Articles and Analysis


MA: Coakley 48 Brown 48 (DailyKos/R2000 1/15-17)

DailyKos.com / Research 2000
1/15-17/10; 500 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(DailyKos story, crosstabs)


2010 Senate
48% Coakley (D), 48% Brown (R), 3% Kennedy (L) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Brown: 51 / 30
Coakley: 58 / 31



This poll may be more accurate because it was actual telephone interviews. The others were all automated. For me, it is champagne if Coakley wins, Jim Beam to drown out the disappointment if she loses.



This is obviously a more Democratic crowd, see by the favorables. We will see, but I know see no one emerging witha clear vistory until late in the evening. I have to eat my words about the 6 point victory as I just did not see this coming. The President needs to heed some thing from this election: (1) return to your middle of the road approach you have lived buy; (2) adopt deficit reduction measures now and should a critical part of the SOTU speech (recommend commission to force reduction in deficits and entitlements and paygo); (3) draft your own job bill that includes significant tax credits and suggest a major expiring tax cut for everyone earning under 250K; (4) vet these candidates better (you have penalty of law and order military types in the Democratic party and I suspect we can run them); and (5) pass a health reform now based on a stripped Senate bill and then come back later for the rest once you have retorsed confidence in the concept (note, you need to pass something now so tell the members that).



If the Daily Kooks has them at a tie that means in reality Brown is up by at least 20 points...



If Kos could not move numbers around to get Coakley ahead, this race may be all but over.

All I can say is unbeleivable what we are witnessing.


Field Marshal:

This is definitely an outlier poll compared to the rest of them.

The race hinges on turnout and the if you aren't "excited" enough to respond to an automated poll, then you are not likely to go out and wait in line to vote.

If Kos has them tied, it probably means Brown is up by 3-4 in polling. But again, it all depends on turnout.


Billy Chunge:

Actually R2K is a pretty reliable pollster, a lot better than PPP in my opinion. Look at NY-23 election before bashing them. They got it pretty right. Also, Scott Brown latest 2 gaffes about Obama and the curling iron are going to hurt a lot more than people are expecting. It will be close.



The problem with this poll is that is presumes only 10% of dems will defect, as opposed to the ~20% from other pollsters. However, she gets significantly lower indy support than in PPP and other polls, so they may balance. Now, this is a live interview poll, one of the first in a long time. It probably presumes increased democratic turnout, which is likely at this point in time.

Weather may play a role here as well. Rain and snow generally hurts democratic voters, but in the Bay State it's the opposite. The machine stays intact, while indies stay home. We'll see how mad the indies are if they are willing to trudge through the mush for a victory that all but seems assured.

I guess Teddy didn't make his peace with God to see a man succeed him that will try to destroy everything he worked for... tragedy.

I suspect there will be some significant buyers remorse once MA residents actually find out he's a real teabagger (he's pretending not to be a hard right republican, but he is).



Wow, now is blame the pollster on the other side. I think that it could be that they are tied based on this sample. I think that after NY-23 we should be careful to assume anybody got it right.

BTW, let us remember that Mass has elected Republicans to statewide office before remember William Weld and Mitt Romney. This is an open seat and anything can happen. Coakley is aweful, we have a 10 percent employment rate and the President is actually trying to pass HCR. I am surprised but not stunned at this point. Also, anything can happen.

As I noted above, I see the President adopting a more middle the road approach prior to the November. Combined with helpful economics , I do not see the Dems losing the house or senate. But as I noted in a previous blog is early...



I don't think Rasmussen's done a poll... They make no mention of an "upcoming" poll on their site, which they normally would do. Unless they plan on releasing very late... I wonder why they didn't want to poll this weekend? Too variable of a race on a holiday weekend perhaps?



Field Marshal,

The weather is supposed to be pretty lousy, so I think this helps Brown.

We'll see..



Lousy weather helps Coakley... In MA, indies stay home on bad weather days, but partisans go out and vote...


Final ARG Poll just out shows Brown 52% to Coakley 45%.

It's almost over - http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/



Final ARG poll has Brown up 7

Brown 52

Coakley 45

I think that will actually be the final result, Brown by 5-7 points, especially given the weather conditions for tomorrow in Mass., someone who is not excited to vote for their candidate will not go out in the weather.



Just some snow showers are forecasted. And afterall it's January in the Northeast, people are used to this weather. I know studies show weather does have an impact on turnout I just don't think in this case it will be that significant



My Prediction is a slight win by Coakley. If I am wrong, I am sure it will be by 1 or 2 percentage points and will demand a waiting period. If Coakley is ahead by a little bit before the absentees are counted, there is absolutely no other choice than to wait. In NY's 19th district which is just a few miles from where I live in VT, a unknown Democrat Scott Murphy was behind in the special election. The absentees gave Murphy the boost. Tedisco had a 2 or 3 point lead coming into the race. This is a very red district unlike Mass. and I was not even expecting it to be close. You never know.




Absentees favor Brown 'cos Coakley sat on her behind and didn't GOTV early.



"This poll may be more accurate because it was actual telephone interviews"

I don't get this argument. The evidence from November anyway showed that actual telephone interviews were less accurate than automated polls in VA & in New Jersey where the average actually predicted a Corzine win. We will see tomorrow. This spread in nearly every poll on Pollster (Obama approval, Mass Senate Race) when you filter Auto vs. Live interview polls is significant. One of the methods is missing something right now.



It is amazing how many articles by very good pollsters have been written regarding this race and the blogs just spin each poll to his or her own desires. There are two great articles right on this site and 538 has a couple as well. I have been phone banking from NH (just about 250 calls) and I think this will be a nail biter. Many Mass voters have told me they are heavily screening their calls because of robocalls and GOTV efforts. They are not as used to all of the election drama like we are in NH. I am told automated polling doesn't work well under these conditions. Also, I expect a cell only skew from the Boston / Suburb areas which will largely be Coakley voters.

To saj102:
I agree that the president needs to move more to a fiscal center. Most of what this president has done has been by circumstances beyond his control. Pay-go is great ... imagine if they followed it during the Bush years ... The debt would not have more than doubled. Two wars and 3 tax cuts without any effort to pay for it. Where were the fiscal conservatives then?




Yes, I would agree with you, but the intensity gap is so huge, there may be a self-selection bias that presents her more than in other places...


TR in VA:

the argument some far left wingers are making that research 2000/ dailykos Kook poll is more relaible is fooking absurd.

The far left will accuse with No evidence that Rasmussen is Biased towards the GOP even though Nate silver over five thirtyeight
has said is total bullshit-- but when research 2000 blasts Rush's Haiti position... that doesnt bother far left kooks.



@ TR

All polling aside, are you actually saying there was any defense of Rush "Haiti position"? (as if he actually had a "position" on the subject beyond simply opposing the president because he doesn't like him)

The President was doing his job, trying to get the government in motion in order to save lives. For Rush to bleat and whine about him "exploiting the situation" is just another example of how pitiful a human being he is.

As for Rass, he's a good pollster, but he does have a house effect that skews conservative, just as some have a house effect that skews liberal. This is because of his models and question wording. Do yourself a favor: go back and actually READ what Nate Silver said on the subject.


Post a comment

Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.