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Morning Update for 10/1


We have logged another dozen new statewide polls in the last 24 hours. Eight of these represent updates since the previous week or mid-September, and seven of the eight show movement toward Obama or away from McCain. Although none of the shifts were large enough to cause a change in status, the new surveys narrowed McCain's lead on our trend estimates by at least a half a percentage point in Ohio (+0.8), Florida (+0.6) and Indiana (+0.5).

2008-10-01 trend.jpg

The continuing movement in Obama's direction is evident on both the national and "all state poll" trend lines on the national forces chart (although Professor Franklin updated these mid-day yesterday.

2008-10-01_NationalForces.png

 

2008-10-01_BluesRedsSwingAndTU.png

 

Comments
Gary:

One thing about Wisconsin people have to remember. It went democrat by only 0.2% and 0.4% in the last two elections. Wisconsin will always be a toss up state. The fact that Obama at this point is polling 4% ahead represents a relative landslide.

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The traders investors or gamblers at INTRADE are not favoring McCain so much in some toss up states as the daily polls.

Those traders are reading the polls everyday, of course. I suspect that traders have "insider information", what we do not know because we do not live there.

Computer Simulations based on INTRADE data are extremely pro Obama right now, and give little chance to McCain of winning this election.

Vicente Duque

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Allen:

Computer Simulations based on INTRADE data are extremely pro Obama right now...

Any prediction of the Nov 4 outcome that assumes the state outcomes are independent will overstate the leader's margin. Obama's lead in the polls has not yet translated into an overwhelming electoral vote lead, but it may soon. See http://election-projection.net

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