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Marist: IA, NH (10/22-23)

Topics: PHome

Marist College
10/22-23/08
Mode: IVR

Iowa 645 LV, 4%
Obama 52, McCain 42

New Hampshire 655 LV, 4%
Obama 50, McCain 45

 

Comments

What is happening in NH? Too many polls are showing the gap closing to ignore it.

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Trosen:

tmt, nothing. This same poll had Obama only up 3 last month. So it's actually a good improvement. It's not that close in NH, trust me.

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NorthernObserver:

I'm not sure of that tmtoulouse. The poll itself says: " Neither candidate has made significant inroads in the Granite State in the past month."

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ThisLandIsMyLand:

why is McCain putting so much effort into Iowa? Is there some shenanigans there? Do they have some plan to steal the election, as nothing in the poll numbers for the last 2 months should give McCain any reason to think he has a prayer there..

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mrut:

I'm just working for a win. New Hampshirites--including McCain supporters--anticipate a strong Obama win, but we won't know until 4 November. I suspect it will be Obama at +4 or +5 in the end.

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mrut:

@ThisLand

McCain doesn't have any good options and he's counting on Palin to win over Iowa religious conservatives. It doesn't seem to be working, though.

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I guess I was thinking NH was closer to double digits than it really is. But ground game is what counts, I know in my home state of NM we were polled at around O+5 for a long time, it was never really that close.

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Lou-NH:

The UNH poll showed him up by quite a bit while Ras only gave him 4. This is a very independent minded state with fiscal conservative leanings. NH by no means is set in stone, however, judging from lawn signs and the GOTV effort getting ready to hit the southern part of this state, I think Obama will do O.K.

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NW Patrick:

Is it September? That is when NH was REALLY KEY. Today? With a 6% average lead in OH, Colorado, and 8+ in VA, NH suddenly isn't as urgent. Still an Obama lead.

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Oh I agree NH is not needed. At this point I am gameing for maximum schadenfreude. If we get 400+ EVs I might actually go check out the Freepers on election night!

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IMind:

Remember NH is surrounded by very blue states. The GOTV effort in NH is going to be VERY VERY well staffed from CT, VT, ME, and MA.

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Lou-NH:

HRC will be visiting on Tuesday or Wednesday and Bill Clinton will be here on the 2nd. These two events coupled with the GOTV effort will hold NH in my opinion.

@NW Patrick
While VA seems very strong. The early vote ratio in CO is not great and Ohio is always well Ohio. Every state counts.

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mrut:

@Lou-NH

I, too, think Obama will do okay in NH. The only thing that would get traction is if McCain could convince NH that he would be easier on their taxes than Obama would. Up until now, McCain hasn't been able to do that, probably because he has been switching messages too often and exaggerating Obama's biography. Calling Obama a socialist and a terrorist's best friend has not pushed NH's buttons. They care about taxes.

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Discounting the Zogby polls, this is right in line with what Marist found in NH a month ago. No need to worry.

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newhampster:

I have lived in NH for 25 years, drive around a lot, and I think it is pretty close - judging by friends and neighbors comments, yard signs, endless phone calls (robo calls from both sides) - we get 4-5 calls a day from campaigns. A lot of people here would never pick up the phone for a poll (you get pretty tired of it after a while), but I think Obama suporters seem more likely to voice their support so it wouldn't surprise me if the final result went barely either way. We have had 4 different Obama people show up at our door so I think Obama's campaign knows this state is in play.

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jamesia:

McCain is hoping for strong Evangelical turnout in Iowa in support of Palin. It won't be enough though. The urban areas, where the majority of Iowa's population lives, is increasingly liberal. Obama will win there, no doubt.

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Dave Barnes:

@Lou-NH
"The early vote ratio in CO is not great"

Relax. The numbers are quite good here. See http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

The Republicans have a voter registration edge in Colorado. Very small edge, but one in their favor.

If you assume that the Rs and Ds balance each other out, then it all depends on the unaffiliated voters who favor Barack Hussein Obama by 58%-42% (see see http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/oct/27/independents-favor-udall-poll-shows/).

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Lou-NH:

@IMind

You've got that right. We will be housing at least 4 people from bluer states starting this coming weekend until the 4th. The GOTV plan here is very strong.

@mrut

In general, McCain has not connected with the majority of the state on any issue. Many people are directly telling me that they were for McCain but are switching. I just wish we had early voting to set those sentiments in GRANITE. Pardon the pun.

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Lou-NH:

@newhampster

This has been a long election process and most are simply getting tired of the exposure. This state of ours is never easy to predict. Thank God the 4th is coming.

@Dave Barnes

Thanks for the encouraging news out of CO. The pressure is building up here and while I believe Barack will win here, I would feel alot better knowing we had others areas solidifying. I am very optimistic about NC and the early voting splits there.

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M2:

Kerry states + IA + NM + CO = Obama victory

And I've yet to see any serious indication Obama won't get that at a minimum.

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Trosen:

Lou.. the CO ground game is kicking major ass.. It's part of the reason McCain basically pulled out of the state.

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K Johnson:

McCain is too confused and cannot convince his own family to support him

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zvelf:

@M2

At this point, Obama will likely get Virginia even before Colorado. Ohio is also looking very good. Winning any of the three and Obama locks it.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

tmtoulouse:

What is happening in NH? Too many polls are showing the gap closing to ignore it.

Posted on October 27, 2008 2:01 PM


YOU BETCHA LOL!!!!!!!!

Watch independents and Catholic voters go heavily for Mack and put the state on his column!!!

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shirefox:

McCain cooked his goose with Iowa when he flip-flopped one too many times on ethanol.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bT3q3PVZ_ck

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Lou-NH:

@Trosen

The ground game is coming to NH. We will give Mack all he can handle and if he doesn't put a GOTV effort together here he will lose.

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NHBlue:

@sotonightthatimightsee:

There are probably more lapsed Catholics (going Obama) in NH than practicing (for McCain). I grew up in a very Catholic area which was served by at least 10 priests. Today served by one. This is a state where religion doesn't play as much as it does elsewhere. As for independents: just anecdotal, but many whom I know have been tending toward voting Democratic.

But we shall see.

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Trosen:

sotonightthatimightsee:


"YOU BETCHA LOL!!!!!!!!

Watch independents and Catholic voters go heavily for Mack and put the state on his column!!!"


Uh huh..and then pulls a big upset to get a whole... 4 EVs

Then all he needs is another 124 EVs where he's either tied or losing. Keep fighting the good fight there troll..

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bclintonk:

McCain and Palin are making a last stab at Iowa by now suddenly acting as if they're ethanol's best friend. McCain has pretty consistently and very visibly opposed ethanol subsidies, a position that puts him at odds with most Iowa Republicans, corn belt farmers, and residents of the small towns and rural areas where new ethanol plants, often built with heavy local investments, are bringing newfound wealth. Until the last week or so, McCain has appeared to be clueless that his opposition to ethanol is costing him dearly in the farm belt, not only in Iowa but also in Minnesota and probably in Indiana and Ohio as well. Last week Palin went to Iowa and made a lot of noise about how the McCain-Palin ticket supported "all forms of energy" including ethanol, which she specifically mentioned---without quite saying that she supports ethanol subsidies. It apparently was well enough received that McCain came to Iowa a few days later and said essentially the same thing, adding that he would work for trade agreements that "open up foreign markets" to U.S.-produced ethanol. Never mind that free trade in ethanol would wipe out many U.S. producers because Brazil can produce sugar cane-based ethanol at a fraction of the cost.

The McCain camp seems to think Iowans are dunces. But they at least wanted to make one last run at Iowa voters by making some kind of nod to the ethanol god. It doesn't appear to be working.

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PJ_FFM:

Just for the record: Ever since Al Smith's run in 1928 a lot of Catholics, *ESPECIALLY* in the North-East, tend to vote for the Democrats.

We Catholics might be conservative on a lot of issues, especially when it comes to moral philosophy - but we're not stupid...

Fool us once, shame on you, fool us twice, shame on us - but, hey, we're not gonna let ourselves get fooled *three times in a row* by the same kind of trick by the same group...

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PJ_FFM:

@bclintonk

Oh, sure they are ethanol's best friends.

Ethanol, that's the thick, gooey, black stuff that can be drilled for offshore or in the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve, innit? ;->

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