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MN: Obama 56, McCain 37 (MPR-10/24-28)

Topics: PHome

Minnesota Public Radio /
University of Minnesota-Humphrey Institute
10/24-28/08; 451 LV, 5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Minnesota
Obama 56, McCain 37

 

Comments
Dave:

ok where's the franken poll???

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DTM:

I know no one is paying attention to the Upper Midwest any more, but this sort of poll amazes me when you consider Kerry only won Minnesota by three points. And incidentally, the final 2004 Humphrey Institute poll actually had Bush +3.

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MNLatteLiberal:

Dave,
based on my admittedly limited experience, the Senate race posting typically lags by a day or two in Minneapolis Star Tribune polls and U of MN polls. I trust we will see something in the Franken/Coleman/Barkley race either tomorrow or Saturday.

Speaking of MPR, their midday show just featured a former senior staffer at Gallup (sorry, I didn't catch either his name or title) and a Marist pollster. It was a call in show with some interesting discussion. My favorite was the discussion of Nate's site and methodology. Marist doesn't appear to embrace 538 method of handicapping. If anything, his comments/tone seemed just a tad condescending when pushed to discuss the weighing that Nate Silver uses. It was a very entertaining hour if for no other reason that it went beyond the basics and allowed a bit of the insider peak and issues.

fwiw.

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BLeigh82:

No basis for this, but I imagine MN will end up being closer than this in the end. I'd say an Obama win by 5-10%.

This looked like a real battle ground for a little while there.

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couseydee:

Obama will win Minnesota by no less than 10 points. This poll has a pretty small sample and a high MOE.

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fox:

I really hope Franken can beat Coleman, Coleman is such a liar, only reason he won 6 years ago was because Wellstone died in the plane crash right before the election.

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couseydee:

I hear ya fox. I have a gut feeling Coleman will win though. IF there is a high voter turn out amongst young people- and they vote DFL down the ballot I think Franken has a chance. But that's a big IF. I have no faith in the youth coming out to vote. We always thing they will and they never have.

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JerryTheAngel:

Obama's coattails have a chance of pulling Al Franken over the finish line with a slim victory.

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Hoosier:

One thing I've noticed in the past is that MN polls always seem closer than they are.

Back in 2004, many polls had Bush with a slim lead before Election Day, but Kerry won it by a slim margin.

In 2006, polls showed Amy Klobuchar narrowly ahead of Mark kennedy, yet she thrashed him on Election Night.

Just a historical reference point.

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couseydee:

She really did, Hoosier. I think she won by 20 points! Well, I'm taking Wednesday off so will likely be pretty drunk when the results come in.

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mnsurfski:

Here's an unscientific but interesting data point illustrating the strength of Obama in MN. I live in Rochester, in the SE part, traditionally much more Republican. Our local gourmet bakery has an informal poll going based on whether you buy a blue Obama cookie or a red McCain cookie. Yesterday morning, here in conservative Rochester, it was 1223 Obama to 330 McCain!!

5 more days until the end of our national nightmare.

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bclintonk:

Look for record turnout and a smashing Obama victory in MN, sweeping in Franken and possibly two House pickups for the Dems--Tinklenburg over Michele Bachmann in the 6th and Ashwin Madia over Erik Paulsen in the 3rd. Obama will will by at least 10, possibly much more. The Cities are on fire.

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couseydee:

@ mcsurfski:
I love Daube's!

@bclintonk:
I don't know about the 6th. Was up there last weekend, the place is covered with Bachmann signs. The 3rd is pretty moderate though, Ramstad is what you could call a "Arne Carlson" Republican. So I agree with a Madia win in the 3rd.

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