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MO: 2010 Sen Primary (PPP 3/27-29)

Topics: poll

Public Policy POlling (D)
3/27-19/10; 400 likely Republican primary voters, 4.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Missouri

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
48% Blunt, 18% Purgason (chart)

2012 President: Republican Primary
32% Huckabee, 28% Palin, 22% Romney

 

Comments
djneedle83:

The republicans will pick up on the extreme democrat margins in the South, Midwest, Mountain West, and North Plains.

However, that in total is about 15-25 house seats at best. And if they are lucky they will get 4-5 Senate pickups.

However, then 2012 rolls around and the Obama base shows up for campaign events, get out the vote activities, early voting, and election day voting. The potential Republican candidates named above are going to get wrecked by Obamanation.

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havoc:

djneedle83:
"The republicans will pick up on the extreme democrat margins"

Like NJ and Mass.

You guys own the economy and the massively unpopular HCR law.

Over under is 40 in the house and 7 in the senate.

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Field Marshal:

Interesting article in the HuffPost of all places.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/31/clinton-pollster-if-elect_n_520040.html

Even a 25 seat change would be devastating to the Dems as it would bring them with just a 15 seat advantage. The dems had trouble getting through legislation with a 35 seat margin- think about the difficulty with just 15 or less.

I'm thinking between 25-35 right now. The senate is where the big change will be.

RCP has the GOP +7 which is a bit optimistic right now but not wildly out of whack. It assumes a win in PA, OH and CO which are tossups and a blunt win MO and a Lowdon win in NV.

It also assumes Murray wins in WA, Feingold in WI and Boxer in CA which, for now, are safe assumptions.

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Publius:

havoc:

NJ and Massachusetts will turn out to be the high water mark of opposition to the Democrats.

You obviously don't live in NJ. There's already talk of recalling Christie because of his massive education cuts and transfer of about $1 billion dollars in tax money to the wealthy. Many public school tudents boycotted classes and Christie called them tools of the teacher's union, then accused teachers of propagandizing their classes. What a guy. And Scott Brown's election sure changed the landscape right? Tea Party threats will only go so far.

The wild card is the economy. If it improves enough, Republican gains will be limited.

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Field Marshal:

"You obviously don't live in NJ. There's already talk of recalling Christie because of his massive education cuts and transfer of about $1 billion dollars in tax money to the wealthy."

I love this. It clearly shows the mentality of liberals in regards to wealth envy. By lowering taxes, Christie is "transferring" money to the wealthy! Isn't it their money to begin with Publius?

Look at it this way instead; Christie is letting people keep more of the money they earn instead of confiscating it.

In regards to what he said about the students, he was absolutely right. Best thing he has done so far other than to take on the state pensions.

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Field Marshal:

In addition, NJ has the highest state & local combined tax burden in the country with people in the top bracket paying 10.8% in state income taxes along with the highest mill levy on property taxes in the country.

To say that Christie is "transferring" them a billion dollars in tax money is beyond ludicrous.

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Publius:

Field Marshal:

Wealth envy? Do you have any more meaningless phrases?

So let me get this straight: taking money from public education is good because it enables wealthy people to keep more of what they have (not all wealthy people have earned their money). I suppose it makes sense for you to say that because less education would result in more people believing what Sarah Palin says.

And since you know what goes on in classrooms in New Jersey, you know that teachers are not actually teaching subjects but are propagandizing students to support their union? No wonder the NJ schools are so good.

Thanks for clearing that up.

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Publius:

Field Marshal:

Maybe I need to make it simpler.

There was a tax on those people making over $400,000. Now there isn't. Those people got a tax cut. Christie is cutting school aid by $800 million dollars and doing so by making teachers and other state workers freeze or take a cut in income.

The rich makes more, the middle class makes less. Schools will have to cut programs and teachers. That's ludicrous.

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Field Marshal:

Publius,

The meaningless phrase is transferring money to the rich, a.k.a. tax cuts for the wealthy at the expense of the middle class. That has been the lie for the past 7 years.

I'm not saying taking money from public education is good at all. However, how it is better to be taking it from the rich? Doesn't make sense to me. If taking it from the rich is okay, than taking it (cutting) from education is okay or taking it from state employees, or small business or the poor.

It is your mindset that is drawing the conclusion that confiscating exploitative sums from the rich is okay while reducing education funding, in a state that is second in average spending per pupil at $13,800, is not. So, maybe the state education systems needs exactly that, to have programs cut and teachers let go. Just like any other business or concern. It certainly looks like to me that its a bit over bloated.

My question is where does it end? In NJ, someone who earns $1,000,000 will see a tax burden of 57% with just the standard deduction, the highest in the country. Thus, the rich pay a higher percentage of their income than the middle class, so the middle class make more on a marginal basis than the rich. Is your goal to reduce the rich to the middle class to make everything more "fair"? I fail to understand your thesis here.

Maybe instead of throwing out wealth envy rhetoric you would think to yourself that maybe Christie is hoping that by lowering that oppressive top rate, new businesses and more capital formation will take place in the state and increase the economy.

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Publius:

Field Marshal:

I'm all for reasoned debate without the catchphrases and I appreciate your last post for its tone.

I disagree with most of it. Schools and education are not businesses and should not be treated as such. Schools must be fully funded or the businesses and all of the growth that you reference (and I agree with ) will not occur. I think you are absolutely wrong with your moral relativist argument that taxing the wealthy is analogous to taxing the middle class and the poor. The whole point of civil society is based upon an educated populous, and the public schools are the avenue by which we do that. Cutting teachers and programs to teach unions a lesson does absolutely no good because it burdens society and doe more damage over the long term.

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Field Marshal:

"Schools must be fully funded"

What is fully funded? Who decides that? Reminds me of the 'livable wage' catch-phrase you hear from liberals when asked about Walmart. Judging by what they spend on primary education in NJ on a per pupil basis, it would seem to me that their schools are fully funded.

In addition, studies show there is no correlation between the amount of money spent per pupil and the educational outcomes of the student.

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Publius:

Field Marshal:

Clearly, you don't have children. Fully funded means that schools can pay for what they need; supplies, teachers, custodial services, technology, etc. without parents having to buy long lists of items in August.

True, there is little correlation between money in general and outcomes, but a school without resources does not meet its educational mandate.

The single most important ingredient for educational outcomes is the quality of the teachers in the school. Christie has made teachers the enemy and has sought to cut teacher pay. Is that the way to ensure that the single most reliable statistic for student success is met? Is that they way to bring the best teachers into the profession? I'm sure you'd agree that money brings the best people into the law, finance and banking. Why not education? That's the absurdity of the conservative view. Money matters in everything but education.

Christie's approval ratings are down 9 in a month. How low can he go?

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Field Marshal:

I do have children but am just tired of the same ol' tiring mantra that education cannot have funding cut and that teachers are some sort of holy figures that cannot be told how to do their job or, god-forbid, told they cannot have their ridiculous pay increases and pensions.

Schools can always find new items and programs that need funding thus the assertion that fully funded means schools paying for what they need is vague at best. I tend to work in the real world instead of the "would be nice" world.

Christie is cutting property taxes which are the feeders for school budgets. The property taxes are the highest in the country. This leaves the school district themselves to decide where and what forms the cuts will take. It could be teacher salaries or non-essential programs or whatever. Depends on the district.

Fact of the matter is that the state, like California and NY, is completely broke. Their pension obligations alone will be eating up 50% of their budget in 2020 if it is not reformed.

Christie is doing what has to be done. In addition to education cuts, he is cutting virtually everything in the bloated budget. He is laying off a few thousand state workers and freezing the pension system.

Back to education, if the teachers are the most important aspect, than why do the unions and education boards fight so hard against pay-for-performance or the removal of tenure status?

Of course his approval is down because he is cutting services as opposed to his predecessors who essentially opened up the treasury to the people.

http://www.northjersey.com/news/033010_Poll_NJ_Gov_Christies_approval_rating_drops.html

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havoc:

Christie is just doing what he said he would do when he ran. If he balances the budget and gets the economy to respond he should be ok politicaly.

$13,000 seems like enough per student. I send my kids to a private school and tuition is $3,000. Kids are doing great, no amount of cash can take the place of teachers and parents who care.

In other words the education problem is a cultural issue not a finance issue.

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Publius:

havoc:

"In other words the education problem is a cultural issue not a finance issue."

How wrong you are. If you want quality, you need to pay for it. I'm simply amazed at the inconsistency of your arguments.

And what's so magical about $13,000 per student? Because it "seems" right to you? What if the real number should be $17,000?

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Field Marshal:

Publius,

The only thing we can go by is comparisons to other states. Colorado allocates about 60% of what NJ does and our students are just as educated coming out of high school.

The $13k is double what some of the other states in the country spend. Nothing magical, but why is NJ spending twice as much as other states for roughly the same outcomes?

But again, there is no correlation to the amount of money spent and children's outcomes. And i find it fascinating that people decry our health care for spending 40% more than other industrialized countries but don't think the added expense gets us any better outcomes.

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Publius:

Field Marshal:

They're not roughly the same outcomes in other states. NJ schools are routinely in the top 3 for most state comparisons. And it does cost more to live in NJ than in Colorado, so you do have to pay teachers more.

Meanwhile, the state has missed 10 years of pension payments and they turn around and say that teachers need to make the most sacrifices.

I agree with you on health care. We can spend less, but it depends on what we actually spend the money on. Preventive care earlier in life would go a long way towards making our country healthier.

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