10/16-18/08; 655 LV, 3.9%
Obama 50, McCain 44
Sen: Coleman (R-i) 41, Franken (D) 39, Barkley (I) 18
Nice. Last Survey USA poll in MN had McShame up by 1.
The race is tightening!!!
Posted on October 20, 2008 9:53 AM
This would be a good result for McCain if it was from any other pollster, but from SurveyUSA, it's good for Obama.
The last SurveyUSA poll of MN had McCain +1 while other polls taken around the same time (beginning of October) had Obama ahead by double digts.
So this actually represents a gain of 7 points for Obama over the last three weeks.
Posted on October 20, 2008 9:54 AM
Yeah, this one looks a lot closer than any other MN polls of the race released recently until you realize that this is the first time SurveyUSA has shown Obama up in this state since the GOP convention. This one represents a 4pt improvement for Obama and a 3pt loss for McCain.
Posted on October 20, 2008 9:55 AM
Where did you find that?
The margin of victory in MN will come down to the GOTV effort. Typically upwards of 20% register and vote on the same day of Presidential elections in that state.
Posted on October 20, 2008 9:57 AM
RCP.com has the old Survey USA poll...
Posted on October 20, 2008 10:01 AM
Rasmussen Poll Schedule for the Day:
At noon Eastern today, new Presidential polling data will be released from Virginia. At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new results will be released for Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Posted on October 20, 2008 10:02 AM
Wow this Senate race is coming down to the wire. Seems like every other poll Franken and Coleman switch positions, with Barkley staying in the mix.
I wonder what the ground game looks like in MN these days.
Posted on October 20, 2008 10:03 AM
Minnesota is out of reach for GOP as is PA and WI and IA and Michigan. McCain must defend OH (which may mean nominally sticking with PA) & FA but even that might not be enough.
Posted on October 20, 2008 10:10 AM
Interesting internals in this poll. The grey hairs predominately favors Obama, while the younger crowd is leaning McCain's way. I have heard this is the trend in HHH's state, but haven't seen anything concrete until this. Don't think this is enough of a trend to sent MN over to the GOP, but does not bode well for the dem future here.
Posted on October 20, 2008 10:17 AM
Not sure I see the point of any longer campainging in the rust belt & MN. As someone noted above, I could see advertising in Pitt and Johnstown to help sway voters in eastern Ohio, but other than that it is looking like a lost cause.
Posted on October 20, 2008 10:20 AM
How is MN not dark blue??? Sigh.
Posted on October 20, 2008 10:23 AM
What's with survey USA?! Every other MN poll has Obama up by 10 or more.
ARG has Obama only up by 1! Both polls show Obama trailing among the younger crowd, whereas other pollster do not. Interesting results.
Posted on October 20, 2008 11:00 AM
Maybe this is the "home phone" effect at play here. If one goes to that article by Mark on the difference b/w political choice between young cell-phone only vs. land-phone only users...there were significant differences.
Maybe this effect is showing up here with the automated polls.
Posted on October 20, 2008 11:15 AM
SUSA does robo-polling and robocalls to cellphones are illegal in MN. That's why SUSA is missing a huge number of young voters, who in the other MN polls are breaking strongly for Obama, same as everywhere else. (For the same reason, SUSA probably understates Franken's vote by several points). The idea that McCain is leading among young voters in MN is pure insanity. I live there and work on a college campus, and my daughters have ltos of voting-age friends. The campuses and broader youth vote are overwhelmingly and enthusiastically pro-Obama, except for pockets of conservative Christian youth who do not comprise anything close to a majority.
Obama has a huge ground game in MN with volunteers now numbering literally in the tens of thousands. Voter registration is at an all-time high, with most of the new registrations coming in heavily Dem areas. The Secretary of State is predicting voter turnout of 80%, which may seem ridiculously high until you realize that with same-day registration MN regularly hits 70% and there's far more interest in this race, and a far more active, energetic, and comprehensive Obama field operation than Kerry had in 2004. I think Obama will win by 8 to 10 points with overwhelming turnout and overwhelming margins in Minneapolis and St. Paul, sweeping Franken in on his coattails. Neither Coleman nor Franken has a field operation of their own; all the energy and volunteers are in the presidential race, mostly on the Democratic side.
Posted on October 20, 2008 11:37 AM
SUSA continues with strange internals in MN. I'm pretty sure they are missing the cellphone only voters, which is why McCain appears to be doing better with younger voters. SUSA shows Obama +13 among under 35. Compare to Gallup national numbers (which include calling cellphones) where Obama is +34 among under 30 voters.
Kerry won MN by 3 points, so if Obama is ahead nationally by 5-6 then he will probably win MN by at least 8-9 points. StarTribune poll yesterday which typically has a mild Dem lean showed Obama +11.
If national polls close to a draw, Obama still wins MN (along with all Kerry states +IA +NM) and needs to flip only VA or CO to get over 269. McCain is still at a very bad disadvantage in electoral college. McCain probably needs to win popular vote by 1-2 points in order to win in Electoral College. McCain may get close enough to hold OH, FL, NC but that won't be enough to win this year.
Posted on October 20, 2008 11:39 AM
Rasmussen today has VA as
Posted on October 20, 2008 12:11 PM
(Above VA in field 10/16).
Also, Suffolk, Oct. 16/17-19:
Ohio: O 51, M 42
MO: M 45, O 44
Posted on October 20, 2008 12:27 PM
People please read other posts before posting same poll results.
Posted on October 20, 2008 12:54 PM
Very Interesting...even if the youth vote internals are messed up its still a 6 pt lead from SUSA
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:46 PM
Another survey that is unreliable. Good idea to rule out any poll whose MOE is greater than 3%.....
Posted on October 23, 2008 11:10 AM
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