Mark Blumenthal | October 4, 2008
Topics: Status Update
The pace of new polls finally slowed a bit on Friday. We entered just six new statewide surveys yesterday, and coincidentally, all were from states currently classified as "toss-up" or "lean" on our map. Although none of the new polls changed our classifications, leaving Obama leading by the same 250 to 163 electoral vote margin on our map as yesterday, we see continuing evidence of movement in the Democrat's direction.
The new surveys show the same pattern we have seen all week. Of those that track prior surveys in September, all but one of the statewide surveys and four of the five national trackers show movement in Obama's direction.
The new polls nudge our statewide estimates in Obama's direction in New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania, and in McCain's direction in Minnesota. Note that the polls of the last week have flipped from showing either a tie or McCain ahead to Obama ahead in five states -- Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia -- although the margins in all five states remain very close and very much in the toss-up category.
Nate Silver highlights a good point made by Markos Moulitsas (Daily Kos) good point about Minnesota, the one state where a new poll from SurveyUSA shows movement to McCain. Moulitsas published television advertising data showing McCain outspending Obama by a three-to-one margin ($202,000 to $66,000 -- he didn't specify the time period or the source). Elsewhere in the battleground states, Obama's spending advantage approaching three to one.
Finally, note that we see continuing movement on our national trend chart. Obama's advantage as of this writing is 7 points (49.6% to 42.6%).