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Morning Status Update for Sunday (10/26)


Saturday remains a relatively slow day, even with just 10 days to go until the Election. We logged 16 new surveys yesterday, 9 statewide surveys and the 7 national daily tracking polls that report results over the weekend. Although two states changed color on our map, these few polls collectively provide little evidence of a significant shift nationally.

081026 new polls.png

A new PPP poll in Virginia shows Obama leading by 9 points (52% to 43%). It marks the 15th consecutive survey this month to show Obama with a mathematical lead in Virginia and helps, helps nudge the state back to dark blue "strong" Obama status (where it had been Friday morning).. If John McCain needs Virginia to win, and virtually every analysis says he does, his 8-point deficit to Obama on our trend estimate makes that task look very daunting.

The new Ohio Newspaper Poll from the University of Cincinnatti shows Obama leading by four points (49% to 46%), only slightly lower than on our current trend estimate for Ohio (49.6% to 45.2%). The results in Ohio have been more mixed than Virginia, but of 7 of 11 polls released in the last week show Obama with a nominal lead.

081026 trends

A new Research 2000/DailyKos (D) poll in South Dakota, showing McCain leading by nine points (50% to 41%), confirms a slightly narrower McCain margin (48% to 41%) reported earlier in the week by Mason-Dixon. Convinced by the new result. our trend estimate shifts enough to Obama to move South Dakota from strong to lean McCain.

Yesterday's national daily tracker results once again look like the perfect picture of random, trendless noise: None of the likely voter releases varied by more than a single percentage point from the previous day's results. Three surveys showed nominal movement to Obama, one to McCain and four showed unchanged margins.

trackers.xlsx.png

The latest release just in this morning from Zogby might lead you to believe otherwise. "McCain gains as race continues to tighten," the headline reads. The release tells us:

The race now stands at 49.4% to 44.1% in favor of Obama. Obama led McCain by 9.5 points in yesterday's report.

"There is no question that this race continues to tighten and that McCain is finding his message again," said Pollster John Zogby. "It is after all about the economy and that is how McCain tightened it up the last time. I have said over and over again, when he focuses on extraneous issues, he screws up. In today's single day of polling, it was 49% to 46% in favor of Obama. McCain has moved his own numbers each of the three days and Obama has gone down from 54% to 50% to 49%

As regular Pollster commenter Thatcher points out via email, single day results of 54%, 50% and 49% for Obama cannot possibly average to 49.4%. What is more likely is that Obama received 54% on Wednesday's calling, 50% on Thursday and 49% on both Friday and Saturday. Those numbers would be consistent with today's numbers and would tend to explain the gradual rise and fall in Obama's margin on Zogby's poll over the last week. More important: The story here is less likely a "tightening" race than a regression to Zogby's mean after an outlier result in Obama's favor Wednesday night.

Update: Zogby's communications director Fritz Wenzel emails with a clarification.  The one-night 54% result for Obama did occur on Wednesday night:  "The 54% on Wednesday dropped off and was replaced with a 49%. that explains the drop. The rolling three-day average of a 49, 50, 49 is 49.4."

 

Comments
carl29:

I think Zogby is scared to death about blowing his reputation off. He wants to stay within Rasmussen and Gallup.

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I also believe that Zogby is not weighting properly for African-American and Latino voters, two groups that are quite energized to get out and vote (the Los Angeles Times published a very interesting piece today on Latino voters and the impact we will have in Western states in Obama's favor). All we need to do is to look at the early voting trends to see that the "likely voter" model may be in need of re-tooling.

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RWCOLE:

Nate at 538 claims that Zogby is using a model that generates and equal number of dem and republican voters- if so- that explains his results I suppose.

Zogby's comments on his own numbers suggest that he's living in an insulated reality or that he's in the tank for McCain- don't know which. He HAS to know that he's an outlier in this recent trend.

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wagthedog1001:

Obama drew a crowd of 100,000 again today. This time in Denver, Colorado, an historically RED state. Yesterday he had a crowd of 65,000 in Albuquerque. McCain and Palin have been in Colorado this past week drawing crowds of far less than 10,000.

I know crowds don't reflect scientific preferences, but it seems to me they are a pretty good indicator of what's going on west of the Mississippi these days.

The pollsters can debate numbers all they want. The people will decide November 4th.

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Vicente Duque:

I agree with Daniel Olivas that we have not factored the Racial Voters in all their power. They are not easy to capture in Polls.

But look at the long lines for early voting in Florida and the enthusiasm in the Southwest as reported by the Miami Herald and the Los Angeles Times.

The Economic Pain in Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico is prodding the Newly Registered Voters.

And Hillary and Bill are a great factor in the mentioned States and are working hard.

What about the "Anchorage Daily News" ( Alaska ) and the "Des Moines Register" ( Iowa ) just Endorsing Obama.

The New York Times has an article

"In Defense of White Americans", By FRANK RICH
Published: October 25, 2008

This is a superb article, it has literary and intellectual quality. There is Racism still out there. But if Mr Rich is right. Then McCain is liquidated.

I bet that Mr Rich is right and we are witnessing and avalanche of white voters for Obama. We are not going to believe it.

http://tossUpStates.blogspot.com/

http://milenials.blogspot.com/

Vicente Duque

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