Mark Blumenthal | October 28, 2008
Topics: Status Update
Today's update is posting a little earlier and is slightly abbreviated (for reasons that will be clear in the next post).
We had what I believe is a new one-day record for new statewide poll releases (37), but if you are looking for evidence of "tightening" you won't find it here. Fifteen of today's polls represented updates from the same pollster from previous tracks conducted earlier in October: Eight (8) of the 15 showed a nominal shift in Obama's direction, 7 in McCain's direction and 1 showed no change in margin.
The best evidence of stability in the race comes from four new surveys in Florida, four in Missouri, two in Ohio and five in Virginia that collectively leave the margins in each state within a few decimal points of where it was yesterday. Needless to say, the McCain campaign has little hope without a significant narrowing this week in states like Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Ohio.
Once again, the pattern of change is mostly random: Of 13 competitive states showing any change in margin today, seven showed slight shits to McCain and six showed slight shifts to Obama.
The eight daily trackers again showed mostly random movement. Of those that reported yesterday (which excluded the Battleground survey which does not interview on Friday or Saturday), three polls showed nominal shifts to McCain, two to Obama and three showed unchanged margins.