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MI: 49% Snyder, 37% Bernero (Rasmussen 8/4)

Topics: governor , michigan , poll

Rasmussen
8/4/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Michigan

2010 Governor
49% Snyder (R), 37% Bernero (D)

Favorable/Unfavorable
Virg Bernero: 43 / 44
Rick Snyder: 66 / 18

Job Approve/Disapprove
Gov. Granholm: 37 / 61
Pres. Obama: 46 / 54

 

Comments
Paleo:

A +48 approval/disapproval and he's under 50%? Whatever. Go Virg! A true economic populist.

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tjampel:

PPP noted that Snyder has a very high favorable level with independents, one of the highest, if not the highest of any Republican in the country.

PPP has this to say:
"Rick Snyder's numbers with independents were unlike anything I'd seen for a politician this cycle. I'm pretty amazed when any politician is on positive ground with them period- Snyder was at a +28 spread with them at 37/9....I think there's an argument that Rick Snyder is the strongest Republican candidate in the country this year, period."

Ras' favorables may be a bit optimistic. But looks like Snyder will cruise, at this point.

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Dave:

I think it might be due at least in part to Snyder running a slightly tamer campaign than the other two major candidates for the GOP gov nomination.

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tjampel:

I was really pulling for Hoekstra, who I felt was the most beatable. Oh well, if Snyder is this popular perhaps it's for a good reason. I don't care if we have Dem or Republican governors so long as they are effective. VT knows this, having a socialist Sen and Republican Gov (at the same time).

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melvin:

The GOP really thinks they have a shot at Mich in 2012. I DONT THINK SO!

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tjampel:

MI's unemployment rate peaked at 15%. One of the worst in the country if not the very worst. (I forget)It's down 2 points now from that high.

Obama will carry MI if and only if that number continues to drop. Not an easy task. This may be possible if we can get some green energy jobs created there and if the auto makers continue to improve. Had GM gone under unemployment in MI would have been significantly higher.

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Stillow:

GM did go under....tax dollars saved it. Ya thats right, the guy working in Lubbock bailed GM out out....or to put it correctly, we taxpayers bailed GM out of its pension problem for the time being. Unions put GM out of bsuiness, tax payers saved the union. yay for us!

MI will be in play in 2012....maybe a toss up right now but can easily shift to lean red.

These states that have been dominated by leftists for years have seen the foolishness of their ways....

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Field Marshal:

I would agree with tjample's assessment. MI is an industrial state that has had significantly high unemployment for the past decade-plus. The working/productive population is fleeing the state. A state that had the same population 20 years ago as it does today. Those that remain tend to be democrats. MI will also probably lose two house seats and thus two electoral votes along with Ohio and NY marginalizing its importance.

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Field Marshal:

Stillow,

Correct, GM was saved by the taxpayer. And GM would have probably had the same number of workers today had it filed for bankruptcy. They would not have filed for chapter 7 but chapter 11 and just restructured their debt. Few assets if any would likely have been sold off that weren't already sold off- Saturn.

These states that have been dominated by leftists for years have seen the foolishness of their ways....

I would definitely agree with that. I just don't see enough republicans and other producers sticking around the state to change the awful economic policies in the state when they can easily leave and go to Georgia, Alabama, and other right-to-work states.

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seg:

tjampel:
I wish the best for Michigan. For that reason, I hope you find things other than "green" energy. All exist only because of heavy subsidies, which means a large drain on government budgets and on consumers paying both taxes and energy prices inflated by mandatory purchases of green power. Those costs drive up the cost of doing business, which drives businesses (especially startups) to other states.

When the fiscal sh*t hits the fan after November, ethanol, wind mills, solar panels, and other money sinks will have to go. None of those can conceivably make a dent in our energy needs, despite what some would have you believe. Remember, just as there is a military-industrial complex that feeds stories to the press, so there are self-interested complexes for every federal teat, including the "green" teat. The latter is augmented greatly by the intense desire of many to believe they are supporting a good cause. They are sadly misled.

The sad thing is that most of these efforts will do nothing to reduce air pollution, either. For example, wind mills have an unfortunate habit of not working the substantial fraction of the time the wind does not blow. That means every watt of windmill energy must have a watt of conventional energy sources (e.g., coal-fired) running on standby to replace it. Since electrical production from steam (whether heated by nuclear, coal, gas, or other energy sources) cannot be turned on or off quickly and easily, it means that wind mills cannot be a significant part of mass energy consumption. It can only be a hyper-expensive decoration politicians point to for the TV cameras. The same thing is true for solar power for the same reasons.

Solar and wind energy also are most efficiently produced in regions far from population centers, thus they would require literally a trillion dollars worth of new transmission lines. The latter will never be built, because of NIMBY and because it is an insane waste of money.

It is doubtful if there is ANY net reduction in energy costs or CO2 when biomasses are used to create ethanol when farming, transportation, reduced gas milage and engine life, etc. are factored in. If the first presidential caucus were not in Iowa, ethanol would never have been subsidized. It is truly, truly stupid.

So, build your hobby windmills and buy a $40k solar panel for your own household, but please don't pin your state's economic revival hopes on them. Beware the inundation of "green" scams. Ever heard of "clean" coal? Every business can do a few minor things to reduce energy requirements (while increasing others) or reduce landfill contributions and claim to be "green." Every business will line up at the trough to claim "green" subsidies.

My understanding is that your state has been hurt badly by twin scourges: (1) the contraction of the big 3, and (2) state subsidies and other interventions in the state economy.

My conservative advice for MI is: (1) reduce overhead costs from unnecessary state and local taxes used to support excessive numbers of gov workers, including the likely bloat in schools (teachers outnumbered by staff), (2) reduce red tape and other unnecessary impediments to starting new businesses, and (3) stop subsidizing ANY businesses of any type.

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Stillow:

FM - Its a union thing. You and I abiled GM out of its pension crisis.

The $65,000 question is who will bail out the g'ment from its pension bubble? The taxpayer is tapped out. They may be able to squeeeze a bit more out of us, but our backs are about to break........

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CompCon:

"A +48 approval/disapproval and he's under 50%?"

Not any surprise from me. I work in Michigan and I have never even heard of Rick Snyder until Wednesday morning when they said he won the primary.

Then I heard about him again this morning when the news talked about Berneo calling him a "nasty nerd" and Snyder just laughing and refusing to play the name game.

Granholm is so despised that Berneo will be lucky to get into the low 40's in this election. You can see how desperate he is by turning negative on the day after the primary.

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Paleo:

"Granholm is so despised that Berneo will be lucky to get into the low 40's in this election. You can see how desperate he is by turning negative on the day after the primary."

The only thing Granholm and Bernero have in common is that they're in the same party. One is a corporate Dem, the other a populist Dem.

Not only did Snyder oversee the outsourcing of jobs from Gateway, but I got stuck with one of his crappy computers. Fortunately, I no longer am.

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CompCon:

"The only thing Granholm and Bernero have in common is that they're in the same party. One is a corporate Dem, the other a populist Dem."

That's a distinction lost on 95% of the voters in MI. They look at D and R and that's about it. The want a governor the most unlike Granholm and that means Snyder - even if it is nothing more than the party label.

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Chris V.:

Michigan needs all the help they can get, and I think both of these men would make fine governors. Thank God Hoekstra will not be their next governor.

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jmartin4s:

@ChrisV

Both of these men would be fine governors. Really??? Rick Snyder outsourced thousands of jobs and spent the millions he made as CEO to buy the primary. He got lucky and benefit from Coxx and Hoekstra going nuclear on eachother but he is no moderate he is just following the advice of the high priced consulting firm he hired by saying he wants democrats to cross over and vote for him the in the R primary. This man is no moderate and if they send him to the governor's manchine he would spend his 4 to 8 years destroying the state at the benefit of wall street and the corporate fat cats.

Virg Bernero is a working class man who as mayor created tons of jobs in economically hurt burdened Lansing.

Michigan has a clear choice and if Granholm wasn't so unpopular right now Virg would probably wipe the floor with Snyder in November. However, a warning to all the republicans who think this is an instant pick-up, Virg Bernero is no pushover and will fight like crazy to win this.

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tjampel:

seg;
NOt sure why you're so down on wind-generated energy. I have been researching this after reading your comments and I'm not seeing the things you're talking about being borne out.

For example, while it's true that the wind doesn't blow all the time in one place it does blow all the time in some location. Therefore having wind turbines tied into a grid obviate the problem of requiring backup. Additionally wind energy can be consolidated with the fossil fuel grid. In fact that's exactly what's done in New York, if the consumer wishes. They can have part of their energy delivered from wind; it goes into the grid.

As for being reliant on wind the numbers show that many countries are moving quickly towards just that. In Denmark Wind power provided 18.9% of electricity production and 24.1% of generation capacity in Denmark in 2008. Too small a country to consider? Then take Spain. It's now producing 10% of its energy through wind. On one morning last year in Spain a combination of high winds and low demand resulted in wind energy being able to supply 50% of the energy needed.

Britain plans to have enough generating capacity to power every home by 2020. The US lags way behind with a percent or so. If 10% of our energy production were wind this would mean a huge decrease in our dependence on foreign oil. If you combine this with better engineering techniques such as simply running water pipes under tarmac in the SW, using heat pumps for HVAC, etc....just more efficiency you can reduce consumption by another 5-10%.

Wind energy continues to make rapid gains worldwide. By 2010, the World Wind Energy Association expects over 200 GW of capacity to be installed worldwide,[53] up from 73.9 GW at the end of 2006, implying an anticipated net growth rate of more than 28% per year.

As for solar it's become cheaper over the past 10 years. For the Southwest there are plenty of areas where the sun shines a very high percentage of the time. A smart grid can be built so that this electricity can be distributed over a large area. The supergrid you claim costs a trillion dollars is actually estimated at 60B.

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Chris V.:

"jmartin4s:

@ChrisV

Both of these men would be fine governors. Really??? Rick Snyder outsourced thousands of jobs and spent the millions he made as CEO to buy the primary. He got lucky and benefit from Coxx and Hoekstra going nuclear on eachother but he is no moderate he is just following the advice of the high priced consulting firm he hired by saying he wants democrats to cross over and vote for him the in the R primary. This man is no moderate and if they send him to the governor's manchine he would spend his 4 to 8 years destroying the state at the benefit of wall street and the corporate fat cats.

Virg Bernero is a working class man who as mayor created tons of jobs in economically hurt burdened Lansing.

Michigan has a clear choice and if Granholm wasn't so unpopular right now Virg would probably wipe the floor with Snyder in November. However, a warning to all the republicans who think this is an instant pick-up, Virg Bernero is no pushover and will fight like crazy to win this.

Posted on August 6, 2010 6:00 PM"

Rick Snyder stores dead puppies in his garage and molests his kids! Virg Bernero can cure terminal cancer with a glancing touch of his hand!

Spare me your long blocks of text full of empty talking points. "Buy the primary"...I'm sure you are also upset when wealthy Democrats win races by substantially outspending their opponents. And of course Democrat candidates don't use consulting firms too!

You are also out of your mind with this "Virg would wipe the floor with Snyder in a normal election cycle" nonsense. One look at the approval ratings. "Virg" (I love the first-name basis you are on with him!) has a negative approval rating and Snyder has a +48% approval rating. That makes a lot of sense!

I just knew that I couldn't even say a nice thing about a GOP candidate without one of the Democrat lap dogs giving me crap about it. There are so many people just like you who think that one party is always right and the other is always wrong, and that's a big reason why our political culture has become so god-awful! Thanks!

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jmartin4s:

@chris V
First of all, I have been very critical of democrats who attempt to buy their primaries. Terri Sewell and Steve Pagliuca come to mind. Second, it seems all a republican has to do is "claim" they are a moderate and you all the sudden fall in love with them. It is a fact that Rick Snyder outsourced thousands and thousands and thousands of job overseas. It is a fact that his business practices as a CEO have favored wall street and corporate america and have done no good for main street. It is a fact that Virg Bernero tackles the challenges of today's economy with a fierce determination to bring common sense reforms to government and to create a favorable business climate for new, job-creating investments. It is a fact that under Bernero's leadership, Lansing has leveraged more than a half-billion dollars in new investment that will retain and create more than 6,000 full-time jobs. It is a fact that Virg Bernero erased more than $30 million in city budget deficits without raising taxes by making government more efficient and more accountable.

It is also a fact that Michigan is a blue state that Obama carried with 57% of the vote and has not supported a GOP presidential candidate since 1988. If Granholm was not so hated and despised in Michigan (thus bringing down the current Dem candidate) it makes common sense that in this scenario Virg Bernero with his tough campaign style could wipe the floor with Snyder.

Due to the arguments I have outlined above anyone with a little bit of common sense can see that Virg Bernero is the best candidate for the job and that Snyder is not. However, your argument represents that of a voter who comes off as very uneducated or someone that just likes to provoke an argument.

This election should be about choosing between someone who has served the needs of the middle class and someone who wants to buy his way to president. The truth is that Rick Snyder is nothing more than the second coming of Mitt Romney.

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Chris V.:

You'll notice that I never even said I was supporting Snyder over Bernero, I just said that Snyder seemed like a fine enough candidate. I'm sure Snyder has committed some shady moves during his tenure as a CEO...that's what CEO's do after all. I respect Snyder because he ran an issue-based campaign and ignored the smear tactics that most of his opponents were using.

I still contend that I could have interchanged the names of just about any pair of Democrat and Republican candidates in another race and gotten a similar response of card-stacking "evidence" from you or one of the other Democrat parrots on this website.

And yes, the 49% of voters who currently express support for Snyder in this poll must not have "any common sense." As does anyone else who disagrees with you, correct?

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MikeyA:

I lived in the Ann Arbor/Ypsilanti are from '06 to '09. Let me say that Michigan was a state that heavily bought in to the anti-Bush sentiment.

Now that that is gone and Dems have to run on their own right they're finding it tougher. For years Dem politicians could run on "Union-cred" alone and win. However the Union is not fairing as good as they did in the 80's and early 90's.

MI is a state that tied EVERYTHING to the car industry. I call it the only American Colony because the economy of a colony is subject to severe boom and bust periods and so is Michigan. I can only hope that with the current high employment they realize their folly, I doubt it though, and diversify their economy. Google coming to Ann Arbor was a start but it's not enough.

Until their economy is diversified and less union based the Dems will see high gains in good economic years and losses in bad ones.

It's a shame because it is a beautiful state and has some of the best non-rural areas in the country. But like many other liberal states(NY, CA, DC) it has BLOWN much of it's budget on bad education programs to pacify the teachers unions and it has hurt it's future.

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