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MN: Obama 52, McCain 41 (StarTrib-10/16-17)

Topics: PHome

Star Tribune / PSRA
10/16-17/08 - 1,049 LV, 3.8%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Minnesota
Obama 52, McCain 41

 

Comments
joethedummer:

LIGHTS OUT!

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Dave:

what about Franken?

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MNlatteliberal:

This poll came out in the morning and was posted back in the national Ras poll thread this AM. There is nothing to see here: MN is safely blue. IA is safely flipped blue. MI, WI and all the other Kerry states are blue.

McCain is turning blue.

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billwy:

So McCain's only chance at this point is holding on to the Bush states minus IA and NM...pretty slim chances.

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MNlatteliberal:

Dave,
It's a very tight race between Franken and Coleman. Because of all the negative ads, a lot of folks (% in the teens) are turning to Dean Barkley, the Independent. You really get a flavor for that canvasing MN for DFL. There is a sizable portion of independents, republicans, dems and undecideds who are voting straight party line tickets with the exception of the Senate race, where they are going Barkley.

Same is beginning to happen on the R side for El Tinklenberg after Bachmann's appearance on Hardball last Friday. We got a lot of R's who are NOT voting for B today! YEAH!

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orange24:

Clearly, McCain has targeted PA as a state he can flip - all evidence to the contrary. He has a lot better chance of turning VA and MO back red and then spending a awful lot of resources in CO and NV to try to get those to come back. I suppose you could make the argument that if he does get PA to flip, then that cancels out losing NV and CO. He's just flailing at whatever he can right now. I hope he continues to waste all of his time and money in PA while VA, NC, MO, CO, NV, and WV go blue.

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WOW! RCP poll of polls from Nobama + 8.2 to + 5 in just 4 days.

As all of you experts on the left know..State polls always follow national trends.

Hide your razor blades. Obama peaked on the 14th. McCains drumbeat of Joe, Socialism and the 3-headed monster(Pelosi, Reid and Nobama) will resonate. Dead even before election day.

You should have saved your money.

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cinnamonape:

CNN apparently has some new polls in the works that corroborate the MN and WI results here. They also show Obama has gone up in OHIO, but obviously within the MOE.

"New CNN poll of polls in three swing states — Ohio, Wisconsin, and Minnesota — show the Illinois senator with a lead, while a new poll in West Virginia puts John McCain ahead.

In Ohio, the latest CNN poll of polls shows Obama with a 1 point lead over McCain, 47 to 46 percent while the Illinois senator has a 13 point lead in a Wisconsin poll of polls and a 8 point lead in a Minnesota poll of polls."

Sadly I can't find the actual data.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/19/state-polls-show-obama-with-advantage-in-key-battlegrounds/

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Indiana4Obama:

Plumber,

Obama's campaign has been run to perfection...today you get the Colin Powell endorsement on the even of Obama going to Florida for a couple of days. Next week you get a prime time slot for Obama that Mccain can't afford to match. And with 150 million in the bank Obama is putting 5 million on the ground in...West Virginia.

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straight talk:

McCain is toast! Hillary and Barack Campaign are blitzing the sunshine state of florida this Wk! National polls r showin that Obama has retained his lead! Remember when Gallup had obama by 10+ among rv. The state polls shifted unanimously into his corner. And Obama is at 10 in The gallup rv sampling. Folks this is going to be a landslide. Never have a republican run so poorly in red states. And national does not matter now. It is about the state polls and who has the better ground game. In which both cases Obama!

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HillaryForMcCain:

To my fellow dems that supported Hillary:

An Obama victory will be an end to Hillary's chances for becoming President. Never forget how we were treated by his campaign. If McCain wins, there is no way we can lose in 4 years. We will win every state...guaranteed.

As difficult as it may be, please vote for McCain. I have heard from many in the party that Hillary will continue to voice support for Obama but we must realize this is what she has to do. Hillary will serve our party much better in the long run. Obama will be a disaster and guarantee Republicon control for years to come.

We've waited 8.. We can wait 4 more.

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maddiekat:

HillaryforMcCain

Your sick!!

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DTM:

What happened today in the RCP average is that they dropped off the last of the non-tracker national polls (for whatever reason, the last non-tracker polls ended 10/13). That may or may not matter--we'll see when the next round of non-trackers comes out--but it is hard to be too confident about trends in the averages when the poll mix is shifting to that degree.

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HillaryForMcCain:

@maddiekat:

There are more of us than you think. Just a bit if inside information. Many in our circles have agreed to show a face for Obama but will definately vote McCain on election day. Your polls are skewed. You will be shocked on election day.

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cinnamonape:

Boy the Republicans are getting very desperate, aren't they.

Well I think that this shows precisely why.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

As on can see Obama is rapidly moving to deep blue in almost all the necessary states to win 277 EV's. That means he could lose EVERY "battleground state" (Yellow) and still win.

McCain HAS TO win a Blue State with move than 7 EV's and all those other states in order to even TIE. That's why he has to win PA (21 EV's). Without it all the other States are useless. But it's going to take resources from those other States...and he hopes that he can hang on to enough of them and win Pennsylvania to balance of some small losses in EV in those (13 EV's max).

It's a big gamble on a very long shot.

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straight talk:

News Flash to all Hillary supporters! Who Cares! It is about McCain and OBama now! Hillary is on the Campaign trail now supporting Obama! And she annoucned on fox news that she did not intend to run again. Which is good because everyone knows that OBama is going be in the White House for 8yrs! I think she will be an great asset on health care iniatives.

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HillaryForMcCain:

BTW... It's "you're sick" not "your sick"

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1magine:

MY GOD _ I think Joe may be onto something - - JOE _ _ QUICK LOOK AT THIS GALLUP TRACKER going back to June to today:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Gallup-Daily-Election-2008.aspx

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HillaryForMcCain:

@straight talk:

HA HA HA HA! You really think Hillary has hung it up. It is her destiny and I will support her to the end. Obama will fail if elected and we will be forced to deal with another idiot repblican for 8+ years

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Kile Thomson:

lol@ fake Hilary supporter

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Traynor84:

HillaryforMcCain:

No thanks. I'd rather keep at least a couple moderates on the Supreme Court.

I understand what you're saying. I didn't support Clinton in the primaries, but I might have been upset if my person had lost too.

Here's the deal though. I don't think our economy, military, students, seniors, etc can take another four years of Republican rule.

If the Republicans win this election, they'll wash the Supreme Court the rest of the way with far right Justices. I'm a man, not a woman, so I'm not worried about my reproductive rights... nobody has ever told me I can't get a vasectamy if I choose to or something... but if you truly support progressive ideals, I really think you should consider what you're saying here.

Now, if in fact you are anti-choice, don't believe in the seperation of church and state, like the patriot act, like the war in Iraq, and think we should "bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran", then vote for McCain. But I've been canvassing, phone banking, registering voters for (not with Acorn... hehe), and donating to Obama since last spring, and I can promise you Obama will win this election. We aren't giving up, and when Obama wins he can work to see that the things all Democrats (including Hillary) want to see accomplished will be.

I respect your opinion though, and suggest you move to a state like New York or California before election day so I don't have to worry about your guy winning. ^^

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JoeThePlumber:

GO HillaryForMcCain!

Keeping skewing those polls baby. We'll trade you 4 years of McCain for 8 of Hillary just please NOBAMA!

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MNlatteliberal:

@Hillary4McCain,
you are pretty funny and pretty desperate at the same time. your timing, however, is way off. it's kind of like palin delivering a joke. somebody wrote it for her, but she just cannot deliver the funny, no matter what. it's just not in her bones.

same with you.

you ought to have waited for this troll until tomorrow night when there are more people reading: you'd have a better chance of getting a rise out of a couple passionate dems. sunday night, however, is different matter. there is nobody here but us chickens. and by tomorrow your material will be as stale as...i dunno...alankeys? lmao.

but, i give you a point for creativity, despite the ****ty timing. too quick on the release. not gonna work. keep trying.

hey, how 'bout "powell for obama"?

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maddiekat:

Hillary for McCain

Your circle could fit inside a hula hoop.

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HillaryForMcCain:

@Traynor84:

Thank you for your civil comments.

@maddiekat:

Dream away. You will be shocked on election day.

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1magine:

iF YOU HAVEN'T SEEN IT YET:

This is the picture Colin Powell was talking about:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/19/colin-powell-invokes-imag_n_135977.html

I can not express how deeply I am moved or how small it made me feel. Lest we forget - the deep and abiding Love of Country does not just reside in churches or temples, but in mosques, homes and in the hearts of Americans of every color and faith and political party. Lest we forget - we have REAL ENEMIES and no need to demonize each other.

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Pat:

@HillaryForMcCain

It is obvious you are a fake Hillary supporter. I am sure you are a desperate rightwingnut.

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HillaryForMcCain:

@MNlattelib

Who is Powell? He is a washed up has been that has no credibility.(Remember the WMD speech at the UN)

Surprise! An African-American endorsing and African American.

Changes nada.

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MNlatteliberal:

JTPlumber:

. We'll trade you 4 years of McCain for 8 of Hillary

I love this: fake Joe Plumber trading futures with fake Hillary. It's a virtual ersatz-off!

What we need is an in-troll, a pollster equivalent of in-trade for trolls.

btw and fwiw, on the real in-trade, O is +0.8 and M is down another 0.5. Otherwise holding steady at 85/15. Pretty funny. Esp. that idiot "institutional investor" who tried to move the planks for mccain last friday. i wonder how much he lost. lol

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cinnamonape:

Actually Maddie Cat was referring to your post

"Your sick" i.e. "Your vomit"...pretty much what would be expected from a desperate Limbaugh-McCain supporter.

We all recall how Limbaugh fueled the PUMA-movement, and tried to create a "Day of Rage" at the Democratic convention. You guys are so transparent that it's absurd.

Sorry, after McCain brought extreme pro-Lifer Palin on the ticket as a stealth participant, and he "dittoed" "Womens' Health" as a criteria for abortion in the last debate...we know exactly what electing McCain would mean.

Yes, that and his demeaning of Lily Ledbetter's claims for fair pay after decades of discrimination.

A minimum of two Supreme Court justices are coming up...and waiting four years is simply not an option. And Obama's policies are almost identical to Clinton's, and would have to be negotiated through the current financial crisis anyways. But as Obama has stated Health Care reform is his #1 priority.

And then all we have to do is consider the two candidates positions on Medicare, Social Security (McCain would put it in the stock market ~ thus bankrupting the system in about 5 years), taxation, regulation, energy policy, labor policy, etc.

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MNlatteliberal:

HillaryForMcCain:

"@MNlattelib

Who is Powell?"

i dunno. i am just making up words out of letters. is powell even a word?

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masselo:

@ Hillaryformaccain --- get the F*** out here with this BS- ok -- Go find something better to do

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maddiekat:

Don't feed the troll..

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Traynor84:

It's so nice to be on here and not have to see AlanKeyes' comments and stuff. Wouldn't it be great if he decided to go spam Fox News from now on? I know, we aren't that lucky, but wouldn't it be great?

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Pat:

@HillaryForMcCain,

Can you say President Obama? Try practicing at home because in two weeks you will to deal with that reality.

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HillaryForMcCain:

@Massello:

I love you!

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Napoleon Complex:

@Traynor84

I think AlanKeyes is what happens when boomshak starts hearing the "other" voices in his head.

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MNlatteliberal:

Traynor,
I don't know. After a day of having to be nice to voters while canvassing, I can sure use a distraction that alankeys, hillaries and boomshacks provide. in real life with undecideds we are not supposed to use negatives for persuasion, but here, i can unleash of all it.

also, i don't know how long you've been reading pollster, but over the last month you can actually chart the level of the desperation on the right by the increasing absurdity of their trolls here. i (and a bunch of other liberals here) take that as a great sign. things are going well, the wingnuts are starting to squirm. put more coal on the fire.

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cinnamonape:

In fact "Fake Joe" and "Hillaryfor McCain" are probably a single hermaphroditic self-reproducing plant.

I wonder why people who have no interest in the polls actually would visit here.

"Don't believe in the scores of polls because millions of Hillary for McCain supporters are lying that they support Obama when they actually are going to vote for McCain". Why would these so-called Hillary supporters even do this? Wouldn't they tell the pollsters right off? Why even take the chance of tempting others over to the "Obama side"?

If they really wanted McCain to win...and wanted to indicate that Obama wasn't winning over Hillary supporters you'd think they'd be telling the pollsters -and a large number of Democratic females would end up being in the McCain column? That would really signal to the Democrats that they blew it in the primaries.

But if they are going to lie to the pollsters there is actually no way to determine WHO swung to McCain. It could be Edwards supporters, or Jews, or even African Americans. Or maybe a surge of Bible Thumpers that came out in massive numbers?

Why lie about supporting Obama? It's not like the pollsters are going to report you as a PUMA!

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Traynor84:

Oh, I've been on every day for at least three months... and I agree, I can see desperation, I just want to get too comfortable. I remember thinking Gore would win... then thinking Kerry would win... I just want people to remember they need to get to work out that, and it's awesome that you've been canvassing, because it DOES make a differnce. I've worked in state politics and watched the difference canvassing can make...

I also understand wanting to get the anger out, I don't think many undecideds are chilling at pollster reading what we all have to say, so I don't see you hurting the campaign or anything. I just think we should all take eachother with a grain of salt on here. Some of the statements I read on here... well, I just can't take them seriously. lol.

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JoeThePlumber:

Time for bed. I have a long 2 weeks of campaigning to do. You dems keep talking to each other. That's what you do best and why you are all delusional. I love the "everyone I know is voting for Obama." That is because you have surrounded yourself with Morons.

November 5th is going to be so freaking hilarious:

1. Lower registration than expected for Obama (Thank you Acorn)
2. Motivated Palin supported (new voters mind you)
3. Hillary supporters still pissed at the primaries.
4. Quiet racisim
5. Over confident Obamabots
6. Joe the Plumber (Thank you)
7. Ed the Farmer (Oh, you will hear about this one soon)
8. Anti-socialism onslaught
9. Peaking on election day and not on October 14th.

Hide your razorblades now!

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That One:

I’m an independent voting for Obama and here’s why:

I consider myself to be philosophically a libertarian who believes in small government because I believe people are naturally good and will do good things on their own. However, I don’t believe in a lazy and stupid government. Government can be small and still be smart, active, and strategic. This is something some small-government Republicans don’t seem to grasp. George W. Bush (and his administration) epitomizes this when it comes to economic policy and other critical issues. A government needs be lean and mean. Americans, especially those on the right, need to wake up to this.

If Obama is nothing else he is smart, active, and strategic. Even if you disagree with his policies you have to admit that much is true. He surely is no champion of small government. But, I’d rather have a big, smart, strategic government than a slightly-smaller government that has no interest and no idea how to solve the long term challenges this country faces. We need to realize that our economy is fundamentally out-of-balance as we import too much, our national debt is ballooning, and the vast majority of people are not prospering economically. We need to realize that our energy policy is a complete joke and that we’re going to have to transition to a off of oil before “peak oil” kills our economy and way of life. We need to begin thinking about how we can prevent disease and famine in a world with an increasing population that is being raped of it’s ecologically resources. The list goes on.

Do you know why a lot of republicans don’t believe in that our economy is fundamentally flawed? Do you know why many republicans don’t believe that oil scarcity is a problem? Do you know why many republicans don’t believe that environment is being savaged? I’ll tell you why. It’s because they believe that they’re conservative ideological beliefs, which are sensible in and of themselves, are the answer for everything. Think about how insane that is. They are so in love with these principles that they think any problem that cannot be solved by their principles must not exist. So, instead of working on solving the monumental issues stated previously, they’re working to eliminate the “estate tax” and keeping millionaires tax rate from going up a few percentage points. They’re trying to ban gay marriage and abortions. They want to extract the remaining oil we have left as quickly as possible. I’m not saying these are necessarily bad pursuits, but we’ve got WAY more important things to do. We used to deal with our major issues head-on. Somehow a large portion of our government stopped trying and turned to denial.

Does the size of government need to shrink? Yes. Will Obama shrink the size of government? No. BUT THIS IS NOT HIS MISSION. His mission is to get us to start thinking strategically, and to begin the process of solving some of these long term issues. Shrinking the government, while necessary, is incredibly difficult and will be a short term negative on our economy and our standard of living. (Although I do believe it will benefit us long term.) He won’t be able to do both at once. No one can. Let the next guy worry about shrinking the government. We have more pressing issues to deal with.

Is Obama going to solve all these problems? No. Are the Democrats as petty and political as the Republicans? Yes. But, I believe Obama is going to wake some people up. He’s going to get the conversation back to the important topics. He’s going to come up with some ideas and force the republicans to start coming up with their own. This is what we need – ideas and action from all sides. That’s what being a smart, strategic government and country is all about. Let’s make it happen.

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Traynor84:

Wow... my last post was full of typos. Sorry about that... was on the phone. >.>

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Romney For OBAMA!:

I have supported Mitt Romney for many years now, and I just cannot bring myself to support McCain. His disgraceful tactics are tearing this country in two. The choice of Sarah Palin makes me really sad. Not only because my man should have been the choice, but because Palin is really stupid. McCain is Old. He is ANGRY. This country needs a real leader, and someone that can bring about the change we need. That is why I am supporting Barack Obama. He will lead this country to greatness once again. In 8 years we can then elect Romney, but for now we must all come together and defeat McCain. Joe the Plummer told me that's what we should do.

;)

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Traynor84:

Good post That One ^^

I agree word for word.

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laguna_b:

The sad thing is that these dorks for Mccain will be completely absent Nov. 5th when we ask them why Obama won....must be hell seeing the inevitable from your outdoor couch at your trailer.....at least you didn't lose anything in the stock market.....

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Traynor84:

I think "Romney for Obama" might be the reverse PUMA's. Looks like HillaryforMcCain or w/e's vote will be offset by Romney supporters.

And Romney, if you give us 8 years of Obama, I'll still vote against Romney... and I'll try to remember this so I won't get too upset. lol.

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BOOMFAIL:

@laguna_b
LMAO!

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joethedummer:

alan comes out when mccsame has a bad day and boomscrack comes out when the polls look better.

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wjbill49:

too much trolling here anymore

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That One:

Sorry for the essay. I'm living in a hotel for a few weeks and I'm bored as hell.

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couseydee:

HILLARY 4 MCCAIN is obviously a republican posting with a clever name. Why on earth would any democrat vote for McCain?! Obama won, fair and square. Of course Clinton supporters were very dissapointed at first; but when you look at policies- only very un-educated and mis-informed hillary supporters would vote for McCain.
If i was a die hard Hillary supporter, I would stay home rather than vote for Palin/McCain.

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cinnamonape:

The funny thing about the logic of that so-called PUMA who argues that it will be Hillary who will be the first female President if they get McCain elected. Sorry it would be Palin...by all actuarial accounts. And even if Hillary was elected in 2012 (very unlikely) she would have to deal with a Supreme Court filled with 8 very young pro-Lifers.

But you'll get your woman!

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MNlatteliberal:

cousydee, a twin cities good evening to you!
can you please refresh my memory - does the Strib national poll today mean that we will see fresh (Strib) Franken numbers tomorrow? is that how they run? Sunday night and my head is a huge mix of pollster factoids that i cannot unravel :).
thanks!

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political_junki:

JoeThePlumber:
is the same as boomshak. I wouldnt be surprised if hillaryformccain is too :) quiet pathetic huh

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MNlatteliberal:

@political_junki
same thought crossed my mind, but iif there is one thing i understand about boom, is that as soon as he gets a thought in his head, either original or copied from a right wing blogger, he has to post it here under his "real" boom. right away. he wants the credit to go to "boom", not some lesser known troll. he's got an image to uphold, after all.

that sort of gave away "wakeup" id as much as the clever alternative spelling of key words
(rediculous).

hillary4mac hinted at a couple of boom's favorite phrases as i read them. but not joe the plumber.

besides, i think running three separate trolls might be too sophisticated for our beloved boomshack.

it's late at night after a long weekend, and yes, i AM overthinking it. a bit. lol

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political_junki:

@MNlatteliberal:
Well, maybe you are right. At the end of the day we can have fun with all of them :)

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couseydee:

Hey Latte- did not feel like a typical October Twin Cities night tonight. I was out in a T-shirt!!
The Franken/Coleman numbers will still be close I think. But it looks like Barkley is taking more votes away from Coleman. I think if there is a high first time voter turn out, they will be voting DFL across the board.
I predict Pawlenty to be a lame duck with a strong DFL majority in the Minnesota house and senate, as well as a Franken victory.

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Jazzhead:

HillaryForMcCain:
In your initial post, you said "Never forget how we were treated by his campaign." I followed the primary closely (I wasn't supporting Obama at the time) and I don't remember his campaign doing anything offensive to Hillary or her supporters (Although I do recall a number of very sexist remarks from media sources). What specifically did Obama or his campaign do that has made you so strongly anti-Obama?

JoeThePlumber:
In your last post, you remark "I love the 'everyone I know is voting for Obama.' That is because you have surrounded yourself with Morons."

Do you believe that anyone who disagrees with you politically is a moron? Intellectually, ethically, or morally deficient?

I have a number of friends and colleagues who will be voting Republican; conservatives with a different viewpoint, different sets of values then I. This doesn't make them unethical or amoral, and it certainly doesn't make them morons.

To everyone, Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, or Green, who has been posting comments laced with vitriol for those expressing a different idea, I would respectfully request that you try to realize that we are a country of many, many differing viewpoints and to consider the possibility that we can differ in values and still be reasonable humans.

Except for the Peace and Freedom schmucks. I can't STAND those f*ckers!!!!!!!

Seriously, though, whoever wins, it's going to be close, which suggests that we as a country are split about 50-50 between Obama and McCain, and the idea that half the country is populated by unethical morons just doesn't make sense.

P.S. Just kidding, Peace & Freedom dudes. I love you guys! BOTH of you! :-)

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MNlatteliberal:

dee, thanks. but do you think there is a STrib Senate poll coming out tomorrow based on the fact that we saw the national one this AM?

I agree about Dean - he is peeling numbers off both Coleman and Al to be as high as he is in the upper teens. You get a real feel for that door knocking undecideds and independents. every so many houses, the lists are out of date, and you end up knocking on either moveon.org doors or bachmann yard sign homes. and even those are not slam dunks for the ones you'd think they'd vote for.

if there was only a way for Franken to pull some of that juicy middle over.

As far as the local races are concerned, we are in 52B, Bachmann's old precinct. We have a mini-Bachmann in Matt Dean. We've given Kate Christopher a couple of hundred bucks and door knocked for her too. But I don't know. We are very red here, and it is an uphill battle, to be sure. There are encouraging signs, but it is a tough hill for Kate, imho.

Hope to catch you here on the 5th to share the election stories. My wife and I are taking a day off to work for DFL, driving voters, calling, whatever. Then, after the polls close, we are having a party for a few close friends. Chances are, I'll be here on the 5th only around noon :))

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zotz:

HillaryForMcCain-
"An Obama victory will be an end to Hillary's chances for becoming President."

I voted for Clinton in the primaries. There were things I disliked about both candidates but I liked Hillary's chances better than Obama's. Obama ran a better campaign than Hillary. Her strategy was wrong. Her staff fought among themselves and she herself showed character flaws. She started out being overconfident and she got more and more angry as her mistakes piled up. Then came the recriminations and the PUMAs that hated Obama more than they loved the principles that Hillary stood for. Seeing those wackos made me an Obama supporter. A lot has been said about Hillary's mistreatment at the hands of Obama supporters.

I believe the the BIGGEST INSULT to Hillary would be to assume that she wants four more years of disasterous Republican rule that would result in more terrible health care, more tax cuts for the upper class, a right wing Supreme Court that definitely will overturn Roe v. Wade, all in order to satisfy her personal ambition. People with the integrity and dedication of the Clintons do not deserve to have their legacy sullied by people like HillaryForMcCain.

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shirefox:

@That One

Great post, all should read it.

You should put on a blog. Try sending it to Andrew Sullivan at TheAtlantic.com. He get wide readership.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@HillaryForMcCain

Ideology that is impervious to facts and devoid of common sense is indistinguishable from stupidity.

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Pat:

Has Zogby reported its poll tonight?

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McShame:

@ Pat:

YES, and Obama had a big jump and leads by 5.4 now. Must have had a good polling day.

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McShame:
____________________

Basil:

Hillary,

The psychological question is "What do poseurs get out of pretending to hold opinions they don't honestly hold?"

In a place like this, the short answer is "attention".

Comedian Rush Limbaugh's the sort of poseur who thrives on provoking strong reactions, both pro and con, but cares little for the facts. His family history (overbearing, authoritative father little Rush could never equal) led him to be a pontificating blowhard, and as an attention-getting strategy it worked.

Why are you pretending? Do you know?

____________________

McShame:

Wow all the tracking polls have now converged to a 5-7 pt lead for Obama (if you include Gallup's expanded LV model).

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Pat:

@McShame,

Thanks. That is good news. I am not surprised. I think Zogby follows Gallup's trends. It will be interesting to see Gallup tomorrow. I think Obama will gain more.

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McShame:

@ Pat,

Yeah I think so too. I think Zogby uses a similar model to Gallup's traditional LV model - both using the 2004 party weightings. So yesterday, we had both Zogby and Gallup LV1 showing a narrow 3 point lead for Obama. I wouldn't be surprised if Gallup has Obama up 4-5 tomorrow using the traditional model which would be in line with Zogby. But then again I don't have much faith in Zogby.

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falcon79:

wow!!!
MT went yellow too :D

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common sense:

@ Dwarf : You are quite right. I have thought all along that this election was going to be close because McCain would attract DEM voters by his partial bi-partisan history. No longer. McCain has made the same mistake that Democrats have made for ages. You can only play to the base up to certain point. After all - who are they going to vote for anyways ? The Dems have learned from their past mistakes. That is a sign of intelligence. If Obama wins Colorado all of the rest will be window dressing.

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syrac818:

Obama lead jumps on Zogby poll to his highest lead since their daily tracking began.

49.8 Obama
44.4 McCain

http://www.zogby.com/

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burrito:

WOW!! Obama leads by 5.4 in Zogby ??

Oh, it is going to be a terrible day for boomshak and all his aliases!!

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vmval1:

I like how politico described yesterday:
"Obama wins, big time"
http://www.politico.com/gameday/

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Lechuguilla:

I have a question. :)

But since it's very, very late Sunday nite, I probably won't get a response, in which case I'll repost tomorrow nite.

My knowledge of campaign finance is next to zero. Obama has tons of money. He's outspending McCain by better than two to one in some states.

So someone please tell me, why can't McCain simply borrow $$$$, if he's running low on cash?

Lech

____________________

TheTruthIsOutThere:

@Lechuguilla

As I understand it a candidate has two choices for funding their campaign after they accept their party's nomination at their respective conventions.

1. They can choose to accept public financing to the tune of about $84m
2. They can choose to go it alone and raise money themselves with some risk that they might not make it to $84m but virtually unlimited upside if their campaign is popular with donors.

Obama chose option 2 and can continue to raise money from any available (but legal) source until the election.

McCain chose option 1 and once the $84m in public funding is gone it CANNOT be supplemented from any other source such as loans, fundraising, personal money, money raised before the convention etc.. So, his campaign is on a fixed budget.

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vmval1:

@TheTruthIsOutThere:

So hypothetically, if Obama was short on funds, could he could turn to a rich friend and say, hey can I borrow 50 mill?

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maddiekat:

I like Zogby's result today but I am beginning to think he doesn't even poll people. It's like, ops Ras and Gallup opened up a bigger lead so I better change my results, or he does the oppsite. In otherwards he is always a day late.

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ricbrig:

@maddie

I agree with you, It was exactly my thought when I saw the poll. It goes strongly with the mood of the news cycle, which suggests me some funny is going on there. Plus a +3 in a 4 days average means a huuuge day for obama. Note also the sudden drop in undecided

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jonny87:

@maddiekat

a single poll isnt a trend but hopefully zogby points towards a powell bump.

but your right, i cant get my head around how zogby does things.

From October 10, 2008

'Zogby estimates independent voters comprise 26% of the electorate this year'


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vmval1:

I am *convinced* that zogby pulls out a dartboard at 12am eastern time every day...

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carl29:

About Zogby? I don't remember where I read it, it could have been Nate, but the point is: Zogby uses the same party ID from the last elections, 2004 in this case. In 2004 there were the same % of Dem and Rep voting on election day. So, he doesn't have the party ID gap that the other pollsters show.

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jonny87:

@carl29

thanks. just checked wiki...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_2004#Voter_demographics

...26% indie(like zogby) and 37 rep and dem

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TheTruthIsOutThere:

@vmval1:
So hypothetically, if Obama was short on funds, could he could turn to a rich friend and say, hey can I borrow 50 mill?

Good question, I know there is a limit on contributions from individuals ($2300 I believe), but I am not sure what the law says about loans (esp. ones that might not get repaid!). Maybe someone else on here can answer your question.

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