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MA: Coakley 53 Brown 36 (Globe/UNH 1/2-6)


Boston Globe / University of New Hampshire Survey Center
1/2-6/10; 554 likely voters, 4.2% margin of error
Mode: Live interviewer phone
(Globe article, results & crosstabs)

Massachusetts

2010 Senate (trends)
53% Martha Coakley (D), 36% Scott Brown (R), 5% Joe L. Kennedy (i), 5% undecided

2010 Governor
30% Deval Patrick (D), 23% Tim Cahill (i), 19% Charlie Baker (R)
32% Deval Patrick (D), 23% Tim Cahill (i), 19% Christy Mihos (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Brown: 44 / 25
Coakley: 61 / 26
Joe L. Kennedy: 11 / 21
Patrick: 39 / 50
Baker: 19 / 13
Cahill: 39 / 15
Mihos: 22 / 33

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Patrick: 41 / 52

Let me ask you a question about healthcare. The U.S. House and Senate have just passed overhauls of the nation's heath care system that they say will cover people without insurance and lower health care costs. Based on what you have seen or heard, do you favor or oppose the health care reform legislation that is going through Congress?
43% favor, 36% oppose, 3% neutral, 18% don't know

 

Comments
Stillow:

Hmmm. This is a smaller sample than the PPP poll and taken a few days prior also. PPP was a robo poll and this is live interviews. we saw in NJ that corzine always did much better in live interview polling and Christie did better in robo polling. Some attribute this to people not wanting to actually admit they were voting for Christie while talking live to someone...after, like MA, NJ is deeply blue.

If turn out was high on both sides, this result might be solid, but i suspect turnout will be slanted towards Brown.....not enoguh to win, but enough to make the Dems sweat a little on election night. Probably a 52-46 win for Coakly.

Depending on how close it is, it may make purple and red state Dems much more nervous abouts upporting HCR if they wish to keep there jobs. Mass is so overwhelmingly blue that you can get away with it, but in purple or red states....Dems not wanting to be fired in November may get a little more doubt pumped into there brain about some upcoming votes on the highly unpopular HCR.

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Field Marshal:

Stillow,

Did you see Reid comments about Obama? But of course the wingnuts on this site will whine about how the Reps are the one's who are racist. LOL.

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twitter.com/strobe3:

Don't get your hopes up FM..there is a big difference between what Reid said and what Trent Lott said.

Reid: Obama light skinned and doesn't speak Negro dialect, unless he wants to

Explanation: There is more than enough documented evidence based on research that light skinned blacks are perceived as less aggressive ant threatening than blacks who have a darker shade..they are also perceived to be smarter. This harkens back to the days of the paper bag test and house/field slaves..so it is nothing new to black people. If you take a look around the entertainment industry or politics..most of the mainstream blacks are of a lighter shade...Bryant Gumbel, Deval Patrick, Will Smith..it is what it is and we (I am black) have accepted it to be thus. Black people have those predispositions too,so its not a race thing.

As far as the Negro Dialect, however ancient the word Negro is, I understand. Obama does not talk like someone out of the hood, and neither does his wife. That's why the rap against Obama since the beginning from African Americans is that he is not "black" in the Jackson/Sharpton sense. He is educated, Ivy league trained so I would not expect him to use slang..and you see how incompetent when someone who is not down tries to use the lingo..like Michael Steele, the man trying to bring "hip hop" to the Republican party. I won't even go into that.

Lott said: If Strom Thurmmond were made president things would be alot different.

Explantion: That's like someone saying if Hitler would have been alive things would be alot different. Or, if Malcolm X had become president, things would be alot different. Thurmmond was a renowned racist..voting against any measure that gave blacks any rights, and I'm sure you are aware of Hitler and Malcolm X's "vision"

So, while it was an idiotic thing for him to say, private or public, it does not bother me..and if it bothered you...then you have not been in this country long enough to know that perception, right or wrong, is everything.

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LordMike:

"Dems not wanting to be fired in November may get a little more doubt pumped into there brain about some upcoming votes on the highly unpopular HCR."

By not voting for it, then, they would seal their politcal death warrants. They already "paid the price" for even considering it, by failing to complete the job, their remaining supporters will end up staying home in addition to the wishy washy "independents" who seem to flip every 2 years. It would be a slaughter.

PPP has commented on this extensively. Not passing HCR would not help improve the standing of blue dogs... it would actually make things much worse for them. Had blue dogs not acted as such visible obstructionists during the health care debate, they would not be in such a precarious position right now. The bill would have passed months ago, and they could focus on obstructing other bills to try to hurt their party, thereby dragging themselves down along with them.

As for turnout, the article accompanying this poll mentions they expect 35%. I don't know if that is the magic number or not, but maybe that's a benchmark. Above 35% good for dems, less than that worse... who knows!

The indies are different in this poll compared to PPP's. PPP has lots more indies voting, and they are different indies than those presented here (most likely tebaggers who no longer identify with the GOP). Rasmussen also expects few indies to vote as well, so that will be something interesting to watch the next week or so.

I suspect that Scott Rasmussen has a poll in the field today which will come out tomorrow or Tuesday. If we don't see anything from rasmussen in the next couple of days, that would suggest that the Globe is right more than wrong.

I personally trust the automated polls much more than I trust these media polls, even though the Globe is supposedly the gold standard in MA politics, like the U of Cincinnati poll is the gold standard in Ohio. The difference here, is the weird dynamics of a special election can mess everything up. All the media polls were terribly wrong in NJ, but to be fair, that's a three way race which is so incredibly hard to poll, 'cos you don't know which way the third party voters will break at the end.

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Stillow:

FM - Ya, I saw the Reid negro comment...unbeleivable...but as usual being a lib he will get a total pass and it will be explained away and go down as a non issue.

can you imagine if Sarah palin had said that? My God, the media would have her hanged outside her Wasilla home by now....the double standard is amazing, but when the media is dominated by libs, what can ya do?

reid is a patehtic excuse for a statesman...i assure you 100 percent he will not be re-elected to the senate this year.

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Aaron_in_TX:

Most liberals I know including myself don't think much of Reid.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"As far as the Negro Dialect, however ancient the word Negro is, I understand. Obama does not talk like someone out of the hood, and neither does his wife."

If you read Obama's books, you'd see that he would agree with what Reid said. Obama himself recognized years ago that he had the advantages of his race with few of the disadvantages usually associated with it. This is precisely because of his education and irregular upbringing for a black person.

People are screaming "Racist!" simply because Reid used the word "negro." That is insensitive but not racist. Racism implies a belief in the intrinsic inferiority or superiority of certain races over others. Being insensitive, clumsy, or plain dense in your word choice does not make you racist.

The allegations of racism from both sides ever since Obama started running for president are ridiculous.

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Aaron_in_TX:

Still, using the word "negro" in the 21st century certainly makes one sound like a racist. Reid is an idiot. I don't think he needs to resign over this, but I'd really prefer he retire.

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Louis:

Despite all the nonsense about health reform being unpopular. Every poll(even Rasmussen) show when you break the bill in to its constituent parts they are quite popular. The irony is that the public option which is the most popular single element won't be in the bill.
My guess for the final results Coakley 55%, Brown 42%, J. Kennedy 3%. It could be slightly closer if there is a very low turnout and a little higher if the turnout is higher than expected.

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Stillow:

Louis

Polling on th publica option for example relies heavily on how the question is asked....just as every other poll question. If you ask do you favor the g'ment offering an alternative to private insurance, you will get a higher support....if you ask that same question and follow it with even if it means you will pay higher taxes and potentially be exposed to rationing, etc....then support drops way off.

Its all about how the question is worded.....as is the case with all issue polling, which explains why pollsters can get wildly different results on the same issue.

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LordMike:

"if you ask that same question and follow it with even if it means you will pay higher taxes and potentially be exposed to rationing, etc....then support drops way off."

Well, of course if you lie about the public option, then you'll get a different result. The public option was going to be funded by premiums, just like everything else... not tax dollars, and there would be no more "rationing" than any private insurer would do.

Part of the problem with health care reform's "unpopularity" is that too many people believe the lies of the right wingers.

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Aaron_in_TX:

Most of what I hear about health care reform is bad. All you hear is people complain about one thing or the other about it on the news. The issue is so complex it was unlikely to garner much support. Even though there's broad agreement on many of the individual reforms, people don't like the package.

It's not like being for a war or against a war, or even for a more nuanced position like supporting a surge in order to create a condition where the war can be drawn down. With health care there's many things not to like because everyone's ideas and needs are different.

Unfortunately, people don't seem to understand that with the way congress and our political system works, failure on health care now would mean that it would not be addressed again for years - at least one and likely two administrations down the road. In which time the worst problems would only exacerbate further.

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Stillow:

LordMike, what you call lies, everyone else calls commen sense. To most of us, just adding a bit of logic and asking ourselves.......if we add 30 million more people to the system...without a plan to add more doctors and hospitals, then geeeee, that will mean much longer waits and rationing of care. You can't expand the system by 30 million without a plan to increase the infrastructure to accomodate them!!!!!!!! common sense.

And there are many many doctors out there saying HCR will put them out of business and they may just close up shop. As we find with medicare, a public option run by the g'ment would most certianly not pay its full portion of its bill, thus passing it onto me and everyone else with a private plan. So a public option not only increases my wait times, exposes me to rationing, but it will also increase my rates because i once again have topay for the g'ment's shortfall as I currently do with the medicare shortfall!!

So what you call lies, the majoirity, or at least a plurality depending o nthe poll call common sense!!

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Stillow:

Aaron

That is a good point....people lack the understanding the of the entire bill, support or oppose....luckily though we can turn on cspan and watch the talks.......oh wait, we can't....pelosi's most transparent, open and honest congress ever is doing everything behind closed doors.....my bad, sorry!

by the way, how many lies does that make now from obama's campaign? I lost count at about 10.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"pelosi's most transparent, open and honest congress ever is doing everything behind closed doors.."

Do you ever watch CSPAN's coverage of committee hearings or floor debates? Very few people ever do, so it's funny to me that conservatives are suddenly very interested in watching it. It's soooo boring, lol.

Whenever I watch it, I notice the congressmen say things very much designed for public consumption and it's clear the outcome of the floor debate or committee meeting was already decided before the cameras were ever on them. I watched some of the deliberations and votes of the Senate Finance Committee when they were drafting their version of health care reform. Everyone knew how they were going to vote before they entered the room. All the real work obviously took place elsewhere.

So while I agree in principle with putting conference committee deliberations on CSPAN, I imagine it would have just taken time away from the real work that needs to be done so that the bill can be signed before the state of the union. The decision was probably based on time considerations.

While it was founded with good intentions, CSPAN is mostly theatre now, kind of like pro wrestling.

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Louis:

Health care is rationed today. It is rationed by the insurance companies and by the number of dollars you have in your wallet. So the issue has never been rationing vs. non rationing. but whether we can assure that basic health care is available to everyone. Medicare does this for seniors and it works,Extending this system to all is simply basic logic.
This is why virtually every major country in the world has some version of it and they all spend less per capita on medical care and live longer than we do.

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Field Marshal:

twitter.com/strobe3: :

I agree. There is a difference between what Lott said and what Reid said. Lott was stating fact. Things probably would be a lot different if Thurmond was elected.

Reid on the other hand said Obama doesnt "use a negro dialect". Most black people would take offense to that. Not only because of the use of the word "negro" but suggesting that Obama is somehow better because he doesn't have THAT dialect.

If you excoriate Lott for his comments, to not do the same for Reid is just hypercritical. But of course, as we all know, that's the liberals biggest MO.

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Field Marshal:

"Medicare does this for seniors and it works,Extending this system to all is simply basic logic."

Sure. Its only $50 trillion in the hole but it works. LOL.

We do have basic care to all. No one is denied care right now if they go to a hospital with an ailment.

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twitter.com/strobe3:

FM

You didnt read my post..I am black. I understand. Light skinned and dark skinned blacks understand this..I don't understand why its hard for non-blacks to. Let's say you are looking at resumes and you see a white person from Conneticut or someone from Alabam..more than likely you would think the Alabama person is a hick..not knowing that view might be fueled by perceptions of people from Alabam on T.V. When you see light skinned blacks...Halle Berry, Collin Powell and others they see more refined and such..while darker skinned are the ones on T.V screaming. I think that is why more people are fascinated by Michelle than Barack because she is brown skinned and we rarely see brown skinned black women on t.v that are refined.

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Field Marshal:

Strobe3,

I said i agree with you. Most of the bias is ingrained from experiences in most people since they were small children.

I don't think what Reid said, nor what Lott said, was racist at all. They merely spoke facts that were on their minds on topics that are still very sensitive to some people.

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Louis:

Field Marshell,
What planet do you live on people are denied basic health care every day. My own doctor is livid that he is not able to treat patients who need treatment because of the insurance companies and is a supporter of the single payer system. But the belief that anyone can get basic health care is just wrong.Hospitials dump indigent patients every day. Clincs are overwhelmed by the demand. Your statement just shows how far fromm the reality of health care some people are.

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Stillow:

Louis

Countires like Germany and Canada are trying despeately to find ways to bring private carriers back int othere system.....because single payer is not sustainable long term, it simply is not. The current hcr rasies costs for everyone, makes it more difficult for doctors to treat and will result in much much longer waits. You libs don't seem to understand the basic concept of infrastructure.

You cannot just add 30 million people without a plan to accomodate the increase.....HCR as it is now will actually decrease the numbe rof doctors and hospitals......

Many parts of this hcr will be found unconstitutional like the individual mandate....so soem of it will be picked apart and tossed out in the courts, much of th rest will be repealed by a future congress and president.

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Aaron_in_TX:

@FM

What Reid said and what Lott said was insulting and insensitive but not racist. You're right about that. But I still think what Lott said was a little worse. Reid was referring to political likeability by suggesting Obama was a black candidate that would be less threatening to white voters. This is demeaning to blacks but Reid was probably thinking of former black candidates like Jesse Jackson.

Lott suggested that things would have been better if Strom Thurmond had been elected in 1948 on a segregationist platform. So in other words, a president that would have resisted civil rights was preferable. I find that a little more insulting. However, it was a comment at a party for Thurmond and probably not serious.

Now these comments were both taken out of context and not meant for the public.

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Stillow:

Aaron - you lefties slammed Cheney every day for hdoling energy consultations behind closed doors.....all I heard from libs is where is the transparency? How cn you form soemthing as important as energy policy behind closed doors, blah blah......but now you libs are perfectly fine with everything being done in secret....votes held at midnight in the dead of darkness.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Countires like Germany and Canada are trying despeately to find ways to bring private carriers back int othere system"

You have a link for that? Because it's news to me. Germany's health care system already includes supplementary private insurance for those who can afford it.

Germany's universal health system is the oldest in the world. They INVENTED the principle of universal coverage in the 1870s and 80s under Bismarck so I doubt seriously they are trying to dismantle it. Merkel attempted reforms in 2006 that she had to discontinue because of lack of public support.

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Stillow:

aaron - of course you thbink what Lott said was worse....he was trying to make an old man happy...............I would be you eevery dime I have that if any republican said what Reid said, all you libs woudl be screaming at the top of your lungs that its racist, you'd be demanding resignations, etc...........

Race always exposes the utter hypocrisy on the left.

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twitter.com/strobe3:

@Stillow

No. The left does not always shield its own..racism is racism. In the book,allegedly, Bill Clinton said Obama would be serving him coffee just a few years back. That is racist. But I don't believe Clinton is a racist. What he is...is an opportunist who will use whomever (including his wife) to get what he wants. To call Clinton racist, is like saying the only color in the rainbow is blue.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"n the book,allegedly, Bill Clinton said Obama would be serving him coffee just a few years back."

It's been reported prior to this book that Clinton said a lot of disparaging things about Obama to Ted Kennedy trying to influence his endorsement. Clinton knew that endorsement was crucial, probably the only one that really mattered in the whole primary process. It's also clear Bill doesn't personally like Obama all that much, but then I don't think Hillary likes her husband all that much either.

I think the comment was in reference to Obama's inexperience - meaning he should be an intern rather than a presidential candidate.

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Field Marshal:

Agreed Stillow. Its ridiculous. While some would say what Lott said is worse, others would clearly say what Reid said was worse as he implied that Obama is only electable BECAUSE he is light skinned and doesn't talk like a rapper. Is it racist? Well, i have no idea nor do i really care. The word has become so diluted by deluded (like what i did there?) left wingers that it has no meaning any more. But, it only serves to reason that if the left forced Lott to resign over such comments, that they should do the same for Reid. Unless of course, they hypocrites. And we all know that can't be!

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Stillow:

Just look at arron's reply......on what Clinton said. Libs have ZERO intelectual honesty when it comes to race. Again, pointing out the obvious, had a republican said what Clinton said......the reaction would have been totally different. Had a Democrat said what Lott said, it would have been explained away as an innocent little remark just trying to make an old man happy on oen of his final birthdays.....

Liberals disgust me when it comes t orace.

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Thaddeus:

It's amazing that Aaron can even say that the Lott comment was at a party and probably wasn't serious and still gets hammered. As far as I remember, it wasn't a dem firestorm that took down Lott, his own party of opportunists took him down the next day. There was talk that night of people who wanted his job working the phones to get him voted out the next day. But let's remember what he said on Live TV:
Lott's Statement "I want to say this about my state: When Strom Thurmond ran for president, we voted for him. We're proud of it. And if the rest of the country had followed our lead, we wouldn't have had all these problems over all these years, either,"
The Platform read in part..."We stand for the segregation of the races and the racial integrity of each race."

And I agree with a earlier comment that Palin would have been crucified if she had made the remark. She would have...by FOX, because it would have been her commenting that Obama was, Qualified to be President and electable. Something I think she still maintains he's not.

As for negro Dialect, bad word choice, but I think there's still people working to have Ebonics recognized as an separate language, or did that movement end?

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