Mark Blumenthal | October 15, 2008
Topics: Status Update
The last 24 hours were relatively slow for new statewide polls, mostly because I included the crack-of-dawn releases by Quinnipiac University in yesterday morning's update. These new polls make no change in our map classifications or even in the rank of states based on the Obama-McCain margin on our trend estimates.
The two new polls from Democratic pollsters PPP happen to be from the two states currently showing the closest margins on our trend marginals, North Carolina and (believe it or not) Missouri. Both help move increase Obama's margins slightly on our trend estimates.
The latest SurveyUSA poll in Ohio shows Obama leading by five points (50% to 45%), providing further confirmation of Obama's gains there. It nudges Obama's advantage on our trend estimate there up to 4.3% (49.6% to 45.3%).
My morning snapshot of the national trend estimate catches what will likely be a momentary high point for the Democrats, largely as the result of the new CBS/New York Times poll showing Obama with 14 point advantage. While the other daily tracking results will probably lower the 9.1 percent margin on the national trend by the time I get this entry posted, the national tracking surveys have been essentially flat this week. Some move up, some move down, suggesting that most of the variation is statistical noise. Still, as should be obvious from the electoral vote count, a 6 to 8 point lead in the national polls translates to crushing margin in the electoral college.