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Morning Status Update for 10/3

Topics: Status

Yesterday's new polls, which of course were all fielded before last night's debate, continue to show evidence of the gains made by the Obama-Biden ticket over the last week. We logged 18 new statewide and 9 new national surveys. None produced a shift in status on our map, but most indicate a trend to Obama.

  • 11 of the 12 new statewide tracking polls that updated results collected earlier in September showed movement in Obama's direction.
  • Our trend estimates improved slightly for Obama in 9 of 11 of the battleground states that we currently classify as either toss-up or leaning to one of the candidates.


2008-10-03 trend.jpg

The Democrats also continue to show progress on national surveys. Three of the five daily tracking polls (from Gallup, Rasmussen and Battleground/GWU) clicked up for Obama yesterday, while two (Diageo/Hotline and Daily Kos/Research2000) were unchanged. In addition, we logged four new national surveys yesterday and all four showed slight increases for Obama and Biden. Our national trend chart showed Obama leading by 5.6 points as of this morning (49.2% to 43.6%), which is larger than an any previous margin shown by the trend-line during 2008.

 

Comments
dat179:

Have you logged the Saint Anselm College Institute of Politics poll that showed Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 37 percent in New Hampshire?

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thoughtful:

Neither of the 2 NH pols are included in the above.

Obama/Biden looking at the next thrust which should be decisive.

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Mark Lindeman:

Weird fun with smoothing: excluding St. Anselm polls (which are now incorporated in the Flash chart) actually slightly widens Obama's margin in NH. That is, including the poll actually makes the race appear a bit closer.

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Allen:

@Mark Lindeman:

Confirmed. That's very bizarre.

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boomshak:

I HAVE A POLLING RECOMMENDATION:

Polling has become a huge force in our current political world. Political polls are used to lead the news and set the narrative.

Unfortunately, the SAMPLE used in polls is often withheld or suspect. But there is a solution.

GOVERNMENT POLLING BUREAU:
Create a government bureau that keeps a weekly running tally of NATIONAL PARTY AFFILIATION based upon actuarial studies, government data and thousands of phone calls.

Anyone performing a National Poll MUST weight their poll by these established Party Affiliation Standards.

This way, the poll reader has a FRAME OF REFERENCE from which to evaluate all polls against a standard.

I am sure this would annoy the MSM to no end as it takes away their #1 tool for manipulating public opinion.

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PA-John:

@boom-utter-failure

"GOVERNMENT POLLING BUREAU:
Create a government bureau that keeps a weekly running tally of NATIONAL PARTY AFFILIATION based upon actuarial studies, government data and thousands of phone calls."

That's right - you, Boom - a conservative by trade - are calling for a new government agency to oversee polls. Good one. Let's put Karl Rove in charge. WTF, let's cut the mainstream media out completely and just have a Government News Agency. We'll call it FOXNews.

You have typed a megaton of bull**** on here before, but this is the best yet.

YOU. ARE. AN. EPIC. FAILURE.

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PA-John:

@boom-utter-failure

"GOVERNMENT POLLING BUREAU:
Create a government bureau that keeps a weekly running tally of NATIONAL PARTY AFFILIATION based upon actuarial studies, government data and thousands of phone calls."

That's right - you, Boom - a conservative by trade - are calling for a new government agency to oversee polls. Good one. Let's put Karl Rove in charge. WTF, let's cut the mainstream media out completely and just have a Government News Agency. We'll call it FOXNews.

You have typed a megaton of bull**** on here before, but this is the best yet.

YOU. ARE. AN. EPIC. FAILURE.

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Viperlord:

So now we're supposed to let the government run the polls? LOL. EPIC FAIL.

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CTPonix4BHObama:

@boomshak

Once again i kind of agree with you. Personally I think it should be run by something like the league of women voters, not them, but you get my drift.

Whats your opinion on this? I also think they're should be an electronic polling/opinion research conducted by the government on specific issues/bills so instead of calling your reps and saying if you support an issue/bill and give your opinion about it it can be done electronically and then the reps can go to that source and find out if their constituents support the measure. One vote per person on any one issue of course.

Hopefully an obama administration will be cutting edge enough to do something like this. Would be great for this information age.

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Vicente Duque:


I was reading the New York Times today October 3 and I find that they are building individual pages for some Toss Up States with beautiful Information about History and the Latest Polls for each State.

But the Maps and Information are somewhat confusing and slow to read. So I provide many links to the pages of the NYT and made a Summary that people will find easier to read.

Here is my Blog of TossUpStates :

http://tossupstates.blogspot.com/

I also study Young Voters and Racial Voting in my Milenials Blog :

http://milenials.blogspot.com/

Vicente Duque

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Ming:

Great site!

I was wondering if you might aid the reader by adding a simple computation to the poll results, namely the +/-% vote difference?

e.g.
NC Obama 44 McCain 42 (Elon-9/29-10/2)
becomes
NC +2 Obama 44 McCain 42 (Elon-9/29-10/2)
or
NC Obama (+2) 44 McCain 42 (Elon-9/29-10/2)

Thanks!

Ming

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judas_priest:

@ Boomshack

The supreme irony: a supposed conservative calling for a new government agency to oversee private activities (I thought you guys were supposed to be against government regulation of anything but woemn's reproductive systems).

Aside from that, what you suggest violates the first amendment to the US constitution, but I guess you are like W in that and want to ignore it.

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Viperlord:

You forget that conservatives also want to regulate our freedoms. (They've already destroyed the Fourth Amendment)

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