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MI: Obama 43, McCain 42 (EPICMRA-9/14-17)

Topics: PHome

EPIC/MRA /
Detroit News
9/14-17/08; 602 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Michigan
Obama 43, McCain 42
Sen: Levin (D-i) 56, Hoogendyk (R) 28

 

Comments
Adrian B:

I think your headline is wrong as the stats themselves (and in the article) both read Obama 43 McCain 42. What is interesting is that when VPs are added the lead is 45-42 to Obama-Biden. Looks like Palin affect has definitely evaporated in Michigan.

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jamesia:

The poll says 602 respondents MOE 4%
Obama 43, McCain 42, Nader 2, Barr 2
undecided 10%

It's nice to know the sample size, and the third party numbers when they're available...

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tjampel:

Yes it's very interesting to see the effect from the addition of the word "Palin".


Maybe she should change her name?

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Indiana4Obama:

I think the Obama camp feels very confident about Michgian. It may be a state (along w/ Ohio and Florida) where Palin hurts Mccain's chances.

But it's a state Obama must have, so I'd like to see him open up a decent lead in the state.

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Mike_in_CA:

@Indiana: When considering how big Obama's lead in the state is, it's important to take ALL available polls into account. Several in the past week have him up significantly. Also, interviewing for this poll was started before this week's financial/McCain campaign meltdown.

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Justin:

It's debatable which version should be used here, as when people go to vote they're going to see the full ticket on the ballot.

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vmval1:

Heh! Even rasmussen had Obama a point up today.

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zotz:

I worry about who the 10% undecideds are. I have seen voters in interviews claim to be undecided but it is obvious that they would never vote for Obama. MI is very much a toss-up.

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KipTin:

Does not matter how the question is asked (with or without Palin)... both results are within margin of sampling error. Maybe the differential is increased because people are thinking Obama is running against Palin.

Of course not surprising... with all the 24/7 focus on Palin by MSM (and Obamanation).

Bottom line: People will be voting for who they want for President and the VP slot will matter very little on election day.

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VermontWisdom:

The Palin effect as measured in the raw poll numbers and the comments of voters is remarkable. This will only get worse for McCain as more comes out about her and people realize how extreme her views really are. Most people, knowing all the facts, won't want this radical anywhere near the oval office. The fact that she lies shamelessly and repeatedly is not helping her case either. The American people to Palin/McCain...."Thanks, but no thanks."

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thoughtful:

Eric Your Headline is wrong! is it 43-42 or 45-42?

"The survey by EPIC-MRA, released exclusively to The Detroit News, WXYZ-Action News and outstate television stations WOOD, WILK and WJRT, shows Obama leads McCain 43 percent to 42 percent. Another 10 percent of voters are undecided; third-party candidates Bob Barr and Ralph Nader are at 2 percent each. When voters are presented with the full presidential tickets, including running mates Joe Biden and
Sarah Palin, the Democrats lead, 45 percent to 42 percent.

The survey of 602 likely voters was conducted Sunday through Wednesday, amid the Wall Street turmoil that has roiled the economy and the presidential race. It has an error margin of 4 percentage points. "

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KipTin:

Actually, for Rasmussen daily tracking--Obama has not moved (48%) and has been for three days. McCain lost 1 point (47%) to undecided and had been at 48% for the previous four days.

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KipTin:

Uh... VermontWisdom... When the FACTS come out voters will realize that Palin does NOT have extreme political views.

Obamanation is the one with the ongoing lies and misrepresentation of Palin. And for some reason they cannot differentiate between Palin's personal choices and spiritual outlook as opposed to the actual record on how she has governed.

P.S. Remember separation of church and state? You probably do not realize that we have had one president who was a Jehovah's Witness (Eisenhower), two who were Dutch Reformed (Van Buren, Teddy Roosevelt), two who were Quakers (Hoover, Nixon), and three Disciples of Christ (Garfield, LBJ, Reagan).

But Obamanation expects everyone to be unaffilitated "Christians." Has Obama found a new church yet?

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Justin:

KipTin, while I understand your distinction (and there certainly is one), it's common to use the word "up" in place of the word "ahead."

If you're watching a baseball game and the score is 5-3, it's not incorrect to say that the team in the lead is "up five to three."

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KipTin:

Well, Justin... I don't care. I was pointing out that Obama has had NO movement. Voters going from McCain to undecided is not a postive (+) for Obama.

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Justin:

I was only pointing out that there's no reason to correct someone who wasn't incorrect in the first place. Whether or not you care isn't really the issue. As for your view that negative movement for McCain isn't a positive for Obama, well, whatever makes you feel better.

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Indiana4Obama:

I don't understand the thought that the majority of remaining undecideds will break in the end towards Mccain.

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DPartridge:

Does anyone actually have tabs on this? Because the Palin comments could be coming mostly from Dem's... It's obvious from the comments on Pollster that Palin got under the skin of quite a few of the more liberal bunch.

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thoughtful:

@Justin

Leave Kiptin/Undecided alone, he's got a little bit more to think about!

"Saturday, September 20, 2008 Email to a Friend
In South Carolina, John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama is down to just six percentage points.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race finds McCain leading Obama 51% to 45%. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Obama voters are voting with enthusiasm for him while just 9% are voting primarily against McCain. As for McCain supporters, just 63% are enthusiastic about their candidate while 34% are voting primarily against Obama"

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KipTin:

Probably, its you condescending attitude as shown by your attempt to "correct" and reprimand me, when in fact I made a FACTUAL observation. I chose my screen name for obvious reasons. Enough said.

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zotz:

Indiana4Obama-
I think it is a form of the Bradley effect. They don't like the Reps but they are susceptable to the Rep character attacks on Obama. And although most of these voters would deny it racial stereotypes are a factor.

You don't have to be a klansman to feel prejudice. In fact many blacks feel it. Jesse Jackson once told a story about walking alone on a street in Washington at night and he heard footsteps behind him. He turned around and felt a wave of relief when he saw it was a white man.

But because of the stigma most whites will not admit they feel prejudice.

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KipTin:

So now... thoughtful... you like Rasmussen polls?

As you may have already noticed, and as I have stated numerous times, I do not get "excited" about individual polls that favor my preferred candidate, nor do I sink into doom or gloom for one that does not.

I look at the sampling errors to see if the polls are in the ballpark of other polls as well as if there was movement from that pollster's previous poll.

I will make specific comments on the South Carolina poll when posted.
--------

I see the Diago/Hotline tracking poll is unchanged from yesterday. Obama 45/McCain 44.

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

More prominent dems defecting next week. Want to distance themselves from Obama's tax the rich policy, realizing this is no time to punish those making over $250 thousand. Obama's weakness over Iran and attempt to delay troop withdrawals until after the election also seen as potential firestorm. Obama is looking weak.

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thoughtful:

Kiptin

Rasmussen is one of my favorite pollsters! We know what he is and have some idea how he does it.

The problem with this MICHIGAN poll is no internals. Other than yet another Poll with Obama with the upper hand and not a lot of enthusiasm for McCain and Palin negative, this poll means not a lot.

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Justin:

I didn't intend to be condescending and I apologize if I came across that way.

Rasmussen and Hotline currently use similar party weights (+5 dem) so it is likely that the polls be mostly in line with one another (+1 Obama) until one changes. Rasmussen should have new weights tomorrow. I don't know Hotline's methodology.

Zotz: I think prejudice only comes into play if people think people of African decent are inherently more likely to be violent or lazy or whatever. There are obviously still a lot of people who feel this way and they will probably not be voting for Barack Obama.

It's not really the same as believing that in today's American Society, black people commonly have more problems. Honestly, I'd be more comfortable walking past three white guys late at night that I would three black guys. That is a prejudice but I don't believe it's racism.

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thoughtful:

@Nevermet

The Iraq thing doesn't stick, in fact just adds to the charge of Liars!

The Iran thing is a serious challenge to overcome. What is really an even bigger problem is are worsening relations with Russia.

The Russian alienation is just a continuation of US stupidity over pragmatism.

You know they are at war with Islamist extremists as well!

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Palin continues to add enthusiasm to McCain campaign. Conservative's persuasive influence is affecting voter's views. Libs continue to hate Palin as the anti-Obama, but because majority of people view themselves as at least "somewhat" conservative, they are moving away from Obama. Libs will continue to paint Palin as extreme right, but truth is hard suppress. Lib lies will fail here.

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Justin:

NeverMet, why do you insist on deluding yourself? All the movement this week has been towards Obama. That's a fact. Palin's "favorability" ratings have been dropping. That's a fact. Why would you state that people are moving away from Obama? It just makes you look misinformed and decreases the pull of anything worthwhile you may have to say.

Palin is indeed continuing energize the evangelical base and is drawing crowds, however she is becoming an increasing liability when it comes to independents and moderate republicans.

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KipTin:

Regarding racism... the only crimes committed (as well as attempted) against me have been by white guys (and I live and work in minority communities), so I can truthfully say that I am most uncomfortable walking by three white guys at night.

Too many white guys take advantage of those who are scared of THE OTHERS. If these white guys are also good looking and non-threatening in their demeanor then it is even wiser to be more cautious than more trusting. For an extreme example: Ted Bundy.

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zotz:

NeverMetAnHonestLib-
In a normal election this would be a major story but in this election insane is concidered par for the course!
http://timesonline.typepad.com/uselections/2008/09/palin-linked-el.html

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KipTin:

All unknown candidates' "favorability" ratings drop and "unfavorables" increase when voters got to know them better and undecideds got enough info to make a judgment. The same happened to Obama.

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macsuk:

NeverMetAnHonestLib

No one needs to paint Palin a wingnut, wingnut. By the way if Liberals are Libs does that make Conservatives Cons? From now until Nov. 4th Obama gets to paint McCain as the man who wants to see healthcare open to more competition, and have Social Security run like Wallstreet. Good luck with that Cons!!

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Palin has the ability to talk the people's language. They have been talked down to by the liberal elite for too long. Obama comes across as an intellectual snob--appealing to elitists--not to the average Joe.

The msm tries to portray him as the people's choice, but the people aren't buying it because they see Obama as just another rich politician. Todd Palin is more of a man's man, and even this will be seen as a positive by the working class.

Too much superstardom for Obama early on has had a negative impact on his image.

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Justin:

I'll agree with one thing, NeverMet. If you think intelligence is a bad thing than you should vote for Palin/McCain just as you voted for Bush.

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KipTin:

Really...zotz? You want to start discussing visiting African evangelist Pastor Muthee? When Pastor Wright is still alive and well as a tool to use against Obama? It would be a perfect opening.

BTW: My community had a visiting church pastor here from Uganda this summer. (African evangelists are more common than you think.) He lives in a mud hut in Africa and still has many local cultural beliefs that have been intertwined with his missionary education. FYI: No one was cited as a witch during this time or threatened with stoning.

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Justin:

KipTin, are you comfortable sharing your reasons for supporting McCain in this election?

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zotz:

Kiptin-
Are you implying that Republicans might use guilt by association in order to attack Obama?

I'M SHOCKED!!!

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joecooper:

That's right, NeverMetAnHonestLib, Todd Palin IS a man's man! He's not afraid to "kick some ass" and "shoot s**t"...not like some of these elitist latte-drinking libs!

That's who the WORKING man wants to see in the White House! Cause ass-kickers like Todd Palin wouldn't put up with the complete meltdown of this country's financial system! The people KNOW what he would do! And you know who the people are, don't you? Me and you, buddy, that's who!

Me and NeverMetAnHonestLib say: Todd Palin in '12!

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KipTin:

Not fair...Justin. NeverMetAnHonestLib was talking about academic elitism attitudes (aka snobs) and you generalize it as "intelligence." Guess what? Intelligence is not measured by big words or educational achievement.

I agree that Sarah Palin can communicate better with the voters-- the same voters who will be the deciders of this election. She and Todd are "authentic" in that they use common English vernacular that is the basis of shared speech among Americans. To talk at the same level as the voters is intelligent, rather than to talk down to them. Even Democrats have criticized Obama for not being able to "connect" with ordinary voters.

P.S. I did not vote for Bush--according to Justin I am therefore intelligent. So now I am voting for McCain/Palin. Did I suddenly lose my "intelligence" or am I truly making the "intelligent" choice instead of being sucked in by the Obamanation propaganda?

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Justin:

Silly lib, you know I never said intelligence was a bad thing. It's people that flaunt their intelligence that most Americans dislike. Most of us like people that talk sraight, whose actions match their talk, and have a track record of getting things done.

Obama is so intelligent that he can't even vote yes or no. No amount of intellectual ability can make up for in inability to make decisions.

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joecooper:

Sarah Palin communicates better with the voters. She answers questions just like I would. And that's why I love the Palin/McCain ticket! Because I don't want a bunch of know-it-alls leading my country. I want people I can relate to.

Palin/Palin in '12!

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change:

What to expect from a McCain administration:

An evangelical crusade into Iran.

More deregulation of the Economy which is what led us to this mess, in the words of Mcsame "i am always for more deregulation" -WSJ, McCain

More Guantanomo's and Abu Gharbs; shattering the worlds image abroad

proof: voted with bush 90% of the time

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Justin:

If someone could please point out where I state dor even implied that not voting for Bush made a person intelligent I would appreciate it.

I don't think Obama "flaunts" his intelligent. Speaking and acting in an intelligent manner is not flaunting. It's who he is, and it is a very good thing.

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Justin:

I also asked a simple question, KipTin. Are you comfortable sharing your reasons for supporting McCain? I thought maybe we could have a civil discussion because you seemed a little more reasonable than the average McCain supporter on here, but you seem intend on changing my mind.

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GboroNC:

I have never heard of EPIC/MRA anyone know their reputation as a pollster? Just curious for future reference

As for Muthee didn't he claim a Ms. Mama Jane was a sorceress and demand that she convert or else? While at the same time instigating townsfolk to threaten Ms. Mama Jane based on the spectral evidence and car crashes that occurred near her business.

I know a Kenyan preacher as well. He is respectable man and would never incite violence much less make these types of claims. Quite the opposite, he would much rather help people live in peace with each other than play on mass hysteria. The question is why does Palin associate with the likes of Muthee?

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Justin:

Go back and read what you said. You said that if I think intelligence is a bad thing I should vote for McCain-Palin. Then is must be concluded that I would only be intelligent if I voted for Obama. That is a very CLEARLY implicit.

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thoughtful:

@Nevermet & Kiptin/Undecided

Palin underlines McCain's weaknesses.

She's Young he's Old

She's inexperienced he's Experienced

She makes bad decisions, he makes bad decisions.

She Lies and pretends she doesn't, he lies and pretends he is a straight talker.

She has shown poor judgement and with picking her he has shown bad judgement

She breaks the "no harm" principle in Veep picks. She finishes any chances McCain may have had in the Midwest and the West.

As Veep candidate she is embaressing and a 72 year old's heart beat from being sworn in, an absolutely unthinkable!

What was McCain thinking of?

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change:

factcheck on palin

Bridge To Nowhere: "i told congress thanks but not thanks on that bridge to no where."

what really happen: she hired a lobbying firm to solicit the funds, and when congress threatend to veto it she quickly changed her mind. She till this day has not returned the money, but does not refrain from using the lie in her speeches. -fact

She doesn't believe in global warming-fact

she would deny abortions even in cases of rape and incest-fact

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thoughtful:

EPIC/MRA website has front page and otherwise under construction, local MI company, not rated well on 538 for accuracy. Google and see what i mean!

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joecooper:

NeverMetAnHonestLib, did you hear how Justin just called you "reasonable"? We know what he means by that, don't we? You gonna put up with that?

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Thoughtful:

You MUST be a California-bread anti-war activist hippie. Has too much weed affected your brain? Stop calling everyone liars for crying out loud, that's just a weak mind that can't come up with a decent argument.

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

JoeCooper:

Lol.

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GboroNC:

@thoughtful thanks for the info on EPIC/MRA

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"All unknown candidates' "favorability" ratings drop and "unfavorables" increase when voters got to know them better and undecideds got enough info to make a judgment. The same happened to Obama."

I agree, but not to this degree. Obama's numbers are still better than any of the other three, while Palin's have fallen to the worst of the three.

(Granted, not in every poll, but on average. In one Obama is tied for second with McCain (Biden being the best) and in another Palin is ahead of McCain. But the numbers are showing her to be a liability, not an asset.)

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KipTin:

I support John McCain because he is closer to center than Obama. I do not agree with him on everything (at about the same level that I have never agreed with anyone for whom I have voted.) I truly believe that John McCain will work in a bi-partisan manner with the Democratic-controlled Congress as President. I think a President Obama with a Pelosi-Reid Congress is a recipe for financial disaster (worse than Bush and GOP Congress).

My number one priority is balancing the budget and start to pay down the debt. When that is a reality, then we can seriously tackle issues like Social Security, which is invested in U.S. Treasury Bonds that help finance the federal debt (and earns interest for Social Security fund). The problem lies in the fact that when the Treasury Bonds are cashed in to pay Baby Boomer benefits, other financial investors will need to take its place in financing the federal debt. Right now the only viable sources are MORE foreign investors... and the weak U.S. Dollar does not help there. If we can start reducing the debt, rather than increasing it, then we will need fewer "foreign" investors. Bottom line, Obama's numerous federally-socialized programs will increase the federal debt unless taxes are increased. And even if tax increases are limited to those making +$250K, there will still not be enough revenue to pay for Obama's programs, balance the budget, and decrease the national debt.

Another smaller but related example of why I will not vote for Obama is that he wants to INCREASE the "Faith-Based Initiative" which entails more federally-controlled money being dished out to religious charitable organizations as well as more "oversight" and control of those organizations, including hiring practices. To add to this is the fact that if Obama taxes incomes for $250K then there will be less DIRECT charitable giving. It is federally-controlled socialization that will grow government and expand its control. Scary.

Or I could just state my position with brevity: "No One-Party Rule."

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"she would deny abortions even in cases of rape and incest-fact"

This is an extremist position. One that hurts her chances in most of the country. (And the places it doesn't, McCain was going to win anyway.)

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thoughtful:

Nevermet

Been late than never.

Calling out McCain as a Liar has turned this election.

There will never be happy mornings for him again.

Now that he has based his Health Care Plan on "Deregulation like the Banks", his campaign is going to sink very fast.

He'll find it difficult flip floping and lying out of that!

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kerrchdavis:

I don't think he's calling EVERYONE a liar. I think he's just calling people who lie "liars."

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joecooper:

See? Me and KipTin aren't just animals! We've got good, sound reasons for supporting Palin/McCain, like Social Security and stuff. Everybody knows Democrats aren't good for the economy. They don't know how to handle money like the Republicans. Plus, Obama doesn't "believe" in torture, and REAL Americans know we need to torture people.

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kerrchdavis:

Polls for the Day:

Rasmussen O-48 M-47
Gallup O-50 M-44
Reserach2000 O-50 M-42

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thoughtful:

@Kerrchdavis
You forgot Hotline is 45/44 Obama and similar Id wt. to Rasmussen.

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Justin:

Thank you for that response. I don't at all agree that McCain is closer to the center, but I guess "center" is a somewhat arbitrary concept in politics.

I think Obama's economic policy is fairly sound, and I think he's willing to think things through and surround himself with experts to refine things to match changes in the economic climate. The "tax increases" are really just a rollback of the cuts Bush enacted for the wealthy. This will bring us back to Clinton levels. I don't think many would argue that the economy has improved in the time since then.

I will agree with you as far as "Faith-Based Initiatives" are concerned, but I think socialized medicine would be a very good thing. I'm not afraid to use that term. Unfortunately, that is not what Obama proposes, but a more moderate initiative in that direction. I think a move in that directions is a far better idea than McCain's plan to deregularize further. Would you disagree with that?

I understand your hesitance when it comes to one party ruling, but I think after the disaster of the last eight years it is time the Democrats had a chance to get some things done. Can we at last agree that Bush and the Republican led congress have been a disaster?

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KipTin:

Hey.. change... quit promoting Obamanation lies.

In response:

1. Bridge To Nowhere: "i told congress thanks but not thanks on that bridge to no where."

BEFORE she was Governor, Palin supported the idea of the bridge for Ketchican. (FYI: The bridge would have replaced a passenger-only ferry to the island where their international airport is located. Look at a map.) It is called campaigning. The "earmark" for the "Bridge to Nowhere" was removed by Congress, but TRANSPORTATION funding was still directed to Alaska which could still be used for the bridge (which Obama voted for). After she was elected Governor she KILLED the bridge project because it had become so controversial as well as too costly in terms of finances. (She in fact did say "No" to earmarking funds for the bridge.) Those transportation funds were used for other infrastructure projects, which is quite costly in Alaska for several reasons (climate, distance, etc. Again look at a map.) Every state clamors for Federal Transportation money. NO state is going to return those funds, and Palin would have been negligent as a governor in doing so.

2. She doesn't believe in global warming-fact.

Not fact. She believes in global warming and climate change. Even created a special sub-cabinet in her administration to address climate change.

What she had originally stated is that she did not think that "man" was responsible for climate change. She has since stated that she believes that man is partially responsible.

3. she would deny abortions even in cases of rape and incest-fact

Not fact. Palin is pro-life and that is her personal viewpoint. There is NO record that Palin has used her elected offices to promote those personal beliefs.

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Evolve:

@thoughtful:

Is that todays Hotline or yesterdays

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Justin:

Will post this later in the new tracking thread when it goes up, but since we're on the subject now...

::Change From Yesterday::
Obama reaches 50% in the Gallup Poll for the first time since the conventions ended.

DailyKos.com / Research 2000 (Weight: 35% Dem, 26% Rep, 30% Ind)
Obama +1, McCain 0

Diageo / Hotline (Weight: 41% Dem, 36% Rep, 19% Ind)
Obama 0, McCain 0

Gallup (Weight: Unknown*)
Obama +1, McCain 0

Rasmussen (Weight: 38.7% Dem, 33.6% Rep, 27.7% Ind)
Obama 0, McCain -1


Average Change
Obama +0.5, McCain -0.25

Average Swing
Obama 0.75


*If you have a source for Gallup's weighing measures or lack of weighing please let me know.

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macsuk:

KiP TiN
Yes an according to you Bush was closer to the center also. How did that work out?

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sotonightthatimightsee:

The mere fact that McCain is statistically tied with Obama in this crucial blue state speaks volume and the Obama camp should be beside themselves!

Experts will tell you that if Obama loses Michigan, PA or OH, then it's all over for him unless he can somehow steal CO, VA or IN.

If McCain loses Florida, VA or OH, then it's over for him..unless he can steal MN or WI in order to make up for losing VA.

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KipTin:

According to me... Bush was NOT closer to the center. You should have paid closer attention like I did. Bush just presented himself that way, just as Obama is doing now.

And please note I voted for both Gore and Kerry who would have had to work with a GOP Congress. Just as Clinton did.

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palinisbushwithlipstick:

ooookaaay.

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Evolve:

The only conservative economic president that we have had in the last 40yrs has been Clinton and if Obama is gonna follow anything near that he's got my vote. He went a long way toward that when he didn't change he's stances overnight and he convened with those same advisors that precided over the Clinton years.

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palinisbushwithlipstick:

Obama just hit 50 % in the Gallup poll.

Good Night McCrap/Paliar.

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palinisbushwithlipstick:

Obama is within 6 in South Carolina! And that is from Rass!

Like i said months agao, this thing might be over before they eat dinner on the west coast on 11/4. The atlantic states are going to determine it.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/south_carolina/election_2008_south_carolina_presidential_election

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change:

Justin:

Gallup has been doing presidential polling for decades. The world gallup has become a household name. their error of margin is less then all other polls at 2, and they have a fairly larger sample size. another thing; daily kos picked up this recent bounce before any other poll, maybe its not so bias after all

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Justin:

Yes, but do they weigh parties and if so what is the current weight, what is their methodology for determining the current weight?

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kerrchdavis:
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thoughtful:

@change

Gallup is not the polling outfit it once was, it did not have an impressive performance in the Primaries. OK it's a lot better than the outfit that I think conducted this Michigan poll.

Stating the obvious: different ID weightings and models present different results.

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change:

@kiptin

Sarah Palin is the worst thing that can happen to America. Here is a complete rightwing extremists that WOULD deny abortion even in cases of rape and incest(naral.org), and yes she does deny global warming! do you conservatives have any regard for the truth, or your priest just tells you what the truth is, and you just blindly follow!- fuk u evangelical extremists are gonna send us on another crusade!

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macsuk:

McCain wants congress to look at his plan to fix the current crisis. Is this before or after he opens up social security to these same "crooked investors on wallstreet". Say good by to Florida McWar.

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Evolve:

@palinisbushwithlipstick:

Avery interesting poll, but until it's supported by a couple others I'd have to consider it a outlier. If accurate tho a 10pt gain by Obama in SC would be alarming

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Justin:

Great ad, kerrchdavis. Do you have any information on how they are trying to get it aired?

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change:

@thoughtful

well, gallup is better then rasmussen.. rasmussen completely missed mccains convention bounce. furthermore, they only give dem's a 6 point advantage on party ID which is ridiculous when democrats are expected to dominate the upcoming congressional elections. Gallup fluctuates because public opinion fluctuates. for instance, the conventional bounces both candidates received.-mk

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KipTin:

Please... change... YOU are the one that is not using FACTS.

And I have reported you for your abusive language.

P.S. I am not a Christian nor do I belong to an "organized" religion.

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Evolve:

@macsuk:

That is appalling by McCann. Both the Dem. and Rep. wanted a plan to come out of a neutral committee so there wouldn't be any politics as usual durning this time of crises.

WIN A ELECTION LOSE OUR SHIRTS - McCann's new moto

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Justin:

Rasmussen is currently giving a 5.1 point advantage to democrats. All Ras polls for the past week have been 5.1. This will likely change tomorrow.

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kerrchdavis:

@Justin

My understanding is that the ad has been sent to truthandhope.com and people are making donations to get the ad on air in the key swing states.

Also, there is a video out today of Obama campaigning in Florida. It is absolutely hilarious and you will get a good kick out of what Obama regards as as comedy from the McCain campaign.

Let me know what you guys think:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDTlrd5lXw0&eurl=http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/20/13153/2405/813/601269

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macsuk:

kerrchdavis

That is the ad of the year. Obama should purchase it and run it in every battleground state as much and as long money will allow him.

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Evolve:

I've never been a fan of Ras but their numbers are very consistant when applying their house effect. Meaning when adding 2-3% they very rarely have a outlier. Gallup based on the charts is probably the most reliable pollester of the group.

Charts:
/blogs/how_pollsters_affect_poll_resu.html

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kerrchdavis:

@macsuk

I know, it is REALLY effective. It would be a huge shame if this did not get significant play in Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and Colorado.

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Basil:

JoeCooper

Your reasons for liking Palin are the same ones that Bush voters cited way back when. They thought he'd be a good guy to have a beer with and that he was more like them, so they voted for him.

How's that working out for you?

Actually, you're sounding a lot like a D in R's clothing. Is that necessary?

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kerrchdavis:

@Basil

I think he is just being overly sarcastic :D

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Basil:

kerrchdavis

Thanks. I get that way myself.

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cinnamonape:

KipTin- Interesting that you should point at Eisenhower as a member of a sect that held non-mainstream religious views. In fact, though raised as a Jehovah's Witness...Ike never associated wioth the group in his adult life, and, in fact, openly derogated their more unusual positions. He didn't attend a regular church until after WW2. And finally took up the Presbyterian faith.

http://www.adherents.com/people/pe/Dwight_Eisenhower.html

That's a very different trajectory than Palin has taken...moving from mainstream Catholicism to a evangelical sect that espouses a coming Armageddon, Creationism, and that there should be no distinction between Church and State (dominionism).

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joecooper:

I guess you think tossing around three dollar words like "sarcastic" will stop the terrorists. Drink a latte, you dumb libs! Palin/Palin in '12! SHE GLOWS!

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thoughtful:

@Kerrchdavis

Very funny video, brilliant!

@Change

Rasmussen is good just tailor the poll with the house effect.

I am not so sure with Gallup, too volatile for me.

R2000/Kos at +8% from level a week ago and Gallup is showing an 8% swing as well!

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Ryan in MO:

pollster.com seems to be taking a break from putting up the polls

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m913:

joecooper slays me. HE GLOWS!

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serpounce:

Well since this is already OT I just noticed that the latest poll on RCP for Bush's approval rating is down to 27% (the CBS poll). I kind of feel bad for the guy, he's getting pounded by both sides now, and is dealing with an economy going down the toilet. His own party was relieved when he couldn't make it to the convention. I think the poor guy is looking forward to January as much as anyone.

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change:

@joecooper and him mom

hey at least us "libs" didn't lie the country into war, didn't commit torture, didn't run the economy down into the ****ter with the failed conservative ideology of deregulation. and oh yeah like mcsame has said "the fundamentals of our economy are strong!" he is fundamentally wrong!

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Ryan in MO:

good... now we can move along

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KipTin:

You missed my point... cinnamonape... that many elected officials do indeed abide by the separation of church and state, no matter what their personal religious upbringing and spiritual viewpoints.

Your comment that Palin does not believe in that separation is not based on any facts. In fact, her record of governance supports the separation of church and state.

The Obamanation LIES and EXAGGERATES so much that I will be "god-smacked" when I hear some truth and factual debate coming from that direction.

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zotz:

Kiptin-
"Your comment that Palin does not believe in that separation is not based on any facts."

You want facts? OK

Palin: Iraq war 'a task that is from God'
By GENE JOHNSON – Sep 3, 2008

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin told ministry students at her former church that the United States sent troops to fight in the Iraq war on a "task that is from God."

In an address last June, the Republican vice presidential candidate also urged ministry students to pray for a plan to build a $30 billion natural gas pipeline in the state, calling it "God's will."

Palin asked the students to pray for the troops in Iraq, and noted that her eldest son, Track, was expected to be deployed there.

"Our national leaders are sending them out on a task that is from God," she said. "That's what we have to make sure that we're praying for, that there is a plan and that plan is God's plan."

A video of the speech was posted at the Wasilla Assembly of God's Web site before finding its way on to other sites on the Internet.

Palin told graduating students of the church's School of Ministry, "What I need to do is strike a deal with you guys." As they preached the love of Jesus throughout Alaska, she said, she'd work to implement God's will from the governor's office, including creating jobs by building a pipeline to bring North Slope natural gas to North American markets.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jNulPSqaP1eyysv8ENJWhk0ZSrPgD92VJPL00

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marctx:

No McCain supporters need to spend any time defending Gov. Palin. Like 10,000 plus showed up to see her yesterday. MSNBC anchors following the campaign say they have never seen such long lines and people that want to "see Sarah". Enthusiasm went form like 40% to 71% in the polls. Democrats brag about registration of young voter that never show up on election day. Watch the republicans show up in 65% plus this year. That is millions of votes my friends.

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