Archive:
Miscellanous
May 13, 2008
Gary Langer digs into the ABC/Post general election data on Barack Obama's performance among non-college white voters. Poblano projects a 39 percentage point, 105,000 vote win for Clinton in West Virginia. Brian Schaffner has delegate predictions for WV and beyond....May 12, 2008
[Brought to you on Monday morning due to a Sunday evening power outage...] Gary Langer and the ABC Polling Unit chart Obama's ascent in delegates and popular votes: Poblano has the "magic number" for Obama to clinch the nomination under...May 07, 2008
[I fell behind a bit on his feature over the last hectic week, so some of these are a little stale]. Kathy Frankovic considers the reasons for conflicting national numbers from CBS/NYT and Gallup earlier this week (see also my...April 16, 2008
Kathy Frankovic sees strong parallels between currently bleak assessments of the president and the economy and those expressed by Americans in 1992 and 1980. Frank Newport puts on his sociologist's hat and examines Barack Obama's controversial "bitter" comments. David Hill...April 11, 2008
Bill McInturff will rejoin the McCain campaign as pollster, along with Ed Goeas and Linda DiVall (via Ambinder, see also Martin and Murray). Kathy Frankovic sees little evidence of a "Limbaugh Effect" in exit polls. Frank Newport considers the sources...April 09, 2008
David Hill ponders the fall of Mark Penn and the reasons why "pollsters are the red-haired stepchild of politics when it comes to holding truly significant roles in major presidential campaigns." Karen Tumulty chronicles Penn's demotion and recalls a forgotten...April 04, 2008
Mark Penn meets with the Columbia's U.S. ambassador to discuss a free trade agreement then admits to an "error in judgement," drawing comment across the blogosphere. Annette John-Hall (of the Philadelphia Inquirer) considers "those crazy polls" in Pennsylvania. David Leonhardt...April 02, 2008
Gary Langer averages airworthy national polls and considers coverage problems in a "global" poll. Kathy Frankovic pays homage to Phil Meyer's contribution and ponders the future of polls and journalism. Frank Newport sees little change in patterns of voting by...March 28, 2008
Kathy Frankovic explains the utility of panel-back surveys for measuring change, and shares more data on their follow-up survey on Obama's speech on race. Jennifer Agiesta digs deeper into the recent national surveys and sees "potential negatives on both Democratic...March 19, 2008
Poblano puts up a new site (538) that aggregates polls weighted with a "reliability rating." Gregory Nini and Glenn Hurwitz produce a statistical model and conclude that "roughly two million more people would have voted in Florida and Michigan had...March 12, 2008
Kathy Frankovic considers the Democratic superdelegates in the context of "poll after poll" showing Americans' "desire to have elected officials listen to them." Frank Newport says "rank and file Democrats" are "on top of what's going on" regarding the controversies...March 07, 2008
Los Angeles Times' editor Don Frederick thinks pollsters are doing better, yet the paper closes down its own polling operation. The Providence Journal considers the challenges facing political polling. David Hill says the "youth vote" is unreliable and "over hyped."...February 28, 2008
My latest column for NationalJournal.com, which discusses measuring a survey's merit, is now online....February 25, 2008
(Left over from last week due to a weekend spent at a family gathering...) Chris Ison and Rob Daves look closely at the dearth of pre-caucus polling in Minnesota and the state of pre-election surveys generally -- well worth a...February 16, 2008
The Hartford Courant's Joann Klimkiewicz examines the problems of polling in 2008. Kathy Frankovic shares her skepticism over polls to tells us which is most electable in 2008. Frank Newport finds that John McCains "displeases" many conservative Republicans. Gary Langer...February 10, 2008
Regular readers should note that I added an update this afternoon with more thoughts on the Response from Frank Newport. Now on to this week's "outliers".... Al Hunt is betting against the pollsters, big time. Wall Street Journal "Numbers Guy"...February 04, 2008
The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) named the members of its previously announced panel to study the New Hampshire and other pre-election polls in 2008. The panel includes our own Charles Franklin. Frank Newport blogs six more things...January 31, 2008
My National Journal column, which discusses the fundamental unanswered question about the Obama campaign, is now online....January 25, 2008
Gallup introduces a daily national tracking survey (in case you didn't follow the links on Eric's earlier post). SurveyUSA blogs the final South Carolina polls. Jay Cost delves into the SurveyUSA crosstabs to ponder the state of the GOP race....January 08, 2008
Frank Newport considers the paradox of Mike Huckabee's support rising nationally while he remains in third place in New Hampshire. Gary Langer argues that the large numbers of independents that participate in the New Hampshire primary "have compromised the state’s...January 03, 2008
As we wait for early returns, here are some Iowa and New Hampshire related items overlooked from earlier today: Gallup posted two reports on the impact of Iowa and New Hampshire today. One summarized historical data on how the early...January 03, 2008
Some stories nearly missed while I've been obsessing over Iowa... My colleague, AAPOR President Nancy Mathiowetz, condemns the spread of fraudulent push-"polls" via interactive-voice-response and recommends we all start calling these "push calling" because aim to "to influence your impression...December 22, 2007
Barack Obama starts mentioning poll numbers. John McCain wants another investigation into another so-called "push poll," this time allegedly benefiting Mike Huckabee. Campaigns & Elections magazine reminds us that "push-polls" are not polls at all. Giuliani pollster Ed Goeas discusses...December 21, 2007
With the deluge of new primary polls this week, I nearly neglected to pass along word that Poynter's NewsU online course for journalists on "Understanding and Interpreting Polls" added a new section this week on "How Election Polls Work." The...December 18, 2007
Roger Simon has a must-read review of the Iowa entrance poll planned by the networks. Mickey Kaus would rather they didn't. The Caucus graphs the television advertising totals from Iowa and New Hampshire through November (via Martin). Evan Tracey reports...December 08, 2007
The New York Times' Megan Thee looks at the challenge to telephone poll sampling posed by cell phones. My neighbor Joel Achenbach blogs on political polls as only Joel Achenbach can. Don't miss his discussion of "squishiness bias." Carl Bialik...December 05, 2007
David Hill is betting on Republican presidential candidates working to build a "base," or as he defines it, a "portion of the electorate that can be readily solicited by ordinary channels of communications like direct mail, telephone, radio or TV."...December 04, 2007
Jon Martin has been traveling with the McCain campaign and he offers a theory on why reporters that cover McCain like him so much. He not only recognizes the "absurdities of What it Takes to run for president," as Martin...November 29, 2007
I'm having to spend some time doing some back room work here at Pollster, so I'm relieved I can pass along this video from The Onion summarizing results from their latest "poll" (includes a word or two NSFW): And yes,...November 22, 2007
Republican Pollster Neil Newhouse sends Politico a "brief pollster's guide to what constitutes a push poll and what doesn't." Kathy Frankovic reviews the Romney "push poll" story and the confusion between "push" polls and real polls, reminding us that...November 16, 2007
Frank Newport challenges Barack Obama's comments about "poll driven positions" and thinks a Time Magazine polling box "gets it backwards" regarding recent slippage. [Note: our chart based on trial heats without Gore included as a candidate now shows a...November 08, 2007
I have been on a train for most of the afternoon, and did not have time to post earlier, so two quick notes. First, you can catch me on a new "Swampcast" with Ana Marie Cox at Time's Swampland...November 07, 2007
Frank Newport compares Hillary Clinton's performance on the recent Gallup survey to the recent Marist survey and warns of small sample sizes but also sees good news for her challengers in the type of candidate Democrats are looking for....November 02, 2007
Frank Newport blogs on the importance of immigration to Democrats and promises a new Gallup poll on the presidential race early next week. Jonathan Martin blogs comments from Winthrop University professor Scott Huffman on the methodology of his recent...October 26, 2007
Jay Cost ponders the history of national presidential primary polls and concludes they "are too volatile" to reach the conclusion that Hillary Clinton is inevitable. Ezra Klein and Brenden Nyhan debate whether Hillary Clinton is "the most polarizing candidate."...October 22, 2007
As it seems to be a day for not taking ourselves too seriously, here is another item from the incomparable Onion (via an alert reader and Andrew Sullivan). A warning, this video clip includes strong language NOT suitable for...October 16, 2007
Congratulations to the Colorado Rockies for their four game sweep of the National League Championship Series. What does this have to do with Pollster.com (other than the author's own hometown team obsession)? The answer is Rockies pitcher Jeff Francis,...October 12, 2007
Mark Mellman - in a must read that deserves more discussion than I've had time to give- tells us that the Democratic presidential nomination "ain't over yet," and that the Iowa caucuses "stand as a potential choke point on...October 05, 2007
Kathy Frankovic revisits the classic "forbid or allow" question experiment in the context of the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speech at Columbia University. David Hill sees hope for conservatives in a recent Gallup poll result on the Supreme Court. Adam Nagourney...September 28, 2007
Gary Langer remembers the numbers for Newt Gingrich when he was Speaker. Frank Newport looks at Gallup's numbers on the Democratic presidential race with and without Al Gore. Jennifer Agiesta looks at what the Fox News poll has to...September 25, 2007
Politico's Elizabeth Wilner tracks the drop in Republican identification as measured by the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. The Des Moines Register reports on a focus group of Republican caucus-goers (via Martin) First Read reports that Pollster Bill McInturff is...September 12, 2007
Frank Newport ponders whether, the recent Gallup result aside, other polls may be showing "real changes in the GOP presidential race." Kathy Frankovic considers why so many Americans believe Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the 9/11 terrorist attacks....September 12, 2007
Regular readers will know that I am active in the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), the leading professional association of pollsters and survey researchers. That volunteer commitment sometimes competes with Pollster.com for my attention, as it did...September 07, 2007
I'm in a day long meeting as part of my volunteer duties on the executive council of the American Association for Public Opinion research. Meanwhile... Politico's Jim Harris and Jim VandeHei review the new book by Clinton pollster Mark...August 01, 2007
Republican pollster David Hill ponders the difficulty of polling in primaries and the August "Twilight Zone of presidential politics in which pollsters will have a hard time determining what's real and what is illusion in poll results." "Gallup Guru"...July 25, 2007
CBS's Kathy Frankovic provides some useful historical background on the application of random probability sampling to political polling and explains why pollsters "make such a big deal" about it. ABC's Gary Langer explains "what we're after" in conducting national...June 22, 2007
It is Friday afternoon, so -- in the spirit of Friday afternoon cat blogging -- we bring you this spoof from the "Onion News Network." Don't ask, just click: In The Know: Kim Jong-Il's Approval Rating Plummets to 120...September 07, 2006
Here is a story we hate to see. The manager of a survey call center that did work for Republican pollsters pleaded guilty yesterday to defrauding her clients and now faces up to five years in prison and a...
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08 STATEWIDE PRIMARIES
US
Dem,
Rep
Upcoming
Kentucky (5/20)
Oregon (5/20)
Puerto Rico (6/1)
Montana (6/3)
South Dakota (6/3)
2008 POLL DATA
Pres General Election:
McCain vs
US: Clinton, Obama
AL: Clinton, Obama
AK: Clinton, Obama
AZ: Clinton, Obama
AR: Clinton, Obama
CA: Clinton, Obama
CO: Clinton, Obama
CT: Clinton, Obama
DE: Clinton, Obama
FL: Clinton, Obama
GA: Clinton, Obama
HI: Clinton, Obama
ID: Clinton, Obama
IL: Clinton, Obama
IN: Clinton, Obama
IA: Clinton, Obama
KS: Clinton, Obama
KY: Clinton, Obama
LA: Clinton, Obama
ME: Clinton, Obama
MD: Clinton, Obama
MA: Clinton, Obama
MI: Clinton, Obama
MN: Clinton, Obama
MS: Clinton, Obama
MO: Clinton, Obama
MT: Clinton, Obama
NE: Clinton, Obama
NV: Clinton, Obama
NH: Clinton, Obama
NJ: Clinton, Obama
NM: Clinton, Obama
NY: Clinton, Obama
NC: Clinton, Obama
ND: Clinton, Obama
OH: Clinton, Obama
OK: Clinton, Obama
OR: Clinton, Obama
PA: Clinton, Obama
RI: Clinton, Obama
SC: Clinton, Obama
SD: Clinton, Obama
TN: Clinton, Obama
TX: Clinton, Obama
UT: Clinton, Obama
VT: Clinton, Obama
VA: Clinton, Obama
WA: Clinton, Obama
WV: Clinton, Obama
WI: Clinton, Obama
WY: Clinton, Obama
Sen General Election:
Alaska
Colorado
Louisiana
Maine
Minnesota
Mississippi (Special)
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Mexico (Pearce)
New Mexico (Wilson)
North Carolina
Texas
Virginia
PUBLIC POLLSTERS
ABC News
AP-IPSOS
CBS News
Democracy Corps (D)
Diageo/Hotline Poll
Economist/YouGov
EPIC/MRA
The Field Poll
FOX News
GWU/Battleground
Gallup
Harris Interactive
IBD/TIPP
ICR - International Communications Research
LA Times/Bloomberg
Mason Dixon Polling and Research
Marist Poll
Market Shares Corporation
Mitchell Interactive
NBC/Wall Street Journal
New York Times
Opinion Research Corporation
Pew Research Center
Polimetrix
Princeton Survey Research Associates International
Public Agenda
Public Policy Polling
Quinnipiac University Poll
Rasmussen Reports
Selzer & Company
Suffolk University Political Research Center
Survey USA
Time/SRBI
Washington Post
World Public Opinion
Zogby International
POLL BLOGS AND SITES
Political Arithmetik
Crosstabs.org
The Polling Report
Electoral-Vote.com
R. Chung's Graphics
Prof. Wang's State Poll Meta-Analysis
Prof. Pollkatz Pool of Polls
Slate: Election Scorecard
Public Opinion Pros
Frank Newport: Gallup Guru
Carl Bialik: The Numbers Guy
Poll Positions: Kathy Frankovic
The Numbers: Gary Langer
Washington Post: Behind the Numbers
SURVEY RESEARCH ORGANIZATIONS
American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR)
The National Council on Public Polls (NCPP)
Council of American Survey Research Organizations (CASRO)
The World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR)
The Council for Marketing and Opinion Research (CMOR)
Marketing Research Association
ARCHIVES
May 11, 2008 - May 17, 2008
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April 27, 2008 - May 3, 2008
April 20, 2008 - April 26, 2008
April 13, 2008 - April 19, 2008
April 6, 2008 - April 12, 2008
March 30, 2008 - April 5, 2008
March 23, 2008 - March 29, 2008
March 16, 2008 - March 22, 2008
March 9, 2008 - March 15, 2008
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