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MN Sen: Franken 43, Coleman 34 (StarTrib-9/30-10/2)


Star Tribune / PSRA
9/30-10/02; 1,184 Likely Voters, 3.7%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Minnesota
Senate: Franken 43, Coleman 34, Barkley 18

(h/t: Pollster reader gypsyl)

 

Comments
laguna_b:

I love it but I don't beleive it based on others showing Coleman ahead....hope I am wrong!

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zhimbo:

I give up making any sense of this race.

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freedomreigns:

MN has the most volatile electorate in the nation. A group of odd folks.

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This is part of the democratic wave about to occur.

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BOOMFAIL:

No way Coleman wins with an Obama win in MN, and Obama WILL win in MN!

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

We're going past 60, my friends.

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we go past 60 & we can dump turncoat Lieberman

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KipTin:

SurveyUSA recent poll on the Senate race in MN:

9/30-10/1/08 725 LV
Coleman 43 Franken 33 Barkley 19 Undecided 5

At least the Barkley numbers are confirmed.

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dopper0189:

If your pissed at the Washington bailout of banks Franken would seem like a good choice to "stick to 'em" as he seem smore populist. Coleman screams "Washington Insider"!

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hotpepper:

Yes, this is a volatile race. Barkley may be picking up a little steam based simply on the massive, massive negative attacks by Franken and Coleman on each other.

Note that in a genuine 3-way race, the math is different. Jesse Ventura became governor in 1998 with just 37% of the vote.

Barkley is not an unknown. He's been around the Minnesota scene awhile. The typical rap on 3rd-party candidates is that they're supposedly kooks: Barkley is level-headed, moderate, and a somewhat known quantity. Ventura appointed Barkley to fill out the remainder of Paul Wellstone's term after the tragic plane crash in 2002, so Barkley has actually been a U.S. senator for a couple of months.

It's an uphill climb for Barkley to win, but not entirely out of the question. Barkley can position himself as the sensible guy next to two mudslingers. Of course, with so much money being spent in this race, Barkley will have trouble getting his message heard over the noise, so that will work against him.

There's a small chance that Barkley could pull disaffected voters from both candidates and win an upset. It's somewhat more likely that DFLers (Democrats) will stick with Franken--the DFL base is angry and energized--while Barkley will pull enough votes from Coleman to tip the race over to Franken. That could still mean a Franken win with what would sound like an awfully small percentage in a normal race, like low 40s.

Anyway, hang onto your hat. This one could be bumpy for everyone.

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Scott in PacNW:

Snap! The Senate, I hope, will soon be much funnier.

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cinnamonape:

The Star-Trib usually releases a Presidential survey result right after they release their Senate results. They actually use the same sample - the N and LV numbers are the same.

In the past both their Presidential and Senate polls have been pretty close to most other respected pollsters - and their sample size is huge (over 1000).

Expect an update on the Obama-McCain race tomorrow. But I think that they have indicated what the results will show in their comments about this race "Franken has ridden upward on a wave of support for Obama"...as well as disatisfaction with the economy, Bush, and the attack ads.

Boom and the others will scream about "weighting" tomorrow...but remember that this comes from the mouths of the surveyed THEMSELVES. It isn't some manipulated number based upon the 2004 or 2006 election results. It's, at the very least, a reflection of what affiliation people in MN are feeling.

"The poll detected a significant increase in Minnesotans who label themselves as Democrats. Forty-two percent of likely voters identified themselves as Democrats, compared with 27 percent who said they were independents, and 26 percent who said they were Republicans."


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UpstateProgressive:

Wow. Quite a switch from yesterday's SurveyUSA poll--a 19 point swing, from Coleman up 10 to Franken up 9.

We may need to wait until the election to figure out what's really going on. My call: Obama wins the state by 7 points and Franken wins the Senate seat by 2.

Where did I get those numbers....from you know where....

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couseydee:

If Barkley's numbers hold up or increase, I think we will see a Franken win. McCain is now placing all bets on MN, WI, and PA. Good luck with that, McSame.

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Jacob S:

I am not a big fan of either Survey USA or the Star Tribune. The Barkley number does catch my attention, though. I remember when Ventura went from single digits to the 20s back in October of 1998--and the rest was history. In a state with the highest voter turn-out in the nation and same-day registration, anything can happen. We were the state to elect a college professor to the Senate one year, then elect a weather a few elections later, and then elect a former professional wrester two elections after that! Minnesota is an independent and exciting state, which is why I am proud to call myself a Minnesotan.

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Flashlight:

Obama-backers I know in Michigan say the McCain "pull out" is a head-fake designed to slow the new voter registrations before this Monday when voter registration in Michigan ends...

Anyone agree?

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Jacob S:

One other thing: if Barkley wins, he will almost certainly caucus with the Democrats or at least vote with them on most issues. As strange as it sounds, if this race becomes a three-way contest, Franken may have an incentive to take-down Coleman at his own peril (or even drop out of the race and endorse Barkley).

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couseydee:

There is no way Franken would drop out and endorse Barkely. Especially if polls continue to show him ahead. I don't think that Barkley will win either, he hasn't got the personality of Ventura.

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Jacob S:

@Flashlight:

No, I think that McCain is really pulling-out. Due to public campaign finance laws, a campaign in Michigan would simply be a waste of scarce resources for McCain. Given the recent trends, I also think that states like MI, PA, WI, and MN are basically locked-up for Obama. My brother does a good job of explaining these trends at race-to-270.com. A few less people registering in Detroit will not make a difference. On the other hand, a few less people registering in Denver, Las Vegas, St. Louis, Cleveland, or Richmond would make a huge difference.

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Flashlight:

Thanks, Jacob.

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jenn:

What a joke if this guy wins. I'm glad I don't live in Minnesota!

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NW Patrick:

Jenn I'm sorry intelligence scares you.

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Basil:

NW

Yep. Franken is a great guy unless you have no sense of humor. He's also not nearly as ultra-partisan as he's portrayed, as his Air America interviews showed. And he's far more intelligent than your average senator. I don't know what kind of senator he'll make, but I'd like to find out.

I'm not from MN but I gave his campaign some money anyway.

Jenn, what do you actually know about Franken? I'm betting not much except what you've been told. If you're a dittohead, never mind.

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jenn:

I don't care how intelligent he is. He's ultra-liberal and crude.

I enjoyed him on SNL, but I'd sure wish he's stay out of politics!

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Mike In Maryland:

jenn said...
"I enjoyed him on SNL, but I'd sure wish he's stay out of politics!"

And I wish that B-movie (or was it C or D?) actor had stayed in California instead of running for President in 1980. I think he should have stayed out of politics.

No offense against the old geezer, but just saying.

And maybe if he HAD stayed out of politics, we'd have more money to spend on education (jenn - "he's stay out" when speaking in the past tense??).

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Viperlord:

What I find hilarious about these moronic ultra left wing claims is that the Democratic Party is further to the Right than some European conservative parties.

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jenn:

Throw more money at the public schools. Yep,that's worked well especially in my kids' school district. We'll have to move when they get to the junior high because the test scores are so horrible.

How about actually holding the teachers and administration accountable for bad schools. Close the doors if they don't meet the grade.


Al Franken supports universal health care. That's worked great in Canada-not! That's why some of them have to come to the States to get their medical procedures done. The lines are too long!

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jenn:

Mike in Maryland-

"he's stay out of politics"= he'd stay out of politics

It's a typo you East coast snob. People like you make me want to vote for Sarah even more.

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jenn:

By the way it doesn't take a lot of brilliance such as Franken and Obama have to take the taxpayer's money and funnel it into their own agenda!

Government- leave us alone already!

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couseydee:

What state do you live in, Jenn? Being a Minnesotan, I have been following this race closely. I was not too happy with the Franken nod at first; but I have more faith in him now. Growing up in Minnesota and leaving for a time, I know the pull this place has to their native sons. It doesn't surprise me at all that Al wanted to move back to this wonderful state and try to make it better.

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jenn:

If you Minnesotans like him, you can have him! I went to college with some good people from your state!

I'm from Missouri. We have to deal with Claire McCaskill here! Talk about someone just repeating the party talking points. Geez!!

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Willem van Oranje:

jenn sounds bitter.

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couseydee:

@ Jenn
You live in a red state and complain about the schools there. That does indeed make sense as Republicans have a history of under-funding schools.
Minnesota has a history of being a pretty liberal state. MN marks high on all quality of life lists, has one of the highest average incomes, has some of the best public schools and universities in the country, has one of the lowest crime rates in the country, has the lowest un-insured in the country, has the highest voter turn out in the country, etc, etc, etc.
I could go on and on. It seems as if people in red states shoot themselves in the foot election after election. They vote conservative for cultural reasons and everyone gets left behind.

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jenn:

Gov. Matt Blunt has actually increased funding for schools here I believe. And we've had the lottery funds supposedly going into education as well.

Now don't go saying your state is better than Missouri because it's been voting blue. Give me a break!

Some red states such as California have staggering taxes and an outrageous cost of living! And wow we don't want to talk about the public schools there.

But I would love having the great weather there and avoid the winters here!

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jenn:

Mr. William van Orange-

No, I'm not bitter. Perfectly happy just to ruffle some feathers here at pollster.com.

I think some of these people posting here work at CNN or PMSNBC. They need to get back to work. They're behind Fox news in the ratings!

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couseydee:

You don't know winters! I didn't mean to sound condecending. Lottery funds going to education?! So if people aren't buying lottery tickets, what happens to the funding?
Minnesota isn't a utopia, our transit and road funding is set up similar to your lottery point. It's largely funded by the motor vehicle tax. But with the lousy economy, no one has been buying cars and there's a gaping hole in tranportation funding.
I guess my point was that many people in many states vote on a single issue (abortion, guns, etc) without looking at the big picture.
Part of living in a society is having to pay for the luxury of living in a society. Nothing is free and we all have to pitch in to keep our infrastructure and public services strong. This involves paying for things we may not even use. (I don't own a car, but will gladly pay for roads).

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jenn:

I agree we should all do our part to keep up the roads and various other public services. But everyone should be equally taxed. Flat tax.

Don't supertax the rich and cripple our economy.

No one will invest in the stock market when Obama increases the capital gains to 25 or 30%. That's the worst thing you can do for the economy.

You don't need a Harvard degree to figure that one out!

I have no idea where the lottery funds are going. If you put the bureaucrats in charge, the money somehow gets lost!

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couseydee:

A flat tax is very far from equal. If I make minumum wage and am taxed the same as someone making 400,000 a year. My percentage of tax paid would be WAY more than the latter.
If everyone paid the same percentage of tax- now that makes sense.

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airhawk86:

Couseydee---

you must not know what a flat tax is. (doesn't surprise me from an Obama supporter)

A flat tax does not mean everyone pays the same dollar amount, it means that every one is taxed at the same percentage.

We have a progressive tax system now, where the rich pay a significantly higher percentage.

Jenn- ignore NW Patrick, he has been widely discredited as a moron

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jenn:

How would it be unequal. Flat tax means the same percentage. Of course, there should be exceptions such as a single mother with 4 kids working at minimum wage shouldn't be paying taxes.

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Mike In Maryland:

jenn,

Fox News????? That 'Fair and Balanced' source of male bovine droppings????? hahahahahahaha

You complain about bad winters? There are good and bad weather-related problems in EVERY state. If you think Missouri has bad winters, you wouldn't cut it in Minnesota, Wisconsin, North or South Dakota, Maine, Montana, or a lot of other northern states. You CERTAINLY wouldn't make it in central Alaska.

The Gulf Coast states and South Atlantic states have hurricanes to consider every summer and autumn, or have you forgotten about Ike so soon??????

Central states have to worry about tornadoes - ever hear of Tornado Alley?????

The West Coast states are constantly threatened with earthquakes. But they are not nearly so threatened by an earthquake as the Mississippi Valley is - have you never heard of the New Madrid fault? Since you state you are from Missouri, if you haven't heard of it, maybe you should brush up on your own state's history. Or didn't the Missouri education system not teach you about that?????

"Some red states such as California"?????

California is a red state????? hahahahahahaha In your dreams!

You do realize that 'red state' means predominantly Republican in national voting, don't you? You do realize that the last time California voted for the Republican Presidential candidate was in 1988, don't you?

If you don't, then maybe your schools failed to teach you how to read, and/or comprehend what you just read, and/or think.

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couseydee:

I was talking about the fed raising the sales tax nation wide and abolishing fed income tax. Was a bit confused in my post.

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airhawk86:

still, cousey

rich people would spend more money, and therefore pay more taxes.

A national sales tax would encourage saving. Perhaps with our culture of debt, that might not be such a bad thing.

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jenn:

Oh- there you go again Mike. Belittling someone you disagree with. And I'm terribly sorry you're worried about natural disasters. You need to enjoy life especially since your "messiah" is winning the election.

Sorry I meant California is a blue state- always a huge Democratic state! Proud home of Nancy Pelosi right!! ugh!!

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airhawk86:

Let's just all agree that John McCain is the man.

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commprof:

As a former cheesehead, I agree that people often seek a return to the the state they called home in their youth. It would be disingenuous to say funding alone will fix education. Research suggests that parental involvement is the most significant factor on student grades. Increased funding does allow for more access to technology and fine arts and that can make a big difference in preparation for college. I refuse to weigh in on a debate about the relative merits of a flat tax and its somewhat flawed adherence to beliefs about the Laffer curve, but I hope that Franken wins because I need to be able to laugh about something as my house value plummets.

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political_junki:

Jenn says:"I don't care how intelligent he is. " Ofcourse you dont. You are voting for McSame/Palin. How could you care about intelligence.

And Ofcourse california is super proud home of Nanci Pelosi. An intelligent (we know you dont care about that quality) stateswoman. Unlike Alaska which should be ashamed of producing ignorant/witch crafting believer/creationism advocate half brained Plain

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StandardDeviation:

The same poll shows Obama leading McCain 55-37. That seems like a big jump from their previous poll, which had them tied at 45-45.

Regardless of your opinion of the poll, I am a bit surprised and disappointed to see Pollster.com cherry-picking the results they report. My understanding was that they would blindly report all results, and let the masses do the spinning...

Perhaps they just missed it somehow, but I would hope they would be more inclusive going forward over the next 30 days.

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StandardDeviation:

Ok, scratch that...I see what happened...The Star Tribune, for dramatic effect apparently, is the one cherry-picking which results they report...they released the Senate race first (yesterday) and the presidential race (this morning) to eek two days of news out of the single poll.

So my apologies to Pollster (presumably they'll be adding the new results today) and shame shame shame on The Star Tribune...I realize business is rough for print media...but c'mon...

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jenn:

If Nancy Pelosi is so intelligent, why is she presiding over this whole financial mess partially created by the Democrats. They were trying to create "affordable housing".

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political_junki:

You yourself say "Partially created by Democrats".

Pelosi has been presiding over the house for 2 years, republicans have had the government for 8 and the house of 6 of it.

This whole financial crisis started by fundamental problems with Wall Street oversight. If you think it was caused because Pelosi is not intelligent you are either naive or dishonest. Based on your other posts I think you are just naive.

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political_junki:

It seems people are smarter than what Cons want us to believe:
-----------------------------------------------
VP Debate Pushed Undecided Voters to Obama
An Ipsos/McClatchy poll found that Gov. Sarah Palin's performance in last week's vice presidential debate actually hurt her running mate, Sen. John McCain, among undecided voters.

Before the debate, undecided voters were leaning 56% to 44% for McCain. The day after the debate, the numbers tilted 52% to 48% for Sen. Barack Obama.

Said pollster Clifford Young: "It's suggesting an overall tendency of undecideds toward Obama, so it is significant. We're catching an underlying trend that's going on."

The poll also found that Sen. Joe Biden won the debate, 54% to 46%.

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jenn:

The only ones doing cartwheels over her are a few liberals- like the ones on this site. Having a high IQ + liberal views doesn't automatically qualify you for public office.

Look at the Congressional 10% approval rating. Ouch!!

I don't care when she started, she's in charge now and has to shoulder some of the blame- as does Bush.

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political_junki:

Jenn:"I don't care when she started, she's in charge now and has to shoulder some of the blame- as does Bush."

-->I agree.

Jenn:"Having a high IQ + liberal views doesn't automatically qualify you for public office."


---->I agree it does not qualify but
Being an ignorant religious fundamentalist who wants to take books of the shelves of libraries
does disqualify you for public office.

Jenn:"The only ones doing cartwheels over her are a few liberals"

-----> The way demographics are changing in a generation those few liberals will outnumber you few cons :)

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jenn:

If I told anyone here where I live(urban area)- Democrat or Republican that Nancy Pelosi is doing a great job. They would laugh at me for sure.

Nice how you took a shot at religion when the topic is Nancy Pelosi. The only way she will get any respect as a leader is if she "cleans house" on both sides of the aisle. Whoever was sleeping with Freddie/Fannie get 'em out.

You attribute this all to Wall Street oversight. Now you're the naive one.

As you should know, elections run in cycles. If you really think that liberalism will take over the country based on the Democrats winning elections the last 2 years, you need to go back and look over US history.

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Tubbygut:

Minnesota will make itself the laughing stock of the nation if it elects that buffoon as senator. And that's saying alot,given the poor track record of Illinois and Louisiana.

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political_junki:

Jenn:I didnt mean US will become liberal because Dems have won a couple of elections and be I know US hostory atleast as good as you.

What I meant is that todays con's are liberals compared to con's of 50's. Remember segregation also was part of being a "conservative". Look what has happened...
40 years from now I am sure many people will be "con's" in name, but it will be as obvious to them as day light that a woman should have the right to choose if she wants abortion or not. Same way that the idea of segregation is obviously redicuolous to most con's now, so will be the idea of being anti abortion in 2050. and many other things like that.

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nathan:

There real questions here is who Barkley is taking more votes from... and of course, who would he caucas with in the Senate?

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