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Mason-Dixon: FL, VA (10/20-21)

Topics: PHome

Mason-Dixon
10/20-21/08; LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Florida
McCain 46, Obama 45

Virginia
Obama 47, McCain 45

 

Comments
maddiekat:

Good sign for Obama. This Pollster has consistanly shown Obama with smaller leads in many states compared to other polls.

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Jimbo77:

Obama definately has the upper hand in swing states but..... they seem to be tightening.

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Northeastern Republican:

If the virginia number here is accurate, obama is in trouble. He can't have much confidence going into election day with enough states being yellow to get mccain to 270. if colorado and virginia were to become toss ups again before the election.. and all other toss ups stayed teh same... mccain would be back in the game. granted it would be an uphill game but a game nonetheless.

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Northeastern Republican:

jimbo - im not sure he has the upperhand any longer in all swing states. if you take a look at some of the most recent florida and ohio polls they mostly show it either being dead even or with a slight mccain advantage (all within the margin of error except that one poll last week showing obama up by 9)

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Jimbo77:

Indiana
Nevada
Ohio
Florida
North Carolina

All are very close. Mccain needs all of these and to pick off some of the states that Obama has a 5-10 point lead.

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Jimbo77:

Seems more clear that on election night that we will know the outcome early. If Obama wins vigina then Mccain would need an upset in PA. If as all the mental midget Dems are predicting that Obama wins both then it will be a long night for us republicans.

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Northeastern Republican:

Agree Jimbo that VA & PA will hold the key. Of course if it is close in either state then we might not know until a bit later in the evening

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PortlandRocks:

Northeastern Republican this is a HUGE IMPROVEMENT per this pollster for Obama. How is he in TROUBLE. Don't compare apples to oranges. Obama made gains in THIS poll.

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terrapinwill:

These numbers are almost certainly not correct. there have been a dozen polls in the last 7-10 days, all of which have Obama above 50%. When VA closes and is called for Obama, the night will be over.

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politicalmomma2:

I have two questions for anyone who might follow closely these polls: What are the party weights in these polls? What were the last Mason-Dixon statistics in these states?
Thanks to anyone who can help!

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Borman:

The sample in VA is skewed - Men/Women: 50/50.

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Northeastern Republican:

Portland - Im not comparing apples to oranges. Nor did I ever say he was in huge trouble. All I said was that if the virginia number is accurate i think he will be in trouble. It will be difficult for him to go into election night confident that virginia is a lock.

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Pazienza:

Here is what we found from all of the final polling conducted in the 2004 battleground states at the Presidential level (Click Here to View the Full Tabulated Results):

1) Mason-Dixon
Failed to Project Winner: 6.2% | Average Error = 1.9

A final Minnesota poll showing a one-point Bush win is the only blemish on Mason-Dixon's otherwise perfect scorecard this year. Not only did Brad Coker project the correct winner in 15 out of the 16 battleground states we looked at, he did so with amazing accuracy. Three states were dead on the final number and the overall difference between Mason-Dixon's final polls and the actual election results was a minuscule 1.8 points. Furthermore, if you look down through the list of Mason-Dixon's projections it's impossible to detect any consistent leanings toward one candidate or another.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/blog_11_8_04_1018.html


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TJIRISH34:

I will not disagree about poll merits. What I will say is some of these polls are all over place. Just from perspective of election race. Yes I am bias Obama. I have not seen anything to indicate McCain will turn election towards him winning. The polls may be tightening etc... But people are voting RIGHT NOW. I am voting tomorrow. From early voting great enthusiasm for Obama. I am really interested to see the final election results. I believe and we shall find out soon. The pollsters have not done a good job of polling new registered voters. The majority will vote for Obama. I will say whatever the polls show day of November 4th. Obama will do better in the electoral then polls show. We shall find out if I am correct. BTW this race issue where people might not vote for Obama cause he is black. I believe that factor is already factored in the polling results.

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McCain and Palin have NO plan for the economy and NO plan to end this war in Iraq. McCain and Palin and the Republicans are the "mental midgets." What the hell is a Republican anyway? You Republicans have no issues to run on except empty rhetoric and fear mongering. A Republican is a Republican. I don't want 8 more years of the same old policies. I don't trust McCain and Palin. Get to the polls and vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden!

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

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