Pollster.com

We really need some more polls out of MN, what are you suppose to make out of two polls in the last week or so with about a 20% spread?

McCain will be pulling out of Pennsylvania and Minnesota next.

We really need Franken! he is so great, especially compared to coleman.

I wish there were more polls out of MN so we could see what is really up.

Before the spin machine getting started I just to remind that the same pollster had the race tied in MN a couple of weeks ago
Star Tribune 09/10-09/12 1106 LV 45 45 Tie

538 has Minnesota as follows (without this poll):
Poll average: Obama +4
Trend-adjusted: Obama +7.4
Regression: Obama +10.8
Snapshot: Obama +7.6
Projection: Obama +6.8

RCP has MN at Obama +7.6 (includes todays poll)

and MN turns blue on the map :D !!!!

Ouch!!!!! Don't let McSame supporters see this :-)

I think Obama's team have been fairly comfortable about MN, otherwise they wouldn't have allowed themselves to be so outspent in TV ads.

MN goes BLUE!!!! First MI, then PA and now MN. Im just waiting to see what the McBarbie ticket is going to do next and hopefully, so are Americans.

I hope McCain keep blowing his money on states he has no chance in like PA and MN

I'm not too sure what to think about this poll, but it looks good for Obama in MN nevertheless.

One of the big problems with polling Minnesota is that you can register up to and including election day. So likely voter models may not be too reliable in MN.

McCain is scheduled to visit MN again this week. Either their internal polling is a lot closer than 18 points, or the McCain campaign doesn't have any idea what they are doing.

Based on the fact that McCain visited Iowa a few days after he railed against ethanol subsidies in the debate, I'm betting on the "don't know what they are doing" explanation. I would think McCain would want to spend time in states that are larger and where he is polling better, like OH, VA and FL. But he is running a pretty erratic campaign at this point.

Ouch. MN goes back to blue. For McCain to win this, he now must win FL and OH and NC and VA and IN and MO and CO and either NV or NH. The good news for McCain is that the Republicans have won every state every time except 12 over the last 40 years (out of a possible 360), including every time except once (NH in 2004) over the last two cycles (although I am convinced more people went to the polls with the intention of voting for Al Gore in 2000 in FL).

I don't think Obama really has this much of a lead here. I am betting it's closer to 10 percent. Still though, McCain's chances of winning my state are extremely slim. MN has same day registration, and the DFL has been out in force this year to pre-register people as well.
It's also pretty telling that Obama has such a lead here despite the fact that McCain has been advertising here about 2 months longer than Obama. (I just saw my first Obama commercial on Friday night.)

Here's an interesting post from the past which indicates that the Star Tribune oversamples Democratic areas.

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2006/09/015075.php

In 2004 the MST had a poll on 10/26 with Kerry 49%-Bush 41% (+8). The actual difference was 3.5% (51.1 v. 47.5). They were off by +4.5%. Mason-Dixon miscalled the ultimate outcome (10/27) giving Bush the lead 48-47 (-4.5%); SUSA (10/29) had it tied at 48 all (-3.5%). Rassmussen was the closest with a 48-47 Kerry victory (off by 2.5%).

Here are their early October polls
MST (10/9) 48K-43B (+5); Mason-Dixon (10/15) 45K-47B (-2); SUSA (10/12) 47K-45B (+2); and Rass (10/8) 48K-45B (+3). Thus in 2004 MST was a slight upper end outlier...Mason Dixon on the lower side.

I'll be real interested to see where other polls show up on this. While MST generally measures high for the Democrat, the big swings and gap are much more than occurred in '04. A 13 point lead is pretty wide, even by their typical oversampling.

If it was like 2004 it might be that Obama has a 9 point lead...or if one thinks that this is more indicative of the early October poll (and will continue to go upward) then perhaps it suggests a victory of this margin.

Sarah Palin is slandering Barack Obama's good name and she and McCain are playing dirty politics.

Wasn't Sarah Palin the Director of a 527 political group that was organized by Ted Stevens, the now indicted Senator from Alaska? This article: http://thinkprogress.org/2008/09/01/palin-527-stevens/ says she was.

Wasn't John McCain investigated for his role in the Keating 5 savings and loan scandal? This website: www.keatingeconomics.com
says he was.

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

@ cinnamon
You're probably right about the poll being just a bit oversampled for the Dems. I still think Obama is likely about 10 points ahead here. Another very flawed poll was the survey USA poll that had McCain up by a point. It had Obama leading in the Twin Cities by only 3 points. Sounds to me like they got their Twin Cities numbers from the 6th Congressional District!

A couple of points:

1. Minnesota Republicans routinely complain that the Star Tribune is biased toward DFL candidates. But the Star Tribune poll is historically within the margin of error. Look at the Klobuchar-Kennedy Senate race in 2006: 55-34 Klobuchar on both 10/5 and 11/5 (actual result was 54-37). Back in 2004, it had Kerry up on 10/11 (48-43) and on 10/29 (49-41) (actual result was Kerry. over Bush, 48.5-45.3).

2. It's fair (and, admittedly, speculative) to say that the previous Star Tribune poll was influenced by the favorable coverage of McCain while the RNC was in Minnesota.

3. Minnesota has same-day registration, which benefits younger votes (and, therefore, Democrats). But keep in mind that 225,000 people voted in the caucus between Obama and Clinton in February. The previous record was 75,000, and about 60,000 participated in 2004. Many of those 225,000 people were people who would be same-day registrants. I'm not sure how that influences the polls, if it does, but it's worth pointing out.

***

All of this said, I don't put much faith in the Star Tribune's poll showing Franken up by nine points. I have no logic or reason to back it up; it just doesn't seem right.

My final numbers above are wrong:

Klobuchar won 58-38. Kerry won 51-48. The "final" numbers quoted in parenthesis are RCP final averages. But the point remains the same (as I duck out of the way of the egg about to hit my face).