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MI: Obama 45, McCain 44 (StrategicVision-9/5-7)

Topics: PHome

Strategic Vision (R)
9/5-7/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Michigan (800 LV, 3%)
Obama 45, McCain 44

Wisconsin (800 LV, 3%)
Obama 46, McCain 43
(August: Obama 47, McCain 42)

 

Comments
Hope Reborn:

WI is safer than MI. MI is McCain's only real shot at picking off a real state that Obama must have.

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Jacob S:

Hmm... This Republican poll is playing into my theory that the convention had a minimal impact on the battleground states.

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Hope Reborn:

One more thing, people regularly claim that Strategic Vision is a GOP polling firm, yet PPP is a liberal polling firm. Odd isn't it that they find parity at Obama +1% in Michigan during the nearly exact same time frame.

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

The spill-over from Ohio has only just begun. Those wonderful working folks in Michigan know the truth when they see it. I predict McCain will be ahead by 6 points same time next week.

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cinnamonape:

Not much of a historical context for the Michigan poll by SV...but it's in line with polls there for awhile. It suggests that it's still a toss-up State. Significantly the Palin pick would thus not appear to have had significant resiliancy in moving people in Michigan.

It's looking more and more that many of the gains that McCain has made nationally as a result of taking on Palin have been in already strongly red-states. As such, if there is a down-side as people become aware that McCain selected an evangelical fundamentalist to draw in the "Rove base" that would more than likely occur in the swing States.


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Justin:

These MI numbers are pretty much in line with the post-Palin PPP survey, so Democratic and Republican pollsters seem actually to agree about something!

Will our discussion reflect a similar spirit of intellectual honesty?

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cinnamonape:

Not much of a historical context for the Michigan poll by SV...but it's in line with polls there for awhile. It suggests that it's still a toss-up State. Significantly the Palin pick would thus not appear to have had significant resiliancy in moving people in Michigan.

It's looking more and more that many of the gains that McCain has made nationally as a result of taking on Palin have been in already strongly red-states. As such, if there is a down-side as people become aware that McCain selected an evangelical fundamentalist to draw in the "Rove base" that would more than likely occur in the swing States.

And spill-over from OHIO? I didn't realize that there was a vast immigration into Michigan from Ohio planned for September?


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Stillow:

Both states are in play.....I'm really thinking Mich could go red...the people in that state are so sick of what the Dems have done to it......McCain should dispatch some high profile GOPers there, Romney for example....Mich is very very much in play for McCain.....Dems have had a deathgrip there for a while and that state continues to be in major pain.

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

The voters in Wisconsin are just like the voters in Alaska. They'll love Palin by October.

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Stillow:

Lets face it, Palin saved this election for McCain. She connects with people and its making a huge difference. The left and media are going to do everything they can think of to destory her....I read there's something like 150 democratic operatives now in Alaska tryign to dig up dirt on her.....BACKLASH.

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Tybo:

Michigan is in play because of the corruption in detroit.

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marctx:

One more Wisconsin poll that is essentially tied should turn the state yellow on Pollster.

Hillary backers come to defense of Palin
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080909/pl_politico/20934

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Hope Reborn:

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Usually convention bounces drop over time. To suggest that McCain can somehow surge 7% in a closely contested state like MI is to betray any credulity you may have previously had.

MI will come down to the wire and could be a decisive state. It'll likely remain tied into the week of Oct 15th when voters will finally hear from the candidates on domestic issues.

I don't think voters and the good workers of MI will take kindly to McCain's plan to tax Healthcare Premium benefits at work.

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thoughtful:

Stillow

I agree with you a lot of the time.

Palin is carrying McCain.

No these states are not in play.

You should mention that Charlie Gibson is going to be spending 2 days exclusively with her dispensing with whatever credibility he and ABC have left. Please don't tell me that MSM is liberal because its bought and pay for by corporate advertising.

Palin will eventually be found out, and be objectionable to at least 60% of the US electorate. Her Favorability ratings can only go down from here.

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Word is out that dem operatives are all over Juno's bars trying to dig up dirt. Considering what they're willing to pay for it, these ought to be great. Apparently we're about to hear that Sarah was having an affair with Captn Zig on Deadliest Catch.

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Sorry, they reported wrong. It's Captn Sig.

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

You are just in denail. Palin is very appealing to many people, not just the right....right now I want the media and the left to keep attacking her, it seems to just make her more popular....

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thoughtful:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110143/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Maintains-5Point-Lead.aspx

Gallup reckons that MCain will be in the lead for at least the next month having gone last based on past Convention bounces.

It looks like a lot of Red action on Red states to me and some narrowing in some battleground states.

Florida looks to me like its going blue.

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obas:

Hey, NeverMetAnHonestLib:

What do you mean the spill over from Ohio has just begun.

Not sure where you reside. But I am right outside Detroit and believe you me LOL! theres NO spill over from Ohio into MI! MI and OH have the worst unemployment. I can not see any reason people from ohio are coming here. I see MI folks going into ohio or futher south, which I wonder how far south cause I bet with in the next election look for the strong republican south to go Yellow all these MI Dems going south for jobs.

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

There are more hockey moms in Michigan and Wisconsin than Alaska. No way Palin will be popular with them.

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

FL will stay red....even though the fellon vote might it closer...

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

obas:
talking about influence, not evacuees. Lol.

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

obas:
talking about influence, not evacuees. Lol.

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

obas:
I was talking about influence, not evacuees. Lol.

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bonncaruso:

Wait till all the polls are out for this week and next, then we have a clearer picture.

But in spite of national polling numbers (which I consider worthless, anyway), even at the peak of his cycle after a convention, McCain has yet to flip even one single Kerry state, and also IA and NM.

So, we will have a good method for comparison in the next weeks.

And the Rasmussen numbers are probably the most surprising, considering that he is a right-leaning pollster.

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cinnamonape:

Didn't McCain in his Nomination Speech say that he was going to eliminate Unemployment Benefits (he said it was a 1950's program...when actually in was created in 1937)? I guess most people fell asleep by then. His plan apparently was to pay "part of the difference" between one's "new job" and the older higher paying job WHILE requiring the worker to retrain at a Jr. College for a "decent paying job".

So...instead of the program where a business puts away a certain amount of $$$ for unemployment insurance...McCain wants the person to work, get a smaller % of what they would earn on unemployment, and then accept what he considers a "decent paying job".

Remember, this is the same McCain that says that a minimum wage of $5.15 and hour is "decent paying". And he's expecting you to go to night school while working to get it!

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richardkreed:

All those 'investigators' up in God's country might try to get something right. Here is the 'per diem scandal' debunked:

A 30-second google search shows that Palin did not inappropriately or illegally claim per diems:

M&IE
Meals and incidental expense allowance. The portion of per diem that reimburses travelers for the cost of meals and necessary incidental expenses including tips, laundry expenses, and other personal costs of travel.

The per diem consists of two parts, meals and incidental expenses, and lodging.

Per Diem
Per diem allowance is a daily payment instead of reimbursement for actual expenses for lodging, meals, and incidental expenses. It is separate from transportation expenses and other miscellaneous expenses.

Residence
The residence of a traveler is the location, or within 50 miles thereof, where the traveler maintains the primary dwelling. If a traveler maintains multiple residences, the commissioner of the department shall designate the residence that bears the most logical relationship to the traveler's duty station as the traveler's primary residence. Factors to be considered in determining the primary residence include: the time ordinarily spent performing duties at each location; the degree of business activity at each location; the relative amount of state wages earned at each location. Agencies may also contact the Division of Finance for assistance. [NOTE - obviously the governor of Alaska's duty station is not Wasilla, and so her primary residence is the gov's mansion]

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Tybo:

"Didn't McCain in his Nomination Speech say that he was going to eliminate Unemployment Benefits "

link please

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obas:

Why I applaud you for your logic and maybe you have some insight that I am unaware of. I am not sure what influence or even "advice" ohio has that MI has listen to or taken.

Furthermore, to be even sided LOL! I dont think the 2 states with the highest unemployment should be taking advice from each other.

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

obas:
I was talking about influence, not evacuees. Lol.

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KipTin:

Actually... cinnamonape... McCain's new unemployment benefits make sense, and most workers want to work and get new job training, and the make-up wages are very welcome. In the old days, people were laid off "temporarily" and the old unemployment worked well. Now there is no job to go back to.

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Brutus1_:

Poor retardlicans, stuck with the Dumb/Dumber ticket.


Let's see, we have one guy who finished 894/899 in his class and by many reports should have flunked out of college if not for his admiral father - gee, who does that remind you of??


And now this genius picks a University of Idaho alum who believes in creationism and that climate change is not man-made, and that our army is doing "God's work". Palin took 6 years to get a four year degree - from one of the lowest ranked schools in the country - The University of Idaho. Neither she nor McCain have any graduate school education.....figures.

Let's see Obama's education - Columbia then Harvard Law graduating Magna Cum Laude. He also taught Constitutional Law at a top school, the University of Chicago. Biden graduated Syracuse with a JD too.

So on one side we have two pretty sharp guys, while on the other......well, good luck with that Americans.

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Brutus1_:

Holy sh*t!! This is HUGE!!

http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2008/09/brown-backs-oba.html


The British PM wants OBAMA! Eat that retardlicans!

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Brutus1_:

Good grief, I knew they liked him around the globe, but jeezus, this is just crazy. It is unprecedented, I would imagine, that someone is that loved internationally and much less so at home. I mean, he demolishes mccain EVERYWHERE.

It is only the knuckle-dragging neo-cons here that don't want him as president. Amazingly enough, it is the same lot that voted for Bush the last 8 years. Go figure!


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/09/2360240.htm?section=world

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Brutus1_:
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fenwaydawg:

I don't like to rain on anyone's parade - GOP or Democrat - but polls taken in the weeks after the Conventions rarely mean anything (anyone remember Kerry's 30+% lead AFTER the GOP Convention in 04?).

It is interesting, but too early to read anything statistically significant, that Obama seems to be holding in State polls - even closing in Florida and Colorado - whilst the tracking polls (Gallup excepted) are almost exactly where they were in the weeks pre-Denver.

The next significant moment will be the first telvised debate - if McCain continues to pull away after that, Obama should be worried.

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faithhopelove:

If any poll should have shown McCain ahead in MI, it would have been this one--right-leaning and taken in the middle of McCain's Palin/convention bounce. Gallup, which has shown a big bounce for McCain nationally, nonetheless shows Obama continuing to lead in the Midwest and in battleground states. See:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108037/Candidate-Support-Region.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108061/Candidate-Support-Red-Purple-Blue-States.aspx

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