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Massachusetts Reaction Roundup

Topics: 2010 , Celinda Lake , Mark Mellman , Martha Coakley , Massachusetts , Neil Newhouse , Scott Brown

A round-up of Pollster-centric reactions to the Massachusetts results:

This Boston Herald lead speaks volumes: "High turnout in Bay State 'burbs and among independent voters who flocked to the polls eclipsed a healthy turnout in staunchly Democratic Boston, fueling Republican Scott Brown's victory yesterday."

Brown pollster Neil Newhouse stays up late to offer his take on the message sent by Massachusetts voters, Brown's 12 keys to victory and a memo to Democratic leaders.

Coakley pollster Celinda Lake gives an interview to Ryan Grim defending their campaign.

The Note produces a December Coakley campaign polling memo.

Mark Mellman argues (pre-results) that early January automated (IVR) polls were a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The Republican National Committee releases a pre-election survey (via Memoli).

Rasmussen Reports conducts an election night survey.

PPP's Tom Jensen offers takeaways from Massachusetts.

Nate Silver allocates blame.

Washington Post pollster Jon Cohen reminds us of what we gets lost in the absence of exit polling and a proliferation of horse-race only polls.

Former AP polling director Mike Mokrzycki reviews what exit polls could have told us.

John Zogby predicts a Coakley win, then walks it back.

Political scientist Josh Tucker graphs the actual effect of the Massachusetts election, but Brenden Nyhan offers a different interpretation.

PS: Don't forget Charles Franklin's post below ("How Massachusetts Votes Shifted").

Late add:  Research Rants adds some helpful perspective from a distance.

 

Comments
poughies:

Zogby found the only thing more inaccurate than his interactive polls... His own predictions.

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Mark W:

Mark, Politico is reporting that McLaughlin & Associates conducted an exit poll of the race yesterday. Any thoughts about the accuracy/track record of the firm? Seen any cross tabs floating around for it?


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31708.html

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Mark Blumenthal:

@Mark W:

Thanks for the link. We'll include it in our 'outliers' post tonight.

I haven't had a chance to read it yet, but one thing to be clear on: The Politico headline is misleading. It is NOT an "exit poll" per se, but (like the Rasmussen survey) a telephone poll conducted last night among respondents who said they voted. I can't speak to their accuracy, but McLaughlin polls for Republican candidates and you ought to take that into account.

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Mark W:

Thanks for the clarification Mark, that's kind of what I thought. I think you're being very generous though when you say "misleading," rather than "completely wrong."

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