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MI: 2010 Gov (PPP 5/25-27)

Topics: Michigan , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
5/25-27/10; 890 likely voters, 3.3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Michigan

2010 Governor
39% Bouchard (R), 34% Bernero (D)
38% Bouchard (R), 29% Dillon (D)
38% Cox (R), 36% Bernero (D)
40% Cox (R), 32% Dillon (D)
31% Bernero (D), 30% George (R)
32% George (R), 31% Dillon (D)
41% Hoekstra (R), 34% Bernero (D)
41% Hoekstra (R), 32% Dillon (D)
44% Snyder (R), 28% Bernerno (D)
46% Snyder (R), 26% Dillon (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Mike Bouchard: 18 / 19
Virg Bernero: 11 / 12
Mike Cox: 25 / 38
Andy Dillon: 9 / 20
Tom George: 4 / 9
Pete Hoekstra: 27 / 23
Rick SnydeR: 25 / 13

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Granholm: 29 / 61

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

This poll will change. The GOP was further ahead 4 months ago. Just because Granholm has a low approval doesn't mean a Republican has all the answers to Michigan's problems. I think any governor in Michigan at the moment with all their problems would not be popular at the moment.

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twitter.com/strobe3:

PPP came out with a poll showing Artur Davis up by 10% less than a week before primary (and he lost), so I don't believe any of this stuff.

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melvin:

Rumours are flying that Obama is going to get a challenge from the left in 2012.

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melvin:

Rumours are flying that Obama is going to get a challenge from the left in 2012.

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hoosier_gary:

Granholm has brought her approval up to 29%? Must be all Detroit. I haven't heard a Michigander down here speak her name without spitting for years now.

The only chance a democrat has is if they get an absolutely huge turnout in Detroit. That isn't going to happen in an off-year election.

Both democrats are starting out with their approvals under water.

Granholm is so immensely unpopular that not only will the democrats lose the governorship this year, they will probably lose the state house as well. They already lost the senate.

The only other chance a democrat will have this year is to run against Obama like the democrat in PA-12 did. He will have to convince voters that he will reverse everything Granholm ever did and resist everything Obama wants to do. A democrat is going to have to be more conservative than the republicans to win here this year.

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jamesia:

I'd wager Obama encourages a leftist challenger. Makes his moderate views more obviously centrist.

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hoosier_gary:

@jamesia:

How do you get someone to the left of Obama? How far left are you if you think Obama is a centrist? Center of what? The socialist party?

I guarantee you won't see Obama here in Michigan campaigning for the democrat. It would doom the democrat.

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twitter.com/strobe3:

@Gary..clearly you did not see the internals in the question who did you vote for it was 48-46 Obama, McCain...since you know everything you must know that McCain was trounced in MI. And Obama will be back in MI later this month to deliver a commencement speech (the second in as many months). Try again.

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hoosier_gary:

@twitterer:

That was in 2008. Obama would be lucky to hit 42% in Michigan if the election was in 2010.

I don't know what Obama's approval is state-wide, but here in southern michigan it stands at about 35%.

Step into 2010. People don't like Obama anymore. That's so 2008.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

It's all Jennifer Granholm's fault that Michigan's economy is falling apart. Not. It's about 30 years of the car companies laying people off in Flint and Detroit. It's amazing how prophetic Moore's movie, Roger & ME, is now. He made it 1989 because he saw that GM's greediness ( they were making huge profits but still eliminating positions by shipping them overseas or still cutting jobs but yet paying CEO Roger huge yearly bonuses. Now Michigan whose whole economy was based off of the Big Three is now a mess. This was coming for 30 years. I know the conservatives are going to blame the unions for this but it's more the fault of management that the big 3 had the problems they had (Pontiac Aztek anyone?). They were making cars that had horrible gas mileage and were less dependable.

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twitter.com/strobe3:

Sure hoosier, call me in 2012 when Obama beats Romney in his own state again.

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iVote:

"People don't like Obama anymore."

How humble of you to speak for the entire human race.

Back to reality....

Funny how the day after Gallup shows Republicans with a 6 point generic ballot lead, Obama posts a +6 net approval rating. Not saying that there's anything to it (both numbers will fluctuate) but it's still interesting.

2010 & 2012 will be about jobs and the economy. If jobs are created and the economy improves, expect the Republicans' attacks to have the same effect (or lack thereof) that they did in 2008.

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Farleftandproud:

Granholm, was sort of joking when a staff member of CNN asked her politely if she had had some tough times keeping her approval up. She more or less said, "yeah, you could say that".

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Farleftandproud:

I predicted the upset with Harry Reid pulling it off because I really think people will see that Reid is a man of integrity, and all his opponents are tea party idealists with no real life experience.

The other upset I predicted was Patty Murray will lose by a small margin. Rossi can be a charmer and after three failed campaigns, I think he may actually get the Scott Brown treatment from the media.

CO, I predicted would be a win for the GOP because the turnout isn't as good out there in off year elections and the state has had so many Democrats winning in recent years, I fear a backlash.

Toomey won't win, but he won't lose by much. With good turnout Sestak should win more handily than that. Toomey's record is just not going to work with a majority of PA Voters.

IL will be a close win for the Dems because it is Obama's home state. I am not sure either candidate is that strong, but IL will have good turnout. They may vote for a Republican governor and a Democratic senator.

The other predictions are about what you would expect. I am afraid to say that Rand Paul will pull it out. KY has strong Democratic turnout but the independents tend to swing red, especially in this current political climate.

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Farleftandproud:

Early Predictions for US Competitive Senate seats Dems 53 GOP 46 plus Charlie Crist

PA Sestak 48 Toomey 46
KY Paul 50 Conway 48
NC Burr 52 Cunningham 47
ARK Halter 41 Boozeman 59
NH Ayotte 52 Hodes 48
IL Alexis G 52 Kirk 48
OH Fisher 49 Portman 51
Washington Rossi 50 Murray 48
Wisconsin Feingold 52 Generic Republican 48
CT Blumenthal 56 Mcmahon 44
NV Reid 51 Republican 49
CO Republican 53 Bennet 47
CA Boxer 56 Fiorina 44
DE Castle 58 Coons 42
ND Hoeven 70 Democrat 30
Florida Crist 42 Rubio 33 Meek 25
Indiana Coats 63 Democrat 37
Missouri Carnahan 46 Blunt 54

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tjampel:

Farleftandproud:

"Early Predictions for US Competitive Senate seats Dems 53 GOP 46 plus Charlie Crist"

Pretty close to my own predictions. Might as well throw em out just for fun 55/44 + Christ (some wishful thinking perhaps at work here):

PA Sestak 50 Toomey 47
KY Paul 52 Conway 47
NC Burr 50 Marshall 49
ARK Halter 45 Boozeman 54
NH Ayotte 52 Hodes 48
IL Alexis G 52 Kirk 48
OH Fisher 50 Portman 49
Washington Rossi 48 Murray 50
Wisconsin Feingold 54 Generic Republican 45
CT Blumenthal 58 Mcmahon 42
NV Reid 50 Republican 49
CO Republican 52 Bennet 48
CA Boxer 53 Fiorina 45
DE Castle 60 Coons 38
ND Hoeven 70 Democrat 30
Florida Crist 39 Rubio 37 Meek 24
Indiana Coats 57 Democrat 41
Missouri Carnahan 48 Blunt 52

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MikeyA:

Obama right now has an approval of about 46%. He needs to stop the leak. If he doesn't his approval will fall even more.

If it hits 40% the Repubs will take both chambers.

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Fred:

I agree with most of Farleft's analysis there. However, I do think Kirk will beat Alexi, and Rubio will beat Crist. I also think Toomey will beat Sestek here in my state of PA.

I also am not sure that Rossi will win in Washington. I'd still put leaning Dem on that one

Pa - Toomey 54 Sestek 46 (just watch)
FL - Rubio 39 Crist 35 Meek 26
IL - Kirk 51 Alexi 49
WA - Murray 52 Rossi 48

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