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Morning Status Report for 10/15

Topics: Status Update

The last 24 hours were relatively slow for new statewide polls, mostly because I included the crack-of-dawn releases by Quinnipiac University in yesterday morning's update. These new polls make no change in our map classifications or even in the rank of states based on the Obama-McCain margin on our trend estimates.

2008-10-15 Daily.jpg

The two new polls from Democratic pollsters PPP happen to be from the two states currently showing the closest margins on our trend marginals, North Carolina and (believe it or not) Missouri. Both help move increase Obama's margins slightly on our trend estimates.

The latest SurveyUSA poll in Ohio shows Obama leading by five points (50% to 45%), providing further confirmation of Obama's gains there. It nudges Obama's advantage on our trend estimate there up to 4.3% (49.6% to 45.3%).


2008-10-15 trend


My morning snapshot of the national trend estimate catches what will likely be a momentary high point for the Democrats, largely as the result of the new CBS/New York Times poll showing Obama with 14 point advantage. While the other daily tracking results will probably lower the 9.1 percent margin on the national trend by the time I get this entry posted, the national tracking surveys have been essentially flat this week. Some move up, some move down, suggesting that most of the variation is statistical noise. Still, as should be obvious from the electoral vote count, a 6 to 8 point lead in the national polls translates to crushing margin in the electoral college.

 

Comments
Isher:

His Electoral College margin might beat Clinton's victory over Dole (379). Unlikely, but a good place to aim for

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bill kapra:

Mark, I think your two last national numbers need fixing.

IDB is up one from their yesterday tracker +3 over +2.

Zogby (tracking) is at 4 today after 6 yesterday.

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lfivepoints69:

Won't someone please poll Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Kentucky? I can't believe these states are still as overwhelmingly pro-McCain as their older polls suggest.

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Any polls on South Carolina? As more and more states come into play, I have high hopes for my native state.

Sarah Says What???

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RS:

"a 6 to 8 point lead in the national polls translates to crushing margin in the electoral college."

Dammit, Mark - why do you have to be so biased against McCain? He has at least a 5% chance of becoming President!
/snark

@Rich Merritt: SUSA realized a SC poll this morning, a 15% deficit, I am afraid. Look at the Pollster.com main page.

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Mark Blumenthal:

@Bill,

I should probably be more careful in how I describe to the numbers for the daily trackers in the table. Look carefully at the field dates for the "last" numbers for those daily trackers: I'm not displaying yesterday's numbers but the last non-overlapping sample for each (what I'm able to grab in an automated process I use to generate the table).

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bill kapra:

@Mark,

Okay but IBD has only been out for two days. It seems more sensible to compare tracker to tracker.

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JFactor:

"Won't someone please poll Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Kentucky? I can't believe these states are still as overwhelmingly pro-McCain as their older polls suggest."

If any of those states will go to Obama McCain should go into exile. It would be a personal tragedy and extremely shameful for him.
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http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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Joalpepo:

The 51 United States of America

Someone has probably already pointed this out, but ARG's website contains a curious statement:

"Barack Obama continues to leads in 25 states with a total of 316 electoral votes and John McCain leads in 26 states with a total of 222 electoral votes."

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lfivepoints69:

Joalpepo: The District of Columbia has three electoral votes.

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