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MD: 2010 Gov (Magellan 6/29)

Topics: Maryland , poll

Magellan (R)
6/29/10; 752 likely voters, 3.6% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Magellan release)

Maryland

2010 Governor
46% Ehrlich (R), 43% O'Malley (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Bob Ehrlich: 51 / 32
Martin O'Malley: 41 / 45

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 48 / 43

 

Comments
iVote:

Well, Magellan (R) just proved their incompetence at polling. Obama w/ the same approval in Maryland as Rasmussen has him in Ohio? I don't think so, Magellan. Not even close.

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billwy:

iVote:
These numbers for Obama seem a bit off to me as well. But if you don't live in Md. (obviously I don't know where you live) you would be tempted to think that Md. is a very liberal state. That is not true. It's a heavily democratic state. For instance, our Senate President Mike Miller a few years ago opposed the moratorium on the death penalty by saying "if anything we need more executions."
I go to church in a part of Baltimore which should be heavily democratic and there are signs all over the place for Ehrlich. Signs are signs, don't read too much into them. But it would not surprise me if Ehrlich is leading this race.
Besides, you also would have to know, Ehrlich has been getting positive press in the lead up to his announcement of LT. Gov. candidate, which was yesterday.

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billwy:

iVote:
These numbers for Obama seem a bit off to me as well. But if you don't live in Md. (obviously I don't know where you live) you would be tempted to think that Md. is a very liberal state. That is not true. It's a heavily democratic state. For instance, our Senate President Mike Miller a few years ago opposed the moratorium on the death penalty by saying "if anything we need more executions."
I go to church in a part of Baltimore which should be heavily democratic and there are signs all over the place for Ehrlich. Signs are signs, don't read too much into them. But it would not surprise me if Ehrlich is leading this race.
Besides, you also would have to know, Ehrlich has been getting positive press in the lead up to his announcement of LT. Gov. candidate, which was yesterday.

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billwy:

iVote:
These numbers for Obama seem a bit off to me as well. But if you don't live in Md. (obviously I don't know where you live) you would be tempted to think that Md. is a very liberal state. That is not true. It's a heavily democratic state. For instance, our Senate President Mike Miller a few years ago opposed the moratorium on the death penalty by saying "if anything we need more executions."
I go to church in a part of Baltimore which should be heavily democratic and there are signs all over the place for Ehrlich. Signs are signs, don't read too much into them. But it would not surprise me if Ehrlich is leading this race.
Besides, you also would have to know, Ehrlich has been getting positive press in the lead up to his announcement of LT. Gov. candidate, which was yesterday.

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jmartin4s:

I'm curious as to why Magellan isn't in Nate Silver's pollster ratings.

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Magellan appears to be a Republican house organ. I have never seen any poll of theirs for any race in any state in which the Democrat is ahead of the Republican.

O'Malley beat an incumbent Gov. Ehrlich handily (>6%) in 2006, largely because Ehrlich was despised in the state. Now someone is telling me that he has a +19% approval rate? You've got to be kidding.

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Louis:

national Aprroval/Disapproval poll of polls Obama Approval 45.9% Disapproval 45.4%. methodolgy explained previously. In a nut shell take Pollster.coms polls eliminate Internet, party polls and Rasmussen(because of different methodlgy results between Rasmussen and other polls are not strictly comparable.). Set dater range to 30 days. Voila.

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Louis:

national Aprroval/Disapproval poll of polls Obama Approval 45.9% Disapproval 45.4%. methodolgy explained previously. In a nut shell take Pollster.coms polls eliminate Internet, party polls and Rasmussen(because of different methodlgy results between Rasmussen and other polls are not strictly comparable.). Set date range to 30 days. Voila.

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Sean Murphy:

The horse race results of this poll seem in line with others that have showed a tight race with it either being tied or with Ehrlich having a slight lead.

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billwy:

@Nelcon:
Despied in the state is a bit strong. Losing by 6 in a state where Dems outnumber Rep. by over 2-1 is nothing to hang your head over.

What your analysis is leaving out is how dreadful a year that was to be a republican. Also, there was one salient issue...energy prices. O'malley attacked him repeatedly and effectively on the soaring energy prices. What was left out of the discussion was that Ehrlich's predecessor, Gov. Glendening, had set the caps on energy prices to expire in 2003. In other words, Md. had been getting below market prices for years on their energy, and then in the blink of an eye our bills nearly doubled. You can argue that Ehrlich should have extended the cap...but anyone who remembers the gas shortage under Carter knows price-capping isn't all it's cracked up to be...

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iVote:

billwy-

As a matter of fact, I lived in Maryland for about a decade. It has its rural, conservative areas for sure, but when it comes down to it MD is a strong blue state.

The point is that this poll is the only one that shows Ehrlich with a lead. The Wash Post poll last month had O'Malley w/ a 7 pt lead among registered voters and tied w/ likely voters, the Rass poll had them tied, and even the internal poll from Murphy had O'Malley leading by a point. This will be a close race no doubt, but I believe that O'Malley has the edge.

Plus, the Rasmussen poll had O'Malley's favorability numbers at 53/43 and his approval rating at 56/43. Compare those numbers with the ones here, and you can see that this Magellan poll is off base.

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Gopherguy:

I wonder how Maryland feels about propping up Michael Steele's career. That man is a raging idiot. What is going on at the RNC? What the hell is the Republican party doing? Only a moron and shameless partisan could say that Afghanistan is Obama's war of choice.

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Gopherguy:

P.S. Michael Steele and I do agree that this war cannot be won and that we need to leave ASAP.

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jmartin4s:

Ok now looking at the internal this poll seems like bogus. O'Malley has a four point lead among Indies but trails overall by 3???? This is Maryland we are talking about not Arizona. This poll must have one of the most screwed up LV screens possible.

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DB:

Yea, this poll seems goofy to me, too. Is there ANYONE who does accurate polling?!? (ha!) I live in MD and the local news hasn't been covering this race at all yet. I heard a 5 second blip the other day about who Ehrlich chose as his running mate (I honestly don't even remember who she is!), but that's it. Since it's not in the news right now, the race is probably essentially tied because no one is paying attention. So I think there might be some truth to the overall race between O'Malley and Ehrlich, but not necessarily these numbers.

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