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Morning Status Update for Saturday (10/25)


A very busy Friday brings 21 new statewide polls and three new stand-alone national surveys in addition to the eight daily trackers. With the possible exception of the national trend, the net impact on where the race stands is virtually nil. Looking at them collectively, the most recent polls suggest that vote preferences are holding steady.

Ten of the 21 new statewide polls represent updates from previous surveys by the same pollster conducted earlier in October. Four of these show slight movement to Barack Obama, six show slight movement to John McCain. The new national releases, as compared to the previous sample with non-overlapping field dates, shows the same, mostly random pattern.

081025 new polls.png

The net impact of the new surveys on our trend estimates in battleground states is similarly random. The margins shifted slightly in Obama's direction in five states and in McCain's direction in four. Over the last week, there is a hint of improvement for Obama, as the margins in 12 states shift slightly to Obama and 6 slightly to McCain.


081025 trends.png

Please keep in mind that the estimate numbers in the table above --and the status classifications -- will likely change during the course of the day as we add new polls. So if you're reading this late in the day, the numbers on the map may not match this table.

Speaking of which, after noting the shift of Virginia to dark blue, "strong" Obama status in yesterday's update, the new Winthrop/ETV poll, showing Obama with a one-point advantage (45% to 44%) nudged the estimates enough in McCain's direction to move Virginia back to the "lean" Obama column.

Movement on our current national trend indicates that any "narrowing" of the margin seen earlier this week was either temporary or an artifact of the brief lull in non-daily-tracker national poll releases just before and after the third debate. Having said that, Obama's margin on our trend estimate (+8.7% as of this writing) is the largest we have seen to date.

 

Comments
Dave Barnes:

Only 10 days to go.

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green baby green:

Mark,

That poll from Winthrop was taken overthe period of about a month so I don't think it should be used in your poll averages.

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geek:

I am not a political expert not that one exists. Looking a poll data, reading newspapers and sorting out trends is both an art and a science.

With that as a backdrop my risky but thoughtful pick for this election is Georgia which may very well vote democratic for President and elect a Democratic Senator.

I could expand on my rationale for this bold forecast, but analysis suggests this is feasible outcome.

The old cliche that it all depends on voter turnout is very much at work in the State of Georgia.


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girloftheseas:

When will people learn that national polls are useless? Gore won the popular vote in 2000, but he didn't win the presidency. Because of the electoral college system, the critical polls are the toss up states polls.

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girloftheseas:

Also, we need to know whether these polls were of likely voters or registered voters, including cell phone users or not, random sample or something else, to determine these polls validity.

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douglasdao:

National polls are not worthless, because they do give us a general sense of the nation's mood. Yes, they are less important than specific state polls, but not worthless.

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gildenhorn:

Seems to me that the trend analysis is most important at this late date. According to the latest table, if Obama just wins all the states that are strongly leaning Democratic (the dark blue ones), he will be within 15 electors of wrapping this up. Then, all he has to do is get the remaining 15 electors he will need from any of the states that are already trending Democratic (from among 51 available), or this same number from the toss-up states (75 electors available), and he will have won. These figures, I would assert with great caution, could be enough to offset the "Bradley Effect," should it materialize. That said, no supporter of Obama should relax for even a second. There may still be an "October" (or even a "November") surprise in store.

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Los Angeles Times :
Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico for Obama.

According to the Los Angeles Times, October 25, there is a big probability that Latinos will deliver the three Southwest toss ups to Obama.

Without Latinos McCain wins, enter the Hispanics and McCain loses.

Read a very informative article :

Economic strife drives Latino vote
By Marjorie Miller, October 25, 2008
Los Angeles Times staff writer

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-latinos26-2008oct26,0,530121.story

I am specializing in studying Blacks, Latinos, Asians, Ethnics, Racials, Multiracials and their voting patterns. Also Youth.

Vicente Duque

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