its over baby!

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31621.html

____________________

Lou-NH:

John Sheridan:
How many Mass voters have you spoken to? I am at 300 now and the Dem GOTV is lighting up. If the Dems show up which I suspect they will this race will be close. If the weather is bad it hurts the Indy turn-out which is bad for Brown.

Wouldn't it be nice if trendlines worked every time? No one would ever have to actually show up and vote.

____________________

CUWriter:

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM136_100118_insideradvantage_politico_mass_poll.html

Might want to add this one too Mr. Blumenthal... It's 52-43 Brown according to Insider Advantage/POLITICO in this one.

____________________

StatyPolly:
____________________

Stillow:

LordMike - this is not a case of obama screwing over its base. The Dem party consists of more than just liberals. There simply are not enough "liberals" to win elections. The Dem defections of 20+ percent are your more moderate to conservative Democrat who is sick and tired of the crap they see fro mthere own party.

____________________

StatyPolly:

Ooops, CUWriter, you beat me to it..


What's interesting in this one, is that the young'uns are supporting Brown in high #'s.

New face of Hope and Change?

____________________

LordMike:

Stillow, you are wrong... According to Rasmussen, Health Care is the #1 issue of 80% of all democrats... that's not just "liberals"... What you consider to be only "liberal" issues are important to most of the base.

Dems are staying home... what does that tell you? It's not 'cos the party is governing too much like Republicans (which they are).... If Democratic voters wanted that, they'd vote Republican!

Anyways, just came into say that apparently, Scottie Rasmussen won't be doing a final poll. He has a final "analysis" in which, if Democrats show up, she wins... if they stay home, she doesn't... pretty safe and conventional analysis.

____________________

LordMike:

Staty,

Why wouldn't the youth support him? He's the "celebrity" right now... just like Obama was a year ago...

____________________

Stillow:

I am still in a state of shock at what is happening here. Mass? Really? Mass to put in a republican to fill Teddy's seat o nthe cusp of passing HCR? Really?

Nobody...and I mean nobody expected this to evolve this way!

political history is being made here my freinds....this is amazing what is happening here.


____________________

John Sheridan:

LOU-NH I can certainly appreciate your optimism, keep it to the end. But in the end, the result will be the same, BROWN WINS! As for the weather affecting voter turn out, the impact will be minimal, if at all. Remember, BROWNS voters are energized, angry voters that want REAL change. Neither hell, nor high water will keep them from the polls. But GLTY anyway!

____________________

Stillow:

Lordmike - I can appreicate your disagreement on this one. Witnessing a blow this big to your own cause has to hurt. I hope the left wing party establishment feels as you do. Because it will mean even bigger wins for the GOP later this year. Yes Dems watn HCR, but no, they do not want what Pelosi and Reid are giving them and calling HCR.

____________________

LordMike:

Well, I have to agree with you there, Stillow... the base really wanted the public option. In fact, they deliberately stripped out every popular provision in the bill to please the conservadems. It's their obstruction that's the bane of the party. As Sheridan said, people want change and we weren't able to give it to them 'cos of the obstruction within the party.

So, it's not that the party was too "liberal"... "liberal" would have been fine had it delevered real results... It's 'cos of the obstruction of the corrupt "conservadems" that prevented aything from getting done, and shifted the overton window to the right. So, now the party as a whole doesn't look good.

And the voters reward us with an obstructionist which will make things even worse. Great! Obstruction is rewarded, so why should the GOP stop?

Of course, it's not just me, but 30 million people desperate for access to health care whom the GOP feels should just die quickly and decrease the surplus population. That is appalling for the supposedly "christian" party to promote.

____________________

rob:

Bellwether polling, conducted Saturday, Jan. 16, and Sunday, Jan. 17, shows:

Brown (55%) leads Coakley (40%) by 15 points in Gardner. Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy polls 2%, while 3% are undecided.

In Fitchburg, Brown (55%) has a 14-point lead over Coakley (41%), with 2% for Kennedy and 2% undecided.

Peabody voters give Brown (57%), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40%), with Kennedy polling 1% and 3% undecided.

The bellwether polls are designed to predict outcomes and not margins. Suffolk's bellwether polls have been 96% accurate in picking straight-up winners when taken within three days of an election since 2006.

____________________

Stillow:

LordMike - honestly, it sounds really foolishto blame conservatives. Dems cotrol everything. you have your 60 in the senate, you have a huge majoiryt in the house and you occupy the WH....yet you still blame republicans. Libs are still with you...they are not happy about it, but liberals are still pushing thsi HCR....its moderates who have totally abandoned you. brown will win indy's HEAVILY, win or lose, he will carry Indy's by a huge margin.

Try to understand this, there are NOT enough liberals to effect change and win elections....conservatives can, but cosn represent a much larger percentage of the population.....libs are just to large a minoritity to force the majority to go along with them.

brown's camapign theme is being the vote that will stop HCR.....its not abortion, guns, or anything else....he nationalized the race and made it about HCR and even in Mass its owrking. Can you imagine if this were say PA or OH? brown owuld be up by 20 points.

The only thin tha tmay save Coakley is the pure blueness of Mass....

I beleive tomorrow night many many Dems will run for the hills.

I also think privately there are a lot of Dems who are hoping brown wins so he can stop this HCR from passing....I think Dem insiders know if it passes, they will become a minoirty party for many years to come.

This is pure liberal arrogance. Despite approval for HCR in the 30's....typical liberal arrogance wants to shove it down everyones throat. Well the sleezy tactics are catching up to you and the people will reject it....and not just in Mass. but come november when you lose seats you didn't think were possible to lose.

____________________

TR in VA:

The WEATHER is NOT going to be an issue. Rain and snow in BOS-- NOT even pure snow in Mid Jan -- is NOT a big deal.

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

Well, Stillow, I hope the republicans will fix health care when they take power again, because the dems have failed so miserably.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR