Mark Blumenthal | October 18, 2008
Topics: Status Update
On Friday we added 13 new statewide database, and these new surveys mostly confirm what we already knew. Most represent updates since September and show the same progress for the Democrats we have seen or the last few weeks. Three new surveys in Florida suggest that Obama's lead there may be narrowing. Another new survey in North Dakota indicates that the surprisingly close contest in North Dakota is not a mirage and the national polls suggest a slight uptick in support for McCain nationwide.
We had three new surveys yesterday in all-important Florida from the Times Union and Sun Sentinel/Research 2000 (Obama +4), SurveyUSA (McCain +2) and Democratic polling firm Hamilton Campaigns (Obama +4). These new surveys narrowed Obama's Florida margin on our trend estimate to 4.2 points (49.1% to 44.9%), which represents a 2.6 point drop on the margin from the 6.8 point lead we saw earlier in the week.