Pollster.com

Obama up in the battlegrounds BEFORE the financial meltdown? NICE!!!

Mairst came out with there last poll in 2004 saying kerry would win the election.

I will pass on Mairst polls plus this poll is old.

Yawn,

More ludicrous outliers from left-leaning pollsters.

Next.

yea...happy as this makes me it seems a bit off. But it is good to know the voters are out there. In others words to even create a poll that it is too weighted to one side you still need voters to call to do it. So its not good news but it certainly isnt bad news.

Even the Obama-leaning FiveThirtyEight.com show Marist as one of the worst pollsters. McCain-Palin would not be spending so much time in Michigan if their own internals showed a 9-point gap.

These #'s are in line if you ask me. MCCAIN's IN TROUBLE! have you seen the Colorado #'s? If McCain can't pick off a blue state (which he cant) and loses NM IA and Colorado, then PRESIDENT OBAMA will lead this great Nation MY FRIENDS.

Mostly within the MoE and fairly old now. These don't tell us anything interesting.

Yeah, these seem to be too good numbers for Obama especially considering the dates when this poll was conducted. One thing is for sure though, Ohio will be very close.
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http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

Not sure on their track record...but they are consistent with trends. What is clear is that:

Michigan is safest for Obama and looks pretty safe overall.

Pennsylvania is close but leans Obama.

And OH is a pure toss-up.

boomshak could you provide me a list of Pollsters who AREN'T left leaning, since you say they ALL are but Rasmussen? LOL

Yep, blame the messenger when McCain is in a free fall. That will help turn thigns around. OUCH!!!!!

The guy who runs 538 is Obama leaning but the numbers do not lean Obama. The man is a strict statistician and cares deeply about the accuracy of the numbers as it reflect on his other work doing baseball stats for fantasy baseball.

I am sick and tired of every F'ing republican thinking everyone is out to get them. Quit being such ****ty people and you won't have to be so paranoid.

I am so confused this morning being an American. McCain seemed to imply yesterday Spain was in Latin America. Isn't that in Europe? ROFL

Obama is not going to lose any of the Kerry states in this economic environment, even if things get close in a few of them. He is very likely to carry IA and NM and that leaves him 6 votes short of victory, which means Palin/McCain, sorry I mean McCain/Palin, needs to hold IN, OH, FL,VA, CO, WV which are now tossups. NV gets Obama a tie. It really is a daunting challenge for the Republicans. I don't think they can pull it off.

Obama is not going to lose any of the Kerry states in this economic environment, even if things get close in a few of them. He is very likely to carry IA and NM and that leaves him 6 votes short of victory, which means Palin/McCain, sorry I mean McCain/Palin, needs to hold IN, OH, FL,VA, CO, WV which are now tossups. NV gets Obama a tie. It really is a daunting challenge for the Republicans. I don't think they can pull it off.

I hear you, boomshak. Yawn. Next.

@boomshack

Boom, I want to personally thank you for providing continual entertainment on this site for yours truly. My only concern is, with this much yawning you not oversleep the general election and neglect to cast your deciding vote.

On a more serious side, as it has been pointed out by many posters here, does anyone actually EXPECT MN, PENN, MI or WI to go red? The Big 10 poll of 600 ppl/state is making all the news now and one of the founders of this site was just on NPR making eloquent points about the polls, but I am still willing to put money on these four states to stay blue. NM is safely blue as well. For one thing, the Big 10 poll did not catch the AIG/Lehman Bros fiasco, McCain's most recent flip-flop on regulation, Sarah's Palindrome, and the general up-surge for Obama in the recent days.

In all these states the rolling average has Obama riding a consistent margin of 3-4 points, and much has been said about the rolling average and consistent lead within MOE translating to a more solid certainty of an actual lead. If Obama maintains these states, he only needs to close CO, where he has also led consistently and continues to lead. That gives him 269, enough to win.

He does not need to flip Ohio, NH, NV or Fla or any other yellowish state blue. He wins without them.

Boom, psst: remember to set your alarm clock to correct for the daylight savings time come Nov.

Hey...bmcavan...Your language is uncalled for. AND the same could be said about Obmanation when the polls favor McCain, but why say it except to be rude?

Sample size is small and MI number seem like outlier. I'd LOVE to believe they're all accurate but I just don't trust small sample sizes in larger population states.

What does seem to be clear, is that if election were held today Obama wins going away. Unfortunately, election is not held today. So we need to wait at least a week until after the first debate.

Meh. Marist has "not the best rep."

Hey...NWPatrick... It was Obamanation that FALSELY made that charge against McCain. Petty garbage. Give it up. People are focused on the economic environment.

This poll is looking great for Obama and Biden!

McCain and Palin have no economic plan, and McCain and Palin have no plan to end this war in Iraq that costs our country 10 billion dollars a month. Iraq has a huge budget surplus while our country has huge budget and trade deficits. McCain and Palin are the same as Bush and Cheney. Our country can't afford 4 more years of Bush and Cheney.

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

THE VOTER REGISTRATION DRIVE IN THESE STATES ARE UNBELIVABLE,PEOPLE ARE WAITING IN LONG LINES IN PENN,VIRGINA,OHIO,MICH,FL,MIZZ,NC,GEO,COL,NEWMEX,NEV,THESE PEOPLE ARE WAITING IN LONG LINES JUST TO REGISTER TO VOTE,I WENT TO REGISTER IN ATLANTA LASTWEEK THE LINE WAS 2 BLOCKS LONG,MCCAIN IS IN ALOT OF TROUBLE,THIS LOOKS LIKE A BLOWOUT READY TO HAPPEN

@KipTin:

There you are. You and boomshak always jump to another board after I prove you wrong. Here's the link to the Herbert Hoover Institution at Stanford.

http://www.hoover.org/about/mission

I don't expect it BUT I wouldn't be surprised if PA or WI flipped--both were very close in '04 and now you add in the race factor this time around and it will be extremely tight. Will that be offset by the increased Dem registrations? Who knows...but Mccain's camp has PA as their #1 state for ad spending so they def see something there.

I don't get what makes these polls outliers. Michigan is definitely Obama's, so no surprise there. The other two show a tie, with maybe a slight Obama advantage. That's pretty much where OH and PA have been lately.

Marist never released ANY polls for these three states in 2004, so it's unfair to question their accuracy. There are no points to compare against.

i'm an independent but it's laughable how some of the repubs here are questioning the credibility of every poll showing significant obama gains...i have every reason to believe the data in this poll are legit...the mccain camp fumbled away a chance to maintain momentum after a successful convention....we are seeing it right now in the polls.

These appear to me to be as good quality as the big 10 polls in fact they look slightly better!

In reality, with McCain numbers as high as they are in the solid red states (better than against Kerry), and solid numbers even in the solid blue states (better than against Kerry). looking at the National Poll and Obama's better than tie position its statisically not possible that Obama is going to be behind in a Kerry State, is it?

Michigan - "Democrat Barack Obama Leads Republican John McCain by 9 Percentage Points in the Wake of Nation’s Economic Crisis: In a survey conducted entirely after this week’s economic crisis hit," please use the link POLL CONDUCTED THIS WEEK!!!

Why is the Marist poll considered biased and the Strategic Vision not?!?!?

Marist released details (but not party affiliation), S-Vision released nothing. I think their findings are more suspect.

I like the fact the BO is doing great, but I am not going to bash the pollster that is more open about methodology.

KipTin you are right! This IS about the economy. The economy the Rethuglicans have DESTROYED over the past 8 years. Does ANYTHING your party touches NOT turn to crap? And where the hell are the weapans of mass destruction. Looks like the WMD's were your lies and distortions. Looks like the polls will put you away, and for good.

This might push MI back to light blue, probably not PA though.

Almost all of the polls are in step when one looks at the sampling errors, even though each varies on methodology which may or may not interject a bias for political ID.

There is therefore NO need to bash pollsters. There is not one definitive poll, and there are so many now that it is better to take a cumulative overview. And it is surely okay to get a little thrill of optimism when your candidate appears to be ahead on an individual poll.

Bottom line is that this is a tight race and these three states are among the toss-ups.
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Having said that--
1. Michigan is interesting because they have Democratic leadership in the state government and their economy continues to tank. Governor Granholm's approval rating is in the mid-30s.

2. Ohio needs watching because of accusations of potential voting irregularities... AGAIN.
-- GOP filed lawsuit against Ohio Secretary of State for her interpretation of a new early voting law that in her view allows same day registration/voting. Additionally, she was only going to implement such in urban areas.
-- Secretary of State also used a "technicality" to void requests for absentee ballots from voters who were more likely to vote for McCain. Her so-called "fix" was pretty lame.

3. Pennsylvania has many of the same issues as appeared in the Democratic primary. Obama still will not pay legal "walking around" money in Philadelphia to help get out the vote. Guns and conservative values are again at the forefront in the rest of the state. Do VP candidates play here? Will PA's very large Catholic population trend toward Catholic pro-choice Biden or to born-Catholic pro-life Palin?

KipTin:

What? KipTin, are you telling us that Palin abandoned being a Catholic to turn Fundamentalist Protestant? She turned her back on her Catholic heritage, to join a side that demonizes Catholics as a cult? Frankly, it will then sound to Catholics that Palin has done a Darth Vader and switched to the Dark Side.

Actually, the Michigan poll was conducted this week - Sept 16-17. OH and PA were polled Sept 11-15.
Without demographic cross-tabs, though, it is hard to evaluate the validity of these polls, much as I might like them. All Marist says is:
"Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter registration in each county in Michigan and adjusted for turnout in statewide elections."

Bah.

Just more Obamanation garbage lies...Inkan1969

Apparently, Sarah Palin left the Catholic church because of its male dominance and lack of women in leadership roles.

Palin is NOT extreme fundamentalist Protestant as you depicted and does NOT belong to a church that attacks Catholicism.

Bottom line... Sarah Palin will attract others who have share her values.

"Mairst came out with there last poll in 2004 saying kerry would win the election."

Lol!! I completely agree. Yesterday we had a truckload of polls indicating McCain is tied with Obambi in PA (trust me, I think McCain may actually be ahead here..I see lots of McCain yard signs everywhere) and other major states, now we have this "no name" pollster saying Obambi is up in PA and OH..yeah, ok! Please!!

On the night of Nov. 4th the country will be in for the shock of a lifetime when they call PA, OH, WI, MN and MI for McCain!!

It may be difficult for the staunch Republicans to admit this but Mrs. Palin's credibility has tumbled lately...Her refusal in cooperating with the investigation into Troopergate along with her many other questionable personnel decisions has cast a dark cloud over the Rep. ticket...All you have to do is look at the current polls....McCain once had a significant edge among indies and white women...That advantage has completely evaporated.

@ Kip Tin
your line
"Bottom line... Sarah Palin will attract others who have share her values."

should read

Bottom line... Sarah Palin will ATTACK others who have share her values.

See the recent demonstration of 1400 Alaska women against Palin. The LARGEST EVER in Alaska history. See a similar demonstration in support of the city librarian she fired while mayor of the crack capital of Alaska. See also the cronyism of this "maverick" as she surrounded herself with the like-minded snake-handlers and speakers-in-tongue and FIRED anyone and everyone who simply disagreed with her.

As these stories slowly (oh, ever so slowly) trickle into the national spotlight, you see good ole Sarah slide in the polls. You see the same old Bush '00 "uniter/mainstream" rhetoric bounce off the cynical electorate that has seen this scenario once too many times. The bubble has burst. Maybe McCain should think about naming a VVP? Someone black, perhaps? Mr Keys, anyone. Allan? Where art thou?

MI is good news and so is PA, but we will have to wait for some polls!