9/10-11/08; 734 Adults, 3.7%
Obama 49, McCain 47
(August: Obama 47, McCain 45)
Sen: Coleman (R-i) 41, Franken (D) 40
No bounce this is same result as previous 2 SurveyUSA polls which were viewed almost as outliers compared to the other polls at the time.
The other MINN poll is at even, there is no possibility of this state going red.
Would like to look at the other poll internals in detail as well.
Posted on September 14, 2008 2:41 PM
Those Coleman-Franken numbers are shocking. Is that real?
Posted on September 14, 2008 2:51 PM
Al Franken has much better policies than Norm Coleman, and franken's ads are well produced, and bring the issues to light.
MN is responding.
click my name for the vids.
Posted on September 14, 2008 2:57 PM
Geesh, Obama is within the margin or error in MI, MN, WA, PA, NJ...
This isn incredible. McCain is knocking on the door in every one of theses ultra blue states.
Shhh, but the word on the street is that Congressional Candidates are starting to distance themselves from Obama as they run.
Posted on September 14, 2008 3:08 PM
I need an answer to this question.
I just thought of this. I don't know why it didn't occur to me sooner. Some states, PA for example, have a glaring difference in party affiliation, 12% Dem advantage in that case. If Rasmussen is using a weighted filter, now 5% Dem advantage over the Reps because that is the national avg. doesn't that short change the Dems by a large amount? And likewise in a red state like Utah, are they still using the filter assuming a 5% Dem advantage over the Reps?
If this is true it is a HUGE blunder in methodology!
Posted on September 14, 2008 3:10 PM
ha! the latest absurdity today from boomshak is that Michigan and Pennsylvania are "ultra-blue" states. Hm, in 2004, Kerry won Michigan by 2 points and PA by 3 points. Ultra-blue if I ever saw it. INCREDIBLE!
Posted on September 14, 2008 3:15 PM
I just read an article describing Obama's Tax Policy. It is INSANE:
Under Obama's Tax Policy, people earning over $250,000 a year (3/4 of all small businesses as they file as individuals, not corporations) will pay an effective tax rates (income + ss tax) of, now get this...56%!
Holy God. This will destroy small business in America. Why the hell should I risk my capital as a business owner when the government is taking 56% of everything I make? I am working until August just to pay Uncle Sam!
And 40% of Obama's "Middle Class Tax Break" of $1000 per family will go to PEOPLE WHO DON;T EVEN PAY TAXES ANYWAY! Yep, in other countries, they call that WELFARE.
This tax plan is madness. Instead of running commercials about lipstick on pigs, maybe McCain should run ads about THIS?
I promise you, America doesn't understand that when Obama says "I have a tax break for 95% of Americans", he means this.
C'mon McCain, grow a brain and run some ads on THIS.
Posted on September 14, 2008 3:23 PM
Considering your golden boy is on the brink of being wiped out nationwide, I am surprised you can find anything funny.
Posted on September 14, 2008 3:24 PM
I have a feeling this bounce is gonna last, i though the polls would have been tied up today. a 2 point advantage for obama in MIN. is like a 2 point advantage for Mcsame in INdiana
Posted on September 14, 2008 3:31 PM
You're not very good at te misrepresentations that you proffer.
NJ in MOE?
MI, MN, WA, PA has McCain been in front in any sigle poll including the outliers. This poll is exactly where things were last month and the month before.
McCain by his own account ignorant about Economics. Apparently so are you when I read your diatribe on Obama's tax policies.
If I felt that you were a ready audience I would explain to you supply side economics as opposed to the extension of Reaganomics in war time which is what we have had under Bush.
Our country is almost bankrupt with the entire banking system under threat of collapse.
You want more of the same, in fact MCain is claiming that he is going to double down on the Bush tax cuts, how many more dollars do you think the Chinese and Saudis are going to lend us? Print more money. the US dolar buys less and less.
Posted on September 14, 2008 3:39 PM
McCain is going to cut Soc. Security and Medicare to pay for tax cuts for the oil companies. Greenspan said we can't afford to cut taxes unless McCain cuts spending.
It isn't hard to guess who will bear the brunt of the spending cuts!
Posted on September 14, 2008 3:40 PM
yummy, very yummy indeed.
@robi, zotz, thoughtful, brambster et all
and now for the piece de resistance, non other than my personal bell weather state that is the barometer of this riptide!!!
you'll note the headline on this site "obama still favored in WI but the race is tighter"
it will fall this week as i told you it would and take with it the last semblance of victory for obama in all likelihood. but i make no predictions.
just the trend lines. how come no one else saw it coming? because you dont use yer eyeballs!!
new jersey goes next. NEW JOISEY GOES NEXT!!!
i shudder to think that obama for all his money and advisers and gimmicks like the 3am veep announcement could only win three states: NY,Illinois and Iowa. eez possible and looking more so. forgot one more, havaii. that's four.
this is why i have asked you obamites many times to consider what you will say and do when mccain legitimately takes this country?
i would suggest an answer if i may.
it's not about racism or sexism or any of the above. it's about a systemic flow away from our primeval two party system.
the two party system is basically over. when the candidate of one party announces at the convention he's gonna give them the finger, it's the death blow to the out dated and dysfunctional system.
you may think that obama had youth, the internet and harvard on his side. but what he has lacked is a voting record that disproved partisanship.
in the end, the country is shifting away from this ugly habit. we have bush to thank for polarizing and pelosi for putting the nail in the coffin..
and oddly, bush in his final six months seems to get the picture:he is more interested in the welfare of this country/cum personal legacy than whatever on earth the old republican party really means anymore.
the dems have misread their demo stats because they have missed the zeitgeist.
so this time around we are choosing the president who is above the party and freest to maneuver away. he may be old, he may not use the web or text but age frees him from fear and restraints. he has less to lose and more
agility to turn on a dime than a 47 year old chicago machine pol.
yup, with less time on this earth he has less to lose by simply being honest and calling it as he sees it/ in fact, this is his personal legacy.
add to that one thing no other candidate has had: fearlessness. true fearlessness. what personal affront could really bother him? do you think words could hurt him after the words already used in hanoi and here?
do you think physical affronts could frighten him like cancer or paralysis? he's been there... NEXT!!
he's not scared of death and as such, he has more to give us from his emotional generosity.
nothing to fear. in that tiny hole for five years with his bones broken, do you honestly think that judgement is something he shies from or fears?
obama through the enormous convulsed tentacles of his corporate campaign, a structure of leviathan dimension and complexity tho run by others, is woefully tied to it. he drags them on his feet like lead ball and chains.
he parses, measures, and harumphs because he has mastered the concept:CAUTIOUS.
i suggest that that obama might lose for this very reason, that the very thing that seemed most remarkable about his grass roots campaign has so transmogrified that he cannot move without sifting through all the brilliant minds, including his so called own.
though if he were we'd have seen his acedemic records by now. n'est-ce pas? i mean i am always willing to show mine :>)
this increasing dependence augurs poorly for a leader to make fearless choices because he has lost his mental agility and even clarity.
obama is a dead weight of crafty positioning and posturing such that he cannot offer america what we want most: to vote the man not the party any longer.
Posted on September 14, 2008 3:42 PM
sorry guys, i accidentally hit an old pin.
but you can guess who it is.
Posted on September 14, 2008 3:43 PM
Try shorter posts!
Posted on September 14, 2008 3:45 PM
how's this one!!!
Posted on September 14, 2008 3:47 PM
1. What is the article about Obama's tax policy that you mention?
2. Who are the people who, in your words, "DO NOT PAY TAXES ANYWAY!" You mean that they don't pay income tax, correct? You don't mean that they don't pay payroll tax or sales taxes?
Posted on September 14, 2008 3:51 PM
Here it is. Good read:
Posted on September 14, 2008 3:56 PM
obama stands to lose now by a landslide.
it is not because america hates the idea of a black president, the ratings for 24 and obama's celebrity give the lie to this.
what we owe to this man who i believe has grown on the campaign trail, is having been the first black man to give it a helluva go.
but as the remarkably intelligent turkana stated above, (:>} this country is changing beneath its permafrost layers.
PR geniuses aside, legal parsing and the like hasmissed the zeitgeist: the two party system is breathing its last.
when the republican candidate makes a platform
stand to shove it up the ass of his own party
then you can bet the times they are a changin'
for all his age and digital flatfootedness, he has shown to be the one more n touch with the times and more unencumbered by loyalty and ambition to cut loose.
how's that one thoughtful? better?
Posted on September 14, 2008 3:57 PM
"Change" is not a destination.
Obama's definition of change is, "Out of the frying pan an into the fire..."
Posted on September 14, 2008 3:58 PM
On a lighter note, this is just funny:
"On Sunday, a campaign adviser confirmed that Ms. Palin had, indeed, watched the “Saturday Night Live” skit from her screen at the front of the plane. “She thought it was quite funny,” the adviser said in an email response to inquiries, “especially because the governor has dressed up as Tina Fey for Halloween.”
You sound like someone on drugs.
What is it? Pain meds and vodka? Don't take too much! We want you around to hear President Obama's inaugural address!
Posted on September 14, 2008 4:00 PM
Lets stick to the Mid west and West battleground.
Lets stick to Ageism vs Racism negatives indeed Bradley Effects
Lets stick to there is a core right of centre American electorate.
Can we agree that with The Palin pick and who McCain has surrounded himself with; that he is now to the right of Bush/Cheney?
Can we agree that Obama is a liberal trying to wear moderate's clothing.
Can we agree that the Country is polarized and have cotton on to an effective Democratically controlled Congress?
Posted on September 14, 2008 4:01 PM
"In the wake of Sarah Palin, John McCain has opened up a 15-point lead among independents, according to a new Gallup Poll — and Barack Obama has a real problem.
Since the GOP convention and his selection of the Alaska governor as his running mate, McCain has changed a months-long tie among independents into a 52 to 37 percent advantage. Support for McCain among self-described "conservative Democrats" has jumped 10 points, to 25 percent, signaling the shift among swing voters to McCain."
So my question is this, how the heck can McCain have a 15 point lead amongst Independents and be getting 25% of Conservative Democrats and only be 2 points ahead?
What the hell kind of sample is Gallup using?
Posted on September 14, 2008 4:03 PM
Where you and I differ is I see McCain as being a prisoner of the extreme right. In most respects other than wanting to have a war even more readily than Bush he's offering the same.
Posted on September 14, 2008 4:04 PM
Attention: the two B's
(I mean the two posters here starting with B)
National trend ain't pink no mo' so sorry!
Posted on September 14, 2008 4:06 PM
"For polling data released during the week of September 14-20, 2008, the targets are 38.7% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. For the previous week, the targets were 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated" Rasmussen
I reckon that this means 3.2% extra in McCain polling today from August 31 polling.
Posted on September 14, 2008 4:12 PM
to all your questions: no, no and no!!!
pull your head up and read this from above not below.
this is about bi-partite burn out and nothing else.
i have based everything i have said on this blog on this premise and been virtually the only one to call it correctly.
the palin pick was part of that. she is not mccain, practically the opposite. but per her gibson interview, clearly able to see to the other side and not inject ideology into her political stance.
obama and company has read the wrong tea leaves, i think he read the marijuana leaves instead.
the country is voting the man, not the party and the one whose biography most clearly says:
the republicans and ems are as old as the hills.
democracy can make it without this. sure it's something poly sci courses never study becaus ethere is no precedent.
but we have always led the charge when it comes to freedom, even as we keep trying to get our hands around the slippery concept.
nope, the two party system is over and it is the old gentleman who best understands this.
not ageism versus racism versus sexism. it is
a bold thrust to get back to the original concept without all the clutter.
Posted on September 14, 2008 4:13 PM
Don't focus on national polls. The state polls are what counts.
Posted on September 14, 2008 4:16 PM
I already told you this once, but i will tell you again.
The NEW party affiliation model from Rasmussen will NOT be put into effect until the 14th (i.e., today). So today's 3% point lead is based on the 11th through the 13th and reflects the old sample.
It will be 3 more days before we see the news sample totally reflected in the poll.
Posted on September 14, 2008 4:19 PM
obama is hooting and hollering about invading pakistan and afghanistan to get the little **** bin laden.
this is called war mongering by any name.
only this past month has bush given the green light to make a tactical incursion into aghanistan to get the little gutter snipe.
this is information that has been tamped down. his reluctant hand to affect collateral damage and to endanger the new gov of karzai held his fire.
i suggest you read up on this, please.
the same holds for pakistan.\
so please, at least be clear headed here and understand that obama is the one who will bring us to imbroglios that will never resolve.
Posted on September 14, 2008 4:21 PM
What a heroic speech! hooray for boskop! (it's gotta be coke!)
all that effusive verbiage in order to get tax cuts for the oil companies?
hmmmmm... not exactly Churchillian is it?
Posted on September 14, 2008 4:22 PM
I would agree with some of the other posters that this poll, along with the Strib poll, are way off. I would guess that Obama is still 5-10 points ahead in MN. I live in MN and I can tell everyone that there is no way that McCain will take the state. I live in Minneapolis AND in Northfield (which is a small town), and I have seen virtually no evidence of support for McCain. The state has been shifting dramatically back to the left--so much so that the Democrats may gain supra-majorities in the state legislatures. I would advise Obama to not waste a lot of time and money in MN, like Kerry did in 2004. Obama and McCain would be wise to focus on CO, NH, MI, OH, and VA.
Posted on September 14, 2008 4:24 PM
Read plain English "For polling data released during the week of September 14-20" RELEASED
Having spent a year of my life on both sides of the Afghan and Pakistan borders from Baluchistan in the South to Kafiristan/Nuristan in the North: Obama frightens the hell out of me. But the job has to be done in surgically removing Al Qaeda. The Taliban is a different proposition.
At the moment the Bush Administration belatedly are making an all out effort to get OBL and cohorts.
Better to Buy the Taliban after eliminating Al Qaeda.
Posted on September 14, 2008 4:33 PM
Uhhhh... Forget what I said about Nat. polls
(I'll take any good news I can get!)
Obama leads in two tracking polls!
Posted on September 14, 2008 4:51 PM
Lol, Ok, can we just agree to completely reject the UTTERLY REDICULOUS Hotline tracking poll? The thing jumps 3 points either way every day. Here is the text from today's poll:
"Today's Diageo/Hotline poll shows Obama-Biden leading McCain-Palin 45% to 43%. Yesterday, McCain-Palin were leading 45% to 44%.
One likely reason for the swing: men. In yesterday's poll, McCain was leading among men by 12 pts. Today, it's just 4 pts. Meanwhile, Obama's advantage among women has remained consistent over the last three polls ranging between 8 and 9 pts."
So we are supposed to believe, that while Rasmussen and Gallup remain level, Hotline sees Mccain losing 8 FRIGGIN POINTS among men in one day!!!!???
Sorry, that's just laughable.
Also, the DailyKos Poll continues to give Democrats a 9 point sampling advantage. Again, trash-bin worthy.
Posted on September 14, 2008 4:52 PM
Ok, ok, I'm sorry, this is just too funny. Here is the sample from the Hotline Poll:
Party ID breakdown for the 904 RV sample is 43%D, 34%R, 20%I.
DailyKos also bloats the Dem sample. They should be ashamed.
Posted on September 14, 2008 4:59 PM
"Hotline sees Mccain losing 8 FRIGGIN POINTS among men in one day!!!!???"
Who do you think is going to have to fight Palin's war with Russia? Why would men want to have Palin telling them to go to war in order to defend Uzbeks or Georgians or whatever?
If we take the Ras numbers on the pre-
September 1 ID weighting Obama would be 1% up with Rasmussen as well.
The Truth is that Either way you slice it or dice in the National Polls this is a statistical tie.
We have to look at the States polls internals and compare against the 2004 exits. Then factor in known demographic changes into our model.
Posted on September 14, 2008 5:00 PM
No offense, but are you friggin stupid? I have explained 2 times now (this is the third) that TODAY'S RASMUSSEN NUMBERS DO NOT REFLECT THE NEW WEIGHTING. THEY DO NO DO NOT DO NOT. Whay the hell do you keep saying they do?
Posted on September 14, 2008 5:04 PM
The purpose of these polls with the crazy lopsides samples is so that MSNBC and their ilk can report that Obama is winning.
I got $100 says not a single MSM outlet that announces these numbers states the sample used.
Posted on September 14, 2008 5:08 PM
Read plain English from thre RASMUSSEN site: "For polling data RELEASED during the week of September 14-20" What's the date today?
F O with your misrepresentations your just like your political masters!
Posted on September 14, 2008 5:13 PM
I honestly don't like Rasmussen since they are way to close to the Republican party. In addition, Scott Rasmussen himself has being a big supporter of Sarah Palin to be on McCain's ticket. I prefer Gallup tracking poll. About the Hotline poll I have no opinion, for I don't know anything about it.
I think that things are starting to settle down and the race is going back to "normal," which is predictable since convention bounces are pretty much a moment's reaction. Now, I think that the debates will be the next big event, so let's see how things turn out for all candidates.
Posted on September 14, 2008 5:16 PM
Lets see if I called it: If the numbers trend the same way in the other polls...which is the McCain/Palin ticket begin to bleed men...especially after that ingeniuos interview on Gibson... if there was "sexism" in the primaries against Hillary.. and she was actually qualified to be president...you aint seen nothing yet.. at least men now have a reason not to vote for her... this isnt american idol
Posted on September 14, 2008 5:19 PM
Two polls showing MN close--it probably is, as it usually is. Both campaigns seem to have internal numbers indicating a close race there, as they are both on the air in MN. See:
McCain has the benefit of having had his recent convention in MN. Also, these polls were both taken last week, during McCain's bounce. State polls in the coming days will indicate whether or not McCain's bounce is here to stay (at least until the first debate).
The SUSA poll has Obama ahead by only 6 points in the Twin Cities area. Perhaps the location of McCain's convention is helping him keep the numbers close there. SUSA has Obama up 16 with ages 18-34.
Curiously, the Star Tribune poll has Obama and McCain running about even among this same age group. Here is the difference in the two polls.
From the poll's narrative: "The poll contains a bright spot for Obama -- his support among likely voters is more solid than McCain's. Seventy percent of those supporting the Obama-Biden ticket describe their support as strong, compared with the 59 percent of McCain-Palin backers."
Posted on September 14, 2008 5:27 PM
I really don't know what to make about the idea of men moving away from Palin. I really find it hard to believe it because men in general, especially white men, tend to be Republican. However, I've been watching gallup daily tracking, and it shows McCain's previous 5% lead reduced to a 2% lead, indeed Obama moved up from 43% to 45% and McCain moved down from 49% to 47%. Obviously some people who were previously with McCain are leaving him at the moment, and some people who had previously left Obama are coming back. Who are those groups? We have to wait for the next demographic and party analysis from gallup tracking. Could it be men? No idea guys.
Posted on September 14, 2008 5:29 PM
I didn't realize that Frankin was so close to Coleman. Maybe that's always been the case and I just got the impression that Frankin was in trouble by reading fring ranting from instapundit and the like.
Posted on September 14, 2008 5:34 PM
I've ranted enough about SurveyUSA and InsiderAdvantage. They have terrible ratio control and weighting algorithms.
As much as we might like to think otherwise, Minn will NOT turn red.
The only prayer is a flub in the debates.
Posted on September 14, 2008 5:43 PM
Barack Obama's tax plan gives a tax break to any tax payer who makes below 250,000 per year. Barack Obama will give tax incentives to small business owners and big corporations to keep jobs here in our own country.
Barack Obama's tax plan is a big change from the tax plan of McCain and Bush. McCain and Bush give tax breaks only to the richest of Americans who make over 250,000 per year. Under McCain's tax plan the middle class bear the largest tax burden.
McCain and Palin are the exact same as Bush and Cheney in their economic policies and their policies on the war in Iraq.
Barack Obama and Joe Biden will work hard to help the middle class and the working poor. I don't want 4 more years of Bush and Cheney.
VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!
Posted on September 15, 2008 10:25 AM
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