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Marist: CO, VA (10/26-28)

Topics: PHome

Marist Poll
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Colorado 10/27-28; 682 LV, 4%
Obama 51, McCain 45

Virginia 10/26-27; 671 LV, 4%
Obama 51, McCain 47

 

Comments
Trosen:

Obama +50 in each one.. good. closest VA poll I've seen in a while. This is where GOTV will close the deal.

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Trosen:

By the way.. same Marist poll has O+3 in OH and +13 in PA.

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Trosen:

Ok.. guys.. I'm going to make all the trolls' wet dreams come true and see where that would leave us....

Here's a hypothetical beyond-best case in a million years scenario for McCain..

**AMAZING NEWS**

John McCain has pulled off an incredible comeback in this race. Despite a tough battle he has HELD ON TO FL..

MT and ND looked a little shaky.. but they held red!

AZ looked like it might turn.. but he kept his home state red.

MO and IN after making McCain sweat.. stay red!!

GA was looking scary there.. AA turnout was unreal.. but it held for McCain..

Ok.. now the *HUGE ONES!!!*

NC, after showing McCain down for weeks.. has held red! NC to McCain!!

OH, after over a week of sizable leads for Obama, stays red for McCain!!

And the big one... get ready for it.. **MCCAIN FLIPS PA TO RED IN ELECTION NIGHT SHOCKER!!!**


Unbelievable.. the old man came through with an unreal comeback.. now let's look at the EV total..


Obama 270

McCain 268

D'OH!!!!!!!!!


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NHBlue:

@Trosen -- I like it. Gives NH to make up for 2000.

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NHBlue:

sorry -- a chance to make up

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deeznutsrepubs:

the conservative movement is over.


In 4 years, the dems will have 4 more years of voters, those that are in the 14-17 age group. Who do you think these kids will vote for??

this is just the beginning .....the army is coming.


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Viperlord:

The Republicans will certainly be back, but this does have the potential to be the next major realignment.

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PortlandRocks:

Gallop Obama up 1 or more in all models!

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Obama008:

I think the nation will take a side step to the left on election day. Which is a good thing get us from right leaning center, to just center.

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adocarbog:

PA Tracker (Morning Call) just out
Obama 54% (+1)
McCain 41% (-1)

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truebljb1:

Fox Opinion Dynamics

Last Week 49 - 40
Today 47-44

Big Closing

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Zeidan:

All I know is Virginia is the easiest path to the White House for Obama. If he wins that, he's going to win the election.

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laguna_b:

Thump! Thump! Thump! Thump! Thump! Thump!
The sound of the dirt hitting tthe top of McCains' campaign coffin and stuck inside with him is the resto f the neocons....they are screaming at each other! And Sarah is dancing on the top of the coffin planning to embarass everyone in 2012!

We OWN the country for 8 years! Lets not screw it up!

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lhtk:

Marist kind of like Rasmussen in their polling consistently having Obama's margin as less than multiple other polls of the same state.

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BridgeportJoe:

Fox Opinion Dynamics

Last Week 49 - 40
Today 47-44

Big Closing

I note that the demos last week were 43D-37R, and the demos this week are 41D-39R. That explains 2/3 of the movement in and of itself. It's a 49-42 lead with the same partisan breakdown.

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nyt:

VA not looking too good. Down to M.o.E.
If Obama takes VA and PA at 19:00 on Tuesday the game is over.
Otherwise we're gonna be in for another long election night (or season.)
Should I head over to PA this weekend or down to VA to help out with this?

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tar_heel:

Small samples. And the VA poll includes numbers from McCain's high water mark--last Sunday. Sundays are great for the Republicans because folks go to church.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Sweep!!!

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politicalmomma2:

NYT -- If you are concerned and want to contribute, you might consider PA. It's more of a must-win for O and VA is also benefiting from lots of Democratic help from neighboring areas like DC and MD.

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Mister H.:

Should I head over to PA this weekend or down to VA to help out with this?


I'm in Colorado....so I can't do it.

I'd go to Virginia. Based on recent polls, Obama can win without Pennsylvania (which is simply incredible if true). But McCain MUST carry Virginia in order to have any hope.

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Inkan1969:

@nyt

What's wrong with the VA poll? It's about the same order of magnitude as the Ras polls of VA. I wasn't expecting a full 10 point win. So 4-7 sounds pretty nice to me.

And the CO are solid.

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Northeastern Republican:

here is something i must mention. earlier this week the mccain campaign said their internal polling showed them roughly 3 behind in virginia. this is at least the second poll now showing obama with a 4 point lead in virginia. maybe the mccain campaign wasn't lying and they are indeed closer than everyone thought. wouldnt suprise me entirely - it takes a lot to turn a solid red state blue or vice versa. difficult to believe it will happen by a wide margin.

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Northeastern Republican:

here is something i must mention. earlier this week the mccain campaign said their internal polling showed them roughly 3 behind in virginia. this is at least the second poll now showing obama with a 4 point lead in virginia. maybe the mccain campaign wasn't lying and they are indeed closer than everyone thought. wouldnt suprise me entirely - it takes a lot to turn a solid red state blue or vice versa. difficult to believe it will happen by a wide margin.

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RaleighNC:

Don't believe the hype about VA. It will remain red...this election.

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SmarterThanYou:

This as well as the Rasmussen poll for Colorado were taking on the 26th almost exclusively. This was the sunday in which McCain got his biggest boost of the election cycle. As you see the CNN poll was taken 2 days later. You can see the difference.

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