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Mason-Dixon/NBC: OH, WI, WV (10/16-17)

Topics: PHome

Mason-Dixon/NBC
10/16-17/08, all states: n=625 likely voters, margin of error +/- 4
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
First Read summary

Ohio
McCain 46, Obama 45

West Virginia
McCain 47, Obama 41

Wisconsin
Obama 51, McCain 39

 

Comments
C.S.Strowbridge:

I think this confirms the 8% Obama lead in West Virginia was just an outlier.

Ohio could be too close to call, but it likely won't matter.

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deeznutsrepubs:

Isn't MD a righ-leaning pollster? WV will be closer than 8.....but likely still a mccrap/bimbo state......too many "low-info" appalachia voters.

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DTM:

Mason Dixon has had a fairly consistent house effect in McCain's favor. Of course that doesn't mean their polls are necessarily wrong--only the election itself will sort that out.

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bill kapra:

Gallup 52-42 RV, 51-44 LVII 49-46 LVI

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Inkan1969:

Weird. The Rep leaning Mason-Dixon has McCain's WV lead at six points, while the Dem leaning PPP has McCain's lead at eight points. Either way, WV is not a must win for Obama. I'd settle for a McCain win of less than 10%.

Ohio is very iffy. But still winnable for Obama. Hopefully the outrage of the Republican lawsuit will inspire Obama voters to come out in huge numbers. The people have now seen that the Republicans will take every opportunity to steal your right to vote away. I bet then that the people will come out in huge numbers to back Obama and reject this Republican atrocity.

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cambridge blue:

Obama doesn't need Ohio. If he takes Colorado or Virginia, it's game over.

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BarackO'Clinton:

BarackO'Clinton:

Join my campaign to boycott RealClearPolitics.com
My exchange with RCP's Tom Bevan:

Me:
"Hannity and Colmes?
You are now a right wing website and no one can
dispute it. It's been fun. I logged many visits to RCP when it portrayed itself as a moderate website but I won't be back."

Tom's response makes no effort to dispute RCP’s right-wing slant:

“ So anyone who appears on hannity and colmes is right wing? Please. You can decide for yourself whether my analysis is accurate or not, but the idea that appearing on that show somehow taints rcp is beyond juvenile.
I assume you sent an email to mike brown (who appeared with me) saying that you'll never listen to his radio show again. If that's how you operate, GOOD RIDDANCE. Tb”

My reply:

“Thank you for your response. It will soon be posted on
several mainstream blogs.

It's not the appearances on Fox News that have tainted
RCP, it's the overwhelming right-leaning analysis.

If I sound juvenile it's only because RCP used to be
my favorite website for politics, specifically since
it used to do a great job of remaining objective. I am
disappointed to see that is no longer the case.

I'm not alone in seeing how you have shifted
remarkably to the right this season - read the blogs
and you'll see how many people have filed RCP under
"another right-wing outlet."

The evidence is overwhelming. The way the site picks
and chooses the polls it decides to include is just
one example.

There is nothing wrong with being a right-wing site as
long as you come right out and say it. Huffington
Post has no qualms about being Leftist anymore than
Hugh Hewitt's blog is proud to be Right.

If you're trying to be a moderate site then be a
moderate site like you once were. But if you're going
to pick sides (as you have clearly chosen to do) why
not just come out an proudly endorse McCain? What are
you afraid of?

"Good riddance" you say? Perhaps my fellow bloggers
and me should start a campaign to boycott RCP
completely. There are plenty of Lefties who still
visit your site, even with its well-documented bias.
And I'm sure if traffic deceased on RCP, your answer
would be "good riddance," right?

Have a nice day. I wish you and your website the best
of luck.”

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DTM:

Just an idle thought, but while Obama does not need Ohio to win, it sure would go a long way toward giving Obama a "mandate" as opposed to just a victory.

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Inkan1969:

@cambridge blue:

It's best to keep all channels open. Keep it up in CO, VA, and OH to cover your bets. Further, it's very important that the Obama campaign exudes a strong "We can win Ohio" tone. An attitude that OH is not that important is what the vote suppressors want, so that they can get away with stealing your right to vote away. Even if Ohio is not a must-win, this Republican crime against human rights must be met with loud righteous outrage.

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Atomique:

All right, Wisconsin is now dark blue! Go Wisconsin!

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PJ_FFM:

I think I've mentioned it here already, a few days ago: No Republican ever became President without winning Ohio, although some Democrats did (e.g., Jack Kennedy in 1960, FDR in 1944, Grover Cleveland in both 1884 and 1892 - nice irony of history there, given that Cleveland is also the name of Ohio's second biggest city... - James Buchanan in 1856). Given this, Ohio would quite probably be the final steppingstone to an Obama landslide.

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Potomac Bob:

Obama doesn't necessarily need Ohio (nor does McCain) to have a "mandate." The theory goes that unless you get an overwhelming number of the popular vote or the electoral vote, you should be timid in the presidency because you lack a mandate. But George W. Bush disproved that theory. He acted as if he had a mandate (even if it came with fewer popular votes than his opponent), and nobody dared speak against him. He got everything he wanted from a compliant Congress. George W. Bush proved that all you need to have a "mandate" is 270 electoral votes - you win 100 percent of the presidency.

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RossPhx:

When carrying West Virginia is the last best hope for McCain supporters, it's a good day for the Obama campaign.

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burrito:

@Inkan1969

I agree with you. Every vote is important, every state is important. It is crucial that everyone's attitude is that regardless of how "Red" your state is, you must try to win it ... and maybe you will!! There are 2 weeks left before Nov. 4th and we must try all that we can do to win this election!! The Republicans have not been shy about trying to suppress voter turnout ... they know that the fewer voters, the better their chances ... that is why you see now so many "trolls" trying to discourage you by falsely stating that this race "is really close and that Obama will lose" or "the race is tightening and Obama will not make it" ... it is critical that the enthusiasm of the Obama supporters is kept at a highest level and that everyone votes ... do not become complacent ... do not give up ... and if we all do that, on Nov. 4th we will make history!!

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DTM:

@Potomac Bob

I agree Bush acted like he had a mandate. The thing is, I think history will record that Bush achieved very little of his domestic agenda (he obviously got more of his way with respect to foreign policy, but that is in part because of 9/11, and in part because he can do more in foreign policy without the aid of Congress). And the few things he did accomplish domestically were usually with Democratic support (e.g., NCLB).

So, I kinda doubt Obama would want to follow that same path.

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Gary Kilbride:

Gad, kudos to this site. I'm glad I came over here last night and saw the PPP poll with McCain leading in West Virginia 50-42. I scampered to Intrade and played McCain in that state at a couple of numbers slightly above 60.

Now Intrade has exploded in McCain's favor, above 80, based on that poll and now this Mason-Dixon indication.

Does anyone realize the difference between 62 and 81 on Intrade? Massive. That's like -163 in money line terms jumping to -426. If you want a football equivalency, those are the money lines associated with a 3.5 point favorite and an 11 point favorite.

So essentially I bought an 11 point favorite at -3.5 odds, solely due to timing.

That previous stupid poll giving Obama an 8 point edge in West Virginia was responsible for silly movement in the Intrade odds. I'm surprised it was so dramatic. But that's what happens when variables mesh, in this case an extremely low number of polls in West Virginia and overly enthusiastic Obama bettors insisting on forcing his opportunity in unlikely states.

I've always respected Mason-Dixon. I'm surprised it is dismissed here as right leaning. More often than not I rely on their state polls compared to other companies. They were particularly good in the right leaning cycles like 2002. I don't know how that makes them right leaning, accurately predicting outcomes while other pollsters were too friendly to the Democrat.

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TJIRISH34:

Hey ya know what I would love to see Obama win Ohio. BUT screw Ohio. Buncha dumba__'s. That state has been hurting for years... Put it this way did ya see joe the plumber? Okay? That's what Obama is dealing with in Ohio. As a buddy of mine commented. "That guy doesn't have any money." BTW I am considered a blue collar worker. But Joe the plumber is concerned about people making over $250,000 a year because someday he might be in that bracket. Nothing wrong with dreaming but I make more money then what Joe makes and I know I will never ever make what joe is dreaming of making. The reason Obama is doing well in Virginia and North carolina is because anyone with a brain moved out of Ohio years ago to Virginia and North Carolina. I am in Indiana and I am proud of where my state is in this election. ohio more than any state is the one ate up about obama's race. That speaks volumes about the voters in Ohio.

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CTPonix4BHObama:

I'm a young Obama supporter and although we do see right leaning polls there's no objective reason i can dismiss these numbers. WI great, OH realistic, WV is a constant taunt to McCain.

I have noticed that MasonDixon does have somewhat of a uptick for McCain support but I dont see much of a reason to dispute the general movement this poll shows.

If anything this is nothing but a reminder to Obama supporters that they need to get out there and work for the spoils of this hard fought contest. A majority of people havent even voted yet and we all got a nice high from the recent polls but go put the rubber to the road for the dems.

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cinnamonape:

"Grover Cleveland in both 1884 and 1892 - nice irony of history there, given that Cleveland is also the name of Ohio's second biggest city..."

Cleveland was the one that tried to re-introduce the "progressive income tax" during the "gilded age" but was shot down by the Supreme Court. I suspect you have left out two Republicans, one a native son, Robert Harding Taft...who actually brought the "progressive income tax" back in with the 16th Amendment. And his successor, Theodore Roosevelt...who advocated the progressive tax rates that McCain and the Reopublicans are now calling "socialism".

Funny Teddy stated in his famous "A New Nationalism" speech that he was being decried as a Communist for simply stating the principles of Lincoln. I guess some things never change!

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cinnamonape:

If Mason-Dixon...an R-leaning pollster...is saying it's a dead heat in Ohio...Obama needs to continue to put pressure on there. McCain seems to be neglecting it in terms of campaigning, as well as Indiana. Those are states where Biden and the Clintons can help...and a visit to a big campus could bring out crowds like those in St. Louis in the final days!

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shirefox:

@Potomac Bob

But without 9/11 Bush would have been a one-term disaster rather than a two-term disaster.

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Trosen:

Obama down only one in a M/D poll is hardly time to "surrender" it to McCain. We are very much in ecxellent position there. Solid turnout and we can definitely turn it blue.

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JFactor:

West Virginia will absolutely be the hardest state for Obama to win (among the battleground states). If he wins there he wins by a landslide. It isn't all just talk that it's a very conservative state on social issues. Ohio is no doubt close and the recent small movement for McCain could have well put that state into a pure toss-up again. Wisconsin has been in the bag for weeks.
____________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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RossPhx:

Minnesota poll released today by the Tribune shows Obama ahead there by 'only' 52%-41% among likely voters -- down from an 18-point lead a couple weeks ago.

Nothing on Senate race published yet.

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K Johnson:

McCain needs to focus now on limiting GOP losses in both houses of Congress. At this point, he will loose this election no matter how you see it.
At least the Senate should not fall completely to the Democratic Party. Let say 58 to 42 would be the acceptable number from my humble calculation.

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CTPonix4BHObama:

I'm pretty confident the Dems will get enough of a majority that they can even kick Lieberman out of caucus. Being from CT it would be a dream come true after the way he begged Obama to campaign for him during his senate race here and then did a 180 on Obama.

I'm hoping the obama Electoral College strategy is that he contests enough states that are battlegrounds and even more that are safe blue to keep an EV cushion forcing McCain to thin his spending in the states he absolutely needs in order to keep his numbers up in states he is not yet losing or next to losing.

We have the money to do it, thats for sure.

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