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Morning Status Update for 9/29

Topics: Status Update

Welcome to what political consultants call "Week 5" (the fifth calender week before the election). Partly because I reported in the last afternoon on Friday, and partly because few statewide pollsters interviewed on Friday, we have logged just nine new statewide polls since my last update.  As such, we have not much to report, especially in the battleground states. 

The only new survey we logged in a battleground state over the weekend was a new release from the Democratic firm Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner in Michigan. While that survey shows a only two-point improvement for Obama on the margin, it confirms and extends the upward trend for Obama in Michigan evident on recent surveys.

2008-09-29 trends.jpg

The national forces graphs show only slight change since late Friday. The Obama-minus-McCain margin on the state national forces trend line (based on a mash-up of all state polls) shows a very slight drop, mostly because of new surveys from Friday and over the weekend in less frequently poll blue states, such as Oregon, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island, all showing slightly tighter margins since the conventions.


2008-09-29_NationalForces.png2008-09-29_BluesRedsSwingAndTU.png

 

Comments
drdr:

Thank you for your insightful analysis.

Now that early voting is going on in multiple states, how will pollsters incorporate this information? Polling in those states is now a combination of opinion survey and exit-type polling. Are the responses of voters who say they have already voted weighted differently from those who plan to vote on election day? It seems that there should at least be an adjustment in the likely voter screen for those who say they have cast early ballots.

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tim:

Any idea why the GW/Battleground tracking poll has consistently shown McCain 1-2 points ahead for the past week, while the other tracking polls have shown Obama 4-6 points ahead?
Tim

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bythesea:

The national trend line that is moving towards Obama isn't trickling down to the states, at least not the ones he needs. The Pollster trend lines for Minn, NH, Ohio, Pa, and Wisc are all moving towards McCain. If this continues we'll have another 2000 with one candidate winning the popular vote and another winning the electoral colege.

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thoughtful:

@Mark

Outstanding analysis.

The Polls out today and tomorrow should reflect Obama's National lead.

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