Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

MI: McCain 46, Obama 43 (MRG-9/15-20)

Topics: PHome

Market Research Group of Lansing
9/15-20/08; 600 RV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Michigan
McCain 46, Obama 43

 

Comments
ItsTheEconomyStupid:

No mention of this poll in the linked article.

Will the lack of any detail discourage Boomer from praising this survey as far superior to the Rasmussen numbers from earlier in the week? Any bets?

____________________

AmericaFirst:

Never heard of this pollster.

____________________

ItsTheEconomyStupid:

Oops. There is a passing reference. More detail available here: http://www.bythefault.com/2008/09/23/inside-michigan-politics-poll-mccain-by-three/

____________________

AmericaFirst:

Also seems a little stale. Enough to kick MI back yellow?

____________________

ItsTheEconomyStupid:

RCP wasted no time redesignating MI as a tossup.

____________________

You've got to love this quote in the article about this poll:

That poll, however, was based on registered voters, not likely voters -- a better indicator.

Really? I'm skeptical of likely voter models being more accurate than registered voters more than a month in advance of the election as I think they capture short term enthusiasm rather than vote intention.

In any case, I expect this poll will push Michigan back into the tossup category since we're on the knife's edge whether it leans Democrat or is tossup. Which is to say, don't get too excited about a state shifting from one color to another as it could easily shift back with another poll.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

Three things I wanna point out

1- According to Real Clear Politics this is the second poll giving a lead to McCain since May
2- According to RCP this polls has been conducted among LV not RV, which one is correct?
3- I admit it might make some Republicans happy but only 2 polls giving McCain a lead in 4 months
What do make of that?

Let's see what the next one will tell us

____________________

macsuk:

This poll is crap. It is a republican polster, and the poll is published by a newspaper who carries McCain's water.

____________________

Miami4Obama:

Wow - one random poll from a mom and pop pollster tips the state from blue to yellow. Meanwhile dozens of polls have shown Florida as statistically tied or even Obama slightly ahead and it's been light red for months! Doesn't really matter, does it? The only color that matters is what color the state goes on election day.

Let McCain spend as much time and resources as he can in Michigan. Good luck!

____________________

NorseSoccer:

Do we know the party designation split?

Someone had to ask.

____________________

NW Patrick:

FOX News/Rasmussen 09/21 - 09/21 500 LV 51 44 Obama +7
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP 09/14 - 09/21 1346 LV 48 44 Obama +4
MRG of Lansing 09/15 - 09/20 600 LV 43 46 McCain +3
Marist 09/16 - 09/17 599 LV 52 43 Obama +9
Detroit News 09/14 - 09/17 602 LV 43 42 Obama +1
Big10 Battleground 09/14 - 09/17 600 RV 48 44 Obama +4

____________________

IndependentThinker:

There will be a Michigan poll out at 4PM from CNN
We will have a confirmation

____________________

JFactor:

A really weird poll. Let's look at the trend here, this poll could be anything. Michigan is probably still leaning Obama at the moment.
_________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

____________________

NW Patrick:

I'd throw this one out the window based on the most recent polls. Rasmussen, the #2 most accurate pollster by some accounts even showed Obama up 7.

____________________

thoughtful:

This one of Boomshak's pollsters

NH Rasmussen McCain +2 over Obama

____________________

VermontWisdom:

Why is the Marist Poll showing Obama up by 9 in MI not yet posted here?

There is no way to evaluate the reliability of this poll as I can find no internals.

____________________

AmericaFirst:

@Miami4Obama

MI has been closer than FL throughout the election and is right on the cusp of yellow/lightblue for Pollster. The next poll will either confirm or MI will go straight back to light blue.

____________________

StandardDeviation:

Here's the reference: "And another poll in Michigan -- by the Marketing Resource Group of Lansing for the newsletter Inside Michigan Politics -- showed McCain leading Obama in the state, 46%-43%.

(That poll, however, was based on registered voters, not likely voters -- a better indicator.)"

____________________

Hope Reborn:

it is INSANE to include this poll in the mix and color MI Yellow, in the face of huge results from Marist and others, from a pollster that sounds like a real estate agent...

____________________

js:

Here's the PDF for the poll: http://www.mrgmi.com/PR%20Pres%20Fall%2008.pdf

What are the odds of McCain beating Obama by nine points in the Detroit Metro area?

____________________

Hope Reborn:

McCain beating Obama by 9% in Detroit???

More like McCain GETTING 9% in Detroit... have you been to Detroit? This poll is an insult to polling everywhere...

____________________

macsuk:

The cover letter sounded like a commercial for Mccain.

____________________

boomshak:

Wow, you know, it really is flattering how much people talk about what i think even when I'm not around. Stop it, my ego is big enogh already :)

Seriously though. Just another poll showing this thing is close.

ONE INTERESTING POINT:
The author did amke an interesting point. Big population states like CA have Obama ahead by 17 points. This may, in fact, be skewing national polls a bit his way while the BG polls remain close.

CONCLUSION:
Every conceivable advantage is Obama's right now. I mean, EVERYTHING is going his way and yet he cannot close the deal, just as he couldn't close the deal in the primaries.

Obama's biggest weakness is Obama.

____________________

boomshak:

@macsuk:

Yep, those dirty "Republican" pollsters to balance out the 97% Democratic Pollsters.

Stop ur whinin and take it like a man!

____________________

Tyler:

@boomshak

Wait, Obama couldn't close the deal in the primaries? You remember that he won them, right?

____________________

boomshak:

@Tyler:

He limped across the finish line losing by 20 and 30 points down the stretch. No, he couldn't close the deal. He backed in.

____________________

pion:

Obama is beating McCain by +9% in the Detroit metro area. The two numbers in the candidates columns are swaped, but the last column, as well as the statement on the cover page, are correct.

____________________

JFactor:

Interesting that when there's bad methodology and the results favor Obama boomshak goes ballistic and some times correctly points out flaws in the methdology (and sometimes not).

Now however, when the poll's result favors McCain he simply states "just another poll showing this thing is close". And we wonder why the Republicans are perceived as such hypocrites?
________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

____________________

Tyler:

@boomshak

Thankfully, the elections in the US aren't run under the terms of "The Republican wins unless the Democrat carries every region and demographic group". Obama can still win even if he loses states in which he is weak, just like he did in the primaries.

I love the absurdity of the Republican talking point that if Obama isn't winning by a crushing landslide then he is really losing. Talk about playing the inflated expectations game.

____________________

boomshak:

LOL, DID YOU GUYS JUST SEE THE NEW MARIST MI POLL?

It has Obama +9 carrying a 22 point advantage amongst Independents.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA

Sorry, but some of these polls you just have to laugh at. 22 points?

lol.

____________________

AdamSC:

This poll is wrong, Obama is probably up by 2-3 in Michigan right now.

____________________

boomshak:

Oops, that MARIST POS is from back on the 17th, old poll, sorry my bad.

____________________

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Why is it that people on this blog have clearly made up their minds which candidate they're voting for, but every one being polled changes their minds daily? I have never known anyone that is undecided this close to an election.

____________________

boomshak:

PROOF JOHN MCCAIN TRIED TO REFORM FREDDIE MAC:

"Statement by Senator John McCain, May 25, 2006:

Mr. President, this week Fannie Mae's regulator reported that the company's quarterly reports of profit growth over the past few years were "illusions deliberately and systematically created" by the company's senior management, which resulted in a $10.6 billion accounting scandal.

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's report goes on to say that Fannie Mae employees deliberately and intentionally manipulated financial reports to hit earnings targets in order to trigger bonuses for senior executives. In the case of Franklin Raines, Fannie Mae's former chief executive officer, OFHEO's report shows that over half of Mr. Raines' compensation for the 6 years through 2003 was directly tied to meeting earnings targets. The report of financial misconduct at Fannie Mae echoes the deeply troubling $5 billion profit restatement at Freddie Mac.

The OFHEO report also states that Fannie Mae used its political power to lobby Congress in an effort to interfere with the regulator's examination of the company's accounting problems. This report comes some weeks after Freddie Mac paid a record $3.8 million fine in a settlement with the Federal Election Commission and restated lobbying disclosure reports from 2004 to 2005. These are entities that have demonstrated over and over again that they are deeply in need of reform.

For years I have been concerned about the regulatory structure that governs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac--known as Government-sponsored entities or GSEs--and the sheer magnitude of these companies and the role they play in the housing market. OFHEO's report this week does nothing to ease these concerns. In fact, the report does quite the contrary. OFHEO's report solidifies my view that the GSEs need to be reformed without delay.

I join as a cosponsor of the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005, S. 190, to underscore my support for quick passage of GSE regulatory reform legislation. If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system, and the economy as a whole.

I urge my colleagues to support swift action on this GSE reform legislation."

____________________

bmcavan:

Rasmussen/FOX (who are respected pollsters) who lean very obviously to the right put Obama +7. Quinnipiac might be one of the more accurate and put Obama +4. Not that this poll of Obama -3 is to be shrugged off but taken within the entire picture its not a panic button poll.

____________________

RaleighNC:

Now, now Obamabots. Calm down.

____________________

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Since when was Rasmussen or Fox respected by libs?

____________________

CAmatters:

And Marist has Obama up by 9 in MI.

____________________

boomshak:

GALLUP UNCHANGED TODAY:

Despite giving Obama a LUDICROUS 10 point sampling advantage, Obama remains only 3 points ahead.

____________________

boomshak:

@CAmatters:
"And Marist has Obama up by 9 in MI."

That poll is a week old, sorry :)

____________________

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

And Michelle has Obama up by 6am.

____________________

boomshak:

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

"And Michelle has Obama up by 6am."

Lol, funny stuff :)

____________________

boomshak:

People, remember these state polls take small samples and big MOE's. Take at your own risk.

____________________

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Seriously,

Even looking at the aggregate, doesn't make you think that a lot of voters are given to erratic changeableness?

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Market Research Group of Lansing. Enough said.
Got any land for sale while you're at it??

____________________

boomshak:

NEW FOXNEWS POLL SHOWS MCCAIN AT 39?

Huh? That is 8 points less than Rasmussen? Well, this poll was done by OpinionDymanics which explains the difference between the Rasmussen Polling and this poll.

Also, a 7 point sampling advantage given to Democrats.

Still, just 39% for McCain? Let's check around:

Rasmussen: 47% McCain
Gallup: 44% McCain
Battleground: 48% McCain
Ipsos: 43% McCain
Hotline: 42% McCain

Average is 44.8% McCain
FoxNews is 39% McCain

Hmmm.

____________________

1magine:

What does CBS have JM at?

____________________

Snapshot:

Obama leading in the Detroit Metro area by 9 is probably about right. The Detroit Metro area includes the suburbs of which the city of Detroit only makes up about 20% of the population.

____________________

The Dude:

Obama pulling away in MI.

EPIC-MRA poll: Obama by 10

http://www.woodtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=9066719

Yeah BABY!

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR