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Marist: OH, PA (10/24-26)

Topics: PHome

Marist Poll
10/24-26/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Ohio 661 LV, 4%
Obama 48, McCain 45

Pennsylvania 713 LV, 4%
Obama 55, McCain 41

 

Comments
C.S.Strowbridge:

Ohio is closer than I would like, but hopefully that will get Obama's team fired up. Remember...

A Always
B Be
C Closing.

Always be closing.

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Trosen:

bang..

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Dave:

steady as she goes...

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BarackO'Clinton:

Love the Glengarry reference!

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Billie Bravo:

looking good in PA John McShame!

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

Sydney closing in on PA. He needs to spend more time and money there. Remember the internal Obama memo that somehow got leaked about PA being really close.

Let's all call Sydney's campaign HQ and tell them they are making headway and need to advertise and spend more money there.

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Guailo:

As nice as Ohio would be...with PA still showing that kind of a margin, all I care about is CO or VA. Because those bring us over 270. Who cares if we get any more. I just want the W.

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pbcrunch:

OH barely changed from Marist's last poll in early October (O+4). No big deal. Average lead there for Obama is around 6% still...

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hirshnoc:

America loves Pennsylvania. Case closed.

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sunnymi:

An AFL-CIO official sends along the following data from Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania:

Among veterans, retirees and gun owners -- the three groups we microtargeted communication to in the final weeks of persuasion -- we've seen the numbers improve dramatically.

Among union gun owners, it's now 58-30 Obama, up from 48-41 in early September, a 21 point jump.

Among veterans we're at 58-32, up from 49-41 in early September. (+18)

And among retirees, we're now at 59-31, up from 52-37, a 14 point improvement, nearly double the margi

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BOOMFAIL:

Obama WIDENS on Gallup!!!!

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ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

Obama went up (slightly) in Gallup. I will take it.

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ricbrig:

Very little change from Gallup, McCain Surge(ry)!

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AlanSnipes:

Gallup just out. Obama gains 2 points. 51-42.

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sunnymi:

A brand-new NBC/WSJ/MySpace poll illustrates not only McCain’s challenge come Election Day, but also the challenge the Republican Party could face in future elections. In the poll, Obama enjoys a more than 2-to-1 advantage over McCain among first-time (read: 18-21 year olds) and lapsed voters, 69%-27%. These voters have a much more positive view of Obama (64%-27% fav/unfav rating) than average voters do (56%-33% fav/unfav in last week’s NBC/WSJ survey). What’s more, they have a much more negative view of McCain (29%-59%) and Palin (23%-54%) than average voters do.

A very ominous sign for the Republican Party is how Democratic-leaning these new and lapsed voters are. Not only do they back Obama by a 69%-27 margin, they also prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress by a 2-to-1 margin, 66%-31%. And their views of President Bush? His fav/unfav among these voters is 14%-73%. Ouch. While Karl Rove had ambitious hopes of turning Bush's presidency into a permanent majority for the GOP, this poll suggests that Bush's lasting legacy could actually be turning off a new generation of voters. After all, consider what young voters who came of voting age during the past seven years might associate the GOP with -- the Iraq war, Hurricane Katrina, the current economy, various political scandals (Jack Abramoff, Ted Stevens, etc.), and Bush.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/29/1604965.aspx

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OGLiberal:

Gallup

RV:

O - 51(+1)
M - 42(-1)

LVI

O - 49(nc)
M - 46(-1)

LVII

O - 51(nc)
M - 44(nc)

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sotonightthatimightsee:

Open memo to all kool aid drinkers:

IF YOUR PRINCE IS UP ANYTHING LESS THAN 5 POINTS ON ANY GIVEN STATE- HE'S TOAST!

Why you ask?

1- Undecideds and Independents will break for McCain.

2- "Bittergate" still resonates loudly in PA, OH and WV!

3- Yep, that "Bradley effect" thing. Sorry- not my doing!

There you have it kids!

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JCK:

Gallup released

RV 51-42
LV(T) 49-46
LV(E) 51-44

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Mike A.:

Thank god for gallup ;) ha

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sherman:

Game over. Gallup tracker shows no change or slight improvement for Obama( RV). So much for the McCain surge!

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platanoman:

Mccain surge! hahaha Boomshak is an epic fail

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Obama_is_tight:

Although, I do not care much about the National polls. I will like to see what Boom says about gallup

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Trosen:

So Gallup +1 for Obama in the trolls' precious 2004 voter model. too bad.. so sad.

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BUS:

Taken all in all, apart from the two point dip in Ras, there's been only a very slight movement for McCain today in the national numbers, and strong consolidation for Obama in the states. Some surge.

Tick tock.

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ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

51-42 RV (O+1, M-1)
51-44 LVE (no change)
49-46 LVT (M-1)

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maddiekat:

Do the math Ras cooked the books last night. It should have read 51-46

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sunnymi:


Gallup Daily: Obama Maintains Edge Over McCain

Traditional LVs:
Obama - 49
McCain - 46

Expanded LVs:
Obama - 51
McCain - 44

Registered Voters
Obama - 51
McCain - 42

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111619/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-Edge-Over-McCain.aspx

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carl29:

I don't know how can McCain win PA if Obama gets 55% of the vote. Math, math, math, oh boy :-)

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change:

i use to respect senator mcstain, but unfortunately he sunk so low, i mean so low!

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OGLiberal:

@sotonightthatimightsee

*Bradley Effect overrated.

*If Obama is at 50 or above in these states, it doesn't matter which way the undecideds break.

The kool-aid drinkers are the folks who think McCain still has a chance and those who worship at the cult of Sarah.

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bmrKY:

Democrats have a 1.2 million voter registration advantage over the republicans in Pennsylvania. These polls just continue to back that up.

So again, how does McCain win Pennsylvania?

But John, if you want to continue to spend all of your time there wishing for the unproven "Bradley Effect," then go right ahead.

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Trosen:

maddie.. I'm interested to see more of how Ras came up with those #s. But in the interest of Science.. anyone want to take a couple of random Ras polls from the past 2 weeks and see if the internals match up on those as well? (not me of course.. too lazy)=p

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Unbiased08:

McCain has a very weird kind of momentum that only manifests itself in some polls, but not in others. In fact, this unique kind of momentum actually manifests itself in the form of McCain LOSING ground in some polls, such as gallup and zogby, or as no change in other polls such as battleground. It also has an extaordinary feature that makes his momentum not show up at all in key state polling, such as (insert any one of dozens of state polls out this week showing Obama holding steady or improving).

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@sotonightthatimightsee

He is up 14 in PA and that is where McCain is betting all his chips so you are making him look bad with the 5 point theory.

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NW Patrick:

sotonightthatimightsee Intelligent post. Could you give me a state poll to show your theory?:) WAITING. Electoral college baby!

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mysticlaker:

I emailed Nate at 538 to see if he would be so kind to check on Rasmussen.

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SuffolkVA:

Keep on going PA and OH!
We're working hard in VA to lead the way to landslide!!!

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sherman:

I think Mark Blumenthal said it best when he called it "random noise"

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ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

Hahaha. Drudge changed his headline to read TRICK OR TREAT:GALLUP SAYS OBAMA +3. Nice.

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jamesia:

I had no idea how un-American Pennsylvania is...

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ericsp28:

All movement in the Gallup Daily tracker today was to Obama.

LV1 O +3 (M -1 from yesterday)
LV2 0 +7 (no change from yesterday)
RV o +9 (M -1, 0 +1 from yesterday)

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Trosen:

Ok sotonight.. I'll play along and say Obama actually only wins by 5 points in PA.

And that helps McCain.... how?

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carl29:

Trosen,

How did Rasmussen come up with his numbers?

Rasmussen, Obama 53 McCain 46
Marist, Obama 55 McCain 41
Associated Press/GfK, Obama 52 McCain 40
Quinnipiac, Obama 53 McCain 41

What does Rasmussen have in common with the other pollsters?

yeah...Obama's level of support :-)

Regardless of the pollster, Obama support is above 50%; however, McCain extra-support comes from leaners who are just thinking about supporting him, but haven't decided whether they will bother voting.

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ricbrig:

Obama: "By the end of the week, he’ll be accusing me of being a secret communist because I shared my toys in Kindergarten."

LOL

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ctj:

WATCH OUT MCCAIN IS SURGING IN PA THE STRATGERY IS WORKING!!! This is made abundantly clear by four new polls released today-

FM- 53-40 Obama
Marist- 55-41 Obama
AP- 52-40 Obama
Quinn- 53-41

As I stated earlier I know what the strategy is- Rick Davis and Steve Schmidt are going to make Philadelphia secede to NJ before election day.

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ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

McCain has a very weird kind of momentum that only manifests itself in some polls, but not in others. In fact, this unique kind of momentum actually manifests itself in the form of McCain LOSING ground in some polls, such as gallup and zogby, or as no change in other polls such as battleground. It also has an extaordinary feature that makes his momentum not show up at all in key state polling, such as (insert any one of dozens of state polls out this week showing Obama holding steady or improving).

And the polls he gains/declines in today are never the polls he gains/declines in tomorrow, just as Gallup looked promising for him yesterday, but today it's Ras. There is certainly some noise going on, although I don't think there is much doubt that some tightening is going on, a development predicted by Nate Silver for weeks. Just not nearly enough to change the outcome.

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Inkan1969:

BTW: Over at gallup, Obama expanded his registered vote lead to 51-42, while McCain lost some ground in the "traditional" LV poll, making that 49-46. Or do 1 point drops now not count?

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CTPonix4BHObama:

@sotonight

Well according to this Marist PA poll there's only 4% undecided left so even if they all break for McCain thats a 10 point margin. Lets be generous and subtract the 4% MOE and thats a 6 point margin. Subtract maybe 3 for any Bradley-Wilder effect, which has been widely debunked, and not figure in any possible young voters, new voters, or cell phone only voters, and we're left with a +3 for Obama. And thats being pretty generous.

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drdr:

Largest gain in last week of a competitive presidential election in Gallup poll is 7 points among RV:

1968 Humphrey -8 to -1.

Obama currently leads McCain by 9 among RV in Gallup poll.

(I exlude 1980 because the only Reagan-Carter debate was held 1 week prior to election. In 2008 all debates are finished, and McCain is not Reagan.)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111451/Late-Upsets-Rare-Happened.aspx

Also note that even if Gallup trad LV model is correct and Obama wins national by 3 points, he would still win election with 280+ EV. There is approximately zero chance of losing electoral college while winning popular vote by 3%.

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OGLiberal:

I don't really doubt Rasmussen's numbers. It was going to tighten and his tracker has been the least likely to show significant shifts in either directions. As a result, he never had either candidate with a huge lead.

His party ID weightings seem pretty spot-on. And he adjusts them weekly. But while he's consistently shown Obama in the lead for over a month, his gap has often been smaller than other national polls and trackers. Ditto his results in some of the key swing states - they show Obama in the lead and at or over 50 but with a tighter gap between him and McCain.

Why is this? I think Rasmussen really pushes leaners. How you do this on an IVR, I don't know...but he always includes leaners in his numbers and always has a pretty small number of undecideds.

Second, while his party weightings may be pretty accurate, his turnout expectation may look more like 2004 than what we're probably going to see in 2008. That could be why you see Obama at 50 today in his tracker instead of at 51 or 52, which is where he'll likely end up on election.

Whatever...if Obama is at 50% in the popular after all of the votes are counted, I'll be happy...because that almost certainly means he will have won the election.

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Washingtonian1:

Why does Gallup even publish the traditional model? The dynamics this year render it obsolete.

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

**************************************************
GALLUP #'S UP
**************************************************
51(O) 42(M) REG
51(O) 44(M) EXPANDED LIKLY
49(O) 46(M) 2004 LIKELY VOTER MODEL


The voter preferences of the group of 1,430 individuals who have already voted and who were interviewed by Gallup between Oct. 17 and Oct. 27 show a 53% to 43% Obama over McCain tilt.

Among the group of those who say they have not yet voted, but will before Election Day, the skew towards Obama is more pronounced, at 54% to 40%. By comparison, those who are going to wait to vote on Nov. 4 manifest a narrower 50% to 44% Obama over McCain candidate preference. (Across all registered voters over this time period, Obama leads McCain by a 51% to 43% margin).
- - - ---------------------------------------
IS IT +9, +7 OR +3?

WELL BASED ON THE ACCOMPANYING PARAGRAPH I WOULD GO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN +7 AND +9

THOUGH QUITE FRANKLY NATIONAL NUMBERS MEAN DIDDLY POOP AT THIS POINT AND SHOULD PROBABLY BE IGNORED, GIVEN THE IMMENSE STATE POLLING IN THE BATTLEGROUNDS.

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straight talk:

The McCain Campain will be in Pennsylvania on Sat. and Sunday! If he loses Virginia it is over. RCp avg. for OBama in Virginia is at 7.5%! Why did they give up on Va for Pa! That is bad strategy!

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pbcrunch:

@Inkan1969:

No, one point drops clearly do not count as they are within the MOE... one point gains (only for McCain, though) count because they are clearly evidence of his surge and people reacting to the fact that Obama is a terrorist-loving-Israel-hating-socialist.

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AdamSC:

Boomshak is on MSNBC right now explaining to Andrea Mitchel why everyone should only pay attention to McCain's internal polling and the Rasmussen daily tracker.

Lol.

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zotz:

sotonightthatimightsee-
Please come back the night of Nov.4 and share with us how it felt to see your racist dream DIE.

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NW Patrick:

Gallop's traditional modem means African Americans included will vote in the same levels as '04. Yah ok:)

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Halidai:

Just talked to my mom last night. She lives in rural Ohio and voted for Bush in the last two elections (reluctantly in 2004). I don't think she's ever voted Democratic. She said she's lost all respect for McCain - primarily because of his selection of Palin for running mate.

That's one more Republican voting for Obama.

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BigTex:

Crimany! McCain people wake up! He needs to get every toss up AND pick off a VA or CO or PA or NH. All the while AZ is getting close. And don't forget his campaign already blaming the Whack Job.

Yet there is this hidden pro-McCain surge? Get real!

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BOOMFAIL:

Final Poll averages at this point in 2004 for Ohio: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html

Actual election results were the same:
George W. Bush of Texas Richard Cheney of Wyoming Republican 20 2,858,727 50.82%
John Kerry of Massachusetts John Edwards of North Carolina Democrat 0 2,739,952 48.70%

Today's RCP Ohio average:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html

Obama has a 5.8 point lead, which is a 3.7 points larger lead than Bush did in 2004 in Ohio.

Ohio is just icing on the cake, as VA and CO are even stronger for Obama!

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NW Patrick:

After today, 3 business days to go!:)

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

I might be wrong on this one but I feel that by the weekend we will see a majority of people make up their mind. I don't think there will be much chance to change minds on Monday.

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NW Patrick:

I know this supposed National tightening is scary to some folks. I am relaxed because you have to look at polling AVERAGES. No ONE poll is KING. In '04 as I've said a MILLION times 15 or so polls showed a clear Bush lead while just a few showed a tiny Kerry lead. What was the average per RCP? 1.5%. Who won? Bush by 1.5%. Unless McCain is within a 3% RCP Obama lead by election day it's over, especially with the incredible state polling taking place in the BG's. Relax:)

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pbcrunch:

There will be additional tightening over the weekend. But it will be mostly undecideds becoming weak McCain supporters with Obama keeping steady between 49-52% in the trackers. Whether those weak McCain supporters actually come out to vote will determine the margin on Election Day.

This assumes that the CW of the undecideds breaking for McCain holds true. Nobody has provided a firm reason as to why that would be but I'm purposely being pessimistic for Obama.

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mrzookie:

Say bye bye Ted. WooHoo!

Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Republican Senator Ted Stevens has fallen eight points behind Democrat Mark Begich in his bid for re-election, and most Alaska voters now believe Stevens should resign from office.

The latest Rasmussen Reports survey of Alaska voters, conducted a day after Stevens was found guilty of filing false financial disclosure forms, finds that 52% plan to vote for Begich while 44% support Stevens. Alaskan Independence Party candidate Bob Bird picks up three percent (3%) of the vote while two percent (2%) remain undecided.

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angrytoxicologist:

To be frank, we really don't know what is going on with the states compared to the trackers. Outside of Morning Call (PA), no states with polling past the 26th are in.

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Hoosier:

Yep, looks like McSlime is SURGING in PA. At this rate, he should catch up to Obama by December 18th or so.

I love the fact that McSlime/ Barbie are spending so much time in PA. Gee, it's working SO WELL!! Keep up the good work while we pick off VA, NV, MO, and (dare I say it??) IN.

I bet the stores run out of red Kool-Aid by 8pm on the 4th!

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straight talk:

Do not forget nevada has him up per Rcp Avg. 7+! How Can McCain come back! Everyone knows that Obama is taking over all airwaves for at least the next 48 hours with the ad and the appearance with BILL "BUBBA" Clinton! Who is an economic MACHINE!

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sunnymi:


Five Numbers showing why Obama can win North Carolina

-41. That's his lead among people who didn't vote in 2004 (65-24) They're providing his current small lead in the state, as McCain is up 49-48 with those who did vote in the last election.

-17. That's the numbers of points independents have shifted from 2004. Obama leads 51-39 with them after Bush won them by a modest amount last time.

-13. That's the difference PPP found in an August report between how natives and non-natives of North Carolina are planning to vote for President. The newbies are for Obama, and they're comprising a larger and larger portion of the electorate.

-59. That's the percentage of North Carolinians naming the economy as their top issue. The higher that number's gotten, the better Obama has matched up with McCain as fewer voters are making their choices on things like values issues and immigration that tend to benefit Republicans.

-10. That's the percentage of people who voted for George W. Bush in 2004 now supporting Obama. It may not sound like a lot, but if not for those folks the new voters Obama's bringing out wouldn't be nearly enough. Not surprisingly 79% of these voters cite the economy as their top issue.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/10/five-numbers-showing-why-obama-can-win.html

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kerrchdavis:

Question.

Does anyone know if this so-called "tightening" in polls such as Rasmussen could simply be because an overwhelming number of Obama supporters have voted early?

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carl29:

In the West the hispanic vote will deliver big for Obama. He has being smart enough to invest in the Hispanic community like any other politician in US history. Today's infomertial will be aired in Spanish in Univision, the most-watch Hispanic TV network in the US. Just imagine all the latinos that will be watching him :-)

*In addition with the beautiful Obama ad in which he speaks spanish, yes Obama himself :-)

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straight talk:

PA is not in play! YOu can spin it all you want, but Pa has never been into play! The closest McCain ever got was 5% down! Everyone is eating up everthing that THe McCain Camp throws out! HE better find another state! And pray that his numbers in GEORGIA hold! Which i think will not!

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Thatcher:

Go look at RCP's general election graph - you will notice that 2 other times in this October - the polls did this exact same thing on the national level ... October 8 and October 19 (11 days apart) - the lowest we'll see Obama is today, Thursday or Friday and then he'll bump up again for the final 4 days.

This is nothing more than cyclical situation - in the national polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Meanwhile during all that time (including the 2 dips on October 8 and October 19) - statewide polls have continued to trend in Obama's favor.

In the entire month of October - Obama's national RCP average has never dropped below 48.1 and McCain's has never been above 44.5.

The states are what matter and they continue to show improvement for Obama. On RCP - Obama has 259 EV in his strong column and 52 in the leaning. Here on Pollster - Obama has 272 in his strong column and 39 in the leaning. Those are the #'s that matter.

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sunnymi:

@straight talk, you said "Do not forget nevada has him up per Rcp Avg. 7+! "

If the current early voting trends (Clark and Washoe counties make up 86% of the state's population and Dem advantage in those counties has been overwhelming in early voting) continue there for another 3 days it might be the first state among ones being contested where the result will be obvious even before the election day..

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boskop:

as we close out the election and i move on as all of you will too, i have some closing remarks as well. in fact, i am quite certain that carl will copy this in his file for boskop:

it has never been my interest to work the world over on a daily basis but rather with a long term view. so many of you who come to play here have a 24 hour purview.

my concern with obama since i turned away from him as an early supporter has been and remains as follows:obama is a bully. if you could read his comments in hindsight you would understand to what extent he has played this card and is fully indoctrinated in this method.

when you have a habit so deeply ingrained and so practiced over your entire political life, then it is virtually impossible to cut this reflex loose.

the problem is you cannot play this way on the world stage. mccain will not be his sole opponent anymore. world leaders are not wary of watching their temper and slurs about 'erratic' age related slurs with the media as your personal handmaiden.

sarkozy, khameini, putin will not take too well to this Alinsky methodology.

once before we had a president who thought he was a citizen above restraints and checks and balances. he over played his hand on the world stage and was taken down in dallas. he deserved it.

i also know, notice i didnt use BELIEVE, that obama will immediately mount two full new wars while maintaining status quo in iraq. he will do this for character flaw reasons his character flaws; sheer arrogance and harping without cessation on bush's misguided reasons for the first war. he is obsessed with thumbing his nose at this man despite the obvious fact that we dont want war, period.

obama will also do it because he needs the money. there is virtually no other way for him to stimulate the economy. he needs to get the steel mills working again or he reneges on every single campaign promise.

finally: and i speak from my own experience... the yuppie rush to his support is not baffling but rather deeply insulting. it is insulting that so many whites really still do believe that we are bestial and dumb. that is why they are so enthusiastic over this man and willing to cast a ballot without shining a bright light of scrutiny over him.

are they that shocked we can read? are they that shocked most of us work hard and have held our heads high in the face of endless put downs and lousy breaks?

but most of us have played it fair and honestly. you on the other hand are so incredulous that we have brains that you will run like lemmings and jump cliffs because one man who has not suffered like the rest of us, has cheated in every conceivable way, has bullied, and had his hand out all his life has a degree from two ivy's, so you run to him, you cut him slack you wouldn't cut a non - black. disgusting to put it nicely. revolting to be more honest. you are taking a risky chance on our lives.

why? why cut him slack? because he is a black man with a big vocabulary when you thought we didnt have one? this is insulting and goes beyond the pale.

it assuages your guilt with an antiseptic vote. but what you have done is made him the affirmative action president. no, make that the OJ Simpson president. you turn your head away from him and give him a pass despite glaring character faults and rotten affiliations and completely sleazy behavior for all the mis-deeds perpetrated on us before. you acquit him too.

but that is not a reason to vote for a president. he has shifted his policy to wriggle into every vote he can suck up. he mocks, he cackles, he plays dirty on one hand and then comes swooping down like a white knight to say what his troops did was wrong. but remember, he is the great executive running a tight effective campaign. every nasty order came from him. he is duplicitous.

duplicity that runs deep sinks your ability to operate effectively on the world stage. it will take one month for the UK and France and Germany and Pakistan to figure this out.

Yes, it is time for a black president. Long over due god knows. but this man is not the deserving recipient of your faith. there are others. there will be others. we are a very talented brilliant capable and dignified people.

and now you know, though i expect you will go ballistic. people who dont think usually do. you are responsible in your vote for the safety andhealth of our country. the handwriting was onthe wall with obama but you let the media muzzle the normal vetting process because you didnt want to hear. you just wanted a black man who looked the most and talked the most like you.

i hope he loses but it doesnt look that way. this man cannot deliver his promises. he is a powder keg of emotional confusion and a history of so much muscling down people and word games that he will not do well on the world stage.

he is obsessed with is father. he took time off to write two books. he searches he aches he craves validation from older men. this is not something that disappears. it gnaws and enters into every move you make when it is this driving a need.

finally, good luck.

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Thatcher:

kerrchdavis:

not necessarily ... because Ras would track already voted in their internals.

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jamesugw:

boksop -
you didn't have a very happy childhood, did you?

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mysticlaker:

HAHA Bosktop!!!! Good one. I had to forward that to some friends...Good luck as well!

For others: enjoy...

http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news/stories/local/10/27/1027jones.html

Daughter of slave votes for Obama.

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hou04:

@ straight talk

I agree about Georgia! And he should also pray that his numbers in ARIZONA hold!

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kerrchdavis:

@boskop

it is because I disagree with every single thing you just wrote that I will be enthusiastically voting for Barack Obama.

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Trosen:

kerrchdavis:
"Question.

Does anyone know if this so-called "tightening" in polls such as Rasmussen could simply be because an overwhelming number of Obama supporters have voted early?"

you know, I was pondering this myself. I would guess that people who have already voted would not be very interested in taking an automated polling survey. So this might account for a little of it, but not much.

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NW Patrick:

FACT - Gallop has predicted the winner of the presidential election over history all but ONCE. Pollsters this time around will not make the mistake that the Gallup organization made 60 years ago -- ending their polling more than a week before the election and missing a last-minute surge in support for Truman. Every day brings dozens of new state and national presidential polls, a trend that is expected to continue up to Election Day.

If Obama is up on election day in Gallop, he will win.

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kerrchdavis:

@Thatcher

Right, but might it have an effect on polling now that there is a smaller pool of enthusiastic Obama supporters to poll from?

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hou04:

@ Trosen

Maybe you should ask Nate Silver?

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NW Patrick:

TOO FUNNY! I just went to the drudgereport website and Obama's tax calculator advertisement was at the top! HA! Hit refresh a bunch of times if it doesn't come up the 1st time when u go there. Just found it funny. Even drudge can't turn down the money.

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Dan:

I don't think the early voters are affected the polls any unless the pollsters are asking misleading questions like, "Are you planning to vote on Tuesday, Nov. 4?", and the answer is "No" because I already voted. I agree with OG that Ras has a good grasp on the responses, especially in pushing undecideds. Undecideds at this point are like deer in the middle of the road: when challenged, they will return to the side they came from, inside of the unknown across the way. Obama is more of the unknown in their minds. Hence, the unds. will trickle towards McCain, but not in droves enough to make a difference. IMO polls of RVs are worthless, because they always favors dems, because as pointed out, more people register as dems. However, the reps always get a higher turnout. Therefore, we such only look at those polls which post LVs, and get out and vote!

____________________

Get out and vote and lets defeat these trash talking Republicans on election day. Gather up all of your friends and family on your block and have a car pool to the voting booth. I want every block in the United States of America to get together and to vote for Barack Obama!

McCain and Palin have NO plan for the economy and NO plan to end this war in Iraq.

Let us not forget the stolen election in 2000 when Daddy Bush's Supreme Court elected Bush our President by a 5 to 4 vote. I am getting fired up now!

Every vote counts. Tell your friends to vote, tell your family to vote, tell everyone to vote. Spread the word, VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND JOE BIDEN!

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

____________________

mysticlaker:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/

Not a blip of red yet...Not a blip.

____________________

lhtk:

It definitely seems like these Marist polls have had a definite Republican lean as compared with other polls released at about the same time. So the OH numbers look fine to me.

For any who, like myself, wondered whether all the early voting might skew the exit polling on election night, I was reasonably reassured by reading the following from Slate: http://www.slate.com/id/2203246/?wpisrc=newsletter

____________________

Incumbent:

@boskop
"once before we had a president who thought he was a citizen above restraints and checks and balances. he over played his hand on the world stage and was taken down in dallas. he deserved it."

And with that outrageous and indefensible remark, I have officially heard enough from this poster. Have a nice life under President Obama. We all will.

____________________

laguna_b:

@boskop

I too disagree with your dark forboding characterization of Obama which flies in the face of ALL we have seen.

How you could opt for the tragedy that is McCain and his horrifically stupid Palin (who would not even understand what you wrote) is beyond comprehension.

____________________

CTPonix4BHObama:

@Thatcher

I was saying that the other day. At the beginning of every weekly news cycle you get the gop echo chamber building up over the weekend about how the race is closing because one poll says so, and its always a different poll. Then by the middle of the week ,when the avalanche of state polls come out, this "closing of poll numbers" theory gets blown away. This usually has ended up giving Obama a larger lead. Kinda like a yo yo dieter.

Polls almost always close towards the end of modern presidential elections and I would be amazed if they don't this year, but so far it appears to not be happening.

____________________

Stonecreek:

McCain is beginning to show the "Gramm Effect" in Pennsylvania. Don't know what that is? In 1996, Phil Gramm (remember him, McCain's erstwhile economics advisor and legislative author of the current meltdown), decided he would deign to be President and ran in a number of primaries. He started out with respectable numbers, but in states where his campaign went all-out in spending and personal appearances his negatives went through the roof. In other words, the more people saw of him, the less they liked him (imagine that!)

McCain has poured a disproportionate amount of time, advertising, and personal appearances into PA. However, while he may arguably be gaining a tiny percentage on Obama in some other selected states, the numbers show him falling further and further behind in PA.

The more people see him, the less they like him? I know that's true with me, but then I never liked him to begin with, so I am a poor one on which to test the theory. But perhaps this is his Achilles heel with independents, nominal Republicans, and "Reagan Democrats" -- people who might otherwise be persuadable -- but who find his policies, his personality, and his potential for leadership to be less and less appealing the more they know about him.

On the other hand, Obama has proven to benefit from exposure. The "persuadable" population becomes increasingly positive toward him the more they see him. That is, I believe, why the half-hour blanketing of the airwaves tonight will push his numbers up; and also why there is nothing that McCain can do to counteract it.

____________________

My feeling on the ground here is that Nevada is a done deal. It's Obama, Obama, Obama. Bout the only place around here I have seen any significant McCain push is in Henderson and Boulder City. Not enough to sway the whole of Clark. Up Washoe it sounds like they'll split 50/50, which means, with Clark, the rural areas won't make a different.

Obama wins Nevada is my prediction.

____________________

syrac818:

Hi Everyone,

I'm obsessed about this election, and it's gotten to be a problem. With that said, I just want to mention something about this AM's Rasmussen numbers.

I went did a number of permutations of the 3 day average. Something pretty dramatic happened on 10/26 polling, as Obama's next day numbers went from +8 to +5. The 10/26 polling showed something around Obama -1, +1, +0. Then, the following day it got back to "normal" (maybe +6). Anyway, tomorrow that one very bad day rolls off, and I think we should see Obama +4 or possibly +5. However, the 10/31 numbers should be very telling.

____________________

hou04:

GUYS, TAKE A LOOK AT THIS... TODAY AT THE MCCAIN RALLY IN MIAMI... MCCAIN MOB AT THEIR VERY BEST AGAIN:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/mccain-miami-rally-getting-ugly-down.html

____________________

mac_1103:

To be frank, we really don't know what is going on with the states compared to the trackers. Outside of Morning Call (PA), no states with polling past the 26th are in.

Actually, a whole bunch of state polls came in yesterday that were in the field on the 27th.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Breaking!!!!!! Youtube leak of Obama special tonight.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERlGndQ_xtM

____________________

Anandakos:

Straight Talk,

Since I'm not a McCain campaign insider, the following is purely speculation. Informed speculation I hope, but speculation.

I expect the reason McCain is concentrating on Pennsylvania is twofold: first, if he doesn't win at least one Kerry state, his chances are slim. He's defending seven Bush states (lean Obama or tossup) of which one, Ohio, by itself would be enough added to the Kerry states to give Obama victory.

New Hampshire has recently turned dark blue and Obama's trend percentage is upwards of 52%, and three of the last six polls have shown him at or above 54%. I doubt there's much of Bradley effect among New Hampshire voters so it's probably in the bank for Obama. So this analysis is assuming NH goes Obama, Straight Talk or no.

Virginia plus any of the remaining "leans Obama" states would also give Obama victory. Or even Colorado and either New Mexico or Nevada together would do it, barely (270-268; whew!).

For McCain to avoid all of the these possible paths to 270 for Obama seems difficult to say the least without Pennsylvania. UNLESS he gets a late evening rush to the polls. Winning Pennsylvania which closes its polls at 7 ET MIGHT be the catalyst needed to get the necessary few thousand voters extra to the polls in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada needed to swing them his way. Even if he loses Virginia but grabs Pennsylvania and Ohio, denying Obama the leaners in the Mountain west would give him a narrow victory.

____________________

hou04,

Just read your link... It's so sad how hateful McCain supporters are. Just sad.

____________________

laguna_b:

@hou04
Great post: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/mccain-miami-rally-getting-ugly-down.html
Any of you trolls who STILL like McCain should question why when he has done all he could to divide this country to try to gain power....the guy who would rather lose an election than a war would rather destroy OUR nation than lose an election!

____________________

straight talk:

@ Everyone! Especially McCain Supporters!

WHY DON't McCain get some offices opened up in GEORGIA! There is 500,000+ AA in the State! And the only people on the ground in the state is the OBama Campaign! Obama supporters are in line waitin 6+ hours casting votes!

FACT: IN THE PRIMARies OBAMA ALWAYS Did BETTER THAN HIS AVG SHOWS IN SOUTHERN STATES. In North Carilino he was projected to win by 5-6% and he carred that state by 14%. Watch GEORGIA THAT IS THE REAL BACK BREAKER! Landslide Alert...........


____________________

Atomique:

Awwww snap, Obama just pwned McCain!

"By the end of the week, he'll be accusing me of being a secret communist because I shared my toys in kindergarten. I shared my peanut butter and jelly sandwich."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FiSinlcBfkk

____________________

laguna_b:

The first task of Obama will be to heal the damages McCain has done, then he has to start on the 8 years of catastrophe from Bush.....

Imagine if Mccain were to win at this point how much more he could do in 4 years????

____________________

CTPonix4BHObama:

@boskop

So do you believe that John McCain is trying to seek approval from his dead father by accomplishing more than the Admiral McCain did? I mean, I always thought it was pretty clear he was trying to scream for attention from daddy by acting out in angst. Also, about starting more wars, I'm pretty sure McCain is still fighting the vietnam war in his head, and I dont understand how starting more war is a disqualifier for Obama but not McCain.

Obviously the rest of statement you made is just patently ridiculous...kinda not worth going through line by line.

____________________

laguna_b:

The republican party is becoming the NEW American Nazi Party....uniforms will arrive shortly....

____________________

NashvilleLefty:

"once before we had a president who thought he was a citizen above restraints and checks and balances. he over played his hand on the world stage and was taken down in dallas. he deserved it."

"Deserved it"?

Good luck with the secret service, you POS.

____________________

CTPonix4BHObama:

@Stonecreek

I've noticed that Obamas support goes down when he is away from the trail and the american people.

____________________

laguna_b:

McCain was a failure at Annapolis and after losing as many planes as he did before the Vietnamese stopped him, he would have been tossed out if Daddy was not a Naval big wig.....his ONLY act of heroism was being a great POW.

____________________

carl29:

Miami? This is the most anti-American place in the US. I say anti-American because there is nothing most anti-American than treathing someone for his or her political views.

____________________

Atomique:

@laguna_b

Seriously. I was foolish enough to think earlier this year that John McCain might actually have some integrity and run an honorable campaign so we could have an intelligent discourse about finding solutions to the problems facing this country.

Instead, the minute McCain found himself slipping in the polls his campaign turned into a cesspool of hate. It's sad, really. But what can you expect from the same people who got Bush elected twice?

Vote hope not hate.

____________________

laguna_b:

Bush was taken out in Dallas??? Why is that not on the MSM???

____________________

BrookLynda:

There's a simple reason McCain stays in PA: he cannot win without it.

It doesn't matter how far behind he is. If he concedes PA, he might as well concede the whole election. And his team can keep telling themselves there could be a 15-point Bradley/PUMA/redneck effect...

Go to an interactive map, and find a plausible path to victory for McPlanecrash that does not include PA, and you'll see what I mean.

____________________

No, Kennedy was killed because Old Man Joe made a deal with the Mob to get Jack elected in exchange for leniency on the Mob. Then Bobby came in and started cracking down on them. Same reason Bobby was killed on the night he clenched the nomination.

____________________

laguna_b:

@atomique
"But what can you expect from the same people who got Bush elected twice?"

Seriously, I think Bush was a gentleman by any comparrison....McCains' campaign has got to be a new low for america....

____________________

laguna_b:

Even Rove was wincing at the bold faced lies McCain tossed out in the beginning and was called on....

If Obama has shown ONE thing, it is that you can win with stable, issue driven, sober, positive campaigning.

____________________

MichaelJason:

Boskop.. is.. just.... SAD! Very mentally imbalanced person. I have now put him next to Boomshak for posts I will skip when reading threads :)

____________________

lhtk:

Seems like there's been, considering all the polling on so many other battleground states lately, a real dearth of polling on MO. Anyone know of any coming out soon?

____________________

Trosen:

carl29:
"Miami? This is the most anti-American place in the US. I say anti-American because there is nothing most anti-American than treathing someone for his or her political views."

Unfortunately you're exactly right. Miami is one of the most hostile, hateful places on earth. Lots of different ethnic groups, but sadly, those over the age of 35 it seems like to collect themselves into small bands and hate everyone else that doesn't look like them or speak their language. And every group is guilty of it. (sadly, my people included)

____________________

Incumbent:

Uh, NashvilleLefty, you know I was just quoting boskop about the "he deserved it" line, right?

Don't want anyone calling the secret service on ME! ;-)

____________________

zoot:

Boskop, you're a very sick puppy. I hope you find peace somewhere in your life, but it may take some therapy sessions to get you there.

____________________

carl29:

Trosen,

You and I know what kind of disgraceful place Miami is. This is the place where TERRORISTS walk freely and are treated like patriots. There are people here in Miami who were victims of bombs, yes BOMBS, in the 70's and 80's just because of their political views. If you don't think exactly like them, they would destroy you literally and figurately.

The father of Mr. Alberto Milian (a well known Republican/Cuban attorney) was the victim of bombs that blew up his legs just because he advocated for dialogue between Cubans in the island and Cubans in Miami. The things that you see here in Miami, you can't see them anywhere in the US. And, I live here :-(

____________________

FromSarkoToObama:

Did Obama already made a speach with a blue jean, it's amazing to see him wearing such clothes.

____________________

Obama_is_tight:

Yes sir (FromSarkoToObama:)
And he did it in the pouring cold rain. Just goes to show how hard he works for this thing. He will really be a "transformational" president!

____________________

thereisnospoon:

hey boskop,

Clinton lost. Get over it and drown your racist sorrows elsewhere. Agent Flowbee and hillariousis44 are still running their anti-Obama screeds. Stay there.

____________________

carl29:

I won't judge Boskop feelings because I find them pretty disturbing and painful to be honest. I only hope that he or she can find inner peace. God bless him/her.

____________________

MichaelJason:

Man, Rasmussen is so full of SH*T! He is now saying voters trust McCain now on the Economy, taxes, and to handle an economic crisis. That contradicts WSJ, Newsweek, Zogby, even IBD!!!!

____________________

Brian:

Don't believe the numbers in the state poll.

Barack Obama’s deputy campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand said: “John McCain is right. Things are tightening in the battleground states.”

Obama's GOTV has urgent needs that have yet to be met.

http://bourbonroom.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/10/29/obama-memo-race-is-tightening-in-battleground-states/

____________________

thoughtful:

I thought I'd post something for Boskop, a lady of quite incredible intellect. But her post is beyond rationale - it is simply evil.

As regards the different state of play today.

Not a good or happy day for John McCain. Red states are slipping further and further from his grasp. He is double digit behind in blue states.

It really will require a comeback in the space of week in voter's preference of the supernatural for McCain to win.

I have it at 390+EVs and can see absolutely no evidence in states polling to change that forecast.

I don't even see evidence that the undecideds that are left breaking 50/50 let alone the majority in McCain's favour.

____________________

boomshak:

These polls are 3 days old and don't reflect McCain's most recent surge. Pretty useless.

____________________

MichaelJason:

Now, Gallup AND Washington Post poll show Obama is AHEAD on the issues of taxes, the economy, and the economic crisis. Rasmussen again is touting this fishy BULL**** right before the election to try and swing things.

____________________

straight talk:

@ Poll watchers, not politicians!

I know Pennsylvania is McCains last stand! But if Obama has comfortable leads in the west, which means he could lose ohio, pennsylvania, and florida! ALl he would need is kerry states + NM, IA, CO, Va, and Nevada! McCain Camp is being narrow minded! There is more than one way to 270!

____________________

Thatcher:

Hey - isn't IBD/TIPP out by now, usually? What's up with that?

____________________

thoughtful:

boomshak

what recent surge?

____________________

The_Huntsman:

Best wishes to you, Boskop. You are clearly a very, very troubled person and I hope you get the help you need. I mean that very sincerely.

____________________

Thatcher:

@thoughtful -

don't you know? one poll moving in McCain's favor is a surge.

____________________

mysticlaker:

http://thepage.time.com/

For those who have been following my rants about why mccain has been failing, I'd like a little kudos...

kitchen sink verus laser guided misseles.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Thatcher

Which poll is in McCain's favor?

He's not even safe in his home state of Az.

____________________

Incumbent:

Now if McCain could develop a missile-guided kitchen sink THEN he'd be onto something.

____________________

hou04:

IBD/TIPP

Obama 46.9
McCain 43.9

Ridiculous poll data again. They finally did flip 18-24 vote back to Obama by a substantial margin... BUT, Obama is leading pretty much in every age group and still up by only 3 ???

Come on, right-wingers!

____________________

straight talk:

@ McCain SupporterS

Where is the Surge? Rassmusen lost crediblility when he gave in to the right wing! There are ZERO state polls showing this race is tightening! AND LET US NOT FORGET WHAT POLLSTER HAD McCain DOWN by 1%, "AP".

So if Obama is up Nationally 1% according the AP poll, why is Obama lead growing in the battleground states!

____________________

AdamSC:

Tommorrow:

Gallup will show Obama up +4 in traditional likely voters and +8 in registered voters.

Rasmussen will show a +5 point lead for Obama.

It's only going up after that with Obama's 30 minute discussion and after seeing Bill Clinton campaigning with Obama.

All this talk of 'lagging' state polls is ridiculous. That's just Boomshak's excuse for every poll that shows a lead for Obama.

____________________

NW Patrick:

I love it. Some of the state polls are as FRESH as Rasmussen, save it Boom****.

____________________

Disco Stu:

Boom's talking about the surge that only HE knows about...but has yet to be (and won't be) survered! lol

____________________

MichaelJason:

TIPP/IBD (in the tank for McCain pollster)
O+3

____________________

Thatcher:

Hmmmm ...

RCP has posted the IBD/TIPP poll O 47 - M 44 - but it's not on IBD site or TIPP site.

BTW boomshak ... you never did respond ...

On September 19 you said:

Unless Barack has a 5 point lead a week before the election, he loses by 1-2 points.

It's now 6 days until the election and he has a 5.9 point lead on RCP's average. Will you concede?

____________________

ricbrig:

One questions, will the poll be available until monday?

____________________

venpry:

boskop:

You have every right to your opinions and to express them as you see fit, but that was a very long opinion piece with little zero fact to substantiate your wild claims. Simply claiming that Obama is a bully, that he "cheated" and stoops to "sleazy tactics" isn't going to convince anyone with reasonable intellect of anything... perhaps if you presented some hard evidence that supported your claims you might.

"once before we had a president who thought he was a citizen above restraints and checks and balances. he over played his hand on the world stage and was taken down in dallas. he deserved it."

This, is another assertion that is not supported by fact. I will not take up the point of whether Kennedy acted as you suggest. However, I will say that anyone who says that any sitting President deserved to be assassinated needs to check both their morality and patriotism. No moral person wishes death upon another; no patriot wishes death upon their President.


Anyway, your point that "once" before is factually wrong. In the past forty years we have had two presidents who are more aptly characterized by your description than Obama: Nixon and GW Bush.

Nixon acted like he was above the law. I don't think I need to go into the history on that.

W has done everything in his power to centralize power in the office of the president beyond what was granted by the constitution. He and his VP have overreached the accepted standard of executive privilege. They have trampelled FISA for no reason. Attempted to politicize the Justice Department in order to solidify power. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.

____________________

Brian:

If you drop out Pew (an obvious outlier), the RCP average is 4.7%.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Thatcher

boom conceded a couple weeks ago, but he still hopes.

he knows, forget the polls, even in his home state NC, he didn't imagine 2 months ago, Obama would win it, and he knows.

____________________

Brian:

I am sorry it is 4.8% rounded up.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@huo...

IBD is overweighting the south. Just look at the internals:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY17.htm

____________________

straight talk:

People who think OBama is havin a GOTV effort problem are kidding themselves! The early voting numbers are going for the record books!

The OBAMA CAMPAIGN WILL PUSH THE NOTION THAT THINGS ARE TIGHTENING TO DRIVE THEIR PEOPLE TO THE POLLS!

AND fox news are helping them and they don't even know it!

____________________

ricbrig:

4.7% on a RCP average (though I prefer 538 weighted average) is still good. I foresee 3% on RCP by monday for Obama

____________________

mysticlaker:

Surge continues:

Rasmussen

Michigan
O-53
M-43

Minnesota
O-55
M-43

Alaska
M-57
O-41

____________________

bmrKY:

@boom

McCain WILL NOT win Pennsylvania. There is no surge in Pennsylvania. The PA tracker still has Obama up double digits. Registered dems out number registered reps in Pennsylvania by 1.2 million. Obama was leading in Pennsylvania before the financial crisis, and he is still leading, now by double digits. Rendell even says that at the worst case scenario, Obama leads in Pennsylvania by 6 points. There will be no Pennsylvania surge for John McCain. Meanwhile, as McCain continues to flail away in Pennsylvania, he is to losing valuable ground in battlegrounds such as Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, and even his home state. The working class dems are clearly coming home to Obama.

Sorry to burst your bubble, boom****.

____________________

ctj:

Well the ridiculous IBD poll is out with their fine proprtional breakdowns. I wonder if by the end of the week they will have 90% of the 18-29 vote going to McCain?

____________________

NW Patrick:

Brian 4.7 average with 3 business days to go. That's awesome. Bush had a 1.5% average. Obama's RCP average lead WITHOUT the Blooms poll is still 3 times Bush.

____________________

DocnTN:

QUESTION: Gov. Crist was interviewed on MSNBC and stated that internals showed 3-4 pt. lead for McSame in Florida. This is not my field, so can someone answer for me why these internal polls are touted by the campaigns (besides the obvious-- to lead us to believe the race is much closer than it really is). Is there any veracity to campaign claims showing internal polls with vastly different results than the public polls?

____________________

Boskop

That was a load of garbage and you know it.

____________________

thoughtful:

@brian

Pew is not an obvious outlier at all. Compare it to the CBS and ABC polls etc.

Look at the internals.

Have a look at the Battleground states.

Look at the averages on the dark blue states.

50% of the electorate think McCain is too old. Even more than that think Palin not qualified.

____________________

Thatcher:

@Brian -

Change the rules to fit your world much?

Fine - yesterday it was 6.7 including the Pew poll - but 5.8 without it. And since boomshak said "a week before the election", which was yesterday - the question still stands.

____________________

Brian:

Yeah the Obama GOTV is going as planned all over.

http://www.lvrj.com/news/33494194.html

____________________

mysticlaker:

DocTn:

Do you think if that was true McCain would be in Flordia today (and likely 1 more time before election day)?

Also, as many of us have learned (and you can look at the IBD poll as an example), any poll can give you the answer you want by phrasing/choosing how you poll?

I could give you an obama/mccain 70-30% lead across the 50 states if I called phone numbers in certaint parts of the state only.

Don't worry about the internal polls...We have no access to them. We have access to a PLETHORA of non-partisan pollster doing state polls for us, many of which release internals.

____________________

Thatcher:

DocnTN:

They need to show this race is competitive - but leaning to their candidate so that the supporters don't become the "well, he's going to lose, my one vote won't matter" and not vote.

It's purely about perception and nothing else.

____________________

carl29:

DocnTN,

You talk about "internals" when you are scared of losing and are trying to galvanized your people to come out and vote.

*I still remember Guliani talking about the internals and the surprise victory he will have on Jan. 29, the night of the Republican primary. Um...I wander what happened? :-)

____________________

straight talk:

@ McCain Supporters

Why is your candidate not closing the Gap? PeW is one of the most accurate pollsters out their! The have OBama up by 15%! WHy not? He is up + 5% in all the Battle grounds! And he is even closing in deep red states like Az, GA,Mt.

OBAMA IS UP BY AT LEAST 7+ NATIONALLY!!!

____________________

boomshak:

KHALIDI VIDEO RUMOR - FOXNEWS HAS IT AND WILL RELEASE IT TOMORROW!

http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/29/something-is-definitely-up-palin-is-setting-the-stage-for-something-today/

The newest rumor going around the blogosphere is that FoxNews either 1)has the Khalidi Video or 2) has seen it. Nevertheless, the rumor is that the video may be aired publicly tomorrow to steal Obama's thunder from his informercial tonight just as Sarah Palin stole his acceptance speech thunder.

Oj, those sneaky damned Republicans!

____________________

ThisLandIsMyLand:

Gallup for registered voters today:

O: 51
M: 42

____________________

thoughtful:

@boomshak

counter productive. It really is about the economy stupid

____________________

boomshak:

MAN, TALK ABOUT CONSENSUS!

Rasmussen Reports 10/26 - 10/28 3000 LV 2.0 50 47 Obama +3
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/26 - 10/28 2435 LV 2.0 49 46 Obama +3
IBD/TIPP 10/24 - 10/28 894 LV 3.0 47 44 Obama +3
GWU/Battleground 10/22 - 10/28 1000 LV 3.1 49 46 Obama +3

The BAD NEWS for Obama is that he is below 50% in 3 of those polls.

____________________

NW Patrick:

DocnTN the internal poll argument is BULL****. The internals often match the externals. I've been searching for an answer to your question for MONTHS and haven't seen 1 article on it. They poll JUST LIKE anyone else by calling. Most internals are designed more for WHAT KIND of commercial works in TN vs. CA, etc., they rely on external pollsters as much as we do. Reminder - In '04 the RCP average for ALL pollsters was a 1.5% Bush lead. Who won? BUSH BY 1.5%. So much for "internals."

____________________

mysticlaker:

HAHA Boom...HAHA Boom...

____________________

Brian:

First off, I agree the Obama is in a strong position right now.

Second, Pew is using a very questionable voter model this time around. It is one that resembles nothing they have ever used before.

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak bad news for McCain is that even with the MINIMUM OBama pollsters, it's still TWICE Bush's win %. Good luck with that!

____________________

cambridge blue:

Boom,

Is fox releasing the LA Times tape before or after the API/Michelle Obama kill whitey tape? LOL.

____________________

AdamSC:

Khalidi Video won't have any effect. People will view it as just another negative attack from the McCain campaign that has no credibility.

John McCain is making a big mistake if he turns his campaign negative again in the final days of the election. People are tired of it.

Besides, when have we heard that FOX news will 'release' a shocking tape with some new Obama revelation and it hasn't happened.

John McCain also donated like half a million to Khalidi.

____________________

DCDemocrat:

bommshak: I bet you're praying that turnout in 2008 matches turnout in 2004.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Yes..Everyone is going to be naked at this party, worshipping allah. It's going to rock the world.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Internals = "I KNOW HOW TO GET BIN LADEN." Same argument. If that's the case dumb****, why haven't you shared this intelligence?

____________________

DocnTN:

@ mysticlaker, Thatcher, carl 29 THANK YOU.

Sometimes living in Nashville being surrounded by McCain posters makes an Obama supporter a little neurotic and convinced the tide is turning at any moment.

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful:
@boomshak

It really is about the economy stupid

Exactly, and the American Public doesn't want a Jew-hating Sociialist running the economy.

Face it, Obama has never been a tax-cutter. Ever. He is promising to be a tax-cutter now. Why should we believe him? We have to look to his character.

This tape goes to his character.

Also, if he loses the jewish vote, he is done. Many Christians also support the Jewish State so he loses them too.

There is a REASON the LATimes is risking ruining what reputation they have left to hide this tape - whatever is on it is VERY damaging to Obama.

And don't give me that crap about the "source made us promise not to show it". Who the hell gives a video tape to the press on the condition they never show it?

____________________

thoughtful:

boom

If McCain can't get to 47% in NC: he won't get to 44% in the national poll, not that its the national poll that mattters.

390+EVs

____________________

NW Patrick:

Brian Pew voter model? Exactly why the polling "average" is key. McCain needs to come within 2 points in the AVERAGE by Tuesday to have a chance at the electoral college. He won't.

____________________

boomshak:

Wow, Dow skyrocketing again today. Gas almost $2 a gallon. Not good news for Obama.

____________________

mac_1103:

Kennedy was killed because Old Man Joe made a deal with the Mob to get Jack elected in exchange for leniency on the Mob. Then Bobby came in and started cracking down on them. Same reason Bobby was killed on the night he clenched the nomination.

I'm trying to figure out why old man Joe didn't let Jack and Bobby know about the scam. Could have saved poor Rose a lot of grief, and maybe himself a stroke or two.

____________________

Brian:

Why do same people feel the need to get vulgar with people that disagree with them?

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak as you said the other day, I will remind you, "I have better things to do than be at this site with the moonbats."

So what are you waiting for? Be gone!

____________________

Mister H.:

Releasing the tape would be one of the dumbest things that the McCain campaign could do.

First of all, it doesn't really prove anything.

Secondly, all the Obama campaign has to do is simply say, "Uh...if McCain is so against the guy, then why did he CONTRIBUTE hundreds of thousands of dollars to him??"

Boomshak: When will you finally acknowledge that things like this largely FALL ON DEAF EARS??!!

People by-and-large do not care. They care about the ECONOMY and HEALTH CARE and other much more relevant issues.

Every day that McCain does something like this, it takes away from his ability to actually separate himself where it matters - the legitimate issues.

The polling, even by conservative groups, is clear - this kind of tactic IS NOT WORKING for McCain.

____________________

ctj:

Survey USA

Ohio- O- 49 M- 45

____________________

mysticlaker:

@boom...

You piece of ****...Where do you live? My address in 33 Sagamore Avenue, Medford MA.

You piece of **** to call Obama a jew-hater. Where are you, so I can kick your ass. You are ignorant racist piece of **** you **** face? What is your address? Give it to me so I can come kick your sorry ass, you pathethic piece of ****.

You have no idea about jewish issues...you piece of filty scum....What is your address you pussy.

____________________

straight talk:

WHO Cares what fox does!

Obama is up 14 Accordin to PEW RESEARCh! Even FOx has him up +9!

Gallup has him up +9!

WHAT SURGE ARE YOU MCCAIN SUPPORTERS SEEING? O and by the way McCain is going to tie himself to Ayers by way of Khalidi! Because if he paints Khalidi as a anti-semetic terroist!

McCAIN FUNDED A ANTI-SEMETIC TERROIST WHO PALS AROUND WITH AN UNREPENTED TERROIST! BilL Ayers!! What a dumb Move!

____________________

NW Patrick:

Fact time. No candidate has EVER won the electoral college leading by 3% or more in the popular vote. So Obama's WORST poll # is 3%. OH NO!

____________________

fox:

According to Boomshak, McCain will have a surge after he loses the election

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@mysticlaker

Whoa whoa, this is exactly the kind of reaction the guy loves man. Don't fall into his racist nonsense.

____________________

Brian:

Fox that was funny.

____________________

paradski:

MAN, TALK ABOUT CONSENSUS!
DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 10/26-28/08 1100 LV 44 50 +6D
Diageo/Hotline 10/26-28/08 870 LV 42 49 6 +7D
Gallup 10/26-28/08 2396 LV 44 51 1 4 +7D
ABC/Post 10/24-27/08 1301 LV 45 52 2 2 +7D
The BAD NEWS for MaCain is that he can’t break 45.

____________________

Thatcher:

MAN, TALK ABOUT CONSENSUS!

Gallup (Expanded)* 10/26-10/28 2409LV Obama +7
Diageo/Hotline 10/26-10/28 870LV Obama +7
ABC News/Wash Post 10/24-10/27 1301LV Obama +7

And McCain is above 45 in NONE of them!

oh and don't forget ...

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/26-10/28 1179LV Obama +5
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/23-10/27 831LV Obama +5

And McCain is still not above 45 in any of them ...

____________________

ctj:

mysticlaker,

Take it down a notch. Boom is not worth it I assure you.

____________________

mac_1103,

I was being facetious ;)

____________________

NW Patrick:

mysticlaker I'll kick his ass with you. These neo-cons are disgusting people. Look at Dole in NC today releasing a commercial saying her apponent is GOD-less. What a ****ing bitch.
The USA will get what it votes for. Rome crashed and burned due to overwhelming overconfidence and better than thou attitude. Sadly, this country is burning fast, at only 200 years old, sad. How else could 1 party literally have destroyed our financial system and respect around the world & have ANY chance to regain power?

Tuesday, my friend, we will all be here smiling at Boom.

____________________

zoot:

mysticlaker - slow down and practice some square breathing. Boomy doesn't know jack about Jews or Jewish issues, he's a bipolar freak, alternating between infrequent contemplative moods and the nastiest kind of provocative know-nothingisms. With friends like Boomy, the Jewish community doesn't need to worry about enemies, they've got one in-house. Given the kind of ignorant ravings that McCain and Palin are stirring up, I suggest that you get the mods to redact your address from the last post.

____________________

Mister H.:

Wow, Boomshak.

I just thought you were a typical Republican. I didn't realize you were a racist one.

Get some help.

____________________

DTM:

Campaigns commission a lot of polls, but only "leak" those which serve their rhetorical purposes.

____________________

boomshak:

@mysticlaker:

Lol, you are actually threatening me publicly? You are aware that that is illegal right? Wow, you liberals are a trip.

If Obama's comments that I have heard are on the video tape are, then yeah, he is anti-semetic.

____________________

NW Patrick:

I personally believe much of our international troubles in the US are DUE to our support of Israel. But hey, it's in the bible so we must defend no matter if they are on the wrong or right side of conflict. Blind support baby! White people couldn't ever be wrong!

____________________

Brian:

Mysticlaker,

Boom's comments may have been stupid, but they were not anywhere approaching a racist comment.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@everyone

Sorry...I can't take the stupidity and racism anymore. I'll go do something else now.

____________________

Thatcher:

@paradski:

Jinx - you owe me a coke.

____________________

BrooklynDoug:

medford, nice. I did a bid in West Somerville many moons ago.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Thanks everyone for pointing out the 5 or 6 recent national polls Boom always leaves out. I still think it's HILLARIOUS because even at the worst poll, 3%, it's electorally impossible for McCain to win.

____________________

political_junki:

"boomshak:
MAN, TALK ABOUT CONSENSUS!

Rasmussen Reports 10/26 - 10/28 3000 LV 2.0 50 47 Obama +3
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/26 - 10/28 2435 LV 2.0 49 46 Obama +3
IBD/TIPP 10/24 - 10/28 894 LV 3.0 47 44 Obama +3
GWU/Battleground 10/22 - 10/28 1000 LV 3.1 49 46 Obama +3

The BAD NEWS for Obama is that he is below 50% in 3 of those polls."

It is not a popular vote election. Obama is 50% where he needs :PA, VA and CO.
Man I wish I could see the face of some of right wing nuts here like you after election night.

____________________

NW Patrick:

2004 BUSH 280+ electoral votes, 1.5% pop vote win. LOL

Good luck McCain!:)

____________________

Thatcher:

@political_junki

"Man I wish I could see the face of some of right wing nuts here like you after election night."

You can't - either their heads are buried in the sand or under their hoods.

____________________

mirrorball:

If Obama's comments that I have heard are on the video tape are, then yeah, he is anti-semetic.

Sounds like you don't need to see the video then. You seem pretty sure what's on it.

The rest is all noise. Just trying to bait, distract, etc.

____________________

Dan:

mysticlaker:

@mysticlaker
"Sorry...I can't take the stupidity and racism anymore. I'll go do something else now."

..well boom is moving from being outrageous entertainment to offensive. Perhaps a sign of desperation, but that should have happened a while ago. Not sure what's up. maybe he's showing his true colors

____________________

NashvilleLefty:

@DocnTN

What Nashville neighborhood are you in, Doc? Both Belmont (where I grew up) and the East End (where I live now) are overwhelmingly filled with Obama signs. In fact, I haven't seen a McCain sign in all of the east side. As far as Nashville goes, Obama will win with +30% or more, which is pretty much the Democratic margin in all big cities.

I work in Brentwood, though, and yeah, the suburbs, especially Williamson County and the rest of Marsha Blackburn-land are all about the Republicans, as usual.

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak Karma is a bitch. The way you spin lies, throw racist comments, and make up **** is just appaling. Based on what you've said about your health, looks like karma has already visited.

____________________

carl29:

First the silver bullet would be Rev. Wrigt
Then it would be Ayers
Now it will be the palestinian guy?

Hurry up guys because you are running out of time :-)

____________________

zoot:

NW Patrick, let's drop it, OK? That's another topic for another time. This kind of mindless black-and-white Manichean who-shot-John view of enormously complex problems has plagued us for the last 25 years or so. and I'm not supporting Obama for the dubious pleasure of trading Right Wing absolutism for Left Wing didacticism.

____________________

boomshak:

What amuses the hell out of me that the democrats are always the first to yell RACIST even when my comment was not racist in the least.

Let me make it clear. I have NO ISSUES with Barack Obama's color. None. I could care less. He could be bright blue for all I care.

My issue is with his politics and his lack of experience and track-record of zero accomplishments of any note. He has been a mediocre Congressman at best and yet he claims he will be a great President?

____________________

ctj:

boom,

I would hardly call Obama anti-semetic, it just so happens that his 2 closest friends from Harvard who he still keeps in contact with are Jewish, I know that because my sister is friendly with Michelle Obama. It is one thing when you spew your ignorant right-winged garbage on here, but it is another to say that the person who is probably going to be the next president is hateful towards a particular religion. So please don't make stupid assumptions when you don't know what the hell you are talking about.

____________________

straight talk:

@ POll watchers, not POliticians!

The associated press released polls showing that Obama is up 1% nationally! And they released polls showin that Obama has healthy leads in Battlegrounds! WHich means that the surge is all noise, not votes! LANDSLIDE ALERT...........

____________________

DocnTN:

@Boomshak

I highly recommend a full psychiatric evaluation STAT.

Instead of promoting rigorous thought or asking questions with a modicum of decency, you insult and tear people down in a nonsensical way. You really need help, man.

____________________

oicu:

I never cease to be surprised by how low repugnicans can go. What a pig Elizabeth Dole is. Anyone who votes for her now is adopting her total lack of morality.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/29/dole-ad-fabricates-audio_n_138874.html

____________________

JCK:

If Obama wins the popular vote 51-48, it's not even going to be close in the electoral college.

____________________

hou04:

Best way to handle BOOMSHAK: completely DISREGARD, IGNORE, ALL of his postings.

Just IGNORE his comments. Don't address them just like they don't exist.

____________________

Thatcher:

@boomstak

Why not just drop the video tape until it comes out ... because until you see it you don't know what is truly on it. Any speculation and putting forward the unfounded rumour that Obama is anti-Semitic is racism in itself - because what you are trying to do is pit one race (Jewish) against a person without any facts.

____________________

boomshak:

ctj:

So it is ok to call Republicans a "racist" at the drop of a hat, but we can't call Obama a racist even when there is evidence.

Oh, ok, I get it.

____________________

Tarheel119:

Here are the facts: The Republicans cannot win on the issues. The economy sucks. We are in two wars that the administration has no idea how to run. People are scared in this country. So how do you win? You try to make the other person look as scary as possible. In this election year, its a little easier because the candidate happens to be black. So you can call him Socialist and it sticks easier. You can call him a terrorist and it sticks easier. This is what the Republican Party has become!

____________________

hou04:

Guys, look... all BLUE.. wherever you look today

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/

____________________

DocnTN:

@Nashville Lefty

I recently moved to Brentwood, TN but am originally from Brentwood California =) Boy, the politics in those two places could not be any different!

I guess compartively speaking there's a lot more McCain supporters out here. Glad to hear there's also plenty of other people going against the grain.

Obama-Biden '08

____________________

political_junki:

Actually I am happy McSame is focusing on the palestinian guy. He was doing ok hitting Obama in economy, tax etc. Idiot that he is, he has changec his message again! Lots of good Ayres did him , this new thing will be the same, just distraction from a strategy that he actually was gaining from.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

I don't think anyone can really say the 30-minute ad was a bad idea now. He needs to be on TV as often as possible to remind people he's not really a muslim-communist-terrorist. If he cant lock up support going into the weekend then it will be a good move.

____________________

Thatcher:

@hou04-

you mean this list? :)

Obama +9 Colorado Associated Press/GfK
Obama +2 Florida Associated Press/GfK
Obama +2 Florida Quinnipiac
Obama +3 National IBD/TIPP
Obama +3 National GWU/Battleground
Obama +3 National Rasmussen Reports
Obama +5 National Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby
Obama +7 National Gallup (Expanded)*
Obama +7 National Diageo/Hotline
Obama +3 National Gallup (Traditional)*
Obama +12 Nevada Associated Press/GfK
Obama +18 New Hampshire Associated Press/GfK
Obama +2 North Carolina Associated Press/GfK
Obama +3 Ohio Marist
Obama +9 Ohio Quinnipiac
Obama +7 Ohio Associated Press/GfK
Obama +13 Pennsylvania Franklin & Marshall
Obama +14 Pennsylvania Marist
Obama +12 Pennsylvania Quinnipiac
Obama +12 Pennsylvania Associated Press/GfK
Obama +7 Virginia Associated Press/GfK
Obama +12 Washington Strategic Vision (R)

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

It should say can* lock up support it will be a good move.

____________________

political_junki:

GOP's Horror Sequel Is Almost A Wrap

NEXT QUESTION: WHAT KIND OF DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY WILL OBAMA GUIDE?
Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2008
by Charlie Cook
Late Monday afternoon I was standing in front of 200 or so congressional staff members when someone in the front row handed me a Blackberry with the news bulletin announcing Sen. Ted Stevens' seven-count felony conviction. As I read the news flash to the gasping Hill aides one thing jumped into mind: "Foley Friday," Sept. 29, 2006, when news broke of then-GOP Rep. Mark Foley's inappropriate behavior toward a House page. At that point in 2006, Republicans had already been buffeted for a year or more by a then-worsening situation in Iraq and a wide array of scandals. Just as it seemed things could not possibly get worse, they did. Only the most partisan of Democrats or cold-hearted of people would fail to have some compassion or sympathy towards a party for which virtually everything has gone wrong. Someone recently likened it to watching a wounded dog kicked.

For a time it was thought that perhaps some huge foreign policy event or crisis could refocus public attention away from the current 100 percent concentration on the economy. Perhaps Russia invading the Ukraine, North Korean firing a missile off the coast of Japan, Israel deciding to take out a nuclear facility in Iran or something else might dilute the unrelenting rain on the heads of Republicans. But now, even an apparent U.S. special forces raid into Syria is hardly drawing notice. This cake looks baked.


Filibusters are about specific issues, and whether there would be 60 votes to break a filibuster would depend on the issue.


Cook Political Report House Editor David Wasserman compares the National Republican Congressional Committee to a bankrupt investment house, with no one able or willing to step in to bail out bad assets. He suggests that the stock market's plunge and Sen. John McCain's dismal polling numbers coincided with the window of time House Democrats had the airwaves largely to themselves. GOP insiders describe a playing field on which even non-incumbent Democratic House candidates with upside-down favorability ratings, those with higher unfavorable than favorable poll numbers, are still in the game. In other words, it doesn't necessarily matter how much voters like or dislike the Democratic alternative; they care more about voting against President Bush and the party they perceive to have mishandled the economy. And some just want change.

Wasserman says at this point, the choice Republican strategists face is not whether to play offense or defense, but rather where it's still worth playing defense. About 10 of the GOP's 29 open seats are leaning Democratic and another 10 are highly competitive. Ten GOP incumbents are trailing their challengers or tied at best, and another 10 maintain very precarious leads in single digits. All the signs of another big "wave" election are apparent, and a gain of 24-30 seats for House Democrats is the most likely outcome on the bell curve of possibilities.

In the other chamber, Cook Political Report Senate Editor Jennifer Duffy is now pointing to a Republican loss of seven to nine seats, but does not dismiss the possibility that their losses might hit 10 seats. Three Republican open seats -- in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado -- are gone, while four GOP incumbents -- Sens. Elizabeth Dole (N.C.), Gordon Smith (Ore.), Stevens (Alaska) and John Sununu (N.H.) -- are trailing their Democratic challengers by a few points. That's four Republicans seats that Democrats have a slightly better than a 50-50 chance of gaining, bringing the total to seven seats.

Republicans are slightly favored to hold on to three more of their seats -- Sens. Saxby Chambliss (Ga.), Norm Coleman (Minn.) and Roger Wicker (Miss.). Finally, Sen. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky holds a wider lead over Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford, but he hasn't put the race away yet.

If the Democratic wave breaks over this last group of four races, Republicans would lose a total of 11 seats. That outcome is possible, but unlikely. Duffy has argued for years that history shows that the closest races rarely split down the middle. The majority of races that are too close to call on Election Day generally fall to one party or the other. In 2006, Democrats won eight of the nine most competitive contests. In the 1982 Reagan midterm election, held in the midst of a recession, Republicans held all their seats by winning a bunch of races by razor-thin margins, while they lost 26 seats in the House.

Too much attention is placed on whether Democrats get to 60 seats, treating that number as if it were some arbitrary sign of control, a filibuster-proof Senate. However, this notion ignores the reality that filibusters are about specific issues, and whether there would be 60 votes to break a filibuster would depend on the issue. Is Connecticut's Joe Lieberman on board with Democrats, or not? It depends on the issue. The same could be asked of Nebraska's Ben Nelson and a half dozen or so returning Democratic moderates. What about some of the more moderate to conservative new Democrats coming in. Are they on board or not? What about the few remaining moderate to liberal Republican senators? On board, or not? Things aren't quite as cut-and-dry as they seem.

Unless something pretty earth-shattering happens, the presidential race is not so much about who wins. At this point, it's pretty clear who that is going to be. It's how big, how many states, what kind of margin and what kind of Congress Barack Obama will have to deal with. Then it is how he would lead them, what tone, in what direction.

Republicans can't wait for this year to be over. It's been a year-long Halloween, with very, very few and extremely brief breaks. You can't blame them.

____________________

pbcrunch:

The myth of the state polling lag: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/myth-of-lag.html

____________________

ctj:

Boom,

I have good and dear friends that are republicans that are the furthest thing from racists. Being a conservative does not make someone a racist, in fact true conservative phillosophy speaks ardently against racisim, while at the same time cherishing individual rights and limited government. That is not racism it is simply a belief (one that I happen not to agree with, but that is beside the point). If Obama really did go to this party it does not make him an anti-semite.

____________________

Thatcher:
____________________

Obama_is_tight:

political_junki:

Yeah I completely agree. McCain and his campaign are so lost it's not even funny anymore. Plus the 30min spot will have a lot more resonance with this nonesense and the closing polls. Not overkill anymore. See Obama plays "chess and go" (strategy) and McCain plays "dice" (luck). On Nov 4th we will see which is a better game.

____________________

boomshak:

INTRADE MOVING FOR MCCAIN:

It's not a lot (+3.7), but that's the first positive movement for McCain in weeks.

____________________

Brian:

Thatcher what he said isn't racist. It is stupid, but not racist. Throwing racism out there whenever someone says something stupid does nothing but lead to people tuning out when actual racism occurs. What you and others on here are doing is actually more dangerous overall than what Boom did.

____________________

political_junki:

"boomshak:
INTRADE MOVING FOR MCCAIN:

It's not a lot (+3.7), but that's the first positive movement for McCain in weeks."

Hurry up BOOM hurry up. McCain is going to be 50 tomorrow. Make some money :-))))))))

____________________

hou04:

This is PRICELESS! From Nate Silver.... myth about state polls lagging...

"Here's a fun little reality check for those of you who are sweating the trackers. Since our last update yesterday evening, I have added 34 polls to my database, including both state and national numbers. Barack Obama is ahead in 32 of those 34 polls. The two exceptions are in Arizona and Alaska, the home states of John McCain and his VP nominee, respectively."

www.fivethirtyeight.com

____________________

boomshak:

MCCAIN NEEDS TO REPRISE THE REAGAN AD AGAINST THE DEMOCRATS?

"Are you better off than you were 2 years ago? When the Democrats took over Congress? They promised so much, delivered so little and accepted responsibility to for nothing..."

____________________

straight talk:

Why are OBAMA supporters always freakin out!
OBama is winning and stay cool about the accusations and tightening in polls! But his supporters are just so anxious! McCain supporters know that he is going to lose, but they are going down with a positive attitude! Obama Suppporters are challenging everthing from polls to false statments about Obama! PLEASE CHILL OUT! Obama is on pace to win 300+ on election day!

____________________

boomshak:

Nate Silver has his head shoved so far up Obama's *ss that he has lost all objectivity.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@boomshak

He cant make the computer and the numbers lie.

____________________

Brian:

Strait talk is exactly right.

Some of the Obama supporters are whack jobs. You would think that there are polls coming out that were only sampling Repubs and showed McCain up by 40 from some of the reactions on here.

____________________

boomshak:

This is HUGE from Rasmussen:

McCain Trusted More on Taxes and Economy
Wednesday, October 29, 2008

After several weeks of John McCain’s campaign attacks on Barack Obama’s tax plan and idea of “spreading the wealth around”, the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds voters trust McCain more than Obama on taxes, 47% to 45%.

____________________

ricbrig:

striaht if you shout PLEASE CHILL OUT! we don't chill out at all!! lol
However I must say that Nate Silver is the real discovery of these elections. The man has a real gift in divulgating numbers, which I, as a researcher find really helpful.
Now I hope that on top of that he is right!

____________________

Inkan1969:

@boomshak

The whole world is a LOT worse off now than they were EIGHT years ago...

____________________

carl29:

Have boomshak mention anything about Obama doing better with Gallup and Zogby? Oh, my mistake. They are wrong and flawed because it is McCain who is surging not Obama :-)

____________________

Vercingetorix:

"MCCAIN NEEDS TO REPRISE THE REAGAN AD AGAINST THE DEMOCRATS?"
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/are_you_better_off_rev_2.php

D'oh!

____________________

ricbrig:

it was straight sorry for the typo

____________________

mirrorball:

MCCAIN NEEDS TO REPRISE THE REAGAN AD AGAINST THE DEMOCRATS?

Too late! The guy who did the original Reagan ad just cut one using Reagan's debate line in a pro-Obama ad. Ouch. Really good ad too, I must say.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/are_you_better_off_rev_2.php

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@boomshak

for gods sake. can you at least link the stuff you quote.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Hey Boomshak. It's over. Care to make your prediction?

____________________

Obama_is_tight:

We have to worry and then GOTV if not--John Kerry might be revisited. We must not let up this year!

____________________

whoshotsam:

Has boomshak mentioned anything about the Dow closing down by 80 points after "soaring"? What a complete tool.

____________________

DCDemocrat:

Voter Master at Electoral Vote dot com observes about 2004:

In 46 states plus D.C. the candidate leading in the polls a week before the election did, in fact, carry the state.
____________________

ctj:

Any concern about the new Ras poll showing McCain and Obama essentially tied on the economy and taxes?

____________________

NW Patrick:

Remember long ago when being conservative meant FISCALLY? Now we have the biggest spending Republican president in the history of mankind. Yet they are "conservative." LOL
JESUS! (no pun intended)

____________________

sunnymi:

@boomshak, you said "Wow, Dow skyrocketing again today. Posted on October 29, 2008 3:24 PM "

Wow! Boomshak you are as effective as Bush....
Since you made this comment the market barely moved up another 40 points and then tanked 400 points)

____________________

NW Patrick:

ctj no concern since literally every other pollster says the opposite:)

____________________

hou04:

NH number from Rasmussen, anyone?

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

CNN MAP CHANGES...OBAMA SURGING AHEAD IN ELECTORAL COLLEGE

CNN electoral map just changed Colarado to leaning Obama (it's about time)!

New CNN polls just coming out...all good for Obama.

____________________

Thatcher:

DOW closes down 70 points. Even having the Fed cut rate by 1/2 point didn't create the "surge" of boomshak's hopes.

____________________

hou04:

List those CNN polls!

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

NEW TIME/CNN POLLS:

Colorado: Obama 53, McCain 45
Florida: Obama 51, McCain 47
Georgia: McCain 52, Obama 47
Missouri: McCain 50, Obama 48
Virginia: Obama 53, McCain 44

Obama is marching South...

____________________

ctj:

NW Patrick,

I am going to be honest I have a feeling Ras is going to tighten tomorrow and then I would start getting concerned. Zogby and IBD you can wipe your butt with as far as I am concerned, but I think Ras is a pretty good and fair pollster despite Scott Rasmussen's conservative leanings. I am staying calm, but am concerned.

____________________

chesirecat47:

CNN
Colorado
Obama 53
McCain 45

____________________

Thatcher:

Georgia and Missouri now become the only "red" on RCP's list today ...

I was going to say earlier - the reason we don't see red is no one is polling Georgia, Alaska.

lol

____________________

NW Patrick:

In a new survey — one of five new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation state polls released Wednesday — 53 percent of likely Colorado voters questioned say that Obama is their choice for president, with 45 percent backing McCain. That 8 point lead for Obama is double the 4 point advantage he held in our last poll, taken two weeks ago.

"Older voters in Colorado have started to break Obama's way." CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Two weeks ago he was losing the over-50 crowd by a couple of points. Now he has a five-point edge among them."

____________________

sunnymi:

CNN/TIME polls

Colorado
Obama 53
McCain 45

Florida
Obama 51
McCain 47

Georgia
McCain 52
Obama 47

Missouri
McCain 50
Obama 48

Virginia
Obama 53
McCain 44

____________________

boomshak:

THE PROBLEM WITH OBAMA'S COMMERCIAL:

1) First of all, I think most people already figure they know everything about Obama they want to know. 2 years of campaigning, 3 Presidential Debates, non-stop commercials, non-stop drooling from the MSM. I doubt many people will tune in expecting to hear something new.

2) No drama. People watch the debates for drama. They are hoping a fight breaks out. No drama in 30 minutes of self-congratulation.

3) Who wants to watch someone pat themselves on the back for 30 minutes? People know they are only getting one side of the story. In a word, boring.

4) Putting it right before the World Series so you are almost "forced" to watch is too cute by half.

5) McCain can attack everything he said the next day. Fuel for the fire.

6) People resented Romney outspending everyone else in the Primaries. Will people resent Obama flashing his cash now that word is out that cash may have been at least partially ill-gotten?

BOTTOM LINE:
Obama partisans will watch and love it. McCain partisans will watch and hate it. Undecided voters will watch "2 1/2 Men" and not care.

____________________

Vercingetorix:

"I am going to be honest I have a feeling Ras is going to tighten tomorrow and then I would start getting concerned."

I doubt it. The day that's rolling off is Sunday, which seems to have been a horrible one for Obama. The three day average will go up unless today's polling has been equally horrible.

____________________

laguna_b:

@mirrorball

alk about turning th icon against it idolators! Great ad!

____________________

NW Patrick:

What a great polling day. When you have MULTIPLE pollsters CONFIRMING good leads in KEY KEY states it's makes one smile.

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jdcolombo:

Hi folks.

I'm a first-time poster here, though I've been reading the messages for weeks. I'd suggest we all ratchet down a notch or two.

Obama's campaign always believed this race would be close. They have prepared for it. But the truth is that what you see in the national trackers is a race that has gone from perhaps 6 points in Obama's favor to 4.5 in his favor, and even that presumed tightening is highly dependent on the pollster's LV/turnout assumptions. So let's not all go off the deep end on this. Obama is still well ahead and so far is a lock in all the state polls that matter; the likelihood is that it will remain so, and that he wins on Tuesday with 350+ EV's.

As for Boom, let it go. I think he is simply having a grand time tweaking all us Obama supporters because we're all to some extent paranoid about the election. Could Obama lose? Yes; Iran might already have a nuke that they are going to test tomorrow, too. Neither is very likely. But if McCain wins, the sun will still rise on Wednesday, and the country will still be here - and a strongly Dem Congress will keep the old man from doing anything completely crazy.

Me, I'm going to have a couple of glasses of wine later and listen to some Beethoven or Mahler. I highly recommend Mahler's 2d symphony, which is the most compelling a vision of spiritual redemption ever set to music - though Beethoven's 9th will do in a pinch . . . If you don't feel exhilarated after listening to either of these two masterpieces, you aren't human.

John C.

____________________

Batony:

CNN/Time

Missouri: McCain 50/Obama 48
Florida: Obama 51/McCain 47
Georgia: McCain 52/Obama 47
Virginia: Obama 53/McCain 44
Colorado: Obama 53/McCain 45

What's interesting about Virginia...I have yet to meet one McCain supporter who thinks he will not win Virginia. I keep hearing the "silent majority" will speak on Nov. 4th. We will see.

____________________

chesirecat47:

McCain can tighten the national trackers to his hearts content, but he's got a real big problem in VA, CO, NM, and NH.

Realistically, he needs 3 out of 4 to have a shot and he's trailing WAY outside the margin of error in all 4.

____________________

BUS:

Spread for Obama:

CO O+4 - up 8
VA O-1 - up 9
MO M+1 - down 2
GA (!!!) O+3 - down 5
FL M+1 - up 4

Damn yo - surge baby surge!

____________________

boomshak:

I hope you won't mind if I ignore anything from CNN/TIME.

____________________

maddiekat:

Actually McLiar is dropping one of his best days of polling ever so I think you will see Obama up 5% with Rasmussen tomorrow.

____________________

Mister H.:

Boomshak wroke: "Nate Silver has his head shoved so far up Obama's *ss that he has lost all objectivity."


And how is that any different than your worship of McCain?

____________________

NW Patrick:

I love it every time a HORRIFYING round of state polls go against Boomshack he talks about socialism, infomericals, and the stock market! ROFL

____________________

Trosen:

boomshak:

"BOTTOM LINE:
Obama partisans will watch and love it. McCain partisans will watch and hate it. Undecided voters will watch "2 1/2 Men" and not care."

Hey.. one of those rare times we more or less agree. Although I think a few skiddish soccer moms out there might watch and be like "Hey.. he doesn't look like a scary Ay-rab to me."

But.. assuming you're right.. how exactly does that help McCain at this stage?


And as for this:

ctj:
"Any concern about the new Ras poll showing McCain and Obama essentially tied on the economy and taxes?"

Yes, I'm very concenred about Ras's credibility. When the final exit poll #s come out, McCain will not be within 15 on the question of the economy. Ras knows it. You know it.

____________________

iVote:

CNN said on the ticker that Ralph Nader polled at 4% in Missouri. Does anyone know what the results were with Nader on the ticket? Any chance that it could help close the 2% McCain lead there???

____________________

carl29:

boomshak,

I hope you won't mind if I ignore Rasmussen, Fox, and any other poll I don't like? :-)

You are really funny. Praise if you like, damn if you don't.

____________________

ctj:

Does Rasmussen give you day by day totals like r2k does?

____________________

[nemesis]:

boomshak, we don't mind. You ALWAYS ignore any poll you don't like, so we've gotten used to it. Actually, I don't think anybody would even mind if you left this site and never came back. The days when you had occasional good posts seem to be long gone, and you no longer contribute anything worthwhile.

____________________

NW Patrick:

It's ok Boom you also ignore Survey USA, Rasmussen, the AP, Quinnipac, Zogby, Fox News, Marist, and so on.

____________________

adocarbog:

To: NW Patrick

31 states have early voting. As of today
see link: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
over 16,000,000 have already voted and advantage is Obama. Depending what poll you look at advantage is 10%-20% Obama. It also looks like that as days go by every day beats the previous one in number of voters. Also note that 10 states show no early numbers (only 21 are listed with info on this website). You can safely assume well over 20Mil have voted.

It will simply not be possible for McCain to come back on November 4th even if he ties the polls.
We all remember Kerry closing in in the final days and being optimistic with exit polls only to be crushed when all votes were counted.
In previous elections the organized GOP had an advantage but now it's the Obama machine.

Good to finally have a south side tough politician representing us Democrats.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

GA WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE, NC & VA MIGHT ACTUALLY BE BETTER THAN EXPECTED…

The ground-game in the Southern States is tremendous and AA turnout is amazing. Also, Obama constantly outperformed the polls in the South (sometimes by double digits) during the primaries and this bodes well for GA, NC and VA. Check out Obama's actual performance in these three states vs. the RCP poll average during the primaries:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/dem_results.html

____________________

Thatcher:

@boomshak

We figured as such. If it doesn't fit your world view - you say it's wrong. Just like McCain on MTP last Sunday. You two are definitely peas in a pod.

____________________

Trosen:

Actually.. I should have said... Some southern and midwester yokels might watch the InfoBamercial tonight and be like "Hey.. he don't look like no scary Ay-rabic commie to me."

____________________

Obama_is_tight:

boomshak:
THE PROBLEM WITH OBAMA'S COMMERCIAL:

1) First of all, I think most people already figure they know everything about Obama they want to know. 2 years of campaigning, 3 Presidential Debates, non-stop commercials, non-stop drooling from the MSM. I doubt many people will tune in expecting to hear something new.

2) No drama. People watch the debates for drama. They are hoping a fight breaks out. No drama in 30 minutes of self-congratulation.

3) Who wants to watch someone pat themselves on the back for 30 minutes? People know they are only getting one side of the story. In a word, boring.

4) Putting it right before the World Series so you are almost "forced" to watch is too cute by half.

5) McCain can attack everything he said the next day. Fuel for the fire.

6) People resented Romney outspending everyone else in the Primaries. Will people resent Obama flashing his cash now that word is out that cash may have been at least partially ill-gotten?

BOTTOM LINE:
Obama partisans will watch and love it. McCain partisans will watch and hate it. Undecided voters will watch "2 1/2 Men" and not care.


Hello boomshack...First time posting here though I have been reading the stuff here to get a laugh when work get's boring. You sure keep me entertained. As for the 30 min special why not watch it first and form an opinion then. I think you will be suprised by what you see. ;)

____________________

sunnymi:

@boomshak, you said "I hope you won't mind if I ignore anything from CNN/TIME."

Hey! you can ignore anything but that is not going to change the result....this is a free country and we Dems will not call you names for doing so :-)

____________________

adocarbog:

To: NW Patrick

31 states have early voting. As of today
see link: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
over 16,000,000 have already voted and advantage is Obama. Depending what poll you look at advantage is 10%-20% Obama. It also looks like that as days go by every day beats the previous one in number of voters. Also note that 10 states show no early numbers (only 21 are listed with info on this website). You can safely assume well over 20Mil have voted.

It will simply not be possible for McCain to come back on November 4th even if he ties the polls.
We all remember Kerry closing in in the final days and being optimistic with exit polls only to be crushed when all votes were counted.
In previous elections the organized GOP had an advantage but now it's the Obama machine.

Good to finally have a south side tough politician representing us Democrats.

____________________

No, the people who will be watching Obama tonight on TV and who care are women. Women tend to decide late who they are voting for and Obama knows this. It's why Hillary went on the Hallmark Channel with her town hall meeting.

Obama knows there will be a lot of watch parties (motivating his supporters to go vote) and he also knows that there will be undecided women who watch.

____________________

straight talk:

Now let me say that this is a weird election! THE state polls are saying landslide, but nationall polls are saying to close to call!

Here is my theory! THe partisan pollsters want to show nationally that race is a dead heat so that their supporters will stay interested and go and vote. If nationally the numbers matched the state polls there would be no more talking points to be made by McCain supporters!

But Obama supporters here is why your candidate will win

1. Ethusiam Gap
2. McCain is not doing well with Evangelical support.
3. McCain does not have a coherent strategy!
4. McCain has a White Working Class problems
5. McCain is getting crushe with independents

Just My Opinion!

____________________

hou04:

NEW MEXICO #s from Rasmussen?? Anyone?

____________________

DecaturMark:

Polls are one thing votes are another. Looking at the early voting in NV and NC only, it is showing a very large trend towards Obama with close to 50% voting already. That is 20 EVs that are or were among the toss ups. Even with a McCain PA win (doubtful), how does McCain get to 270?

____________________

NW Patrick:

Sen. Barack Obama intends to overwhelm Sen. John McCain in an air war today that will feature a new television ad, a 30-minute prime-time infomercial on most TV networks, an interview with ABC News anchor Charles Gibson and a late-night appearance on the "The Daily Show."

And what does McCain have? ROFL!

____________________

"4. McCain has a White Working Class problems"

Exactly! You should see the support Obama is getting amongst my (former) coworkers!

____________________

boomshak:

Letting the Homeless Vote [Lisa Schiffren]

Try as I might, I cannot really understand how even a minimum standard of voting security can be maintained when, as an Ohio judge did yesterday, you decide to let the homeless vote. If there is no address — how do you check whether someone has voted before or whether they are using a real name? I get that the judge is attempting to enable fraud on behalf of his campaign — but how does this pass even a minimum test of reasonableness?

Remember how Obama won all of those caucuses, starting with Iowa, where Hillary had been running ahead in polls? According to a bunch of eyewitness, including former candidate Joseph Biden, many Iowa caucuses were won on the strength of voters bused in from Illinois. I hold it against Hillary that she didn't protest at the time. Now, of course, there is no protection to be had. These Chicago Obama supporters can vote in their own district, then get on busses to Ohio where they are now free to cite a given park bench or doorway as their residence, and vote again. I guess that's easier than bringing out the dead, which was the traditional Chicago practice. Although I'm sure they'll be voting too.

____________________

ricbrig:

@Straight

THE state polls are saying landslide, but nationall polls are saying to close to call!

I'm not sure that both are true. The state polls are saying, imho, a comfortable lead. The nationals are saying the race is tight as in every modern big democracy with a margin that is around +3-6% for one of the candidates.
I agree on your four points, although I'm always cautious about enthusiasm, since 1 enthusiastic vote = 1 non enthusiastic vote. The point 3 is certainly one of the reason why the race is at the point it is, since a campaign which goes from tactics to tactics and doesn't really propose anything on its side..is not a winning one.

____________________

carl29:

boomshak,

Don't worry because McMaverick is surging :-)

____________________

Batony:

The good thing for McCain/Palin at least here in Virginia...they are ignoring the polls. They are still out there working and so forth...so who knows.

For me I am not predicting anything. As far as the Palin effect...she is what will drive evangelical support for McCain, otherwise he would really get demolished.

____________________

Thatcher:

@boomshak -

I was a Richardson caucuser in January in Iowa ... and I knew all of the people that were caucusing for Obama in my precinct as neighbors. The "bused in from Illinois" was absurd then - it's still absurd. Lisa Shiffren is a partisan hack and posting it on here as "objective" is just continuing your obfuscation of the truth.

@hou04 -

I believe the 4 state polls from Rasmussen will show a little tightening as they were polled during the same time frame as the tightening in Rasmussen's tracker ... that seems to be the S.O.P.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Yawn. Another national poll released by HARRIS today. Obama up 6 and with 50%+ of the vote. See new chat thread for more info.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ adocarbog:
@ NW Patrick:

If I were McCain, I would be more worried about those early voting figures than the polls. Early voting is how Hillary crushed Obama in California during the primaries. If you'll recall, Obama closed the gap considerably during the last few days but Hillary had run up the score so much that Obama's last day's efforts didn't amount for much.

____________________

Dan:

Uhh Homeless people are still Americans.
They have every right to vote as you do, Boom.

____________________

Trosen:

hou.. don't see anything on Ras about a new NM poll.

____________________

DecaturMark:

@Boom

So you want to deny homeless vets the right to vote?

"How many homeless veterans are there?

Although accurate numbers are impossible to come by -- no one keeps national records on homeless veterans -- the VA estimates that nearly 200,000 veterans are homeless on any given night. And nearly 400,000 experience homelessness over the course of a year. Conservatively, one out of every three homeless men who is sleeping in a doorway, alley or box in our cities and rural communities has put on a uniform and served this country. According to the National Survey of Homeless Assistance Providers and Clients (U.S. Interagency Council on Homelessness and the Urban Institute, 1999), veterans account for 23% of all homeless people in America."

http://www.nchv.org/background.cfm#questions

____________________

Batony:

So this is why everyone is down in Florida:

"However, Crist, citing an internal poll, said on MSNBC that McCain is turning things around in a state that is critical in his quest for an upset win next Tuesday.

I’m hearing some very encouraging numbers, you know, some polls reporting [McCain] three or four points up already in the Sunshine State,” the governor said. "

Great memo from the McCain about internal polling...now I understand why they are still in Pa.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@straighttalk

The national numbers are narrowing, but in key states they are not. It's fine if Obama's folks want to be nervous. They'll work harder. In 1968, for example, Nixon got 301 electoral votes, while George Wallace got, I believe nearly 50. Yet, both Nixon and Humphrey got 43% of the vote. It is extremely unlikely that McCain will win the electoral college vote, unless there is a massive disappearance of the vote among Democrats, young people, AA's, and Latinos. Now that could happen. Running a little scared might make it less likely. So yes! McCain is closing. Be scared. Be very scared.

____________________

IdahoMulato:

I'm thinking we should start something like prediction league based on 3 important factors as follows:

1) EV 100% if correct
2) 50 states: 2% for each of the 50 states
3) This will be based on 2 factors: single digit win or double digits win. 2% for each of the 50 states.

These are my predictions:

1) Obama will win all the Kerry w/ double digits except PA and NH, which will be in high single digits.
2) IA = double digits;
3) CO - single digit;
4) NM - single digit;
5) VA - single digit;
6) FL - single digit;
7) OH - single digit;
8) MO - single digit;
9) NC - single digit..

McCain will win Bush states minus the above. He'll win in double digits except IN, ND, MT, GA, WV and AZ.

Forecast EV for OBAMA = 364.
Forecast EV for MCCAIN = 174..

____________________

hou04:

I just saw a posting from a right-winger on Nate's site saying that McCain is leading by 3 in NM... but the guy was also lying about the CNN Virgina poll, saying Obama lead only by 2

____________________

zotz:

BOOM!
Homes are not the only way to identify a person. McCain owns seven. Does that mean he gets to vote seven times? Voting is a constitutional right EVEN IF YOU ARE HOMELESS!

____________________

NW Patrick:

2 new national polls out from Harris and Ipsos. Both O +6. That's a LANDSLIDE come election day folks.

____________________

carl29:

Guys, don't worry. Every time you hear about internals, raise your eyebrows because somebody is nervious about his/her campaign :-)

____________________

straight talk:

Hear is why I think the national poll are not trending accurately, and The Ap national poll confirmed my theory!

This poll said O was up 1% nationaly, but they turn around and release state poll numbers that show O expanding his electoral lead!

I need someone to explain why this occurred? Obama is sitting even better than Bill clinton was in 96, but the only difference is, is the national polls showed Clinton up +14, but Obama up 6% give are take!

Why is that?

____________________

carl29:

straight talk,

That old AP poll didn't pass the "smell test" with me to begin with. I am not surprise that today's state polls contradict the AP previous national poll. It was wrong all along.

____________________

straight talk:

Georgia is the back breaker! I think Obama is going to carry that state! And North Carolina!

OBama always outperforms his numbers in Southern States.

* McCain supporters please have your candidate to open up at least 1 office in Georgia!

____________________

ctj:

ABC News/WP just out

52-44

____________________

Mark Blumenthal:

@boomshak - you wrote:

"the American Public doesn't want a Jew-hating Sociialist running the economy."

Would you care to take a moment to explain to me and everyone else how this comment qualifies as remotely civil and intelligent? And why I should not consider it an obvious violation of the comments policy of this blog and grounds for banning?

I'm listening. Go ahead.

And keep in mind that I am in no mood right now to see anyone wave a false flag of antisemitism, and if you don't understand why, perhaps someone who actually reads this blog can explain it to you.


@NWPatrick, bmrKY & mysticlaker:

Same question to you about your posts above. Does the admonition against profanity mean anything to you? I got an email today from a teacher who cannot allow her students to view this site because some of you cannot control yourselves. Do I need to shut off the comments altogether or can any of you act like adults?

@Mystic: I deleted your comment above. I see one more like it and you're banned.

____________________



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