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Morning Status Update for Friday 10/24

Topics: Status Update

Yesterday's new polls helped solidify Barack Obama's standing on our electoral map, although the most recent updates and national tracking polls showing relative stability in the race. Still, with Ohio shifting to the lean Obama column, we now show 306 electoral votes in the Obama column, and 268 electoral votes -- just two shy of the 270 needed to win -- now in the strong Obama column.

Of 29 new statewide polls we logged yesterday, the most recent updates indicate no consistent trend. Six (6) of the new polls are updates by previous tracking surveys by the same pollster earlier in October. Of these, 3 show gains for Obama, 2 shows gains for McCain and the margin on one is unchanged. If we include the three updates from Quinnipiac University from previous tracks fielded in late September, the tally is 4 up for Obama, 3 up for McCain, one unchanged.

However, Obama's performance on three new Allstate/National Journal surveys, and seven new "Big 10" Surveys in midwestern states (the latter representing updates from surveys conducted just after the peak of McCain's post convention bump peaked in mid-September), have a greater impact on our trend estimates.

081024 todays.png

The net impact of the new surveys on our trend estimates is virtually all good news for Obama, expanding his margins over McCain in 11 of 12 battleground states.

081024 trends

The one exception to the overall trend is Pennsylvania, where we logged five (yes five) new surveys yesterday. The results are remarkably consistent, showing Obama with leads of 10 to 13 percentage points and 51% to 53% of the vote. The new surveys narrow Obama's margin on our trend estimate to 13.4% (52.9% to 39.5%). The margin is just over two points narrower, but still comfortably in the "strong" Obama category.

Two new surveys in Ohio from Quinnipiac and Big Ten, both show Obama leading by double-digits, margins far greater than other recent Ohio polls. Their impact on the trend estimate is a 2.8-point jump in Obama's Ohio margin there -- he now leads by 4 points (49.5% to 45.5%) -- enough to shift Ohio and its 20 electoral votes to the "lean" Obama column.

Three new surveys in Minnesota also show Obama ahead by double digits, expanding his trend estimate there by nearly two percentage points (to +8.8%, 51.4% to 42.6%), enough to shift Minnesota's 10 electoral votes to "strong" Obama.

In Michigan, the new Big Ten survey showing Obama with a crushing 22 point lead is also the first new survey there in two weeks. That scenario gives the new survey great influence in the way the regression trend line plots, so it increases Obama's margin by an almost ridiculous 5.9 points in one day. Still, notice that our trend line is still cautious about the most recent polls, drawing the Obama line just below his recent results and the McCain line just above his.

A new Wesleyan University poll in West Virginia, showing McCain leading by five points, helps narrow his lead there slightly, though I had neglected to notice that new polls from Wednesday shifted West Virginia to the strong McCain classification.

Today's results may represent a momentary high water mark, given some of the surprisingly positive results for Obama released yesterday, but it's worth taking note of Obama's current dominance on the electoral map. Our strong Obama classification (typically involving leads of eight points or more) now accounts for 268 electoral votes, just two short of the 270 needed to win. We show another four states, representing 38 more electoral votes, in lean the lean Obama column, for a total of 306. And Obama has a nominal lead in five of the remaining seven states classified as "toss-ups."

Yesterday's national trackers were a picture of statistical noise, as noted previously (3 up slightly for Obama, 2 up slightly for McCain, 3 unchanged). While Obama's margin increased slightly again yesterday -- for the fifth straight day -- the more recent twitches in the national trend may represent the impact of the brief lull in non-tracker national surveys last week. The trend for the national trackers (in the chart below) has flat-lined over the last two weeks.

Trend in the 8 National Tracking Polls:

 

Comments

agree about the trackers... I wonder if it's time to set the sensitivity on 'high' for those playing with the pollster.com graphs.

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Thatcher:

@Mark B -

Did you hear about voter registration in MI, BTW?

http://www.freep.com/article/20081023/NEWS15/810230422/1215/NEWS15

Figures released Wednesday show the state has added 328,000 voters since January, reaching a new registration record just under 7.5 million Michiganders -- about 98% of those eligible.

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Vicente Duque:


Mark Blumenthal says :

"Yesterday's new polls helped solidify Barack Obama's standing on our electoral map, although the most recent updates and national tracking polls showing relative stability in the race."

Mark that is true, for pollsters, but not for the bettors of money in the Five Super Dangerous Toss Up States.

**********

Bellwethers of a VERY BIG LANDSLIDE FOR OBAMA

Solid Market Indicators of a Big Obama Triumph

Look at these prices to win $100 in INTRADE :

Toss Up States for Obama :

Missouri (11EVs) ......... Obama 64.0, McCain 32.0
North Carolina (15EVs) .. Obama 72.0 McCain 35.0
Indiana (11EVs) ........... Obama 52.5, McCain 47.2

Toss Up States for McCain :

North Dakota (3EVs) ..... Obama 40.0, McCain 63.0
Montana (3EVs) ........... Obama 41.8, McCain 60.5

In the Betting Market all the other toss up states are secure for Obama with prices over the $69.9 Obama-Florida

The Five Super Dangerous Toss Ups are increasing in incredible Quantum Leaps, from Yesterday Thursday to Friday.

Nobody would have given a damn for Obama in those five states two or three weeks ago.

Add the Gargantuan Orgy of Early Voting in Toss Up States. With Dems 2 to 1 over Reps.

http://tossUpStates.blogspot.com/

http://milenials.blogspot.com/

Vicente Duque

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GlassHalfFull:

Here is some purely statistical information. I am not trying to spin this for either candidate, just taking the polls right now and extrapolating variations:

RIGHT NOW, Obama leads by an average of about 6 points nationally (counting those weird outliers). In addition to winning all of Kerry's states easily, he is ahead in ten states that Bush carried in 2004. Electoral college would be 375-163. This is not spin - just what the numbers are showing.

If Obama's popular vote lead shrinks to 4%, he still wins 364-174.

If Obama's popular vote lead shrinks to 2%, he still wins 306-232.

In a virtual popular vote tie, Obama wins 286-252.

EVEN IF McCain somehow wins the popular vote by 1%, Obama still ends up with a 272-266 win.

There is absolutely no way that McCain can lose the popular vote and win in the electoral college - the map just isn't there. I do understand why he's still campaigning in PA, even though he's so far behind. When you come right down to it, he has no choice. Without PA, he has virtually no chance. Which means (sorry) he has virtually no chance.

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George Not Bush:

Note that the Fed is considering a further rate
reduction from 1.5%. One big problem is there's not much lower to go; so, yep, there might be a couple more 1/4% rate cuts.

Contrast this to the normal election cycle where Fed rate cuts are normally made about 18 months ahead of the election to juice up the economy and make voters feel good -- followed by rate increases beginning in May/June of an election year to about January/March of the subsequent year.

The economy then takes a dip in the inauguration year as higher rates take effect.

The current regime makes much of creating its own reality, but the laws of arithmetic have been making themselves felt; i.e. the economy is sliding off the road and the voters are choosing Obama to drive the tow truck.

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Eleven more days. Let's hope Obama can begin to lead this country as soon as possible. The problem with this horse race is that important issues are still ongoing and aren't getting the attention they need.

For example, this Republican Hero. I trust Barack Obama to fill the thousands of positions with people like this.

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Eleven more days. Let's hope Obama can begin to lead this country as soon as possible. The problem with this horse race is that important issues are still ongoing and aren't getting the attention they need.

For example, this Republican Hero. I trust Barack Obama to fill the thousands of positions with people like this.

____________________

fuzzyone:

FYI the WV poll is from West Virginia Wesleyan College, not Wesleyan University, which is in Connecticut.

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