Pollster.com

The new CNN/Time estimates are in line with the margins in the graph above with the exception of NH which should turn blue today. Dispite some of the recent polls, I think that the CNN having NC as a true toss-up is on the money. I doubt McCain will have any time or money to spend on NC so it seems like a good chance for a pick up.

The lead in Ras is still 52-44, that is the money poll. CBS News said that the race has tightened since the VP debate, hmm maybe in your poll. Zogby will be an interesting one to watch. He was on the $$ in 2000, but said Kerry was going to win in 2004. Zogby always seems to be one election behind. He was using 2000 data to weigh his samples in 2004, and I bet he is using 2004 data to weigh his 2008 polls. That being said 48-45 is somewhat plausible if you have fewer young people and Dems in the sample. Obama leads be like 7 or 8 points among independent voters in the Zogby poll and has 90% of Dems and is only ahead be three? Hmmm

"Five of the seven showed a gain of at least a point for Obama." - So guess which pollster is the Republican spin machine's new favorite? As evidenced by Pat Buchanan's rantings last night on Maddow...

@angrytox:
Palin's supposed to be in NC today. They seem to have figured out that the best way to use Palin is to excite their base with her Jane-Sixpack shtick and the "Obama=Ayers/Wright=terrorist/unpatriotic" smears. Never mind the Alaska Independence Party and witch-hunting Pastor Murthy (spelling?)

@RS

Yeah, I know, but I doubt there will be many ad buys and such. They way I look at it, if you have to spend time defending NC, you've kinda already lost. Spend time on the big swingers and hope for the best. Ironic that McCain is now relying on hope. Who knows, I may be wrong.

I'll admit that I'm too ready to discount the effect Palin can have with the mud in a place like Greenville (no offense, Greenvillians, it is a lovely place).

Well the Map seems to have gone to 320 presumably NH and OH are now blue!

I think that Obama has now settled for the time being on this crest. Much depends on particularly the first 10-15 minutes of tonight's debate.

A good Obama performance seals the deal. McCain will be fighting for his Campaign's very survival.

Zogby has a 3-day tracking poll with Obama up only by 3, 48 to 45.

I wouldn't get too excited about the map just yet. Four weeks is an eternity in politics and anything can happen. McCain is nearly guaranteed to have one more surge in the polls and depending on how strong and how close it is to Election Day, he can make the night of Nov. 4th a nailbiter...

But, yes, he'll need the debate performance of a lifetime and some external event that would permanently define Obama in a way that's diametrically opposed to anything we've seen before to have a real chance of winning.

At this point, I don't see McCain campaign or media driven investigations or attacks doing much to drive down Obama's numbers back to statistical ties.

@pbcrunch

"Four weeks is an eternity in politics and anything can happen."

But, it is not 4 weeks. Early voting and mail-in voting has started. I will receive my ballot today (here in Colorado) and will be done voting before dinner.

Dave - you're right to point out the early voting. Loads of states start the early voting process around October 20, so WcCain has about 2 weeks to really turn it around.

With so much focus on the economy and the financial meltdown seeming to help Obama/Biden, let's just hope some international crisis doesn't develop (or get cooked up by the Bush team) in the remaining 4 weeks in order to help McCain refocus on foreign policy, where (for some reason) he is seen to be a better leader.

I don't think one can even make the "McCain better on foreign policy" argument all that forcefully any more.

Obama is behind McCain a bit in polling on that issue, but much more narrowly than before the first debate.

@pbcrunch has it right.

There's nothing early about voting now - "election day" is a quaint but obsolete idea from a previous century.

They mail out ballots, you mail them back. They _count_ them on "election" day - but that's not when we vote. And actually they just start to count them on election day - ballots have to be in the mail by "election day," so the counting will go on for a week or so.

I'm in Seattle - we're one of the last holdouts in the state of Washington to still have actual polling places on "election day," but less than a third of votes are cast there. The rest of the state has entered the twenty-first century and they now store their polling stations next to the buggy whips in the museum.

It's just voting. It's not "early" voting. It's starting now.

I understand that early voting is starting in many battleground states this week or next but it doesn't mean that something could happen that shifts the battleground to McCain's favor in the next four weeks.

Don't get me wrong; I think the chances of such a radical shift are extremely small and is largely out of the hands of McCain and his campaign.

I want Obama to win, strongly. I just don't want people to look at the map, assume that early voting will favor Obama, and become complacent, not realizing and compensating for a game-changer if and when one comes around.

@pbcrunch:
I am with you there - I'd rather the polls be close, so folks actually get out and vote. Complacency is dangerous...

Not sure how many states outside of OR (?) and WA (those liberal Western states!) have such mail-in ballots.

Mark:

Have you looked at the Ohio and Florida trend lines separately for the IVR and interviewer polls? Ohio really isn't showing nearly as much of a swing (none at default sensitivity) for the IVR polls, which still have McCain ahead at all sensitivities....

Perhaps it's time for someone far for more knowledgeable than I to look at the Bradley effect again -- atleast as it may be a factor in the difference between the results in polling techniques?

Thanks.

Mark:

Have you looked at the Ohio and Florida trend lines separately for the IVR and interviewer polls? Ohio really isn't showing nearly as much of a swing (none at default sensitivity) for the IVR polls, which still have McCain ahead at all sensitivities....

Perhaps it's time for someone farmore knowledgeable than I to look at the Bradley effect again -- at least as it may be a factor in the difference between the results in polling techniques?

Thanks.

desperation has taken ahold the gop...kinda sad.

i think repubs are starting to understand that what they have done to this country has ruined the nation AND their party..

Like an addict they are pushing in the same direction that got them in this mess instead of a reorginization of their party with sane, rational, right-leaning moderates at the top.

If yesterday was Obama's best polling day today is even better.

He can close the deal tonight with a good Presidential performance.

McPanic has set in and now the mudslinging really kicks into overdrive! The Republicans are hoping that they can sling and Barack will sling back and then they attack... Oh!!! He said he wouldn't do that!!! Barack Lies to the American People! For the record... He promised a new type of campaign and to his credit he has done his level best to accomplish that. However, we, as Democrats know that mudslinging works and especially so when it isn't responded to in kind. That is the Americans peoples fault and we cannot even attack McCain because it works. It works on the people... they use it. Duh!
What matters are the issues. I sincerely hope that Barack spends his time staying on point and that he simultaneously responds as necessary in commercials. It is a good "strategy". Ask Mr McCain how he lost his partys nomination multiple times. He will tell you it works and he will not pull punches this time. For the record "We want a Liberal" so all you Republicans can quit hurling the term liberal like an insult when we know what built this great nation!Liberal ideals built this nation! We are Proud to be that party that strives to these ideals! In these dire times we will need someone in office who can grasp a new frontier with a people first mindset. It will be a difficult road at best. The sad fact is this presidency is going to take a monster toll on whomever wins it. It is a notorious fact that men age at an incredible pace under the strain. Now the Republicans would have you put into office a man who has many years under his belt and many wrong sided ideas in relation to our nation! Moreover they would have you believe that Sarah Palin would be a step forward for women! Well gosh you betcha! Isn't that something... the most inexperienced president ever potentially.. and oddly enough... a woman who wants to take away womens rights! Way to pick 'er McCain. Cute and feisty and judgemental and anti womens' rights and pro her own personal power ambitions.
My entire life I have seen the Republicans take power claiming that they would get spending under control and diminish the control and reach of government. Without fail they have driven us into radical amounts of debt while reducing taxes which any idiot can tell you is stupid math! They have sent us to war multiple times to disastrous result and cost! They have helped to create this vast disparity in wealth in this nation and given unforgivable amounts of financial favor to those with the most! Corporate welfare! Yay! And oh yeah!! Screw the welfare moms! Damned socialist women! Healthcare! Who needs it! To hell with dignity! That is the Repbublican mindset. They have controlled the congress and or the presidency for the best part of the past 28 years!
We, as Democrats had 8 years with Bill Clinton! Even with a Republican congress he grew business, reduced abortion rates, promoted education, increased the number of people moving off the poverty rolls. We must stand firm to our ideals and we must vote! :I BEG ALL YOUNG PEOPLE EVERYWHERE!!!! PLEASE VOTE!!!! Multiple elections have been lost because that youth vote that registered did not bother to follow through! Please know that your age group can indeed decide this election! The older generations are the most reliable in terms of showing up and making the difference! This time!!! this one time!!!! Please please please.... be there to make that difference... be there to shape your future and to speak on behalf of your generation! It is time we build an economy on a green foundation and you can do it! You can help your nation be that which you would dream it to be!! Vote for the future... tough road that it is. Vote for your country and your world and your children and their children! Vote OBAMA!!!! just vote!

A significant amount of voting is now done before polling day in the US, and could have influenced the outcome in some key "battleground" states in recent elections, from the sound of it. Does anyone know how much "early" voting is being done and where?

Also, having just watched the astonishingly biased "commentary" on Faux News, has anyone studied the effects of this propaganda machine on voting behaviour?

PS Your election is so much more exciting than our own (on 8 November).

Early voting allowed in MANY states!
Good summary here:
http://earlyvoting.net/states/abslaws.php
Don't know the numbers turning up, though - hard to gauge til they tally them up!
Peter: if, God forbid, McCain wins, I'm moving to NZ.