Mark Blumenthal | October 29, 2008
Topics: Outliers Feature
The 24 new statewide and 10 new national surveys we logged yesterday show stability and some consolidation of Barack Obama's standing at the state level and perhaps a whisper of a narrowing in the national tracking polls.
Of the 24 new statewide polls, 8 were tracking surveys following up on earlier releases by the same pollsters earlier in the month. The pattern of change is random: 4 show slight increases for Obama, 4 show slight increases for McCain.
Two new surveys show Obama leading in Nevada. Rasmussen Reports has Obama ahead by 4 (50% to 46%) and Suffolk University by 10 (50% to 40%). Both margins are bigger than our previous trend estimate for Nevada (+3.6), and they collectively increase Obama's lead on it to 4.7 points (49.7% to 45.0%), enough to nudge Nevada and its 5 electoral votes into the light blue "lean" Obama category.
In Pennsylvania, where the McCain-Palin ticket has been expending more time this week, two new automated surveys by Rasmussen and Insider Advantage both show Obama leading but by less than ten points. These two new results narrow Obama's lead on our trend estimate to 10.7%, with Obama still over 50 (52.0% to McCain's 41.3%), still enough to merit a "strong" Obama rating. Nonetheless, the 4.6 point narrowing there over the last week there represents the one significant narrowing for McCain over the last week. (Yesterday's rolling average tracking results for Pennsylvania from Muhlenberg University, added to our database too late for this update, shows Obama's support unchanged at 53% and McCain clicking up a point to 42% -- the 11 point margin on that survey is unchanged from a week ago).
In Ohio, two new polls from SurveyUSA and L.A. Times/Bloomberg show Obama leading by 4 and 9 percentage points respectively. Of ten surveys released in Ohio over the last week, 9 have given Obama leads ranging from 3 to 12 percentage points. Over the last week, Obama has gained nearly 5 points on our trend estimate there and now leads by 5.6 percentage points (49.7% to 44.1%).
Overall, yesterday's new surveys increase Obama's margins in 10 competitive states and McCain's in only 3.
Obama's lead on our national trend estimate has narrowed slightly over the last three days days (it now stands at 6.7 point -- 50.6% to 43.9%). However, the pattern is similar to what we saw last week, as releases by the stand-alone national surveys slowed and our daily number tends to be dominated by the tracking polls, including the four national pollsters that tend to show the closest margins (Rasmussen, IBD-TIPP, Zogby and GWU/Battleground).
Nonetheless, the individual daily trackers do suggest a hint of a narrowing in recent days. Three showed slight movement to McCain yesterday while four showed unchanged margins. Over the last week, five pollsters show slight improvement for McCain and three show slight shifts to Obama.
A personal note: I have been offline altogether for the last 24 hours, and as such have not yet attempted to sort through the deluge of email I received yesterday. However, my family saw and was gratified by the many comments left on yesterday's post about the passing of my father-in-law, Frank Burstin. The beautiful tributes from from so many who never knew him were of great comfort. We offer our profound thanks for your kindness.