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Morning Status Update for Sunday 10/19

Topics: Status Update

Saturdays are typically slow for new statewide poll releases, but with Election Day just two weeks away, new surveys yesterday from PPP and Daily Kos/Research 2000 are worthy of an update. In particular, a new West Virginia survey from PPP helps move West Virginia and its five electoral votes back into the lean McCain column.

081019 daily.png

The new West Virginia poll from PPP is only the third there this month and one of only seven since the conventions. It shows the McCain-Palin ticket leading Obama and Biden by eight points (50% to 42%) and shifts our trend estimate nearly four points in McCain's direction, to a 49.5% to 45.3% lead, just enough to qualify for lean McCain status on our map.

The new Kos/Research 2000 poll in Maine showing the Democrats leading by 17 points (55% to 38%) also has a big impact on our trend estimate, bumping the Obama lead up nearly four points -- enough to shift Maine into "strong Obama" dark blue. Maine is also a state with very few recent surveys, just two in October.

081019 trend

Normally, our trend estimates are "small-c" conservative, tending to minimize the impact of any individual poll, especially if it deviates significantly from the overall trend. However, as I noted when a new poll shifted West Virginia into the toss-up category a month ago, the scenario in states like West Virginia and Maine -- very few polls, and a new poll that represents a big difference from the previous polls -- makes our trend estimate more sensitive. In the the West Virginia example, the trend line is now largely ignoring an outlier value of 42% for McCain from ARG in early October, and basing the recent McCain trend on McCain results of 50%, 49% and 50% on the most recent Rasmussen, InsiderAdvantage and PPP polls respectively.

Obama's lead on the national popular vote trend has narrowed since earlier in the week. It was down to 5.2% (49.1% to 43.9%) when I generated the table above, (although two new daily updates from Rasmussen and DailyKos, entered as I was writing, widened it slightly back to 5.4% -- 49.4% to 43.9%). The first table above, which compares individual poll results for the national trackers to their last non-overlapping samples from earlier in the week, shows a tightening margin on four of the six this week. As I did yesterday , I will try to post an update later today when we have the results from all six tracking polls that release on the weekend.



Thanks again for the update. It'd be terrific to see the 'getting to 270 for McCain' post updated regularly, by the way. I assume it won't change much, but it'd be great to know that for certain.


George Not Bush:

[quote]It'd be terrific to see the 'getting to 270 for McCain' post updated regularly, by the way.[/quote]All you have to do is look at the [b]Trend Estimate for Battleground States[/b] and look where the cmulative count for Obama goes below 270. Today that's between Colorado and Virginia. Obama would have to drop between 4.2 and 6.4% in [b]all[/b] of Florida, Virginia, Minnesota and New Hampshire plus lose all but 11 EV worth of the tossup states for McCain to win.

Put another way, if Obama wins all the states where this site gives him a lead of 6.7% or better, he only needs to pick up 11 more EVs out of 9 states where he is leading to win.




I am concerned, I live in Virginia in the city of Falls Church (a very blue part of Northern Virginia) and here we are celebrating and patting each other on the back, the current polling has Obama up 6.4% then every now and again doubt creeps in. In 2004 Virginia went 8% for Bush... a 14% swing in 4 years, what is the difference in the poll weighting between now and then?

I remember in 2004 how the ground game was going to put Ohio over the top for us Dems and according to the post data we actually achieved record turnout that would have won any other election except 2004 because Republicans had even greater turnout... but this is 2008, Obama has money and volunteer advantages and greater intensity, right?

What has me concerned is when one projects the leads in the battleground states to the National Polls, it doesn't seem to add up and it projects a win for Obama at a minimum on the par of George H.W. Bush in 1988 yet I heard John Zogby state Obama hasn't sealed the deal and is currently stuck at traditional 48-49% level.

I have a feeling that the Republicans are just as motivated and historically seem to be more self motivated than Democrats. There is one other thing, Joe the Plumber which is really to say the Hillary factor, I just finished building a house and my carpenter a staunch Hillary supporter who lives in Winchester VA (Appalachia), thinks Obama is a lightweight and will vote McCain. Do pollsters get to these people?




as far as ground game is concerned, Obama campaign is the most excellent one...

BTW, in VA primary, he outperformed polls by double digits... I think that was due to strong turnout of AA and young people.
I feel very confident of VA more than CO,OH, FL.



From what I can tell, Republicans are coming back to McCain, hence his gains. I don't know what Powell's Endorsement will do to that trend, but it can't help McCain.



Yeah, the Republicans are again more or less excited about the ticket. Obama has still a huge advantage in the electoral college so something really dramatic has to happen in order for McCain to win. This slow movement will hit its ceiling pretty soon and might already have.



I'm just posting to note again that the trackers have really taken over the national chart. I'm still curious to see what happens when we get a new wave of non-trackers.


That One:

I’m an independent voting for Obama and here’s why:

I consider myself to be philosophically a libertarian who believes in small government because I believe people are naturally good and will do good things on their own. However, I don’t believe in a lazy and stupid government. Government can be small and still be smart, active, and strategic. This is something some small-government Republicans don’t seem to grasp. George W. Bush (and his administration) epitomizes this when it comes to economic policy and other critical issues. A government needs be lean and mean. Americans, especially those on the right, need to wake up to this.

If Obama is nothing else he is smart, active, and strategic. Even if you disagree with his policies you have to admit that much is true. He surely is no champion of small government. But, I’d rather have a big, smart, strategic government than a slightly-smaller government that has no interest and no idea how to solve the long term challenges this country faces. We need to realize that our economy is fundamentally out-of-balance as we import too much, our national debt is ballooning, and the vast majority of people are not prospering economically. We need to realize that our energy policy is a complete joke and that we’re going to have to transition to a off of oil before “peak oil” kills our economy and way of life. We need to begin thinking about how we can prevent disease and famine in a world with an increasing population that is being raped of it’s ecologically resources. The list goes on.

Do you know why a lot of republicans don’t believe in that our economy is fundamentally flawed? Do you know why many republicans don’t believe that oil scarcity is a problem? Do you know why many republicans don’t believe that environment is being savaged? I’ll tell you why. It’s because they believe that they’re conservative ideological beliefs, which are sensible in and of themselves, are the answer for everything. Think about how insane that is. They are so in love with these principles that they think any problem that cannot be solved by their principles must not exist. So, instead of working on solving the monumental issues stated previously, they’re working to eliminate the “estate tax” and keeping millionaires tax rate from going up a few percentage points. They’re trying to ban gay marriage and abortions. They want to extract the remaining oil we have left as quickly as possible. I’m not saying these are necessarily bad pursuits, but we’ve got WAY more important things to do. We used to deal with our major issues head-on. Somehow a large portion of our government stopped trying and turned to denial.

Does the size of government need to shrink? Yes. Will Obama shrink the size of government? No. BUT THIS IS NOT HIS MISSION. His mission is to get us to start thinking strategically, and to begin the process of solving some of these long term issues. Shrinking the government, while necessary, is incredibly difficult and will be a short term negative on our economy and our standard of living. (Although I do believe it will benefit us long term.) He won’t be able to do both at once. No one can. Let the next guy worry about shrinking the government. We have more pressing issues to deal with.

Is Obama going to solve all these problems? No. Are the Democrats as petty and political as the Republicans? Yes. But, I believe Obama is going to wake some people up. He’s going to get the conversation back to the important topics. He’s going to come up with some ideas and force the republicans to start coming up with their own. This is what we need – ideas and action from all sides. That’s what being a smart, strategic government and country is all about. Let’s make it happen.



ThatOne, great post.

I'm curious when those robo calls for McCain started in Maine and if that could've caused the uptick in Obama support recently. Maine residents even had to witness their republican congresswoman ask McCain to stop the robocalls, and she was his campaign cochair for Maine.
It just doesnt seem improbable that these calls could cause that.



The Republicans need to do a lot of soul-searching. Obama and the Democrats are NOT as far left as they say. If they believe that, they need to re-think. Obama will govern from the center. HOPEFULLY he will be able to rein in the House and Senate, and do what is best for the country. That is what he wants from everything I can tell. Events in the future will dictate a lot of what will happen. I don't have a crystal ball, but I can see the writing on the wall and Obama will win and the Republicans will have to go back, think, and come back to the political center where the Democrats are now.


To make every vote in every state politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

see http://www.NationalPopularVote.com



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