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MD: 55% Mikulski, 39% Wargotz (Rasmussen 8/27)

Topics: Maryland , poll

Rasmussen
8/17/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Maryland

2010 Senate
55% Mikulski, 39% Wargotz (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barbara Mikulski: 58 / 38
Eric Wargotz: 46 / 23

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 56 / 45
Gov. O'Malley: 54 / 45

 

Comments
billwy:

This is surprisingly close. Don't imagine this guy has a chance of winning. But he was down close to 25 points in the last Rasmussen poll. That's progress.

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Farleftandproud:

Yeah right. Maryland at least has some brains in the electorate; they aren't going to vote on who is better looking. Of course Barbara Mikulski isn't the best looking woman in the world, but she has been a crusader for social justice, freedom and human rights.

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DB:

I live in MD and it's incredibly unlikely that the Republicans can pick up this one. Mikulski has the upper hand here and I think is going to win whether it's this guy or Rutledge getting the Republican nomination for Senate.

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billwy:

Pretty much a center-left state...and a little closer to the left than the center. But it's just surprising that it's a 16 point race. I don't remember by how much she beat E.J. Pipkin in 2004. But I believe it was pushing 30 points.

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DB:

I live in MD. The Republicans really don't have a chance to pick this seat up - whether it's this guy or Rutledge (the other Republican running for nomination).

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Pam:

Wargotz will take it. You will see. He is the perfect candidate for these times in Maryland. Yes, there are 11 in the R primary but none can compete statewide with Dr. Wargotz. Wargotz will unseat Mikulski, I am certain of it.

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Pam:

Wargotz will take it. You will see. He is the perfect candidate for these times in Maryland. Yes, there are 11 in the R primary but none can compete statewide with Dr. Wargotz. Wargotz will unseat Mikulski, I am certain of it. www.wargotz.com

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Pam:

Wargotz will take it. You will see. He is the perfect candidate for these times in Maryland. Yes, there are 11 in the R primary but none can compete statewide with Dr. Wargotz. Wargotz will unseat Mikulski, I am certain of it. www.wargotz.com

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Pam:

sorry for the repeats. I'm still getting the hang of this! :(

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Dave:

Uh oh libs. http://www.king5.com/news/politiking/First-general-election-poll-puts-Rossi-ahead-confirms-competitive-race-101199184.html

Rossi out ahead of Murray, despite his record of getting "slaughtered" in elections.

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StatyPolly:

Yeah, nice poll from SUSA..

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8bead0ce-327f-4867-a642-612add78c02f

Of course they had Rossi up by ten back in Apr. An outlier.

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StatyPolly:

Moving on to happier news...

Dems admit they effed up on HCR. I wonder where the support will poll once the public knows that it will NOT save money. At neither the individual level, nor the public.

"WE'LL FIX IT IF YOU DON'T FIRE US" message should resonate. not

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/41271.html

Make sure to click thru the links(in my next post) and the comments. Those are fun.

http://dyn.politico.com/members/forums/thread.cfm?catid=1&subcatid=54&threadid=4404250

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StatyPolly:

Here is one fun link:

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM153_pp.html

Hit the "Enter" key to toggle thru, and enjoy this presentation.

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Farleftandproud:

Murray will win the General in Washington, because women show up to the polls moreso than men do.

I am a straight white male, and probably only 38 percent of us Nationwide will cast a vote for a Democrat, but Murray has also appealed to older voters and veterans. She gets enough of that tough older, conservative voting bloc that I think she'll hang on.

If Rasmussen has her up by 4, I think this King poll is nonsense too. Seattle is a fairly progressive area, and the rural vote won't be enough to counteract that.

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Farleftandproud:

Mikulski will remain in the Senate. Maryland is a state that knows Washington DC and understands the City. Besides, when your best known Republican from your state is a sidekick like Michael Steele, it isn't going to help.

I think Erlich could win, but doubt an unknown candidate would beat Mikulski.

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Farleftandproud:

Yes, the Blue dogs did F up the health care plan and Obama's bill was great rhetoric but has not convinced me it will truly cover 30 million more people.

I think Stupak and Casey and the pro life progressives were my heroes in fighting for the Public option. I think the ones who chickened out like Blanche Lincoln, Evan Bayh and Numerous congressmen from Red states put politics before progress. On the national level the Public option had huge popularity, but the Mass. health care mandate on the National level did not. Trust me, people prefer Vermont's affordable non-profit HCR Co-ops to the Mass insurance mandate.

I wish the GOP had actually been more human and focused on saving money rather than wasting money. Buying out of state was a good idea, but one they didn't explain very well. Some places in the US have Co-ops and one if them is a conservative Christian health care group in SC. It saves money and insures people at an affordable cost. Of course these groups are rare, but I think the GOP's selfishness has dominated them.

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Farleftandproud:

Survey USA is worse than Rasmussen because they can't be upfront with the fact they are biased. I mean Rasmussen probably doesn't even poll African Americans which is one thing, but Survey USA had Carly Fiorina getting 27 percent of the black vote.

I don't even think Charlie Crist is getting that in the polls and Arlen Specter never got that; there is no way someone as conservative as fiorina could get that either.

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MikeyA:

Proof that the libs have lost it: We are no longer Ras bashing on this site we're SUSA bashing. They've even bashed PPP, a Dem pollster, for not posting positive results.

This November is going to be bad for them. BAD! With every day we get closer to the election I see the chances of 70 House seats and control of the Senate slowly increase.

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StatyPolly:

Yeah, the Senate is looking doable all of a sudden.

I thought GOP chances of takeover were all but dead just a couple of weeks ago. At the time, it looked like GOP would have had to run the table and win each and every tossup in blue states, like CA, IL, WI, WA. Tough order. Then, even sure things like NV weren't so sure anymore.

But all of sudden, other avenues to 51 seem to open up.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map.html

GOP has 44 in the safe/likely/lean column. I think those are very safe. There is maybe a tiny chance that they lose one (KY, PA, MO?) but highly unlikely at this point.

Listed tossups are CA, CO, FL, IL, NV, OH, WA, WI. CT is a lean DEM, but I think it moves to tossup too. I think CO and OH are pretty much done deal pickups for GOP. That makes it 46. Leaves 7 as tossups. Getting 5 of those 7 is not a cakewalk, oddswise, but how about 3 of those 7? Doable. Maybe IL, NV, WI? Or other combinations. 3 of those 7 gets GOP to 49. Now what?

Crist pretty much signaled (as if he needed to) that he is available to the highest bidder. So FL seat should stay GOP either way. Don't think either Meek or Greene stand a chance.

It's all about Nelson. He is up in 2012, and his chances as a Dem are none. Should he defect to GOP, his chances become dismal. Which is a lot better than none. And if he ain't a complete ho, who is?

Then, there are the Lieberman rumors. I can picture those three (Crist, Nelson, Lieberman) make a pact and cross the aisle, holding hands like three musketeers. Three stooges? Three little pigs? Running out of ideas here.

Of course, pact making is the key here, since it takes at least two additions for them to end up in the majority party. So Nelson personal need sets the wheels in motion and drags in another straggler or two. Any other Dems in need of a party switch out there?

So even without defectors, should GOP run the tossups table, with CT thrown in, they get to 53. With Nelson and Lieberman - 55.

The simple majority of 51 not so impossible after all.

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nick283:

Whether Rossi ends up winning or not, Jaime Herrera will win the 3rd district. Another Hispanic Republican congresswoman. Man thats gotta annoy people like melvin and FLAP.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Then, there are the Lieberman rumors. I can picture those three (Crist, Nelson, Lieberman) make a pact and cross the aisle, holding hands like three musketeers."

I don't put any kind of self-aggrandizement past Lieberman. One thing I hate about so-called moderates is their media whorishness.

Not that those three guys would be republicans you would particularly like. They would do their best to piss off both sides.

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Juan Chin:

Let's be clear - Mikulski isn't going anywhere. These sort of numbers by Rascrap reminds me of their garbage showing Senator Gillibrand only 9 points ahead of any possible GOP candidates while the other non biased polls show her up by 15-20. Mikulski was elected in 1986 with 61%, reelected in 1992 & 1998 with 71%. Biased polling firms (SurveyUSA is notorious) show close races in MD because they never take into account the huge voting block of African American voters in the state like in Prince Georges County. I recall polls in 2004 showing Bush and Kerry tied in MD which proved false as Kerry handidly carried the state. Also, in 2006, Mike Steele was leading according to SurveyUSA based on their "turnout model" showing that African Americans were not interested in voting for Cardin which in the end Cardin won the race by 10 (54-44) because of the black vote. Democrats are going to lose seats - in fact, they are going to get hammered, but not in Maryland which IS ONE OF THE MOST DEMOCRATIC state in the USA no matter how the GOP tries to play this. The NRSC will not put any money here and Wargotz or whatever his name is will not be able to raise the money. Mikulski would win by 16 even if she closed up her campaign HQs and took a vacation for the rest of the year!

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Juan Chin:

Let's be clear - Mikulski isn't going anywhere. These sort of numbers by Rascrap reminds me of their garbage showing Senator Gillibrand only 9 points ahead of any possible GOP candidates while the other non biased polls show her up by 15-20. Mikulski was elected in 1986 with 61%, reelected in 1992 & 1998 with 71%. Biased polling firms (SurveyUSA is notorious) show close races in MD because they never take into account the huge voting block of African American voters in the state like in Prince Georges County. I recall polls in 2004 showing Bush and Kerry tied in MD which proved false as Kerry handidly carried the state. Also, in 2006, Mike Steele was leading according to SurveyUSA based on their "turnout model" showing that African Americans were not interested in voting for Cardin which in the end Cardin won the race by 10 (54-44) because of the black vote. Democrats are going to lose seats - in fact, they are going to get hammered, but not in Maryland which IS ONE OF THE MOST DEMOCRATIC state in the USA no matter how the GOP tries to play this. The NRSC will not put any money here and Wargotz or whatever his name is will not be able to raise the money. Mikulski would win by 16 even if she closed up her campaign HQs and took a vacation for the rest of the year!

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