Michigan Results Thread
Mark Blumenthal | January 15, 2008
Topics: 2008 , Exit Polls , The 2008 Race
Via Marc Ambinder, live blogging about Michigan:
Early Exit Poll Trends...
** 68% of voters in the Republican primary identified as Republican; a quarter said they were independents and 7% said they were Democrats.... (in 2000, only 45% said they were Republican)..
** 44% say they decided in the final week
These results are based on early exit poll tabulations which may be weighted heavily to what exit pollsters call the "prior estimate" -- in essence the average of the vote preference as measured by pre-election polls. As actual results become available in each sample precinct, they will adjust the results to bring the exit poll vote estimate (that we cannot yet see) into line with the actual count within the sampled precincts. In other words, be careful, these results may change.
The exit poll tabulations for the Republicans and Democrats should appear at the links in this sentence on MSNBC.com shortly after the poll close. I'm going to be offline for a few hours, but feel free to add your thoughts to the comments.
By Mark Blumenthal | January 15, 2008 6:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (6)
Comments
Based on other polling data that showed Romney with a 3:2 advantage among Republicans and McCain with a 2:1 advantage among Independents and Democrats, this would suggest a Romney lead of about four points.
Posted on January 15, 2008 7:30 PM
I pointed out to Mark earlier that the polls close twice in Michigan -- most of them at 8 Eastern, the westernmost at 8 Central = 9 Eastern. (If anyone knows better, please advise!) So I'm expecting that tonight will be like last week in New Hampshire: results coming in for an hour before the exit poll tabs are posted.
Posted on January 15, 2008 7:52 PM
Politico has the early numbers (I wonder if there's a website that has faster results...) With 6.66% reporting:
Hillary 62.24%
Uncomm 32.35%
Romney Wins Repub.
Posted on January 15, 2008 9:00 PM
And the quick call on CNN. OK, tip of the hat to NRO on that.
Posted on January 15, 2008 9:01 PM
For the record, I'm running the tab right now (via CNN) as 35.3 for Romney, 29.4 for McCain, 17.1 for Huckabee.
Posted on January 15, 2008 9:09 PM
These tabs can never be taken literally, but it's interesting that among the 44% who chose "shares my values" as the most important candidate quality, 34% went for Romney, 28% for Huckabee, 17% for McCain. McCain won 42-23 among the 27% who chose "says what he believes." And Romney beat McCain 52-41 among the 22% who chose "has the right experience."
Posted on January 15, 2008 9:28 PM
Post a comment