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ME: Marriage (Pan Atlantic 10/20-22)


Pan Atlantic SMS
10/20-22/09; 400 likely voters, 4.9% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Pan Atlantic SMS release)

Maine

Question 1 - "Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows
individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?" If today was Election
Day, how would you vote on this issue?

42% Yes, 53% No (trend)

 

Comments
sjt22:

400 adults? I know Maine is a small state, but that doesn't mean you can shrink the sample size.

____________________

Jacob:

A bigger problem with the poll is that it is an "Adult" sample one week out from an election. Most firms use likely at this point. And because old people are more likely to vote and less supportive of gay rights, it looks like this one will be close and depend on turnout.

____________________

Emily Swanson:

Jacob: it actually appears I overlooked their more extended description of their sample, which is as follows:

A randomly selected, stratified statewide sample of 400 Maine adults was interviewed. Since the poll contains questions relating to referendum and bond issues which will be voted on in the November 2009 elections, the survey was administered only to people who are registered voters and who identified themselves as “likely” to vote in the November 2009 elections. All others were excluded from participation.

I have corrected this post accordingly.

____________________

Jacob:

Thanks Emily. That makes the results more digestible.

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