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Morning Update for 10/4

Topics: Status Update

The pace of new polls finally slowed a bit on Friday. We entered just six new statewide surveys yesterday, and coincidentally, all were from states currently classified as "toss-up" or "lean" on our map. Although none of the new polls changed our classifications, leaving Obama leading by the same 250 to 163 electoral vote margin on our map as yesterday, we see continuing evidence of movement in the Democrat's direction.

The new surveys show the same pattern we have seen all week. Of those that track prior surveys in September, all but one of the statewide surveys and four of the five national trackers show movement in Obama's direction.


2008-10-04 new polls

The new polls nudge our statewide estimates in Obama's direction in New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania, and in McCain's direction in Minnesota. Note that the polls of the last week have flipped from showing either a tie or McCain ahead to Obama ahead in five states -- Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia -- although the margins in all five states remain very close and very much in the toss-up category.


2008-10-04 trends

Nate Silver highlights a good point made by Markos Moulitsas (Daily Kos) good point about Minnesota, the one state where a new poll from SurveyUSA shows movement to McCain. Moulitsas published television advertising data showing McCain outspending Obama by a three-to-one margin ($202,000 to $66,000 -- he didn't specify the time period or the source). Elsewhere in the battleground states, Obama's spending advantage approaching three to one.

Finally, note that we see continuing movement on our national trend chart. Obama's advantage as of this writing is 7 points (49.6% to 42.6%).

 

Comments

The Daily Kos/R2K tracker today suggests erosion for McCain with 60+ voters and with women.

Women were +9 for Obama on 9/11 and are now +26.

60+ voters were +15 for McCain on 9/11 and now are +2.

We've also picked up not only the (now) well known Palin drop in fav/unfav, but we now see it for McCain as well (trends in all cases more important than absolute numbers.)

Wherever possible, look at the internals in the other polls.

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Adrian B:

It seems that the polls have stabilised with the lower outlier being +3 Obama and the upper outlier being +8 Obama, with everyone else in the +5-7 Obama range.

And didn't someone say it was going to be a tie by this weekend??

Although I guess it is a tie - if you dismiss all the other polls, including the beloved Rasmussen, only count the lower outlier and then argue about the margin of error! (But then the margin of error works both ways and that could also mean +6 Obama .... Doh!!)

I reckon the average will probably stay around +6 give or take 2 points (lower when the really nasty dirt starts getting thrown first thing Monday) - but bar any major surprises/world events, it looks like this may be the way things settle.

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gypsyl:

Minneapolis Star Tribune has an article this morning placing Franken at 43, Colman at 34 and Barkley at 18, as a result of their poll. This shift is being attributed to Obama coattails and an increasing dissatisfaction with negative Repub advertising.

Im surprised the margin is that large but we've seen similar national polls do that lately. I've never believed that Minnesota is truly a swing state, more like light blue.

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cinnamonape:

Mark, Don't miss the release of the results in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune that should come out tomorrow. They released the Franken results today, but they always survey that same sample for Presidential preferences. If you go to that article they sort of give a "tell" as to what the results will be.

"The Minnesota Poll results suggest Franken may be riding the coattails of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, who has [also] widened a lead over Republican John McCain in polls across the country."

So expect a big bounce for Obama, probably greater than the difference they found between Al and Norm.

They also point out this shocking stat:

"The poll detected a significant increase in Minnesotans who label themselves as Democrats. Forty-two percent of likely voters identified themselves as Democrats, compared with 27 percent who said they were independents, and 26 percent who said they were Republicans."


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Jeff L:

Mark -

I have a question about how you handle the potential for an EV to split off in Maine. As you know, McCain is putting more resources into Maine's 2nd CD. In the last 2 elections the 2nd CD has been less Democratic than the state as a whole by 2.2% in 2000 and 3.2% in 2004.

Currently you are showing a 7.1% advantage for Obama. If the 2nd CD shows a similar pattern to the last 2 elections, you'd expect Obama to be up by 4-5% in the 2nd. If that is the case would you put the 1 EV in the toss-up range?

Also, is there any polling data that splits out the 2 CDs?

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brambster:

Regarding SurveyUSA and Minnesota, they have generally been polling more so in McCain's favor that other polls during the same time frame. I noted this a long time ago, and the pattern has not changed at all.

My guess is that they have a problem with their demographic weighting for this state.

I believe that Obama is comfortably ahead in Minnesota. I certainly wouldn't expect to see Obama taking Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa by 10 or so points only to lose or even come really close in Minnesota.

Then again, Palin does have almost the same accent and maybe that plays well in Minnesota :)

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