Pollster.com

If Obama wins only MI and CO out of the toss ups... Its a tie... :) Unlikely but possible...

Seriously? THIS big a lead? Frankly, I was expecting a McCain lead. I'm gladdened to read this result instead.

So InsiderAdvantage remains the only poll since May to show a McCain lead in MI.

I don't see why everyone is running around saying that MI is suddenly a tossup - McCain will not win any state that he isn't leading in at the height of his bounce this week.

Michigan's polling numbers really seem to be volatile lately. I really have no idea why this is. Maybe McCain got a bounce here, and it's already faded, or it's just so much statistical noise in the polls. Either way, I really don't think that McCain will win Michigan, no matter how hard he tries. He will have to win the EC in a landslide to get Michigan.

Those are good numbers for Obama. Funny how all of a sudden some posters will be in love with Rasmussen...lol.

Tyler:

I refuse to demand the Republican posters here to give up Michigan: they can try as hard as they can to get it. In return, I expect Republican posters to stop trying to make Dem posters give up Virginia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio....

The Insider Advantage poll was a JOKE! It had McCain winning like 20% of the black vote in MI. I was laughing so hard! MI Is safe. Here's the facts folks.. spin all you want. If Obama holds Kerry states and adds NM CO AND IA he's the next president with our without FL or OH. McCain has an uphill battle, more than Obama even thought the popular vote polls show other.

RaleighNC - I've always had respect for Rasmussen's numbers. I think in a few states - VA, OH, and FL - they underestimate Democratic registration slightly, but they're a good pollster.

Michigan should be giong light blue soon

@NW Patrick.
I agree with you. McCain may win the popular vote and lose EC. He is racking up huge margins in the red republican states. Smart move by Obama to forgo financing from uncle sam. McCain would have to spend his dollars wisely. He can't spend everywhere.

HUGE! HUGE! HUGE!

Big relief for this poll-obsessed politico. I was also expecting a slight McCain lead in MI. Now I see this is likely going to be safe Dem which frees Obama to hammer McCain in CO and elsewhere.

Man, I'm suffering from serious poll overload.

The Reps have to admit this is a legitimate poll. And it is right in the middle of the McCain bounce! That means McCain is in trouble. And I think Obama still has a shot at both OH and FL. We saw two polls showing NC at McCain +3%. That means VA is within striking distance for O. At minimum they are going to have to spend resourses there.

Ok so what this poll solidifies is that Obama will almost certainly win all of the Kerry states. This is the best week in 4 years for the GOP and Obama has held his lead in all of the Kerry states. I also don't think there's any question that Obama will win Iowa, so that gives him 258 electoral votes.

The question over the next 1.5 months, then, is whether Obama can come up with 12 (really 11) electoral votes out of the following states (put in order of most likely for Obama to flip):

New Mexico (5)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (5)
Ohio (20)
Virginia (12)
Florida (27)

What happens if the EVs are tied?

Looks good. I'm waiting for the polls in Nevada.

@vmval1: "What happens if the EVs are tied?"

Check out:

http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/faq.html#270

Cool - thanks.

@vmal1: The election goes to the House of Representatives where each state delegation gets one vote. Currently the Dems hold a majority in 27 states, Reps have 21 and two are tied. Theoretically, Obama would win if the EVs come out tied but you can imagine the fight if that happened. It would make Florida of 2000 look like a love-fest.

@vmval1

If the EVs are tied it's kind of complicated but it should result in an Obama victory.

Assuming no elector defects to the other candidate, and the electoral votes really are tied when they are officially counted, the NEWLY ELECTED house of representatives will vote for president (between the top 3 EV-getters, so McCain and Obama only). In this vote, each state delegation gets one vote, so if a state has equal numbers of R and D reps, they deadlock and won't vote. Currently, a majority of states have a Democratic majority in their house delegations, and this is only expected to increase with this election. So as long as it remains a party-line vote, Obama would be elected.

The Senate would then elect the VP (in this case each senator gets his or her own vote). Remember this is the newly-elected congress, so as long as the Dems have at least 1 senate pickup this election, Lieberman won't matter.

In summary a 269-269 EV tie is an Obama victory unless something bizarre happens involving Democratic electors or Democratic congresmen voting for McCain.

@Unbiased08: I don't think you can give NC to McCain. Also, McCain has a good shot at NH and maybe PA---I simply don't see McCain winning MI or any of the other Kerry states.

At this stage, it doesn't look completely out of the realms of possibility.

Unbiased08 - I think you're an EV off. Kerry + Iowa is 259, not 258 - so New Mexico + Nevada is an EC tie that would probably go for Obama.

Well what can you say STILLOW it could be all down to all those Californian Liberals that have moved like Locusts to So Nevada!

I am sick of people saying McCain's bounce week. The convention was a week ago and people are still saying this is the height of his bounce. This should be the end of his bounce but he is polling better than ever.

thoughtful-
Count me in! If Stillow gives me his address I might drop by (unless he has a shotgun) LOL!

It's not about OH VA and FL. It's about New Mexico (5) Colorado (9)and Nevada (5). If obama wins 2 of those 3. It's over. Polls in NV and CO as of late have been VERY promising. And NM, Rasmussen shows McCain up 2. But prior to that Obama up 12 on CNN's poll. I think NM is somewhere around 4 to 5% Obama. McCain's in trouble!

vmval1:
What happens if the EVs are tied?

the house of representative decides.

ndirish11-
McCain's bounce week!McCain's bounce week!McCain's bounce week!McCain's bounce week!McCain's bounce week!McCain's bounce week!McCain's bounce week!McCain's bounce week!McCain's bounce week!McCain's bounce week!McCain's bounce week!McCain's bounce week!McCain's bounce week!McCain's bounce week!

Just messin' with ya! LOL!!!

ndirish11:

Before the conventions started, it was stated as common knowledge that the height of bounces comes a week after. It isn't just an excuse and I have already said a million times now with the new polling that the race is tighter than ever.

Who wants to guess how many people are going to watch the september 26th debates?

@NW Patrick: Well, as someone who plans to vote for Obama, I simply don't see how you can assume that NH will stay blue. If McCain wins NH, Obama needs another state to compensate. NH went +1.3 for Bush and 2000 and +1.3 for Kerry in 2004. McCain can claim a special relationship with that state and it's definitely in play and will stay so until the election.

@ pion:

I am a realist with polls but I think NH will stay blue. The New England area doesn't have the habit of going red a lot if I recall. I think Palin sealed the deal that NH will stay blue.

@Robi: I hope you're right. But for the record, it went red in 2000, 1988, 1984, 1980, 1976, 1972, 1968. Only Clinton and Kerry won it in recently.

@Robi: I hope you're right. But for the record, it went red in 2000, 1988, 1984, 1980, 1976, 1972, 1968. Only Clinton and Kerry won it recently.

I thought it went blue in 2000...I stand corrected...

This poll, from right-leaning Rasmussen, has a larger sample than today's IA poll of MI. Perhaps Rasmussen found, unlike IA, that more than 77% of African-Americans back Obama. McCain remains within the margin of error.

I don't think NH Reps are the same as the conservatives elsewhere. I think this is one state where Palin is a liability.

This poll does not include Nader. The CNN/Time poll had Obama 45%/John McCain 42%/Nader 6%
(Margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.)

Is Nader on the ballot in NH?

This was too funny. No really, it was too funny, that it was just scary.

Look for the numbers to change - BIG TIME.

This dumb bimbo didn't even know what the Bush Doctrine was. Good God. Yup, that's who I want at the helm should 72 year-old mccain kick the bucket.

My Lord. This just ceases to be funny at some point and just plain dangerous. What the F#$@* was McCain thinking?????? Country first, my a$$! He would rather win an election than have a qualified running mate. The guy has gone off the range.

Next, this dumba$$ says that war with Russia (RUSSIA!!) is possible over Georgia, which isn't even a part of NATO. Sweet Jesus. Maybe she has bought into the "end of days" scenario that was preached in her church.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/11/sarah-palins-charlie-gibs_n_125772.html

I couldn't watch it. She said she would go to war over Georgia? That's major! Maybe she thought he meant the state of Georgia. That would be an honest mistake!

I understand that she was giving a line that the McCain campaign gave to her about alliances, but of course an ally of NATO would be obligated to help (although georgia is not one and I don't know why one would speak in hypotheticals).

It's a "duh" point she made to try to seem versed in foreign policy in my opinion.

Robi-
The problem is in the perseption. People now will be thinking that this person could be leading us in a major war. Up until now people were talking about how strong or how pretty she was. It was fluff (for the fluffy-minded). Now, the reality will sink in that this person could decide whether we go to war with Russia.

This is a serious matter and it could muffle the Palin excitement.

According to the map on this site, MI would give Obama 260 EVs. NH is the key. If Obama can hold it, and I think he will, then any one of Unbiased's big states or any two of the small ones will give Obama at least a tie, which will mean victory in the House. On the Palin interview, what I saw will serve as shock therapy for anyone not a card carrying member of the radical right. It's obvious why she is being kept away from reporters.

Come one guys these polls are all over the place..monday we will know where everything stands!

As somebody who has lived in MI all their life, I can attest to the fact that the state should stay blue until the election. Sure there's Republicans here but not enough voters who like McCain to combat the huge youth vote mobilization across the state. I'd say at my university there's probably 25% of students that like McCain. Word on the ground here has generally been Obama. The economy here is THE worst in the nation and voters recognize that Obama is generally stonger on that issue.